NEW CHALLENGES
NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Report of the Border, Midland and Western
Contents
Acknowledgements
The Border, Midland and Western Regional Assembly would like to thank the
Chairperson, the Steering Committee, the members of the thematic panels and the
consultees across the region for all their work and valuable input into the Foresight
process. The Regional Assembly is also grateful to those who contributed towards
the production of the final report, including Professor Michael Cuddy, Department
of Economics, NUI Galway, Aileen Shaw, Galway University Foundation and the Irish
Regions Office, Brussels. Gratitude is also expressed to CM International Consultants
and Günther Clar for their role in facilitating the process and providing drafts for the
final report.
EUROPEAN UNION STUCTURAL FUNDS
Funded by EU Structural Funds under the Innovative Actions Programme
BMW report 2005 c
List of Abbreviations
i
Foreword
ii
Introduction
iii
one
chapter
1
Articulating an ambitious and realistic future for the BMW Region
1
1.1 Why a BMW Regional Foresight and why now?
2
1.2 The Foresight Process
2
1.3 The Vision for the Region
3
1.4 Overview of the report
3
two
chapter
2
The BMW Region today: A brief profile
5
2.1 Overview
6
2.2 The Social Environment
7
2.3 The Economic Environment
7
2.4 Key Challenges
7
2.5 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the Region
8
three
chapter
3
What forces will drive the development of the BMW Region?
11
3.1 Global Trends
12
3.2 Key reports and Policies
13
3.3 Selected Policy Driving Forces
16
four
chapter
4
Where do we want to be in 2025? A vision for the BMW Region
19
4.1 A vision for the BMW Region
20
4.2 The Five Components
21
4.3 Cross-cutting Themes
22
Contents
Contents
five
chapter
5
What will drive the region forward?
25
5.1 Introduction
26
5.2 The Objectives and Measures
27
six
chapter
6
Investing now: Priority Initiatives
39
6.1 The Rationale for Priority Initiatives
40
seven
chapter
7
Making it Happen: Implementation and Monitoring
47
7.1 Introduction
48
7.2 Implementation
48
7.3 Monitoring and Review
49
7.4 Selected Performance Indicators
49
Annexes
A-E
Annex A: The Foresight Process
54
Annex B: Participation in the Foresight Process
56
Annex C: A Profile of the BMW Region
58
Annex D: Delivery of Effective Regional Policy
64
Annex E: Regional Planning Guidelines: Critical Enabling Investment
Priorities for the Border, Midland and West Regions
66
List of Figures
Figure 1. A Map of the BMW Region
6
Figure 2. The Strategic Vision, Components and Cross-cutting Themes
20
Figure 3. The 10 Strategic Objectives
26
Figure 4. A Map of the BMW Region
58
Figure 5. Regional Unemployment Rates 1995 – 2004
60
Figure 6. Male and Female Participation Rates in % to
Leaving Certificate Level 1998
61
Figure 7. Visitor Numbers 2000-03 Combined Increase/Decrease (%)
62
List of
Abbreviations
five
chapter
5
What will drive the region forward?
25
5.1 Introduction
26
5.2 The Objectives and Measures
27
six
chapter
6
Investing now: Priority Initiatives
39
6.1 The Rationale for Priority Initiatives
40
seven
chapter
7
Making it Happen: Implementation and Monitoring
47
7.1 Introduction
48
7.2 Implementation
48
7.3 Monitoring and Review
49
7.4 Selected Performance Indicators
49
Annexes
A-E
Annex A: The Foresight Process
54
Annex B: Participation in the Foresight Process
56
Annex C: A Profile of the BMW Region
58
Annex D: Delivery of Effective Regional Policy
64
Annex E: Regional Planning Guidelines: Critical Enabling Investment
Priorities for the Border, Midland and West Regions
66
List of Figures
Figure 1. A Map of the BMW Region
6
Figure 2. The Strategic Vision, Components and Cross-cutting Themes
20
Figure 3. The 10 Strategic Objectives
26
Figure 4. A Map of the BMW Region
58
Figure 5. Regional Unemployment Rates 1995 – 2004
60
Figure 6. Male and Female Participation Rates in % to
Leaving Certificate Level 1998
61
Figure 7. Visitor Numbers 2000-03 Combined Increase/Decrease (%)
62
List of
Abbreviations
ADSL
Asymetric Digital Subscriber Line
AIT
Athlone Institute of Technology
BMW
Border, Midland and Western
CAP
Common Agricultural Policy
CSO
Central Statistics Office
DKIT
Dundalk Institute of Technology
ESF
European Social Fund
FDI
Foreign Direct Investment
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GMIT
Galway, Mayo, Institute of Technology
GVA
Gross Value Added
ICT
Information and Communication Technology
IoT
Institute of Technology
LYIT
Letterkenny Institute of Technology
MANs
Metropolitan Area Networks
NAPS
National Anti-Poverty Strategy
NDP
National Development Plan
NESC
National Economic and Social Council
NSS
National Spatial Strategy
NUIG
National University of Ireland, Galway
NUTS
Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics
OECD
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OP
Operational Programme
RAGs
Regional Aid Guidelines
R&D
Research and Development
RPG
Regional Planning Guidelines
RTDI
Research, Technological Development and Innovation
S&E
Southern and Eastern
SME
Small and Medium Enterprises
SWOT
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
TTI
Technology Transfer Initiative
VEC
Vocational Education Committee
WCED
World Commission on Environment and Development
WDC
Western Development Commission
WRC
Western Rail Corridor
Recent years have seen an increased interest in regional development issues and in the objective of achieving a greater
spatial balance throughout Ireland. At national policy level, this has been reflected in the key strategic objective of the
National Development Plan 2000 – 2006 of achieving more balanced regional development. It is also expressed clearly in
the National Spatial Strategy 2002 -2020, which aims to support a better spatial distribution of economic growth and which,
for this purpose, sets out a range of measures that act at the national, regional and local levels.
The Border, Midland and Western (BMW) Regional Foresight exercise has involved a broad partnership and participatory
approach. It brought together those persons and organisations whose actions are most likely to shape the development
of the BMW Region over the next 20 years. It has encompassed the public and private sectors, national, regional and local
agencies, regional and local authorities, 3rd level institutions, business people and business representatives. A central
objective has been to articulate a coherent, future-oriented strategic vision and associated investment priorities for the BMW
Region, which reflects the informed views of key decision makers whose views and actions will determine the future growth
trajectory of the region. The Foresight exercise has built upon existing plans and strategies which have been prepared at
EU, national and regional levels, and which affect in a significant way the development of the region. It transforms these
plans and strategies into a coherent development framework for the BMW Region. In doing so it has identified a series of
key investment priorities which, if put in place in a timely, effective and efficient manner, will provide strong foundations for
the growth of the region in the medium and long-term.
The Foresight exercise has provided an insightful approach to regional development through which a deeper understanding
of the external and internal challenges which face the Region at the present time and, those it will face in future years, has
been attained. It has also identified the opportunities that arise from adapting to these challenges. It has, in particular,
recognised the benefits that can accrue to the development of the BMW Region by the adoption of common goals and
shared analysis across organisational boundaries. The Foresight exercise demonstrates clearly how organisations, which
determine the development of the region, can achieve far more than the sum of their parts by working closely together
rather than apart. Looking forward, it provides a framework through which this can be achieved.
I would like to acknowledge the dedication and commitment of the many people who have participated in the Regional
Foresight exercise. These include, especially my colleagues on the Steering Committee, the chairpersons and members of
the four thematic panels, the consultants to the Exercise, CM International and the secretariat support provided by the staff
of the BMW Regional Assembly.
The BMW Region has made significant progress in realising its development potential over the past decade in particular. It
is, today, at the threshold of a major new constellation of opportunities. These hold the prospect of a BMW Region which is
innovative, knowledge-driven, competitive and which enjoys a quality of life for its citizens that is among the highest in the
world. The strategic direction and investment priorities set out in this report can play a vital part in achieving a real prospect
of significant advances in the prosperity of people in the BMW Region in future years if they are pursued with commitment
and vigour by the organisations and people within the region who have worked so assiduously and professionally to fashion
them.
John Travers
Chairman
Foresight Steering Committee
BMW report 2005 iii
It gives me particular pleasure as Chairperson of the Border, Midland and Western
Regional Assembly to welcome the publication of the report of the BMW Regional
Foresight exercise. For the first time, a strategic vision and objectives for the BMW
Region have been set out with the endorsement of a wide range of stakeholders
that can influence the direction of future planning and investment in the region.
The foresight exercise was a very timely one, coming as our current National
Development programmes reach their conclusion and negotiations are commencing
on new investment programmes. It also follows the recent publication of the
Regional Planning Guidelines and several other significant policy and strategy
reports.
As the report title suggests, there are substantial challenges confronting the BMW
Region over the next 20 years, but also immense opportunities that the region must
grasp in order to fulfil its potential. The report sets out both long-term measures
and immediate priority proposals that must be delivered in order to reach the
strategic objectives that have been identified.
The process undertaken during the exercise ensured a high degree of participation
and a new focus on the region’s potential as an innovative, knowledge-based
region capable of competing internationally and providing a high quality of life for
its citizens. Particular attention was given to ensuring that the actions taken are
sustainable and that there is equality of opportunity for all in the region.
There is clearly a need for an enhanced role for local and regional bodies, in particular
the Regional Assembly itself, in determining and delivering on the BMW Region’s
development needs. The report highlights the need for effective governance and
delivery of regional policy with more coherent spatially sensitive policies required
from our national authorities.
I would like to thank all of those who participated in the exercise and in particular the
Steering Committee chaired by Mr. John Travers, the chairpersons and members of
the four thematic panels, those who made submissions and my colleagues on the
Regional Assembly for their input.
The ten strategic objectives for the BMW Region set out in this report are specific,
achievable and actionable and it is now up to the Regional Assembly to take a
lead in ensuring their delivery and their inclusion in the investment plans of local,
regional and national authorities going forward.
Cllr. Connie Hanniffy
Chairperson
BMW Regional Assembly
Introduction
‘
The foresight exercise
was a very timely one,
coming as our current
National Development
programmes reach
their conclusion and
negotiations are
commencing on
new investment
one
chapter
1
Articulating an ambitious and realistic
future for the BMW Region
1.1
Why a BMW Regional Foresight and why now?
This report presents the strategy articulated through the Border, Midland and Western (BMW) Regional Foresight process, which took place from March to December 2004. The Foresight exercise presented people in the BMW Region with a unique opportunity to express their vision and investment priorities for the region in 2025. It brought together a range of stakeholders from public and private bodies at local, regional and national levels and used future-oriented visioning techniques to identify ambitious and realistic priorities for the region for the next twenty years. The delivery of these priorities will be essential to achieving a way of life and standard of living of which people in the region can be proud.
The Foresight process and this strategy document are timely as they coincide with the onset of a new post 2006 funding period. The current National Development Plan (NDP), under which the BMW Region was granted higher rates of Structural Funds assistance, draws to an end in 2006. Whilst the level of EU funding will be significantly reduced in the next programming period, the focus on the specific development priorities of the region should be continued and sustained. This imminent and significant change in the State/EU support environment provides a powerful incentive for the regionto articulate its priorities and to map out a vision for the future. During the Foresight process, it was acknowledged that whilst the BMW Region has made considerable progress over the last ten years, it still faces a number of structural difficulties and barriers which constrain the region’s capability to achieve its full potential. The participants in the process examined innovative ways in which these barriers could be overcome and the inherent strengths and opportunities maximised, so that the region can achieve its true potential by 2025.
1.2
The Foresight Process
The process that was used in identifying the strategy set out in this report was Regional Foresight, which is a structured, participatory approach to regional planning on the part of the key decision-makers and influencers who will determine the development projectory of the region in future years. It is long-term in its outlook, takes global and other driving forces into account and uses methods such as expert panels and scenarios1 to identify future challenges and opportunities for the region. It is a technique advocated widely, particularly by the European Commission who describes it as follows:
“(regional foresight). . . can play a catalytic role in the establishment of initiatives and framework conditions conducive to innovation (in the broadest sense). Regional foresight may be used to monitor performance and suggest improvements and changes in the course of implementation. It contributes to the strengthening of regional identity, not least in the transition to post-industrial, knowledge-based regional economies. Regional foresight also plays an important role in the reform of the European governance.”2
Chapter 1
Articulating an ambitious and
realistic future for the BMW Region
1.1 Why a BMW Regional
Foresight and why now?
1.2 The Foresight Process
1.3 The Vision for the Region
1.4 Overview of the report
‘
During the Foresight
process, it was
acknowledged that whilst
the BMW Region has made
considerable progress over
the last ten years, it still
faces a number of structural
difficulties and barriers
which constrain the region’s
capability to achieve its full
potential
’
BMW report 2005 3
It is also widely regarded as an important means of overcoming certain difficulties that traditional and other futuristic planning methods have in dealing with longer-term perspectives as it brings awareness of long-term challenges and opportunities into more immediate decision-making. The BMW Regional Assembly, in conjunction with a range of regional and national players, decided to embark on a regional foresight process in order to develop key strategic investment priorities based on an in-depth knowledge of the region and its challenges and opportunities in a manner which was visionary and long-term, but also grounded and integrated into current structures and decision-making processes. The objectives of the process included preparing a commonly agreed development programme with the policy-making and implementation bodies in the region; involving all relevant stakeholders in the future development of the region and enabling a deeper understanding of roles, challenges and opportunities facing the region and the benefits from working together. The challenge also was to ensure that practical proposals could be made to Government, which would build on the considerable investment taking place under the current NDP to ensure that the region will be suitably positioned in the future.
The process took place in the BMW Region from February to December 2004 and was structured through a broadly-based steering group with regional, national and international expertise to oversee the process and a series of four expert panels, dealing with each of the four themes that were identified as central to the BMW Region. These broad-based themes which are in line with EU and national objectives, were endorsed by the Steering Committee as critical and relevant to the region and also provided a useful structure on which to build the exercise. They were quality of life, innovation, competitiveness and knowledge. The membership of the panels was chosen on the basis of their broad-based representative nature and their contribution to the future development of the region. The expert panels met on four separate occasions, during which they analysed trends and articulated priorities for the region under each of the themes. The Steering Committee also played a central role in driving the process and contributed to the strategy as laid out in this report. Part of the process also included wide-scale consultation with relevant stakeholders at local, regional and national levels. The process was facilitated by CM International Consultants and co-ordinated by the BMW Regional Assembly.
The strategy as set out in this report is not only the culmination of the work that took place during the process, it also builds on the analysis and conclusions set out in a wide range of local, regional, national and EU policies, strategies and reviews. It lays out a coherent framework with an overall vision and investment priorities for the region for the next twenty years.
1.3
The Vision for the Region
During the Foresight process, the panels and Steering Committee identified a number of important elements of their vision for the region in 2025. This vision emerged from the joint work of the four thematic panels. The overall vision for the region in 2025 was expressed as:
An innovative, knowledge-based and competitive region, with a high quality environment, first class infrastructure, visionary leadership and a quality of life for its citizens that is among the highest in the world This twenty year strategic over-arching vision for social and economic advancement in the BMW Region, is based on a clear acknowledgement that the region must adapt and respond to the current and future challenges presented by regional, national and global economic forces and changes. The vision is composed of five fundamental components, which emerged from the four panels.
These are:
v A region where entrepreneurship, learning and knowledge are the cornerstones of prosperity
v A region with internationally competitive businesses and a business environment conducive to investment
v A region where infrastructure networks provide access to 21st Century resources
v A region where sustainable communities enjoy a high quality environment
v A region with visionary leaders and effective regional management.
Following on from these five components, a series of ten objectives were identified, each with corresponding measures, which require implementation over the course of the strategy. The objectives cover the four thematic areas of quality of life, innovation, knowledge and competitiveness and many overlap across the different themes. In addition to these measures, a number of strategic priority projects were pinpointed as requiring immediate investment in order to provide the enabling infrastructure for the implementation of the overall strategy.
1.4
Overview of the report
The strategy contained in this report is a synthesis of the work of the panels, consultations and Steering Committee completed over the last twelve months and provides a vision and a series of measures and projects for the region to 2025. The first three chapters provide the background and framework for the strategy. Chapter 2 provides a brief overview of the region and its key social and economic features, (with a more detailed profile contained in Annex B). The third chapter identifies the driving forces and trends that have been identified during the Foresight process and the principle underlying policies, strategies and reviews that operate at global, EU, national, regional and local levels. Their implications of these for the BMW Region are briefly outlined.
The second part of the document (chapters 4-7) outline the strategy as identified during the Foresight process, with chapter 4 setting out a vision, with its five components and the cross-cutting themes. The fifth chapter provides an overview of the ten strategic objectives and their accompanying measures, which will drive the vision forward over the life of the strategy. A description and rationale for ten priority projects are contained in the sixth chapter and the final chapter outlines the monitoring and implementation strategy.
5
two
chapter
2
The BMW Region today:
A brief profile
2.1
Overview
The BMW Region3 covers a large and diverse area of Ireland. It comprises of thirteen counties in total including the six border counties of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth; the three western counties of Galway, Mayo and Roscommon and the four midland counties of Laois, Offaly, Longford and Westmeath. The Region accounts for some 47% of the land area of Ireland, 26.5% of the population and contributes some 19% of the GDP of the country.
Figure 1. A Map of the BMW Region
Although the region is predominantly rural with a low population density, there is a strong and developing network of small, medium and larger sized towns, including Sligo, Letterkenny, Dundalk, Cavan, Monaghan, Portlaoise, Longford, Castlebar and the Midland Triangle towns of Athlone, Mullingar and Tullamore and the city of Galway. Such urban centres have established a strong portfolio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and indigenous industries capable of significant future growth.
Map of the BMW Region
West Regional Authority Midland Regional Authority Border Regional Authority
‘
The BMW Region is
characterised by a high
quality environment
with low levels of
pollution, clean air and
water, as well as miles
of clean beaches on the
Western seaboard
’
Chapter 2
The BMW Region today:
A brief profile
2.1 Overview
2.2 The Social Environment 2.3 The Economic Environment 2.4 Key Challenges
2.5 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the Region
BMW report 2005 7
The BMW Region is characterised by a high quality environment with low levels of pollution, clean air and water, as well as miles of clean beaches on the Western seaboard. The Region’s low population density is reflected in the fact that there are few congestion problems outside its main urban centres. The population of 1.03 million (2002) is, however, forecast to increase by 229,261 in 2020 based on current demographic trends and by 321,806 based on the suggested increases in the gateways and hubs under the National Spatial Strategy (NSS). Much of the recent increase in population has been concentrated in the main population centres. This trend is likely to continue, and implies continuing pressures on environmental resources, water supplies and sewerage systems.
2.2
The Social Environment
The social environment of the BMW Region demonstrates a strong history of both community and privately led social, economic and cultural activities. The last twenty years, for example, has seen a proliferation of community development organisations, working at local and county levels, which have provided a wide range of supports in areas such as employability, training, affordable and accessible childcare facilities, family services, personal development and youth work. There has also been a shift towards greater integration of community and social services through the County Development Board process, which has attempted to link relevant organisations and provide greater coherence and integration between services. While this social partnership approach has achieved a great deal of success, there remain significant gaps in service provision in the BMW Region. These include areas such as childcare, supports for children with special needs, youth services, drug programmes outside cities, sports and recreational facilities and many aspects of healthcare service such as care for the elderly and psychological services.
2.3
The Economic Environment
The economy of the BMW Region is currently in a period of transition, with a marked change from a reliance on agriculture sectors to a greater role for the value-added manufacturing and services sectors. Employment in agriculture decreased by 19% from 1999 to 2003 and during the same period it increased by 38% in the services sector. These changes have been accompanied by growth in employment rates, associated falling unemployment rates and significant increases in economic activity as measured by regional Gross Value Added.
Despite these trends, the BMW Region continues to lag behind the Southern and Eastern Region (S&E), as evidenced in a number of important indicators of economic competitiveness, including: company start-ups and expansions, productivity levels and product innovation. The low levels of innovative activity reported amongst the company base is both exacerbated by low graduate retention rates (‘brain drain’), and deficiencies in the region’s innovation and knowledge transfer infrastructure. Critical areas here are the lack of large scale research institutions in the region (with the notable exceptions of the research being undertaken in various faculties in NUIG and in the Marine Institute), low levels of industry/third level linkages, and few private research associations.
While the BMW Region falls behind national averages in several economic indicators, other trends suggest a more positive picture for future competitiveness. The region has, for example, a relatively well educated workforce, with a high proportion of young people participating in formal education up to leaving certificate, and a high number continuing on to third level education. This is supported by a well-developed primary, secondary and tertiary educational infrastructure. Other positive trends include emerging evidence of potential cluster4 development in areas such as:
Galway Life sciences, ICT
Sligo Tool making, medical devices
Monaghan/Cavan Furniture making, food
Donegal Seafood
Midlands Life sciences
Similarly, tourism is a sector that has substantial potential to grow within the BMW Region, based on its outstanding natural beauty, as well as the availability of a wide range of outdoor activities, cultural and heritage facilities (including its Gaeltacht areas and unique island communities), and a range of hospitality provisions for visitors. The tourism sector, however, is not evenly spread throughout the region, with Galway and the Western Seaboard accounting for the largest proportion of visitors. Strengthening the competitiveness and innovation capacity of the BMW Region further, will inevitably require modern physical infrastructure. In comparison with more prosperous regions, the BMW Region has a relatively weak infrastructure. In this respect, the current NDP is doing much to improve roads, water, sewerage, energy and broadband infrastructure in the region. Future emphasis will, however, need to be placed on relieving congestion around the major intercity routes, improving important North-South road and rail linkages, rolling out broadband access to all rural areas, and harnessing the potential of air and sea ports.
2.4
Key Challenges
In summary, the key challenges facing the BMW Region in moving forward are strengthening its economic competitiveness while maintaining the quality of life and vibrant community assets that currently define the region. In order to achieve this goal, innovation and knowledge capacity must be underpinned and the region’s infrastructure must be enhanced.
4 Michael Porter (1998 On Competition, Harvard Business Review Books) defines clusters as: geographic concentrations of inter-connected companies and institutions in a particular field.
Clusters encompass an array of linked industries and other entities important to competition. They include, for example, suppliers of specialized inputs such as components, machinery, and services, and providers of specialized infrastructure…Many clusters include governmental and other institutions - such as universities, standard-setting agencies, think tanks, vocational training providers, and trade associations - that provide specialized training, education, information, research, and technical support.
2.5
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the Region
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
• High quality and scenic environment (both land and sea), low population density
• Well developed network of towns and villages • Access to a well educated, skilled and flexible workforce • High quality of life attributes and positive external image
• Lack of congestion generally resulting in less pressure on the physical infrastructure and high quality affordable housing stock
• High number of school-leavers attending third level education • Many areas of high cultural merit including Gaeltacht and Island
Communities
• Vibrant community and voluntary sectors involved in service provision and impacting on all aspects of life in the Region
• Diverse tradition of Arts, Heritage and Culture
• Increasing level of investment in the region’s infrastructure in recent years
• Strong educational infrastructure, including one university and five Institutes of Technology (IoTs)
• A weak urban structure, generally poor physical infrastructure and lack of efficient access to the main cities and ports
• Higher dependency rates than S&E Region
• A limited industrial or services base with Gross Value Added across all sectors lower than the national average
• Poor agricultural land and weak agricultural structures
• Below average levels of start-ups and new products development • Poor graduate retention and consequent ‘brain drain’
• Gaps in the provision of social, health, cultural and leisure facilities • Some lack of cohesion and collaboration between State and
community sectors in the provision of social services • Insufficient affordable and accessible childcare facilities
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
• Further potential for enterprise development in ICT, tourism, internationally traded services and life sciences and medical devices • NUI Galway and five IoTs with specialist expertise, which could bring
substantial benefits to enterprise in the region
• County and Regional Strategies on Waste, Water and Housing developed to provide future direction
• Full implementation of the NSS and RPGs could bring more balanced regional development to the region
• Potential to develop an internationally recognised cluster e.g. in the medical devices sector
• Loss of jobs through economic restructuring, particularly in agri-food sectors and low tech sectors
• Competition from the rapidly growing economy of the eastern part of the country, in particular the Greater Dublin Area
• Loss of EU Structural Funds and lower preferential aids rates for the region
• Few R&D oriented companies and a relatively small share of national third-level infrastructure and industry linkages could hamper ability to compete in knowledge economy
• Lack of sufficient high-skilled employment opportunities to retain people in or attract people to the region
11
What forces will drive the development
of the BMW Region?
three
A number of factors will drive change in the BMW Region over the next 20 years. These consist of both global trends and EU, national and regional policies and strategies. Global trends provide the backdrop to change within the BMW Region. The challenge will be to harness such trends for the development of the region. The BMW Region will need to ensure that future investment policies are targeted at those development opportunities which have been identified through strategic processes such as the Foresight exercise.
3.1
Global Trends
3.1.1 Effects of globalisation
Globalisation is recognised as a major influencing factor on the future shape of the economy, society and environment. Aided by economic liberalisation and the rapid acceleration of technological change, it has enabled greater access to global markets; increased economic growth; the development of new products, services and technologies; greater consumer choice and demand; improved living standards; increased international travel and cross-cultural understanding.
3.1.2 Demographic change
The UN estimates that by 2050 there will be more people over 60 in the world than children under 15. Alongside this process of population ageing, forecasts suggest that declining fertility levels in Europe indicate that unless levels of migration increase substantially, low or negative population growth can be expected in coming decades (although some variation is likely to be evident between countries). The ‘greying’ of the population is not yet as evident in Ireland, where there is still a steady increase in the population and a relatively high proportion of younger people than in our EU counterparts.
3.1.3 Increasing pace of innovation and technological change
It is generally accepted that the pace at which new innovations are introduced is increasing. This, in part, is linked to increased global competition and consumer demand. Technological change is a central element of the innovation process. In the future, the focus of cutting-edge science and technology is increasingly moving towards convergence of key technologies such as nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science.
3.1.4 Changes in attitudes to work, relationships and organisations
The world of work is changing rapidly, with traditional large organisations giving way to smaller, more flexible and responsive enterprises. This is evident in the growing use of outsourcing and a sharpened focus on core business activities. It can also be seen in changing work hierarchies with employees increasingly viewed as partners in the enterprise.
3.1.5 Transition to a knowledge economy
The decline in traditional sectors and an increase in the role of services has led to enormous changes in the make-up of the economy. Knowledge is becoming an integral part of the economy
‘
Increasingly, it is
argued that regional
success will be defined
by the ability to
create, share and use
knowledge to generate
wealth and improve
quality of life for
people
’
Chapter 3
What forces will drive the
development of the BMW Region?
3.1 Global Trends
3.2 Key Reports and Policies 3.3 Selected Policy Driving Forces
BMW report 2005 13
due to the effect of global forces on production. Increasingly, it is argued that regional success will be defined by the ability to create, share and use knowledge to generate wealth and improve quality of life for people.
3.1.6 Increasing value given by society to the quality of life and living
Quality of life is a critical influence on the well-being of a region: socially, environmentally and economically. The growing importance of quality of life issues across developed countries is being driven by a number of trends, notably increasing leisure time and affluence, the imminent ageing population and issues of health and safety. The importance of quality of life and living is also evident in related trends towards sustainability and the protection of the environment.
3.1.7 Rural pressures and policy changes
Contradictory pressures on rural space are increasingly changing the shape of rural economies and societies. Key trends at work here include the increasing use of rural space for multi-functions such as tourism, recreation, environmental conservation, forestry, bio-mass and housing. Such developments present significant opportunities for rural regions. Other trends, however, present particular challenges to the vitality and skills base of the rural areas and notably out-migration of the young. In addition, the pressures on EU rural areas are being further exacerbated by continued reduction in farm incomes and food industry rationalisation following changes to CAP.
3.1.8 Changes in governance patterns
A number of international trends characterise governance structures in advanced western economies, ranging from decentralisation and devolution, the shift from government to governance itself, and integrated policy coordination or joined up policy making across and between different levels of governance. Each of these governance approaches can increase the sensitivity of policy to regional needs. Devolution and decentralisation are, of course, based on the assumption that regional and local decision-makers have a better understanding of policy issues related to the regional economy, compared to central government departments. This also calls for greater citizen involvement and a move towards more deliberative democracy in which the participation of communities plays a central role.5
3.2
Key Reports and Policies
Investment represents a key dimension of change that will shape the future of the BMW Region. Here, a number of important areas stand out, including: education, telecommunications, energy, access to infrastructure and investment promotion. To a certain extent these can be seen in a range of existing strategies and policy documents. The remainder of this section outlines the critical policies and reports that have informed the development of this Regional Foresight exercise.
3.2.1 Global Issues
Two global agreements are of particular relevance as policy drivers with regional implications, namely the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change and World Trade Organisation (WTO) Agreements. The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change is already having an impact on the push
towards sustainable energy production, energy efficiency in industry and construction, investment in public transport, the commencement of emission trading and the emphasis on enhancement of carbon sinks, in particular forestry. While the WTO Agreements are leading to increased trade liberalisation worldwide and are of particular relevance to agriculture, leading to pressures for reduced subsidisation and removal of trade barriers.
3.2.2 European Policy
The composition of the European Union has undergone dramatic changes in the last two years, with the enlargement of the Union from 15 to 25 countries in May 2004 and the planned extension to 27 in 2007. Enlargement has brought many new challenges and opportunities to the EU, including the need for cohesion policy to provide extra supports for the new member states. The BMW Region will move from its current position of receiving priority support under Objective One and will be designated significantly reduced rates of Structural Funds assistance in the next programming period.
There are two over-arching EU policy drivers that will impact on the BMW Region over the medium term. The Lisbon Strategy (2000) is a commitment to bring about economic, social and environmental renewal in the EU. In March 2000, the European Council in Lisbon set out a ten-year strategy to make the EU the world’s most dynamic and competitive economy. Under the strategy, it is envisaged that a stronger economic base will drive job creation alongside social and environmental policies that ensure sustainable development and social inclusion. The Gothenburg Declaration (2001) sets out the principles of a sustainable development strategy for the EU, requiring that economic growth supports social progress and respects the environment.
Under EU Competition Policy, the EU regulates areas, which could lead to an unfair distortion of competition in a free and open market place. The regulations cover areas such as monopolies, cartels, merger control and state aids. There is a large body of legislation and policy on competition and state aids in particular. The regulation of state aids for regions are outlined in the Regional Aid Guidelines (RAGs), which stipulate a number of precise conditions under which regional aid can be granted. There is a more favourable allowable aid rate for regions lagging behind (Art. 87 (3) (a)), which will no longer apply to the BMW Region post 2006.
EU Regional Policy emphasises the importance of greater cohesion for competitiveness in the enlarged EU. The new EU Regional Policy aims to address both competitiveness and cohesion and will support three key objectives:
v Convergence (objective 1);
v Competitiveness and employment (objective 2); v European territorial cooperation (objective 3).
Some of the implications in the changes in EU Regional Policy for the BMW Region include the imminent loss of Objective One status, the significant reduction in structural funds receipts due to enlargement and the emphasis on thematic rather than sectorial supports. Key foci for the
5 In deliberative democracy, the democratic process is seen as the discussion of problems, conflicts
and claims of need or interest, where through open dialogue proposals and arguments are tested and challenged. It challenges the model of democracy based solely on the aggregation of individual preferences through a voting system.
future will be on innovation and the knowledge economy, environment and risk prevention, and accessibility and services of general economic interest, with the ESF focusing on education, employment and social support and labour supply.
EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy focuses on strengthening rural development and ensuring a competitive agriculture and a high quality environment. The mid-term review of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) (2003) led to agreement on fundamental changes to the CAP including the decoupling of direct payments through a shift from product to producer support by the introduction of a single, area-based payment per farm and reductions in the levels of payments through modulation. These have implications for the future competitiveness of agriculture in the BMW Region necessitating an increased emphasis on environment and land management and on the need to strengthen initiatives in support of viable rural communities.
EU Research and Innovation (RTDI) Policy plans to raise the EU’s research and innovation budgets and to increase and leverage national and regional funding for research and innovation. The main implications for the BMW Region are an increased emphasis and support for research and innovation actions and knowledge-based initiatives in order to enhance the region’s competitiveness within the European Research and Innovation Area.
EU Fisheries Policy currently focuses on four main areas: the conservation and management of marine resources, relations and agreements with non-member countries and international organisations, structural measures, and the common market organisation for fishery products. All of these have implications for the sea fisheries sector in the BMW Region with increased restrictions on fishing quotas, and given that this sector operates in peripheral coastal areas, supports for ongoing investment and diversification (e.g. to aquaculture) must be tailored to meet these areas’ long-term needs.
3.2.3 National Policy, Strategies and Reports
There are a large number of national programmes, strategies, policies and sectorial reviews that have significant implications for the BMW Region. Some of them are Government endorsed national policy and others are national policy proposals, strategies or reports, which have not been officially endorsed as official Government policy, but nonetheless represent the policy strategies and proposals of various bodies. The National Development Plan (NDP) sets out the Government’s €57bn (€18bn in the BMW Region) investment plan for the period 2000-2006. The NDP aims to address some of the significant infrastructure deficits in the region and support human resource development and the productive sector. During the Mid-Term Review of the NDP, significant under spend in the BMW Region in critical areas such as RTDI, National Roads and Public Transport was reported and these will need to be addressed during the next phase of the NDP in order to narrow the existing regional disparities.
The National Spatial Strategy (NSS) (2002), reinforced by the Regional Planning Guidelines (RPG), provides a 20 year planning framework within which regional and county spatial planning can take place in the BMW Region. It suggests an urban hierarchy in the region, but requires targeted investment in infrastructure and economic supports to strengthen selected regional gateways and hubs and to provide access to advantageous locations for inward investment.
The Enterprise Strategy Group report (2004) ‘Ahead of the Curve’ encourages participation in lifelong learning and achieving distinction in the quality of graduates from the Irish higher education system. It has many implications for the BMW Region, including the necessity for strong emphasis on knowledge and skills levels, attraction of new inward investment, introduction of initiatives to build up marketing capabilities in firms, enhancement of research and technological development capacity and the need to support the development of regionally based high-technology clusters. In response to the Enterprise Strategy Group’s proposals, the Irish Government published an Action Plan addressing each of the report’s recommendations.
The Tourism Policy Review Group’s report (2004) sets a vision for Irish Tourism recognising the regional significance of tourism and reinforcing themes that are of relevance to the BMW Region, such as product and service innovation, quality standards, positive brand image and competitiveness for the tourism sector and the need for continuous human resource development and the promotion of professional tourism career paths.
The Irish Action Plan for Increasing R&D to 2010 recommends a broad range of actions of relevance to the BMW Region to support the achievement of these targets, addressing also framework conditions and the business environment for Research, Technological Development and Innovation (RTDI) and embedding the culture of Research and Development (R&D) in SMEs by up-skilling the RTI capability of employees via training in RTDI Management and other educational courses. It also has implications for public investment in the region in terms of improving innovation performance, RTDI capacity and industrial and academic linkages.
The Technology Foresight Ireland (1999) report recommended that Government policies should be more proactive in the creation of an environment conducive to technological innovation. Of particular relevance to the BMW Region is the need to generate increased regional participation in the technology investment that is taking place.
Through the Information Society Commission (ISC), the Irish Government has been proactive in promoting the growth of a knowledge-based society. The BMW Region requires a specific focus on addressing its IT infrastructural needs, as well as measures to ensure that the full benefits of ICT can be exploited by all sectors of society and the economy.
The report of the OECD Review of Higher Education (2004) sets out an agenda of significant structural, institutional and strategic changes and suggests an increased role for the IoTs in applied research and innovation
BMW report 2005 15
and the placing of higher education more centrally in the economic development of the BMW Region.
The Task Force on Lifelong Learning (2002) suggests a greater emphasis of lifelong learning overall and a focus on educational attainment for all sections of society. The delivery of these within the BMW Region poses particular challenges and will require innovative approaches and increased resources if they are to be achieved.
The Agri-vision 2015 Group Report (2004) makes recommendations regarding the Government’s role in relation to the agriculture and food industry: to facilitate a market-driven agriculture and food industry, provide for environmental and social goods, stimulate rural development and to continue to regulate for food safety, animal welfare and environmental protection. These are all relevant to the BMW Region. The White Paper on Rural Development (1999) stresses the important continuing role of agriculture and introduces a range of rural development policy objectives, including rural proofing. This is of relevance to the predominantly rural BMW Region and requires continued support for area-based initiatives in order to retain a viable rural economy as part of the regional and national economy.
The ten year National Anti-Poverty Strategy (2002) contains a global poverty target to reduce consistent poverty to below 2% by 2007.6 The NAPS requires focused support to address deprivation in the BMW Region in childcare, crime prevention, youth services, services to unemployed, community development/family support and equality as well as continued support for measures addressing educational disadvantage.
Making Ireland’s Development Sustainable (2002) has many implications for the BMW Region, including its emphasis on sustainable land use, settlement strategies, energy, transport, water and wastewater usage and the need to support sustainable communities.
The National Health Strategy and Quality and Fairness: A Health System for You (2001) sets out key objectives for the health service. In particular the BMW Region requires a health service that provides equitable access and the optimum level of service at local as well as regional level. The report of the National Task Force on Medical Staffing ‘Hanly Report’ (2003) sets out a series of principles regarding the future organisation of acute hospital services. It emphasises the need to provide a full range of specialist services appropriate to a region and to designate suitable roles for each type of hospital; local, regional or national. This could lead to more difficult access to acute hospital care for people living in remote and rural areas of the BMW Region.
The Strategic Rail Review (2003) evaluated Ireland’s long-term rail requirements and suggested an investment strategy which would require an investment of €8.5bn over twenty years. It was the first comprehensive review of the railways in Ireland and recommended up-grading of most rail services, increased frequency of services, shortening of journey times and the improvement of quality on all radial intercity routes. Whilst the report found many positive arguments in favour of the Western Rail Corridor (WRC) and the Mullingar-Athlone rail link, it did not recommend including them in the immediate investment plan on economic grounds. The basis for this analysis, however, was criticised by many groups in the
region. A report (McCann) on the re-opening of the WRC is currently being considered by Government. The report concluded that a strong case could be made for the restoration of the line.
3.2.4 Regional Strategies
Whilst there is no one specific agency charged with the development of regional policy, there are a number of agencies that develop plans and strategies with certain regional objectives. These include bodies such as the Regional Authorities, the BMW Regional Assembly, the Western Development Commission (WDC), Enterprise Ireland, FÁS, the Fisheries Boards, the Regional Tourism Authorities, Udaras na Gaeltachta, the IoTs and the Universities. The reports outlined below are samples of reports or strategies produced at a regional level in the BMW Region.
The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) are designed to implement the NSS by establishing a framework at regional level to further co-ordinate and integrate the development plans of the planning authorities in each region. They were adopted during 2003 by each Regional Authority and form a framework for development in each Regional Authority area. The Audit of Innovation Report (2004), commissioned by the BMW Regional Assembly, makes recommendations for significant improvement in the region’s innovation systems. The report recommends the promotion of innovation and entrepreneurship in the BMW Region, increasing the number of ICT and other high-tech companies in the region and access to and uptake of venture capital. It also recommends up-skilling and human resource development and an increase in the number of companies undertaking R&D and a strengthening of the research and innovation capacity of the third level sector and the building of regional clusters and networks.
3.2.5 County Policy
Various policies are continually drafted by local authorities on a wide range of issues and the Strategic Policy Committees (SPCs) play a crucial role in the formulation of county policy on a wide range of areas of direct relevance to the local authority.
Each local authority is at varying stages in the drafting and implementation of their City and County Development Plans designed to stimulate investment and development in a coherent manner and to adopt land use strategies which make the most efficient use of resources and service utilities, promote the sustainable development of towns and villages, provide essential infrastructure and the zoning of adequate lands for commercial, industrial, housing and other uses.
The City and County Development Strategies (2002), drawn up by each of the fourteen City and County Development Boards in the BMW Region, have a ten year timeframe and implementation/monitoring mechanisms. At regional level, it is important that focus is retained on the coordination of public service delivery with increasing levels of integration among agencies and participation on regional groupings.
Various other county-based bodies (e.g. Vocational Education Committees (VECs), County Enterprise Boards, LEADER Groups, Partnership Companies, County Childcare Committees, etc.) also produce strategies in relation to their area of activity.
6 Consistent poverty is measured in NAPS as households who are experiencing enforced basic
3.3
Summary of Critical Policy Drivers and their Key
Implications
The table below outlines the critical policy drivers and some of their key implications as identified by the thematic panels at the start of the Foresight process. The list summarises a number of the key issues raised and is not exhaustive.
v Increased trade liberalisation and global competition
v An increased emphasis on sustainability across all sectors of society and the economy, including sustainable communities v New EU thematic focus on competitiveness, innovation and
knowledge economy
v Ongoing transformation of traditional sectors to continue v Focus on competitive agriculture and food industry, with
increased emphasis on multi-functionality of agri-rural areas v Reduced employment in the sea fisheries sector due to quota
restrictions
v Dynamic changes taking place require new approaches to rural development and a strengthening of rural linkages within the broader regional economy
v Investment in transport infrastructure (roads and public transport) and telecommunications to increase access both within and externally for the BMW Region
v Increased emphasis on balanced regional development as a national priority
v Increased emphasis on spatial balance of social, economic and physical development and population growth between the regions
v Enhancement of competitiveness of Irish industry through increased skills, marketing expertise, research and innovation and focused supports
v An expanded role for the education system in the economic development of regions
v Further increases in visitor numbers anticipated, arising from investment in product and service innovation, increased access and focused marketing strategies
v Continued focus on addressing social exclusion and targeting tailored supports
v More flexible and agile government and greater citizen involvement in the development process
v Increased emphasis on renewable energy
v Raising skills levels and increasing lifelong learning to be a priority
v Concerns for the provision of social infrastructure (especially education and health services) on an accessible, equitable basis v National focus on ICT and bio-technology niches arising from
Technology Foresight
Key Implications
Critical Policy Drivers
EU and Global
Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
World Trade Organisation (WTO) Agreements EU Enlargement
Lisbon Strategy Gothenberg Declaration EU Competition Policy EU Regional Policy
EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy EU Research and Innovation (RTDI) Policy EU Fisheries Policy
National
National Development Plan (NDP) National Spatial Strategy (NSS) Enterprise Strategy Group report OECD Review of Higher Education Tourism Policy Review Group’s report Irish Action Plan for Increasing R&D to 2010 National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS) Making Ireland’s Development Sustainable White Paper on Rural Development Task Force on Lifelong Learning Information Society Commission (ISC) National Health Strategy
Technology Foresight Ireland Strategic Rail Review
report of the Agri-vision 2015 Group Regional
Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) Audit of Innovation report
Strategies of regional bodies County/Local
County Development Strategies County Development Plans
19
four
chapter
4
Where do we want to be in 2025?
A vision for the BMW Region
4.1
A vision for the BMW Region
During the Foresight process, a vision of the BMW Region in 2025 emerged as:
An innovative, knowledge-based and competitive region, with a high quality
environment, first class infrastructure, visionary leadership and a quality of life
for its citizens that is among the highest in the world.
The vision emerged from the four panels and implies a careful balancing of quality of life; competitiveness; innovation and knowledge, the four main themes around which the Foresight process was organised. From these four panels, five main components were identified as essential means by which the vision can be achieved.
The five components will provide a focus for the BMW Region to construct a new, desirable future while anticipating, responding to and embracing the challenges facing the BMW Region in an increasingly globalised and changing economy and society. Whilst these five components were identified as essential means to achieving the vision, two cross-cutting themes of equality of opportunity and sustainability constantly surfaced during the Foresight process as important principles to be adhered to across all components and measures.
Figure 2. The Strategic Vision, Components and Cross-cutting Themes
High quality environment for sustainable communities 21st Century Infrastructure Networks Internationally competitive business environment Entrepreneurship and knowledge as cornerstones of prosperity Visionary and effective regional management
VISION
EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY
SUSTAINABILTY
Chapter 4
Where do we want to be in 2025?
A vision for the BMW Region
4.1 A vision for the BMW Region 4.2 The Five Components 4.3 Cross-cutting Themes
