As America Becomes More Diverse:
The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality
New York State Profile
Questions You Should Ask
How educated is New York’s adult population and workforce?
How does New York compare to the national average, the most
educated states, and the most educated countries?
What are the disparities in educational attainment, participation and
completion in higher education, and personal income by gender and
race/ethnicity?
How is the demographic composition of New York expected to change?
How will expected changes in demography – given current disparities
in education and personal income – affect the overall educational
attainment and personal income of New York?
Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management
The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality
New York State Profile
Racial/Ethnic Composition of New York’s Working Age Population (Ages 25 to 64) from 1980 to 2000 6,502,440 6,587,435 6,330,812 1,063,440 1,318,353 1,434,924 766,020 1,097,875 1,457,240 18,040 25,069 29,971 176,440 392,758 616,403 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1980 1990 2000 White African-American Hispanic/Latino
Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds in 2000 (All Races)
17.4% 26.4% 17.9% 8.3% 17.3% 12.7% 16.1% 27.8% 22.3% 7.2% 17.1% 9.4% 22.4% 41.3% 29.9% 11.6% 23.2% 15.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Less than High School
High School/No College
Some C ollege Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Professional New York US Average Highest State
MS WV UT ND CO MA
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1990 and 2000 Census’)
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Disparities in Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Females Males White Females Males African-American Females Males Hispanic/Latino Females MalesNative American/AK Native
LEGEND
Females Males
Asian/Pacific Islander
Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (Working Age)
Percent with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher – by Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census’) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for 1980.
Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher – by Gender and Race/Ethnicity
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1980 1990 2000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1990 2000
Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce)
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Percent with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher – By Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census’) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for 1980.
Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher – By Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity
(25 to 34 Year Olds Continued)
Females Males White Females Males African-American Females Males Hispanic/Latino Females Males
Native American/AK Native
LEGEND
Females Males
Asian/Pacific Islander
Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Indexed to the Top Country
Indexed to the Top Country – Percent with a Bachelor’s
Degree or Higher – By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Indexed to the Top Country – Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher – By Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 2000 Census) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
WM WF BM BF HM HF NAM NAF APM APF
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Top Country (Norway)
Top Country (Canada)
US Index = 0.86 US Index = 0.77
Personal Income
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New York 122.5% 119.3% 109.0% 119.0% 117.6% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 US AverageNew York’s Personal Income Per Capita as a Percent of the US Average (1960 to 2000)
Higher Education Participation and Completion by Race/Ethnicity
White
LEGEND
African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
59.2% 46.0% 37.6% 34.9% 60.1% 54.3% 22.4% 22.7% 19.0% 18.6% 31.8% 29.1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Representation (%) of Race/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline (2002)
Difference in the Percentage of Credentials Awarded and the Percentage of 18 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (2002)
Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity (2002)
Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion)
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey)
Actual vs. Parity Three-Year Graduation Rates for Associate Students
Six-Year Graduation Rates for Bachelor’s Students US Average US Average 58% 67% 63% 61% 64% 67% 65% 17% 14% 14% 16% 15% 11% 12% 18% 11% 12% 12% 12% 9% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 8% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
18 Year Olds High School Graduates First-Time Freshmen All Other Undergraduates Associate Degrees Awarded Bachelor's Degrees Awarded All Credentials and Degrees Awarded 1.3% -0.1% -9.1% -5.6% 7.0% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion)
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The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and
Personal Income (2000 to 2020)
Projected changes in educational attainment and personal income per capita are based on the US Census Bureau’s population projections by age and race/ethnicity and 2000 educational attainment and personal income data by age and race/ethnicity. The analyses are designed to help answer the following question: “Given current disparities in educational attainment and personal income by age and race/ethnicity, how will the changing demographics in my state impact the overall educational attainment and personal income of the adult population?”
6,330,812 5,692,153 1,434,924 1,512,909 1,457,240 2,000,794 29,971 35,118 616,403 970,659 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 Projected Change in 25 to 64 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (from 2000 to 2020)
White
African-American Hispanic/Latino
Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Changes in Educational Attainment as a Result of the Projected Changes In Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds from 2000 to 2020)
17.1% 19.2% 26.4% 25.9% 18.0% 17.7% 8.3% 8.0% 17.3% 16.9% 12.9% 12.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
Less than High School High School
Some College
Associates Bachelor’s
Graduate/Professional
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000
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The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and
Personal Income (2000 to 2020) - Continued
$ 23,404 $ 22,222 $ 21,591 $ 21,196 $ 28,869 $ 27,813 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 2000 2020 271,109 41,184 23,007 -7,652 10,727 -10,045 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020 (In 2000 $)
Top State New York
Number Change in Adults 25 to 64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020
US Average Less than High School
High School Some College Associates Bachelor’s
Graduate/Professional
Source: US Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000 Source: US Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000
If Hispanics/Latinos, African-Americans, and Native Americans
achieved the same levels of education as Whites by 2020, New York’s
personal income would increase by $24.3 Billion (in 2000 $).
Note: Does not account for racial/ethnic disparities in personal earnings for the same levels of education.
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The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality
New York Summary
All minority populations grew in New York from 1980 to 2000 – with the majority
of growth among Hispanics and Asians. The White population declined over the two decades. The same trends are expected from 2000 to 2020.
The workforce has slightly more college degrees than the nation as a whole and
substantially less than the most educated states. A relatively high percentage of 25 to 64 year olds (17%) have less than a high school education and 16 percent of the younger population – ages 25 to 34 – have less than a high school diploma.
Females have made progress in educational attainment relative to males but
sizable disparities still exist among racial/ethnic populations. The difference between the two largest populations (White and Hispanic) is among the largest of any state. Only 18 percent of Hispanics have attained college degrees – compared to 45 percent of Whites.
Only Asians and Whites exceed the most educated country in the percentage of
adults (ages 25 to 34) with a bachelor’s degree and the percentage with a college degree (associate and higher) – which is an important consideration in an
increasingly global economy.
New York’s personal income per capita has fallen slightly from 123 percent of the
U.S. average in 1960 to 118 percent in 2000.
The education system in New York (from high school to college completion) fails to
retain Hispanics and African-Americans at nearly the rate of Whites. These racial/ethnic disparities are also evident in the graduation rates of associate and baccalaureate students.
Unless these inequities are addressed, current disparities in educational attainment
and the population projections by race/ethnicity indicate that New York will lose ground in the percentage of its workforce that is college-educated. Nearly all of the growth will occur in the “less than high school” population.
A similar trend is projected for personal income. New York’s personal income per
capita will decline relative to other states which will also have a negative impact on the tax base and its ability to provide services to its citizens – namely higher education.
