Århus-seminar, Aarhus
Universitet, 21. august 2009
Demokratiseringen af Central- og
Østeuropa: hvilken rolle har EU
spillet?
v. Jørgen Møller
Spor 4: International politik og demokratisering i verden
omkring os
Disposition
1. Forudsigelser, da kommunismen brød sammen
2. Hvordan er det gået?
3. Hvorfor er det gået sadan?
4. Chok terapi kontra gradualisme
5. Hvilken rolle har EU spillet?
„To summarise, price and ownership reforms presuppose each other, as do democracy and constitutionalism. Each of the economic reforms is incompatible with democracy, while constitutionalism is required for the success of ownership reform. If these premises are true, full-scale
reform is impossible. Given the direction of the causal arrows, political reform without a transition to competitive markets is possible, although in the long run democracy will also be undermined if the economy
stagnates. Economic reform within an authoritarian framework is even less plausible‟.
Elster (1990)
Dilemma Theoremet
„Allow me to continue with my “catholic heresy” and suggest that in this setting it will be demogogues, priests, and colonels more than democrats and capitalists who will shape Eastern Europe‟s general institutional identity. Most of Eastern Europe of the future is likely to resemble the Latin America of the recent past more than the
Western Europe of the present. Irony of ironies, it may be earlier writings by American academics on the “breakdown of democracy” in Latin America rather than the recent literature on “transition to democracy” that speaks most directly to the situation in Eastern Europe‟.
Jowitt (1992: 300)
Political regime forms in the post-communist setting, 1990-2007 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Democracies Hybrid Regimes Autocracies
Source: The Freedom House‟s Freedom in the World Survey
Democracies Hybrid regimes Autocracies 1992 Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Poland, Slovenia
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania,
Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Romania, Russia,
Ukraine
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
2007 Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia,
Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia,
Moldova, Ukraine
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
The empirical distribution of political regime forms within the post-communist setting in 1992-2007
The development in GDP per capita, Moldova, 1990-2001, 1990 = 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year G D P p e r c a p it a , c o n s ta n t p r i c e s
GDP per capita (constant prices), 1989-2003, selected countries 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Hungary Estonia Bulgaria Russian Federation Georgia Turkmenistan
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
New EU-members 2004 0.82 0.88 0.97 1.01 1.07 Bulgaria and Romania 0.10 0.32 0.47 0.49 0.47 Belarus, Moldova Russia,
and the Ukraine
-0.50 -0.35 -0.51 -0.70 -0.86
Latin American countries 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.24
EU 15 1.45 1.33 1.31 1.42 1.32
Voice and Accountability, 1996-2004
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
New EU-members 2004 0.35 0.48 0.55 0.65 0.68 Bulgaria and Romania -0.19 -0.23 -0.17 -0.07 -0.06 Belarus, Moldova Russia,
and the Ukraine
-0.68 -0.69 -0.78 -0.83 -0.87
Latin American countries -0.16 -0.18 -0.22 -0.31 -0.33
EU 15 1.67 1.66 1.67 1.56 1.52
Rule of Law, 1996-2004
Tendenserne i et bredere perspektiv
Parliamentary Power Index and Freedom House Index 2004
Sources: Freedom House Country ratings and M. Steven Fish‟s „Parliamentary Power Index‟.
Aktørforklaringer i litteraturen: Parlamentarisme og demokrati
+ Legislature - Legislature + Displ - Displ + Displ - Displ Democracy + Ref CZE
EST HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN BGR ROM - Ref Defective Democracy + Ref MKD ALB MNG
- Ref MDA GEO UKR
Autocracy + Ref - Ref ARM KGZ RUS AZE BLR KAZ TJK TKM UZB The full proximate typology with empirical referents, 2005
+ Legacies - Legacies + Mod - Mod + Mod - Mod
Democracy + West + Nooil CZE EST HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN BGR ROM - Nooil - West + Nooil - Nooil Defective Democracy + West + Nooil MKD UKR ALB MDA - Nooil - West + Nooil GEO MNG - Nooil Autocracy + West + Nooil BLR - Nooil - West + Nooil ARM KGZ TJK - Nooil RUS AZE KAZ TKM UZB The full deep typology with empirical referents, 2005
Proximate package
Full presence Mixed score Full absence
Deep package
Full presence CZE EST HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN Mixed Score MKD ALB ARM BGR GEO KZG MDA MNG ROM RUS BLR TJK UKR
Full absence AZE KAZ TKM UZB
The full typology of deep and the proximate packages with empirical referents
