TOPIC 4
Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning
Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts
Jim Davidson
Richard Murnane – Bill Read – Lixion Avila - ST Chan
Linda Anderson-Berry – David King - Ryan Crompton
TOPIC 4
Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning
Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts
Jim Davidson
Richard Murnane – Bill Read – Lixion Avila - ST Chan
Linda Anderson-Berry – David King - Ryan Crompton
IWTC-VII November 2010
Risk Assessment
Disaster Mitigation Strategies
Operational Warning Strategies
Societal Impacts of TCs
Economic Impacts of TCs
Risk Assessment (Murnane)
Risk assessment using Catastrophe Risk (CAT) Models
These models are generally location specific & probabilistic – and developed mainly for the (re)insurance industry
No freely available global-scale CAT Model is available – such a model would benefit a range of stakeholders Advocates better collaboration between the atmospheric science and civil engineering communities
Further recommends developing (a) a set of (multi-basin) hazard catalogs and vulnerability functions for all TC
hazards and (b) a public domain database of bathymetric, topographic & surface roughness data for all TC regions
(Info on the societal & structural environment is also needed)
Economic Impacts of TCs (Crompton)
Approach provides an estimate of the total economic loss by normalising the losses to account for the effects of inflation, population growth, and changes in wealth – and can only be used if a relatively extensive historical record No definite long-term trends can be found in landfall
frequency & intensity – major TCs account for the vast majority of damage – the increase in observed losses is mainly due to coastal population growth & assets coupled with a lack of investment in risk reduction measures
No firm link found between losses and global warming but anthropogenic climate change to exacerbate future impacts Recommend open-source, peer-reviewed loss and landfall databases and better understanding of future risk given projected changes in climate and society demographics
Disaster Mitigation Strategies (Read/Avila)
Primary role of meteorologists in disaster mitigation is to continue to improve the quality of the TC warning service and to provide timely communication of the threat
Increasing risk to life and property associated with the steady movement of the population into cyclone-prone coastal areas and the consequential need for a range of non-meteorological disaster mitigation strategies, such as land use policy, building codes & public education programs Another growing challenge to emergency managers is the complexity and stressful nature of travelling on congested highways which might deter people’s willingness to evacuate
Operational Warning Strategies (Chan)
TC warning service seen as an end-to-end forecasting system from observations right through to dissemination End-users need to be informed of the inherent uncertainty in warnings and educated in understanding probability
High quality satellite coverage is a high operational priority Users must be engaged so that their requirements are
understood and matched by suitable products and delivery modes with a range of dissemination technologies available Paradigm shift towards weather impacts prediction,
Societal Impacts of TCs (Anderson-Berry)
Societal impacts are driven and determined by the vulnerability and resilience of people and communities
A high level of resilience will reduce both vulnerability and reliance on response and recovery agencies
Less a consequence of inadequate science & communication of warnings, than a complex set of issues surrounding
social change and migration to hazardous locations
Enhanced and targetted education programs are essential Storm surge and flooding are the greatest contributors to loss of life and property and therefore require greater emphasis in mitigation strategies and education programs
(reinforced by recommendations on land use planning
and educating people on safe evacuation strategies)
Topic Chair Summary
The most common theme across all the Topic 4 rapporteur reports is that unless appropriate action is taken around the world to address the growing concentration of people and wealth in cyclone-prone coastal areas, the potential for loss of life and high damage costs will greatly increase with time, perhaps moreso under a climate change scenario. At the same time, an effective tropical cyclone warning
service, combined with a range of non-meteorological disaster mitigation strategies and attractive financial incentives, are clearly the most potent mechanisms by which to achieve risk reduction.
Important too is the adoption of a multi-disciplinary
approach, with meteorologists, climate change scientists, engineers, social scientists, and emergency managers
working collaboratively towards the common goal of reducing the global impact of tropical cyclones.
Recommendations from IWTC-VI
Hazard Assessment and Mitigation
As a major initiative an international
database should be developed to track the
loss of human life and socio-economic impacts
of TCs as well as the costs associated with
TC forecasting and disaster mitigation
initiatives.
A small multi-disciplinary task
force should be formed to monitor the
development of the database and to liaise
with other groups with a similar goal.
Recommendations from IWTC-VI
Hazard Assessment and Mitigation
The IWTC recommends that the WMO
assists least-developed and developing
countries to engage in hazard assessment,
risk mapping, and TC simulation exercises,
especially in highly vulnerable coastal and
island areas.
Information derived could then
be used by NMHSs disaster managers, local
governments and communities to better
manage and strengthen national disaster and
mitigation plans. (slightly editted)
Recommendations from IWTC-VI
Hazard Assessment and Mitigation
More prominence should be given at the next
IWTC to the fields of disaster mitigation and
societal impacts.
This might be achieved by
interweaving those topics into the main
programme or promoting those sessions to the
start of proceedings.
Consideration should also
be given to inviting representatives of a wider
range of related disciplines to the workshop.
Recommendations from IWTC-VI
Hazard Assessment and Mitigation
Regional workshops should be conducted for
practitioners every 4 years (2 years out of
phase with the IWTCs) for the purpose of
advancing the Total Warning System concept
and the sharing of TC societal impact and
“Disaster Mitigation, Warning Systems and Societal Impact” Extracts from summary paper by M.C.Wong at IWTC-VI
Lack of comprehensive information on TC impacts in terms of human & economic losses – recommended establishment of a GIS compatible international disaster database to document these impacts – further recommended that a working group be set up to oversee the project
Recommended that socio-economic impact studies of landfalling TCs be conducted on a periodic basis – with results published to promote a culture of awareness
Resources should be targetted to support multi-disciplinary teams to survey the TC impact area and undertake case studies on the effectiveness of warning systems (incl public understanding of the warning message and dissemination) Economists to be engaged to work with the meteorological community in conducting a cost-benefit analysis of disaster mitigation policy (incl warning systems)
Prevention
Prevention Preparation
Response
Recovery
IMPACT
Forecasts & Warnings for the Impact Area to aid the Response
Participation in Field & Community Surveys Community Education including Exercises Prediction & Early Warning Media Interviews and Advice to Disaster Managers Stakeholder Engagement Developing Partnerships Fostering a thriving Corporate Culture Capacity Building
End-to-end: NMHSs represented on multi-agency Disaster Management Committees
Davidson 2009
Risk/Hazard Assessments
Role of
Role of
NMHSs
NMHSs
in Disaster (Risk) Management
in Disaster (Risk) Management
Post-event Debriefs Event Report Preliminary Damage Assessment NMHS Performance Review
Mitigation
Restoration
Formulating a Risk Management (Contingency) Plan
Prevention
Prevention Preparation
Response
Recovery
Forecasts & Warnings for the Impact Area to aid the Response
Participation in Field & Community Surveys Community Education including Exercises Prediction & Early Warning Media Interviews and Advice to Disaster Managers Stakeholder Engagement Developing Partnerships Fostering a thriving Corporate Culture Capacity Building
End-to-end: NMHSs represented on multi-agency Disaster Management Committees
Davidson 2009
Risk/Hazard Assessments
Role of
Role of
NMHSs
NMHSs
in Disaster (Risk) Management
in Disaster (Risk) Management
Post-event Debriefs Event Report Preliminary Damage Assessment NMHS Performance Review
Mitigation
Restoration
Formulating a Risk Management (Contingency) Plan
Related Publications & WMO Initiatives
Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones From Science to Mitigation
Chapter 13 – “Disaster Mitigation and Societal Impacts”
David King
–Jim Davidson
–Linda Anderson-Berry
Guidelines on Early Warning Systems and Application of Nowcasting in Warning Operations (Updated “Integrating Severe Weather Warnings into Disaster Risk Management”)
Authored by the WMO PWS Expert Team in Support of
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
–Jim Davidson et al
“
R
educing
I
mpacts
Matters
Most”
Selection of Discussion Prompts
Consider a Multi-Disciplinary Approach (to almost everything in Topic 4 space) Disaster Mitigation Strategies
(Meteorological & Non-Meteorological) Managing Coastal Migration
Effective TC Warning Service
(Observations through to Dissemination) Range of Dissemination Technologies
Forecast Uncertainty & Probability
Strategies for NMHS user engagement (suitable products & delivery modes) Public Education/Outreach Programs
Reaching Isolated/Vulnerable Communities Field & Community Post-Impact Surveys Trending to Weather Impacts Prediction
“
R
educing
I
mpacts
Matters
Most”
Selection of Discussion Prompts
Consider a Multi-Disciplinary Approach (to almost everything in Topic 4 space) Cat (Risk) Models & Normalised Losses Requirement for Databases and Catalogs (eg Hazards, Vulnerabilities, Bathymetry) Consideration of financial incentives to invest in vulnerability reduction measures Role of the (Re)Insurance Sector
Greatest Threats & Biggest Impacts (Storm Surge, Flooding & Mudslides) Factoring in Climate Change
Opportunities for more Interagency Collaboration (eg TIGGE & SWFDP) Common Goal is to significantly reduce the global impact of TCs through the combined efforts of IWTC community
TOPIC 4
Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning
Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts
“Increasing exposure and higher climate variability means thatlong-term disaster mitigation strategies and the financing of disaster risks must become critical planning elements in cyclone-prone countries to assure sustainable development”
