Framework for estimating flood damage

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Framework for estimating flood damage

and evaluating flood management in Japan

11 December 2013

Masahiko Murase

Chief Researcher

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

Management (ICHARM) Public Work Research Institute

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1. Introduction

2. Disasters in Japan

• Background

• Flood Damage Statistics Survey

• Utilization of the Flood Damage Statistics

• Varied Damage

3. Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan

• Background

• Structure

• Method

• Coverage

4. Way forward

1

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1.Introduction

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1. Introduction

Key questions of today’s presentation

Disasters in Japan

Why are the governments encouraged to conduct

・

Why are the governments encouraged to conduct

post-disaster surveys?

Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan

・

How are the economic analysis incorporated into

・

How are the economic analysis incorporated into

policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan?

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2.Disasters in Japan

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2. Disasters in Japan -Background

Isewan Typhoon (Super Typhoon Vera) September 1959

The toll from the Isewan Typhoon disaster numbered 5,098 fatalities and

missing persons and 38,921 injured. In addition to the high tide and flood flow

from the river flooding, driftwood struck houses, adding to the fatalities.1) 2)

894hPa min. Nagoya Bay Nagoya City 894hPa min. JMA, 1961 Handa City

1) Lessons from Isewan Typhoon to be passed on to the next generation (Isewan Typhoon 30th Anniversary Project Execution Committee)

2) Cabinet Office , Government of Japan: Special Committee on Archiving major disasters in Japan, 2008

5

JMA, 1961

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2. Disasters in Japan -Background

Tokai Storm of 2000, September 11-13

1%

Obu City and Kariya City, Aichi September 12,2000

1% 11% 1% General assets General assets Agriculture Public infrastructures Public Services 87% Public Services

Nishi-Biwajima, Aichi in Shinkawa river

6

Total economic loss 771,492 million JPY

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2. Disasters in Japan -Background

Typhoon #23, October 2004

Total economic loss 770,910 million JPY

JMA

1%

The state of the damage to Toyooka Hospital

(parking lot) caused by the flooding of the Maruyama

River as a result of Typhoon #23 of 2004.1)

31% General assets 67% 1% Agriculture Public infrastructures 1% Public Services 7 1) Breach of Maruyama River - Records of Typhoon #23 and verification , Tajima Shikyoku, Kobe Shimbun, Kobe Shimbun Sogo

Shuppan Center, 2005 Yomiuri Shimbun

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Flood Damage Statistics Survey has been carried out every year since 1961 to estimate the actual damage caused by water-related disasters such as floods, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, etc. to various general

2. Disasters in Japan -Floods Damage Statistics Survey

caused by water-related disasters such as floods, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, etc. to various general assets owned by individuals or corporate bodies (housings, household commodities, machineries for businesses, agricultural products), public infrastructure such as rivers, roads, etc. and assets for public services such as

transportation, communication, etc. The survey provides basic data for presenting the need for and effectiveness of flood control measures.

of flood control measures.

Damages to General Asset

・Number of damaged houses according to

Damages to Public Services

・Physical damage, etc

inundation depth and gradient, number of affected households, etc

・Physical damage, etc

Damages to Infrastructure ・Cost for ・Cost for emergency rehabilitation, etc 8

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Methodology of the Flood Damage Statistics Survey

Flood Damage Statistics Survey is a general statistics survey based on the article 19 of the Statistics Act

2. Disasters in Japan -Floods Damage Statistics Survey

Methodology of the Flood Damage Statistics Survey

Flood Damage Statistics Survey is a general statistics survey based on the article 19 of the Statistics Act (approved by Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications). It is carried out by MLIT’s Water and

Disaster Management Bureau in collaboration with prefectures and municipalities. Occurrence of National Government (MLIT) Prefectures Occurrence of water-related disaster

Develop the guideline of flood

General assets Public infrastructures Public Services

Municipalities Municipalities Public Services

Offices

Develop the guideline of flood damage statistics survey (coverage and procedure of the

survey, survey format, fill-in guideline, etc.) Prefectures Offices Submit guideline, etc.) Submit within 45 days of disaster occurrence Submit Submit

Aggregate, organize, and screen the survey data

Prefectures Submit

-Aggregate the survey data -Calculate the damage

-Compile and publish Flood

Submit

-Compile and publish Flood Damage Statistics

-Upload the data to the Access to Flood Damage

Statistics DB National Government

Query and view the survey data -Upload the data to the

DB server of Flood Damage Statistics

Statistics DB National Government

(Regional Offices, etc.)

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Effect of Flood Management in Japan

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

Flood manegementcost (Nominal)

Effect of Flood Management in Japan

Bay

Number of Fatalities by Floods , GDP and Budget for Flood Management (2000 price)

30,000

10,000

Number of fatalities

(people)

Flood manegementcost (Nominal)

(hundred of million yen) GDP(nominal) <billion yen>

<600,000> T yp h o o n Kat h le e n Io n T yp h o o n Kit ty T yp h o o n Jan e T yp h o o n Ru th W e st -Jap a n F lo o d T yp h o o n T o yamar u F lo o d T yp h o o n Kar in o g aw a ← T yp h o o n Is e -Bay S e co n d T yp h o o n M u ro to N o .2 4 , N o .2 6 Jap a n W at e r D is as te r T yp h o o n N o .6 , N o .7 , N o .9 N ag as ak i W at e r D is as te r S an in W at e r D is as te r N o .6 , Lan d slid e in N ag an o Jap a n W at e r D is as te r T yp h o o n N o .1 7 , N o .1 8 , N o .1 9 F u g e n -D a k e D e b ris F lo w in Kag o sh ima H ar ih ar a F u ku sh ima T o ch ig i F lo o d , Ko ch i F lo o d 20,000 25,000 1,000 10,000 <500,000> ← T yp h o o n ← T yp h o o n Io n ← T yp h o o n Kit ty ← T yp h o o n Jan e ← T yp h o o n Ru th ← W e st ← T yp h o o n ← Is ah a y a F lo o d ← T yp h o o n ← ← S e co n d T yp h o o n ← T yp h o o n N o .2 4 , N o .2 6 ← W e st -Jap a n W at e r D is as te r ← T yp h o o n N o .6 , N o .7 , N o .9 T yp h o o n N o .1 7 ← N ag as ak i W at e r D is as te r W e st e rn -S an in W at e r D is as te r T yp h o o n N o .6 , Lan d slid e in N ag an o -Jap a n W at e r D is as te r T yp h o o n N o .1 7 , N o .1 8 , N o .1 9 P yr o clas tic f lo w o f U n ze n -F u g e n A u g u st F lo o d in Kyu syu D e b ris F lo w in Kag o sh ima H ar ih ar a F u ku sh ima T o ch ig i F lo o d , Ko ch i F lo o d D e b ris F lo w in H ir o sh ima Ku mamo to F lo o d 15,000 20,000 100 1,000 <400,000> <300,000> T o kai F lo o d ← ← ← T yp h o o n N o .1 7 ← ← W e st e rn ← T yp h o o n ← W e st -← T yp h o o n N o .1 7 , N o .1 8 , N o .1 9 P yr o clas tic f lo w o f U n ze n ← A u g u st F lo o d in Kyu syu ← D e b ris F lo w in Kag o sh ima H ar ih ar a ← F u ku sh ima T o ch ig i F lo o d , Ko ch i F lo o d ← D e b ris F lo w in H ir o sh ima Ku mamo to F lo o d 10,000 10

Flood Management Cost (Nominal) GDP (Nominal) Number of Fatalities <300,000> <200,000> ← T o kai F lo o d 0 5,000 1 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Number of Fatalities <100,000> <0> 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 <0>

*Number of fatalities exclude those who dead by tsunami *GDP : 1980-2009(2000 price), 1946-1979(1990 price)

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Inundated Area by Floods

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

Inundated Area by Floods

70000 50000 60000 70000 30000 40000 50000 Inundated area (10,000 ha) 20000 30000 20 10 0 10000 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 7 10 0 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 7

Total Inundated Area (10,000ha) Total Inundated Area (10,000ha)

Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha)

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2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

Damage to General Assets

Economic Losses to General Assets

140 70000 General Assets (10 billion yen) 80 100 120 40000 50000 60000 40 60 80 20000 30000 40000 0 20 40 0 10000 20000 0 0 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 7

Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) Damage to General Assets (2000 Price)

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Flood Damage Density (Economic Losses per Area),

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

Damage to Density of Damage

Flood Damage Density (Economic Losses per Area),

GDP and Budget for Flood Management (2000 price)

140 70000 Damage to General Assets (10 billion yen) Density of Damage Cost

(thousand yen / ha)

100 120 140 50000 60000 70000 60 80 30000 40000 20 Inundated area (10,000 ha) 0 20 40 0 10000 20000 20 10 0 0 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 7

Total Inundated Area (10,000ha)

0

Total Inundated Area (10,000ha)

Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) Density of Flood Damage to General Assets

Damage to General Assets (2000 Price)

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2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

All disaster damage trend in Japan 1990-2009 (2000 price)

1,500 house housing companies Billion JPY 1,000 agri/fishery housing res companies res 500 private total river coast/port sediment 500 _sediment landslide debris road/bridge 0 road/bridge sewage park/urban Year

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2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

○ Levee construction, channel excavation and development of detention basins were carried

out in Ikarashi River and Kariyata River of Shinano River System after the flood of July 2004 Heavy Rain in Niigata and Fukushima in July 2004

Effectiveness of Flood Control Projects

(damage reduction due to levee construction, river channel excavation, etc)

out in Ikarashi River and Kariyata River of Shinano River System after the flood of July 2004 in order to prevent damages from future flooding.

○ In July 2011, heavy rain with precipitation higher than that of 2004 by 40% was recorded, however damages were significantly reduced.

Heavy Rain in Niigata and Fukushima in July 2004

Levees failed in Igarashi River and Kariyata River due to 13 days of heavy rains that started from the midnight of July 12 2004. Inundation occurred in a large extent.

Kariyata River Detention Basin

(damage reduction due to levee construction, river channel excavation, etc)

Levee construction, channel excavation, straightening of channel, etc

Detention basins and upstream dam played effective roles in reducing downstream water levels and prevented inundation.

6 basins developed as emergency measures after 2004 flood ▽20.38 平成16年7月13日洪水刈谷田大堰地点刈谷田大堰地点刈谷田大堰地点刈谷田大堰地点 ▽21.10堤防高 Kariyata Weir E basin F basin A basin B basin C basin

Detention Basin (July 30 14:00)

and prevented inundation. [Dimensions of Kariyata River Detention Basin]

Detention Area Design Capacity

912,000 m2 2,347,000 m3

Straightening of channel

Detention basin straightening of channel levee construction channel excavation, etc

▽17.72 平成23年7月30日洪水 ▽20.38 平成16年7月13日洪水 ▽21.10堤防高 7.13水害では越水 × × × ×Failure location ■Inundation area

Inundation due to levee failure in Igarashi River (Sanjo City, Niigata Pref.)

Levee construction and channel excavation in Igarashi River

Straightening of channel

Curved channel section is straightened to safely discharge flood water and prevent flooding.

Kariyata River Nakanoshima Ohashi Bridge

277.0 388.4 300.0 400.0 500.0 150230 120000 160000 ₁₄₄₃₉ 12000 16000 2-day precipitation

(Upstream of Teiseki-bashi) Damages to General Asset

（mm）（million yen）（number）Damaged Buildings

40% increase 40% increase40% increase 40% increase 98% reduction 98% reduction 98% reduction

98% reduction _{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}

277.0 388.4 150,230 _14,439 15 277.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 平成１６年７月洪水平成２３年７月洪水 3426 0 40000 80000 平成１６年７月洪水平成２３年７月洪水 1062 0 4000 8000 平成１６年７月洪水平成２３年７月洪水 98% reduction 98% reduction 98% reduction

98% reduction _{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}_{93% reduction}

2004.7 2011.7 2004.7 2011.7 2004.7 2011.7

277.0

3,426 1,062

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2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics

Heavy Rain in Tokai (2000.9)

Effectiveness of prevention 670 Effectiveness of prevention 550 billion yen 670 billion yen 71.6 billion yen of investment could reduce 550 billion yen Cost of 120 billion yen reduce 550 billion yen of damages

Inundation in Nishibiwajima Town

Total losses Estimated losses with prevention measures Cost of Prevention Measures yen

Heavy Rain in Tokai (2000.9) (Shonai & Shin Rivers)

measures Measures

16

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Impact damage caused by traffic disruptions(Roads,railways,airports..) ◆Great East Japan Earthquake

- Traffic was disrupted on15 highway routes, 171 National road sections and 540

◆Tokai Storm in 2000

- The maximum rainfall per hour was recorded during the

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages

- Traffic was disrupted on15 highway routes, 171 National road sections and 540 prefectural and municipal roads.

- 77 passenger railway routes were damaged and disrupted

(3 Shinkansen routes, 51 conventional JR line routes and 23 private and third sector railway routes).

- 4 airports were damaged (out of a total of 13 airports*)

- The maximum rainfall per hour was recorded during the peak evening rush hour, disrupting public transportation and preventing large numbers of people from returning home.1)

- -Approximately 5,000 people spent the night inside JR Nagoya Station, around 1,000 each at Kintetsu Nagoya

Damage to railway facilities

- 4 airports were damaged (out of a total of 13 airports*) (Sendai Airport was completely unusable.)

Nagoya Station, around 1,000 each at Kintetsu Nagoya Station and Meitetsu Shin Nagoya stations, and around 1,300 in the municipal subways, in cars and on the

premises, while 54,000spent the night inside the cars

of the Shinkansen train.2)

* Total number of facilities in the Tohoku and Kanto area and Niigata

Near Shimanokoshi Station, Near Shimanokoshi Station,

North Rias Line, Sanriku Railway Co. Top part of bridge washed away

福島第1原力発電所福島第2 ② ② ② ② 原子力発電所橋梁上部工流出

Kesen Oohashi of National Route 45

People spending the night at Meitetsu Shin Nagoya Station (from the web page of The General Insurance Association of Japan)

Normal conditions (Tenpaku-ku, Nagoya)

Tokai Storm flood conditions

Flooding of airport Legend Highways damaged locations Directly controlled national routes damaged locations

Major ports Not damaged damaged

Sendai Airport

Source: MLIT 1) Tokai Storm disaster and new disaster prevention issues, Yoshiaki Kawada

2) Disaster Archipelago 2000, River Bureau, MLIT

The same location in normal conditions and Tokai Storm flood conditions (from the web page of MLIT)

damaged Not damaged Airports damaged

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Suspended functions of medical facilities and the flooding of social welfare facilities

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages

- A public hospital in Toyooka, Hyogo Prefecture was flooded by Typhoon #23 of 2004. Scheduled surgery had to be postponed for five days, while two patients were transported to other hospitals by disaster prevention helicopters since dialysis treatment could not be provided.1)

- Junwakai Memorial Hospital in Miyazaki was inundated by 1.5 m of floodwater in Typhoon #14 of 2005, causing medical equipment, rooms and facilities on the ground floor to be submerged, along with the emergency power supply, disrupting all lifelines, even the securing of drinking water. It took 1.5 months to fully recover. 2)

drinking water. It took 1.5 months to fully recover.

- In the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, there were confirmed cases of deaths caused by patients being unable to undergo sufficient dialysis treatment due to living in evacuation centers.3)

The state of the damage to Toyooka Hospital (parking lot) caused by the flooding of the Maruyama River as a result

of Typhoon #23 of 2004.4)

Damage to MRI equipment in the X-ray room of Junwakai Memorial Hospital as a result of the flooding of the Oyodo

River as a result of Typhoon #14 of 2005.5)

- In the Tokai Storm of 2000:

・ The rehabilitation facility in a healthcare facility for the elderly in Nishibiwa-cho was flooded, even though efforts were made to carry as

much office equipment and medication as possible upstairs to the 2nd floor.

・ As it became isolated, food and fuel for the emergency generator were transported by JSDF helicopters.6)

1) Typhoon #23 strikes the hospital. What happened to Toyooka Hospital in the above floor-level flooding?, Japanese Journal of Nursing Administration, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2005 2) Web page of the Japan Society of Disaster Nursing: Experiencing the hospital disaster caused by Typhoon #14 and current approaches. http://www.jsdn.gr.jp/news_backno13.html 3) Yomiuri Shimbun Web page, Two artificial dialysis patients die while living in evacuation centers, April 2, 2011, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110402-OYT1T00309.htm 4) Breach of Maruyama River - Records of Typhoon #23 and verification, Tajima Shikyoku, Kobe Shimbun, Kobe Shimbun Sogo Shuppan Center, 2005

5) Provided by Junwakai Memorial Hospital (Miyazaki)

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Adverse effects brought to the supply chains by disaster-stricken companies etc.

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages

Adverse effects brought to the supply chains by disaster-stricken companies etc.

● _{If a large-scale disaster occurs, the shortage of intermediate products due to disaster-stricken companies, plants,}

offices etc. adversely affects the production activities nationwide in a chain-reaction manner.

◆

◆◆

◆_{In case of the flood disasters which occurred in the Tokai}

* Supply chain: The connections among business operators involved in a series of processes from the raw material procurement to the delivery to consumers.

◆ ◆ ◆

◆In case of the Great East Japan Earthquake

◆

◆◆

◆_{In case of the flood disasters which occurred in the Tokai}

area on September 11 and 12, 2000

・The flood disasters in Tokai area, which spread over in other areas (Information searched through

newspapers)

【The effects of disasters incurred by semiconductor-related industries】

◆ ◆ ◆

◆In case of the Great East Japan Earthquake

・As the domestic semiconductor industry incurred the disaster, the relevant industries were

adversely affected.

Headquarters of Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota City, Aichi Prefecture)

・Production shut off at 24 domestic plants (including 9 associated companies)

Headquarters of Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. (Osaka Prefecture)

・The damage to the “suppliers” and “suppliers of suppliers” often hampered the smooth procurement of

parts and components.

【The effects of disasters incurred by semiconductor-related industries】

Production resumed (on April 12, 2011) Production resumed (on March 19, 2011)

・Production shut off at Kyoto Plant and Shiga Plant

Aisin Keikinzoku Co., Ltd. (Toyama Prefecture) * Supplier of Toyota Motor Corporation

・Production shut off on March 12, 2011

Toyota Motor Kyushu Inc. (Fukuoka Prefecture)

Material production (26) Material processing (22)

【The factors hampering the smooth procurement of raw materials, parts and

components】

Production resumed (on March 19, 2011) Production resumed (on April 12, 2011) Production resumed (on March 19, 2011)

Production resumed in some lines (on April 18, 2011) Restored (on April 20, 2011)

Restoration work completed at the beginning of May 2011 The production scale before the earthquake regained in May 2011 due to alternative production in other production bases

Toyota Motor Kyushu Inc. (Fukuoka Prefecture)

・The nighttime production lines shut off from March 12, 2011 3:00 pm.

Headquarters of Mazda Motor Corporation (Hiroshima Prefecture)

・Production partially shut off at 2 plants in Shikoku Region A sup

plie r a ffe cte d b y th e d isa ste r A s up plie r o f a su pp lier aff ect ed by th e d isa ste r Th e d istr ibu tio n n etw ork pa raly ze d Affe cte d b y th e p lan ne d b lac ko uts Oth er f act ors

Production to be partially resumed(on March 23,2011) Production partially resumed on April 20, 2011 Production scale before the earthquake regained around the end of June to July 2011

due to alternative production in other production bases

Restored (on April 20, 2011) Currently in the normal operation status

Production partially resumed on March 28, 2011

Yajima Factory of Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (Gunma Prefecture)

・Production shut off on March 14 & 15, 2011

* The information shown above is from newspapers.

A s up plie r a ffe cte d b y th e d isa ste r A s up plie r o f a su pp lier aff ect ed by th e d isa ste r Th e d istr ibu tio n n etw ork pa raly ze d Affe cte d b y th e p lan ne d b lac ko uts Oth er f act ors

Production resumed on March 23, 2011

Production shut off

Production to be partially resumed in June

Production resumed (on April 9, 2011)

Production resumed (on April 8, 2011) Production resumed (on April 12, 2011)

* The planned blackouts are not implemented in the areas covered by Tohoku Electric Power Co.

Source) Document No. 5, 1st_{Industrial Competitive}

Strength Task Force, Industrial Structure Council (June 1, 2011) (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)

Source) Extracted and complied the data from the collection of papers Vol.63 No.2, 88-100, 2007 issued by Japan Society of Civil Engineers, titled “Study on the structural characteristics of urban flood disasters incurred by offices,” Shuji Kimura,

Yoshifumi Ishikawa, Toshitaka Katada, Kazuhiro Asano and Takashi Sato

A s up plie r o f a su pp lier aff ect ed by th e d isa ste r

Buildings and facilities damaged Slight physical damage incurred

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3. Policy and project

evaluation scheme in Japan

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■_{Policy evaluation addressed by the} _Prime Commission on Policy Evaluation

3. Policy and project evaluation -Background

■_{Policy evaluation addressed by the}

entire government Diet

Prime Minister Policy Evaluation and Evaluation of Incorporated Administrative Agencies Report

annually Survey and _discuss

Since April 2002, policy evaluation has been conducted based on the

Government Policy Evaluations Act

Each Ministry

annually _discuss

Offer opinion

(Government Evaluation Act).

PLAN

Each Ministry

The principle of self evaluation _MIC

(Administrative Evaluation

Bureau) Coordination

Each Ministry PLAN Bureau)

Promotion of policy evaluation system Send Each Ministry

In the capacity of planning and establishing policies DO CHECK ACTION system Evaluation activities as an organization specializing in Send evaluation report establishing policies

Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC)

Publication of evaluation report

CHECK specializing in _evaluations

Offer opinion and recommend

action

In the capacity of an organization specializing in handling evaluations

People of Japan

evaluation report

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Method of Policy Evaluation by MLIT

3. Policy and project evaluation –Structure

Method of Policy Evaluation by MLIT

(i) Policy assessment

(Evaluate necessity, effectiveness, efficiency, etc. when introducing new policies)

P o lic y e v a lu a ti o n m e th o

d (ii) Policy check-up

(Establish performance indexes and targets for each major policy target and evaluate)

P o lic y e v a lu a ti o n m e th o d

(iii) Policy review (In-depth analysis and evaluation of specific themes with strong citizen interest)

P o lic y e v a lu a ti o n m e th o d

(iv) Individual public work

project evaluation Planning stage evaluation

New project adoption stage evaluation

New project adoption stage evaluation P o lic y e v a lu a ti o n m e th o d Re-evaluation Ex-post evaluation 22

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Policy assessment

3. Policy and project evaluation –Structure

The policy assessment (prior evaluation) is a method to evaluate the planned programs to be newly adopted

Policy assessment Target programs ○ ○ ○

○_{The programs, attempts are made to adopt} ○

○ ○

○_{Those of the existing programs, attempts are made to revise,}

abolish, alleviate or extend

to evaluate the planned programs to be newly adopted in terms of the following factors.

- Objective - Necessity

Check the following items regarding the target programs. Specification

of targets

Specify the targets of objectives (policy targets, program targets, performance targets and their target values)

- Efficiency - Effectiveness

Necessity

By using the“logical framework analysis procedure (logical analysis method),” identify the objective necessity of programs and the logical process for achieving the targets.

Logical framework analysis procedure (Logical analysis method)

Objectives _{Logical framework analysis procedure (Logical analysis method)}

STEP1 Clearly indicate the gap between the target and the current status. STEP2 Analyze the cause of the gap.

Clearly specify the intensions of policies and the expected effects, and disclose the process of planning to the public.

By intensively assigning budgets to the programs

STEP3 Demonstrate that it is necessary to revise or improve the current _{system in order to achieve the target (= policy issues).}

STEP4 Propose the specific measures and methods (=programs and projects) _{used for solving such policy issues.}

By intensively assigning budgets to the programs required by the public, thoroughly eliminate waste from the budget.

used for solving such policy issues.

* Evaluate whether other social needs are met and the administration (government) is needed to take the responsibility.

Efficiency Demonstrate that the implementation of programs is more effective in

terms of cost-benefit performance. (Example)

- Drawing up the “(tentatively called) 100 millimeter/h safety plan” for assuring secure lives in anticipation of torrential downpours.

- Promoting the measures against high tides and waves as emergency

measures in anticipation of the sea level elevation due to global terms of cost-benefit performance.

Effectiveness Identify the effects gained by implementing the programs and the contribution to the achievement of the targets. measures in anticipation of the sea level elevation due to global

warming.

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(i) Inundation simulation

Without With

3. Policy and project evaluation –Method

・ Undertake inundation analysis,

assuming floods of different probability scales.

・ Obtain details of flood-prone area

Anticipated flood prone area analysis result without improvement

Anticipated flood prone area analysis result with improvement

* Probability scale

Without With

L1 Block L2 Block

・ Obtain details of flood-prone area

without improvement and with improvement. Dam １／５ L1 Block R1 Block L2 Block R2 Block a re a i n c re a s e s w it h １／２０１／１０１／３０ ● ● ● ● ● ● a re a i n c re a s e s w it h p ro b a b ili ty s c a le Dam １／５０１／７０ ● ●

A flood calculation is to be carried out for each flood block for each probability scale. A downstream block flood

calculation is to be carried out, taking into

In u n d a ti o n a re a i n c re a s e s w it h p ro b a b ili ty s c a le Dam １／７０１／１００１／１５０ ● ● ● ●

calculation is to be carried out, taking into account overflows and spills of the

upstream blocks to estimate the

maximum inundation damage for each block.

(ii) Computation of anticipated Inu

n d a ti o n Dam

Probability scale: indicates the probability of the occurrence of floods, with 1/100 representing a flood that occurs once in one hundred years

(ii) Computation of anticipated amount of damage

・ Based on the flood simulation results,

calculate the anticipated amount of _{Anticipated amount of}

damage without improvement

Anticipated amount of damage with improvement

calculate the anticipated amount of damage for each probability scale.

(26)

Image of Computation of Reduced Damage

Using mesh data (ground elevation, asset, slope, etc.) and inundation analysis, calculate the amount of inundation damage for

3. Policy and project evaluation –Method

Using mesh data (ground elevation, asset, slope, etc.) and inundation analysis, calculate the amount of inundation damage for each mesh. The amount of damage will vary with the conditions of the flood, such as the depth of water, etc.

In addition, the assumed mitigated amount of damage (benefit) is obtained through the difference between [with] and [without] project implementation.

Inundation area and water depth reduced by river

improvement

Without improvement project With improvement project

L1ブロック L2ブロック L2ブロック L1ブロック improvement R1ブロック R2ブロック River Improvement R1ブロック R2ブロック Embankment strengthening Channel excavation, embankment strengthening, etc.

[Total R1, R2, L1 and L2] [Total R1, R2, L1 and L2]

9 x 0.3 bil. Yen _＝ 2.7 bil. yen 6 x 0.5 bil. yen = 3.0 bil. yen 4 x 1.0 bil. yen = 4.0 bil. yen

[Total R1, R2, L1 and L2] [Total R1, R2, L1 and L2]

Inundation water depth 0 to 0.5 m イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤いx が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤いx が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤いx が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤いx が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。

8x 0.3 bil. Yen _＝ 2.4 bil. yen 3 x 0.5 bil. yen = 1.5 bil. yen 3 x 1.0 bil. yen = 3.0 bil. yen 4 x 1.0 bil. yen = 4.0 bil. yen

3 x 2.0 bil. Yen = 6.0 bil. yen Assumed damage total:15.7 bil. yen

0 to 0.5 m 0.5 to 1.0 m 1.0 to 3.0 m 3.0 to 5.0 m

0 x 2.0 bil. Yen = 0.0 bil. yen Assumed damage total: 6.9 bil. yen

6.9 billion yen

Assumed mitigated damage amount = 15.7-6.9 billion yen

= 8.8 billion yen

15.7 billion yen

(27)

治水経済調査マニュアルＰ７７－７８

Computation of Cost-Benefit Ratio

3. Policy and project evaluation –Method

Both benefit and cost are to be calculated with the time of evaluation as the reference point in time, with the improvement period + 50 years set as the period subject to evaluation.

Cost-Benefit Ratio B/C =Total Benefit / Total Cost

Computation of Cost-Benefit Ratio

improvement period + 50 years set as the period subject to evaluation.

Convert benefit and cost to net present value using the year of evaluation as a reference point, and the gross total of the benefits and costs after conversion to present value shall become the total benefits (B) and total costs (C).

Image of total costs (C) and total benefits (B) Image of total costs (C) and total benefits (B)

Benefit Cost

Benefit converted to net present value

Cost converted to net present value

present value present value

B

e

n

e

fit

* For dams, etc., the benefit is only generated after B e n e fit (B )

Total benefits (B) ***yen

Year

generated after completion of the

facilities, so there are no benefits during its

improvement period. C o s t ( C ) P o in t o f e v a lu a tio n

Total costs (C) ***yen

Completion of the facilities(completion of dams, flood prevention facilities(levees, etc.))

Evaluation period after completion of the Improvement C o s t ( C

) Evaluation period after completion of the _{facilities(50 years)}

Period subject to evaluation

Improvement period

(28)

Subjects of cost-benefit analysis in flood management projects

3. Policy and project evaluation –Coverage

Flood management projects

Classification Details of the Effect (Damage)

A s s e t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t General asset

Houses Inundation damage to residential and business buildings

Household appliances Inundation damage to furniture, automobiles, etc.

Office depreciable assets Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for business, excluding land and buildings

Office inventory assets Inundation damage to business inventory

Flow effect Stock effect

D ir e c t d a m a g e A s s e t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t General asset

damage Office inventory assets Inundation damage to business inventory

Fishing and farming depreciable assets

Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for fishery and agriculture , excluding land and buildings

Fishing and farming inventory

assets Inundation damage to inventory for fishery and agriculture

Agricultural produce damage Inundation damage to agricultural produce

Enhancement effect Damage prevention effect (benefit) D a m a g e p re v e n ti o n b e n e fi t A s s e t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t

Infrastructure damage Inundation damage to infrastructure, public facilities, farmland and farming facilities

Human damage deterrent effect Human life and bodily injuries

O p e ra ti o n d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct Operation suspension damage

Household finances Damage to normal housework and leisure activities of households, hampered by flooding

Office Suspension or stagnation of business production due to flooding

Public and public interest Direct damage Indirect damage

d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct d a m a g e e ff e ct d a m a g e e ff e c t P sy ch o lo g ica l e ff e ct H u m a n d a m a g e e ff e ct p re m iu m , D a m a g e p re v e n ti o n b e n e fi t O p e ra ti o n d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct

damage Public and public interest

services Suspension or stagnation of public and relevant services due to flooding

p o s t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t Emergency measure costs

Household finances Post activities of flooded households, such as clean-up, additional outlay of expenses for

purchases of alternatives such as drinking water, etc.

Office Similar items to household finances

Government, local administrations

Damage similar to household finances and interest on emergency loans provided by the municipalities and consolation payments, etc.

A sse t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct O p e ra ti o n d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct E x -p o s t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t P sy ch o lo g ica l d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct H u m a n d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e ct R isk p re m iu m , e tc. D a m a g e p re v e n ti o n b e n e fi t In d ir e c t d a m a g e E x -p o s t d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t

administrations municipalities and consolation payments, etc.

Impact damage of disruption of traffic

Roads, railroads, airports,

ports, etc. Impact damage caused by disruption of transport including the surrounding areas Impact damage of

breakdown of lifelines

Power, water supply, gas, communication, etc.

Impact damage caused by suspension of power supply, gas, water, etc., including the surrounding areas.

Impact damage caused by the fall in production of surrounding business due to shortage of

Of the direct and indirect damage caused by flooding, in the flood control economics survey manual

(proposed), evaluation is conducted using the effect of preventing damage that can be evaluated in

E

x

-Impact damage of suspension of operations

Impact damage caused by the fall in production of surrounding business due to shortage of items under processing and suspension of public and public interest services, such as hospitals, etc., including the surrounding areas.

P s y c h o lo g ic a l d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t

Accompanying asset damage Psychological shock from damage to assets

Accompanying operational damage Psychological shock from damage to operations

Accompanying human damage Psychological shock from human damage

* Denotes items where the damage rate or damage unit cost are clearly indicated in the flood control economics survey manual (proposed).

of preventing damage that can be evaluated in economic terms at this stage as the benefit.

P s y c h o lo g ic a l d a m a g e d e te rr e n t e ff e c t

Accompanying ex-post damage Psychological shock from damage from clean-up work, etc.

Accompanying impact damage Psychological shock from impact damage

Risk premium, etc. Uncertainty due to possibility of damage

(29)

3. Policy and project evaluation –Coverage

Direct damage(1) Direct damage(1)

Houses (Inundation damage to residential and business buildings)

>> average house evaluated price per m2 x house space x damage ratio

Household appliances (Inundation damage to furniture, automobiles, etc.) >> average evaluate appliance price per household x number of household x >> average evaluate appliance price per household x number of household x damage ratio

Office depreciable assets (Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for Office depreciable assets (Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for business, excluding land and buildings)

>> average depreciable asset price by industry per employee x employee x >> average depreciable asset price by industry per employee x employee x damage ratio

Office Inventory assets (Inundation damage to business inventory) Office Inventory assets (Inundation damage to business inventory)

>> average inventory asset price by industry per employee x employee x damage ratio

(30)

3. Policy and project evaluation –Coverage

Direct damage(2) Direct damage(2)

Fishing and farming depreciable assets (Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for fishery and agriculture , excluding land and buildings)

assets for fishery and agriculture , excluding land and buildings)

>> average depreciable asset price per farmer/fisherman x farmer/fisherman x damage ratio

Fishing and farming inventory assets (Inundation damage to inventory for fishery and agriculture)

>> average inverntory asset price per farmer/fisherman x farmer/fisherman x >> average inverntory asset price per farmer/fisherman x farmer/fisherman x damage ratio

Agricultural produce damage (Inundation damage to agricultural produce) >> average product per area x area x price of the product x damage ratio Infrastructure damage (Inundation damage to infrastructure, public facilities, farmland and farming facilities)

>> calculation in accordance with general assets damage

29

(31)

3. Policy and project evaluation –Coverage

Indirect damage Indirect damage

Office (Suspension of stagnation of business production due to flooding) >> suspension damage by industry per employee per day x employee x >> suspension damage by industry per employee per day x employee x suspension days

Public and public interest services (Suspension of stagnation of public and Public and public interest services (Suspension of stagnation of public and relevant services due to flooding)

>> suspension damage per employee per day x employee x suspension days

days

Household finances (Post activities of flooded households, such as Household finances (Post activities of flooded households, such as clean-up, additional outlay of expenses for purchases of alternatives such as drinking water, etc.)

>> average clean-up cost per household per day x household x days >> average clean-up cost per household per day x household x days

+ average outlay expenses per household x household Office (Similar items to household finances)

30

Office (Similar items to household finances)

>> average clean-up cost per office per day x office x days + average outlay expenses per office x office

Framework for estimating flood damage