ISSN 1440-771X
Australia
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/
April 2011
Working Paper 05/11
Real Exchange Rate Movements in Developed
and Developing Economies: An Interpretation of
the Balassa-Samuelson’s Framework
Taya Dumrongrittikul
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-<FCI;<CIH CIF GHI8M K9 8=J=89 H<9 85H5 G9H =BHC HKC ;FCIDG 89J9@CD=B; 5B8 89J9@CD98 97CBCA=9G K<9B 5DD@M=B; D5B9@ H97<B=EI9G -56@9 =B DD9B8=L F9DCFHG H<9 H9GH F9GI@HG :CF 6CH< IB=J5F=5H9 5B8 D5B9@ IB=H FCCH H9GHG +9GI@HG :CF .,65G98 5B8 KCF@865G98 J5F=56@9G 5F9 ;=J9B IB89F H<9 <958=B;G =B GI6 7C@IAB 5B8 GI67C@IAB F9GD97H=J9@M #H =G 7@95F H<5H @C; F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9G > @C; F95@ !* D9F 75D=H5 F5H=CG E
E 5B8 @C; HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@G DD C: H<9 F9:9F9B79 7CIBHFM F9@5H=J9 HC H<9 8CA9GH=7 7CIBHFM 5F9 577CF8=B; HC 5@@ IB=H FCCH H9GHG 'CF9CJ9F H<9 IB=H FCCH H9GH CB> 75B 69 =AD@=7=H@M IG98 HC H9GH H<9 J5@=8=HM C: H<9 *** 7CB8=H=CB 6975IG9 H<=G 7CB8=H=CB =AD@=9G H<5H F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9G 5F9 GH5H=CB5FM G G<CKB =B -56@9 K9 OB8 H<5H *** 8C9G BCH <C@8 =B 89J9@CD=B; 5B8 89J9@CD98 ;FCIDG K<=7< 7CFF9GDCB8G HC H<9 ," H<5H H<9 8=V9F9B79 =B F9@5H=J9 HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=H=9G 75B @958 HC D9FG=GH9BH 89J=5H=CB :FCA @CB;FIB 9EI=@=6F=IA C: F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 ACJ9A9BHG #B H<9 B9LH G97H=CB K9 K=@@ =BJ9GH=;5H9 H<=G =895 IG=B; D5B9@ 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG
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09 OFGH@M 9AD@CM H<9 GH5B85F8 H=A9 G9F=9G 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG =B CF89F HC =BJ9GH=;5H9 H<9 9L=GH9B79 C: 5BM @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=DG 69HK99B F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5B8 J5F=56@9G C: H<9 =BH9F9GH ,9J9F5@ H9GHG =B7@I8=B; H<9 B;@9 5B8 !F5B;9F 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CB H<9 K9=;<H98 GMAA9HF=7 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GH =BHFC8I798 6M CC? 5B8 /CI;5G H<9 9FFCF7CFF97H=CB H9GH 65G98 CB H<9 @5;;98 89D9B89BH J5F=56@9 6M 5B9F>99 5B8 H<9 6CIB8G H9GH=B; 5DDFC57<9G 89J9@CD98 6M *9G5F5B 9H 5@ 5F9 9AD@CM98 HC;9H<9F K=H< 7F=H=75@ J5@I9G 7CADIH98 :FCA 9AD=F=75@ 8=GHF=6IH=CBG 5B8 =H HIFBG CIH H<5H H<9M DFC8I79 @=HH@9 9J=89B79 CB
H<9 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=DG 69HK99B F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9G 5B8 H<9 J5F=56@9G C: =BH9F9GH #B CF89F HC 5G79FH5=B K<9H<9F H<=G =G H<9 7CBG9EI9B79 C: @CK DCK9F 75IG98 6M G<CFH GD5BG C: 85H5 G9F=9G H<9 %*,, H9GH :CF H<9 BI@@ C: GH5H=CB5F=HM DFCDCG98 6M %K=5H?CKG?= 9H 5@ 5B8 ,<=B =G 5DD@=98 5B8 K9 OB8 H<5H H<9 BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G 75BBCH 69 F9>97H98 =B ACGH 7CIBHF=9G 7CBG=GH9BH K=H< H<9 9L=GH9B79 C: 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG<=D 5ACB; J5F=56@9G -<=G 7CBHF58=7H=CB GI;;9GHG H<5H H<9 H9GH F9GI@HG :FCA G=B;@99EI5H=CB H9GHG 5F9 IBF9@=56@9 6975IG9 H<9M GIV9F :FCA IB5779DH56@M @CK DCK9F 8I9 HC H<9 G<CFH @9B;H< C: 85H5 =9 CIF G5AD@9 G=N9G J5FM :FCA 5 @CK C: :CF /=9HB5A HC :CF 89J9@CD98 97CBCA=9G -<9 F9GI@HG C: H<9G9 H9GHG 5F9 5J5=@56@9 IDCB F9EI9GH 6IH 5F9 BCH DFCJ=898 <9F9 6975IG9 C: GD579 7CBG=89F5H=CBG
09 HIFB HC D5B9@ H97<B=EI9G 5DD@=98 HC 7CIBHF=9G =B 89J9@CD=B;7CIBHFM 5B8 7CIBHF=9G =B 89J9@CD987CIBHFM ;FCID=B;G IG=B; H<9 D5B9@ 5GD97H C: CIF 85H5 HC 9LHF57H 69HH9F =B:CFA5H=CB 09 5DD@M G9J9B F9G=8I5@65G98 H9GHG GI;;9GH98 6M *98FCB= -<9 H9GHG C: *98FCB= 5F9 65G98 CB H<9 BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G H<5H :CF 957< 7CIBHFM =B 5 D5B9@ J5F=56@9G C: =BH9F9GH 5F9 BCH 7C=BH9;F5H98 5;5=BGH H<9 5@H9FB5H=J9 H<5H H<9F9 9L=GHG 5 G=B;@9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCF :CF 957< 7CIBHFM =B D5B9@ -<9G9 H9GHG 5GGIA9 7FCGGG97H=CB5@ =B89D9B89B79 =B 9FFCF H9FAG "CK9J9F =: H<9F9 5F9 7CAACB :57HCFG H<5H 9V97H 5@@ 7CIBHF=9G =B 5 ;FCID H<9B H<9G9 9FFCF H9FAG 5F9 @=?9@M HC 69 7FCGGG97H=CB5@@M 7CFF9@5H98 -<9F9:CF9 K9 =B7@I89 5 G9H C: 7CAACB H=A9 8IAA=9G =B H<9 <MDCH<9G=N98 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CB HC 7CBHFC@ :CF 7CAACB H=A9 9V97HG =B D5B9@G 5B8 HC C6H5=B =B89D9B89BH F9A5=B=B; 8=GHIF65B79G -<5H =G K9 9GH=A5H9 =B8=J=8I5@ 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CBG =B7@I8=B; H=A9 8IAA=9G K<=@9 5@@CK=B; :CF <9H9FC;9B9CIG @CB;FIB 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 57FCGG A9A69FG IG=B;
5 AC3 4<? A (7 #
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CF H<9 75G9 C: 7CBGHFI7H=B; *98FCB=QG BCBD5F5A9HF=7 GH5H=GH=7G K9 9GH=A5H9
33B 5B8 :CF H<9 75G9 C: D5F5A9HF=7 GH5H=GH=7G K9 9GH=A5H9 33 3B
09 7C@@97H H<9 F9G=8I5@G :FCA H<=G 5IHCF9;F9GG=CB (9LH K9 IG9 H<9G9 F9G=8I5@G HC 7CADIH9 H<9 @CB;FIB J5F=5B79 C:B =B H<9 :CFA9F 75G9 5B8B =B H<9 @5HH9F 75G9-<9B FIB H<9 8=V9F9B798 F9;F9GG=CB
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GH5H=GH=7 H<9 ;FCID HGH5H=GH=7 BCBD5F5A9HF=7 5B8 H<9 ;FCID HGH5H=GH=7 D5F5A9HF=7 5F9 65G98 CB H<9 69 HK99B 8=A9BG=CB =B CH<9F KCF8G H<9M 5F9 65G98 CB 9GH=A5HCFG H<5H G=AD@M 5J9F5;9 H<9 =B8=J=8I5@@M 9GH=A5H98 5IHCF9;F9GG=J9 7C9U7=9BHG :CF 957< 7CIBHFM 7 -<9F9:CF9 =H =G C6J=CIG H<5H ;=J9B H<9 BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G C: BC 7C=BH9;F5H=CB " :CF 5@@7 H<9 K=H<=B8=A9BG=CB65G98 GH5H=GH=7G 5GG9GG H<9 5@H9FB5H=J9 <MDCH<9G=G C: 5 7CAACB J5@I9 :CF H<9 5IHCF9;F9GG=J9 7C9U7=9BH :CF 5@@7K<=@9 H<9 69HK99B8=A9BG=CB65G98 GH5H=GH=7G 5@@CK :CF <9H9FC;9B9=HM C: H<9 5IHCF9;F9GG=J9 7C9U7=9BHG 57FCGG =B8=J=8I5@ 7CIBHF=9G :CF 5@@
7IB89F H<9 5@H9FB5H=J9
09 =BJ9GH=;5H9 H<9 J5@=8=HM C: H<9 ," =B 6CH< .,65G98 5B8 KCF@865G98 J5F=56@9G 6M H9GH=B; :CF @CB;FIB 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG<=DG 69HK99B > 5B8 E E K=H< M 69=B; 7CAACB@M IG98 =B H<9 @=H9F5HIF9 5G 5 A95GIF9 C: DFC8I7H=J=HM 5B8 >5B8 DD K<=7< =G H<9 HFI9 J9FG=CB C: H<9 ," -<9 <MDCH<9G=N98 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CB :CF H<9G9 H9GHG 5F9
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-56@9 -<9 H9GH F9GI@HG :CF *98FCB=QG 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG CB 89J9@CD98 5B8 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G +:+145+* 49386/+7 +:+145/3- 49386/+7 +*643/?7 8+78 $"('7+ &461* ('7+ $"('7+ &461* ('7+ E E E E E E E E &/8./3*/2+37/43 *5B9@ JGH5H=GH=7 *5B9@ F<CGH5H=GH=7 *5B9@ **GH5H=GH=7 *5B9@ GH5H=GH=7 +8;++3*/2+37/43 !FCID F<CGH5H=GH=7 !FCID **GH5H=GH=7 !FCID GH5H=GH=7 (CH9 -<9 BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G =G BC 7C=BH9;F5H=CB =B8=75H9 5B8 G=;B=O75B79 @9J9@ F9GD97H=J9@M -<9 7F=H=75@ J5@I9 =G 89H9FA=B98 6M H<9 GH5B85F8 BCFA5@ 8=GHF=6IH=CB -<9 @5; @9B;H< =B HMD9 F9;F9GG=CB C: *98FCB=QG H9GHG =G G9@97H98 6M ,7<K5FN =B:CFA5H=CB 7F=H9F=5 K=H< 5 A5L=AIA C: @5;G
-<9 F9GI@HG C: H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG 5F9 DF9G9BH98 =B -56@9 #H =G C6J=CIG H<5H 5@@ G9J9B H9GH GH5H=GH=7G 75B @958 HC 8=V9F9BH 7CB7@IG=CBG 9GD97=5@@M =B H<9 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHFM ;FCID 77CF8=B; HC *98FCB= H<9 7CAD5F5H=J9 58J5BH5;9G C: 957< H9GH GH5H=GH=7 =B H9FAG C: GA5@@ G5AD@9 G=N9 5B8 DCK9F DFCD9FH=9G 89D9B8 CB H<9 IB89F@M=B; 85H5;9B9F5H=B; DFC79GG !* "CK9J9F *98FCB= G<CKG H<5H =: H<9 BIA69F C: 7FCGGG97H=CB5@ IB=HG # 5B8 H=A9 D9F=C8G( =B 5 !* K=H< K<9F9 =G H<9 5IHCF9;F9GG=J9 7C9U7=9BH C: F9G=8I5@G H<9 D5B9@H GH5H=GH=7 5B8 H<9 ;FCIDH GH5H=GH=7 <5J9 <=;<9F DCK9F H<5B CH<9F H9GH GH5H=GH=7G -<9F9:CF9 K9 K=@@ :C7IG CB H<9 F9GI@HG C: :CIF H9GH GH5H=GH=7G H<9 D5F5A9HF=7 D5B9@ HGH5H=GH=7 5B5@C;CIG HC H<9 HGH5H=GH=7 H<9 BCBD5F5A9HF=7 D5B9@ HGH5H=GH=7 5B5@C;CIG HC H<9 *<=@@=DG 5B8 *9FFCB GH5H=GH=7 H<9 D5F5A9HF=7 ;FCID HGH5H=GH=7 5B5@C;CIG HC H<9 HGH5H=GH=7 5B8 H<9 BCBD5F5A9HF=7 ;FCID HGH5H=GH=7 5B5@C;CIG HC H<9 *<=@@=DG 5B8 *9FFCB GH5H=GH=7
-56@9 G<CKG H<5H =B 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G H<9 BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G C: BC 7C=BH9;F5H=CB 69HK99B>5B8 EE 5G K9@@ 5G > 5B8 D D =G F9>97H98 5H H<9 @9J9@ C: G=;B=O75B79 =B 6CH< .,65G98 5B8 KCF@865G98 75G9G -<=G =AD@=9G H<5H H<9F9 5F9 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=DG =B @9J9@G 69HK99B H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5B8 97CBCA=7 ;FCKH< 5G K9@@ 5G 69HK99B H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5B8 H<9 HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ =B H<9 ;FCID C: 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G "CK9J9F =B CF89F HC 9L5A=B9 H<9 J5@=8=HM C: H<9 ," =H =G B979GG5FM HC 7CBG=89F H<9 G=;B C: 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG :CF H<=G ;FCID -<=G =G 9L5A=B98 =B H<9 B9LH G97H=CB -<9 H9GH F9GI@HG :CF 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G G<CK GCA9 9J=89B79 GIDDCFH=B; 5 @CB; FIB F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5B8 97CBCA=7 ;FCKH< "CK9J9F =H =G BCH 7@95F K<9H<9F H<9 HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ <5G 5 @CB;FIB 9V97H CB H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 CF BCH 09 K=@@ 9L5A=B9 H<=G F9@5H=CBG<=D @5H9F J=5 D9FG=GH9B79
-C 7<97? H<9 FC6IGHB9GG C: H<9 H9GHG K9 5DD@M 09GH9F@IB8QG 9FFCF7CFF97H=CB65G98 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GH *9FGMB 5B8 09GH9F
@IB8 09 OB8 H<5H 6CH< H9GHG =B8I79 G=A=@5F F9GI@HG ,99 -56@9 =B DD9B8=L
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
#B H<9 @=H9F5HIF9 GCA9 5HH9BH=CB <5G 699B D5=8 HC H<9 9GH=A5H=CB C: D5B9@ 7C=BH9;F5H98 F9;F9GG=CB AC89@G -<F99 7CAACB 5DDFC57<9G IG98 HC 9GH=A5H9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG =B D5B9@ 85H5 5F9 CF8=B5FM @95GH GEI5F9G )&, :I@@M AC8=O98 )&, ')&, GI;;9GH98 6M *98FCB= 5B8 8MB5A=7 )&, )&, DFCDCG98 6M %5C 5B8 <=5B; '5F? 5B8 ,I@ 5B8 *98FCB= #B ;9B9F5@ H<9M 5@@CK :CF <9H9FC;9B9CIG G<CFHFIB 8MB5A=7G 5B8 DCC@ H<9 =B:CFA5H=CB 5@CB; H<9 K=H<=B8=A9BG=CB CF 5@CB; H<9 69HK99B8=A9BG=CB 89D9B8=B; CB H<9 @CB;FIB <MDCH<9G=G C: =BH9F9GH %5C 5B8 <=5B; 5B8 *98FCB= 9L5A=B9 H<9 DFCD9FH=9G C: H<9 )&, ')&, 5B8 )&, 9GH=A5HCFG =B 5 7C=BH9;F5H98 F9;F9GG=CB 5B8 H<9M OB8 H<5H H<9 )&, 9GH=A5HCF <5G GA5@@9F G=N9 8=GHCFH=CBG 5B8 CIHD9F:CFAG H<9 CH<9FG =B 6CH< OB=H9 5B8 =BOB=H9 G5AD@9G -<5H =G H<9 )&, 5B8 ')&, 9GH=A5HCFG 5F9 GH=@@ 69 6=5G98 =B OB=H9 G5AD@9G 8I9 HC H<9 9B8C;9B9=HM C: H<9 F9;F9GGCFG 5B8CF H<9 G9F=5@ 7CFF9@5H=CB =B 8=GHIF65B79G
CF H<=G F95GCB K9 9AD@CM H<9 D5B9@ )&, 9GH=A5HCF =B CIF GHI8M -<9 A5=B :95HIF9 C: )&, =G H<5H =H IG9G H<9 8=V9F9B79G C: D5GH 5B8 :IHIF9 J5@I9G C: 7C=BH9;F5H98 J5F=56@9G HC 7CBHFC@ :CF H<9 9B8C;9B9=HM 5B8 G9F=5@ 7CFF9@5H=CB (9LH K9 <5J9 HC 897=89 <CK HC DCC@ H<9 85H5 CF H<9 K=H<=B8=A9BG=CB 9GH=A5HCFG 89J9@CD98 6M %5C 5B8 <=5B; 5B8 '5F? 5B8 ,I@ H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 5F9 <CAC;9B9CIG 57FCGG 7CIBHF=9G 5@H<CI;< H<9M 5@@CK :CF <9H9FC;9B9CIG G<CFHFIB 8MB5A=7G =B8=J=8I5@GD97=O7 OL98 9V97HG 5B8 5 @=A=H98 89;F99 C: 7FCGGG97H=CB5@ 89D9B89B79 -<=G K=@@ 69 F95GCB56@9 =: 7CIBHF=9G =B 5 D5B9@ <5J9 G=A=@5F :95HIF9G GI7< 5G 7CIBHF=9G =B H<9 IFC 5F95 "CK9J9F ;=J9B H<5H 957< 7CIBHFM ;FCID =B CIF 85H5 G9H =B7@I89G A5BM 7CIBHF=9G :FCA 8=V9F9BH F9;=CBG H<9 5GGIADH=CB C: <CAC;9BCIG 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 57FCGG =B8=J=8I5@G G99AG HC 69 HCC F9GHF=7H=J9
CBG9EI9BH@M K9 7<CCG9 HC IG9 H<9 ;FCIDA95B D5B9@ )&, 9GH=A5HCFG GI;;9GH98 6M *98FCB= H<5H IH=@=N9 H<9 69HK99B8=A9BG=CB 5GD97H C: H<9 D5B9@ -<9 69HK99B8=A9BG=CB 9GH=A5HCFG <5J9 7CAD5F5H=J9 58J5BH5;9G =B H9FAG C: ;F95H9F P9L=6=@=HM =B H<9 DF9G9B79 C: <9H9FC;9B9=HM C: H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 5B8 <5J9 5 ACF9 IG9:I@ =BH9FDF9H5H=CB 5G =H 75B 69 F9;5F898 5G H<9 A95B J5@I9 :CF H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 'CF9CJ9F *98FCB= GHI8=98 H<9 GA5@@ G5AD@9 DFCD9FH=9G C: H<9 K=H<=B8=A9BG=CB 5B8 69HK99B8=A9BG=CB 9GH=A5H9G
5B8 :CIB8 H<5H H<9 ;FCIDA95B D5B9@ )&, 9GH=A5HCFG 5DD95F HC <5J9 @CK9F GA5@@G5AD@9 6=5G H<5B H<9 K=H<=B8=A9BG=CB D5B9@ )&, 9GH=A5HCFG
#B CIF GHI8M H<9 )&, F9;F9GG=CBG :CF 957< 7CIBHFM 5F9 9GH=A5H98 HC C6H5=B 7CIBHFMGD97=O7 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG IG=B; >1EE E E CF >DD DD B -<5H =G K9 5I;A9BH98 H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CBG 5B8 K=H< @958 5B8 @5;;98 8=V9F9B79G C: H<9 F9;F9GGCFG &5; @9B;H<G 5F9 7<CG9B 6M # K=H< 5 A5L=AIA @5; 5B8 @958 C: HC 7CBHFC@ :CF H<9 9B8C;9BCIG :998657? 9V97H (CH9 H<5H =B CF89F HC 577CIBH :CF 5B 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 7F=G=G 5 7<5B;9 =B F9;=A9 C: H<9 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 CF 5B 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 DC@=7M 7<5B;9 K<=7< A=;<H =B8I79 =FF9;I@5F 69<5J=CF C: F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9G =B GCA9 D9F=C8G K9 =B7@I89 H<9 H=A9 8IAAM J5F=56@9G :CF H<5H D5FH=7I@5F D9F=C8 =B H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9;F9GG=CBG FCA H<9G9 F9;F9GG=CBG K9 75B 7CBGHFI7H H<9 ;FCIDA95B D5B9@ )&, 9GH=A5HCFG IG=B; #
5B8 #
K<9F9 5B8 5F9 H<9 7CBJ9BH=CB5@ )&, 9GH=A5HCF :CF H<97 7CIBHFM =B H<9 D5B9@
C@@CK=B; H<9 ," K9 9LD97H 6CH< 5B8 HC 69 DCG=H=J9 -56@9G 5B8 =B DD9B8=L 8=GD@5M H<9 9GH=A5H9G C: H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; 7C9U7=9BHG :FCA )&, F9;F9GG=CB K<9B H<9 ., =G IG98 5G H<9 F9:9F9B79 7CIBHFM 5B8 K<9B H<9 F9:9F9B79 7CIBHFM =G H<9 F9GH C: H<9 KCF@8 #ADCFH5BH@M =H =G =BH9F9GH=B; HC BCH9 H<5H =B H<9 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G H<9 ;FCIDA95B G@CD9 9GH=A5H9G C: H<9 D9F 75D=H5 !* F5H=C 5F9 DCG=H=J9 H5?=B; H<9 J5@I9 C: K<9B ., =G IG98 5G H<9 F9:9F9B79 5B8 K<9B H<9 KCF@8 =G IG98 5G H<9 F9:9F9B79 -<=G A95BG H<5H H<9F9 =G 5 DCG=H=J9 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B 97CBCA=7 ;FCKH< 5B8 H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 -<5H =G <=;<9F ;FCKH< 7CIBHF=9G K=@@ H9B8 HC <5J9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5DDF97=5H=CB -<=G F9GI@H =G 7CBG=GH9BH K=H< H<9 DF9J=CIG GHI8M C: <CB; 9H 5@ K<=7< @98 HC H<9=F 7CB7@IG=CB H<5H :5JCF98 H<9 ," =B ) 7CIBHF=9G "CK9J9F H<=G F9@5H=CBG<=D 8C9G BCH 57HI5@@M =AD@M H<5H H<9 ," 9V97H 9L=GHG =B 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G 6975IG9 H<9 5DDF97=5H=CB C: F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 =G BCH H<9 7CBG9EI9B79 C: DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< =B HF5898 G97HCFG 5G GH5H98 =B H<9 ," G G<CKB =B -56@9 K9 OB8 9J=89B79 H<5H H<9 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ 69HK99B HF5898 5B8 BCBHF5898 ;CC8G =B H<9 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G <5G 5 B9;5H=J9 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=D K=H< H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 K=H< 5 G@CD9 9GH=A5H9 C: :CF H<9 ., F9:9F9B798 75G9 5B8 :CF H<9 KCF@8 F9:9F9B798 75G9 -<5H =G K<9B DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< =B HF5898 ;CC8G F9@5H=J9 HC H<5H =B BCBHF5898 ;CC8G =B7F95G9G H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 H9B8G HC 89DF97=5H9 =B7CBG=GH9BH K=H< H<9 ," )B9 DCGG=6@9 F95GCB :CF H<=G GHCFM =G 5 J=C@5H=CB C: *** =B HF5898 ;CC8 C: H<9G9 7CIBHF=9G "CK9J9F H<9 F9GI@HG 5F9 7CBG=GH9BH K=H< H<9 OB8=B;G C: 8K5F8G
H<5H DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< =B HF5898 G97HCFG F9@5H=J9 HC BCBHF5898 G97HCFG 89DF97=5H9G H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 0<=@9 H<9 ," 9LD@5=BG H<9 9V97HG C: DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< 7CFF9GDCB8=B; HC H<9 9V97H C: =B7CA9 9V97HG 89A5B8 9V97HG K<=7< 8CA=B5H9 GIDD@M 9V97HG 8K5F8G AC89@ 9LD@5=BG H<5H DFC8I7H=J=HM DFC;F9GG 75B 89DF97=5H9 H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 =: DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< <5G DCG=H=J9 GIDD@M 9V97HG 5B8 =: H<9G9 ACF9 H<5B CVG9H 89A5B8 9V97HG #B H<=G 75G9 =H A=;<H 69 6975IG9 KCF?9FG ACJ9 :FCA HF5898 G97HCFG =BHC BCBHF5898 G97HCFG G K9 89OB9 DFC8I7H=J=HM 5G H<9 F5H=C C: !* HC H<9 BIA69F C: 9AD@CM98 KCF?9FG ACJ=B; HC BCBHF5898 G97HCFG F9GI@HG =B 5B =B7F95G9 C: H<9 DFC8I7H=J=HM =B HF5898 ;CC8G 5B8 5 897F95G9 C: H<9 DFC8I7H=J=HM =B BCBHF5898 ;CC8G #: GIDD@M 9V97HG 8CA=B5H9 =B7CA9 9V97HG 5B =B7F95G9 =B <IA5B F9GCIF79G C: H<9 BCBHF5898 G97HCF KCI@8 =B HIFB 9L7998 GIDD@M =B BCBHF5898 ;CC8G 5B8 H<IG 5 897F95G9 =B H<9=F DF=79G H<9 +M67NMBG?= DF=B7=D@9 -<=G =AD@=9G 5 89DF97=5H=CB =B F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9G
-56@9 G<CKG H<5H H<9F9 =G AC89F5H9 9J=89B79 H<5H 97CBCA=7 ;FCKH< =B 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G <5G 5 B9;5H=J9 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CB K=H< H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 K=H< 5 ;FCID A95B G@CD9 9GH=A5H9 C: :CF H<9 ., F9:9F9B798 75G9 5B8 :CF H<9 KCF@8 F9:9F9B798 75G9 -<5H =G 7CAD5F5H=J9@M F5D=8 ;FCKH< =B 89J9@ CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G =G 577CAD5B=98 6M F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 89DF97=5H=CB -<=G OB8=B; =G =B @=B9 K=H< H<9 7IFF9BH 7CBHFCJ9FGM CJ9F H<9 IB89FJ5@I5H=CB C: G=5B 7IFF9B7=9G
G H<9 F9GI@HG C: 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG G<CK =H =G BCH 7@95F K<9H<9F H<9 HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ =B 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G <5G 5 @CB;FIB 9V97H CB H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 CF BCH #: H<9 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ <5G 5 @CB;FIB F9@5H=CBG<=D K=H< H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 H<=G F9@5H=CB K=@@ G5H=G:M H<9 ," #H =AD@=9G H<5H DFC8I7H=J=HM ;FCKH< =B HF5898 ;CC8G K=@@ 69 :C@@CK98 6M F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5DDF97=5H=CB 5G H<9 G=;B C: 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG =G DCG=H=J9 =B 6CH< H<9 ., F9:9F9B798 75G9 5B8 H<9 KCF@8 F9:9F9B798 75G9 )B H<9 CH<9F <5B8 =: H<9F9 =G BCH 5 @CB;FIB 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 5B8 H<9 HF5898BCBHF5898 DFC8I7H=J=HM 8=V9F9BH=5@ F9;F9GG=CB :CF 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G 75B 69 GDIF=CIG -<9 7CB7@IG=CB H<5H H<9 F95@ 9L7<5B;9 F5H9 ACJ9A9BH =B 89J9@CD=B; 7CIBHF=9G G5H=GO9G H<9 ," A=;<H 69 KFCB;
+67/78+3)+ 64>1+ 5564').
#B H<=G G97H=CB K9 :C7IG CB H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 A9H<C8 :CF 9GH=A5H=B; H<9 H=A9 DFCO@9G C: H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 9V97HG C: G<C7?G CB 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG -<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 89J9@CD98 6M *9G5F5B 5B8 ,<=B =G 5 A95GIF9 C: H<9 GD998 C: 7CBJ9F;9B79 HC 5 @CB;FIB 9EI=@=6F=IA H<5H IG9G 5 J5F=5B7965G98 5DDFC57< 5B8 =H DFCJ=89G IB=EI9 H=A9 DFCO@9G F9;5F8@9GG C: H<9 DF=CF CFH<C;CB5@=N5H=CB C: H<9 G<C7?G #B CIF GHI8M K9 K=@@ 7CBGHFI7H D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9G :CF 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG =B CF89F HC =BJ9GH=;5H9 H<9 GD998 C: 7CBJ9F;9B79 HC 9EI=@=6F=IA =B F9GDCBG9 HC 5 GMGH9AK=89 G<C7? 5B8 IG9 H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 5DDFC57< 5G 5 7CAD@9A9BH5FM HCC@ :CF 7<97?=B; H<9 J5@=8=HM C: 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG K9 C6H5=B :FCA H<9 =B8=F97H 7C=BH9;F5H=CB H9GHG 5G D9F:CFA98 =B ,97H=CB -<9 :C@@CK=B; =G 5 6F=9: GIAA5FM C: D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 5DDFC57<
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:J97HCF C: G<C7?G 5GGIA98 HC 69 G9F=5@@M IB7CFF9@5H98 K=H< N9FC A95B 5B8 5 7CBGH5BH J5F=5B797CJ5F=5B79 A5HF=L .G=B; H<9 9J9F=8;9 5B8 (9@GCB 897CADCG=H=CB H<9 GMGH9A 75B 69 KF=HH9B 5G C C! /;2 K<9F9 ! ! 5B8
(CH9 H<5HC=G H<9 GH5H=CB5FM 7CADCB9BH C:09 5GGIA9 H<5H H<9F9 9L=GH F 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG GI7< H<5H H<9? J97HCF . =G GH5H=CB5FM 5B8 GC 5 B979GG5FM 5B8 GIU7=9BH 7CB8=H=CB :CF 7C=BH9;F5H=CB =B8=75H9G H<5H K<9F9 =G H<9 @CB;FIB AI@H=D@=9F A5HF=L K=H< F5B? :? .G=B; H<=G 897CADCG=H=CB K9 75B C6H5=B 5 IB=EI9 8MB5A=7 7<5F57H9F=N5H=CB :CF H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG."9B79 H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG.75B BCK 69 KF=HH9B 5G .C . .G=B; K9 C6H5=B . . A -<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 =B H<9 7CBH9LH C: H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CB =G 89OB98 5G 6 *. *. 6 -<9 A5HF=L 6 =G 89OB98 5G H<9 8=V9F9B79 69HK99B H<9 7CB8=H=CB5@ J5F=5B79G C: H<9 <GH9D5<958 5B8 H<9 <GH9D5<958 :CF975GHG C: 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG ;=J9B H<9 =B:CFA5H=CB G9H ID HC H=A9 A CF
H<=G F95GCB =H =G F95GCB56@9 HC 7CBG=89F H<9 A5HF=L 5G 5 A95GIF9 C: H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 CBG=89F H<9 75G9 K<9F9 ? =B CIF GHI8M 5B8 =G 5B : 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCF -<9 G75@98 A95GIF9 C: H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9 C:. 89BCH98 6M 5 J97HCF66 =G
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&95J=B; H<9 H<9CF9H=75@ 5GD97HG C: H<9 D9FG=GH9B79 DFCO@9G 5G=89 :CF BCK K9 HIFB HC H<9 EI9GH=CB C: <CK HC 9GH=A5H9 H<9 =AD57H C: G<C7?G HC 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG GGIA9 H<5H H<9: J97HCF =G =BH9;F5H98
5B8 :C@@CKG 5* &= F9DF9G9BH5H=CB -<5H =G
K<9F9 9 = 5F9:: 7C9U7=9BH A5HF=79G ,IDDCG9 H<5H H<9F9 9L=GH? 7C=BH9;F5H=B; F9@5H=CBG =B H<9 GMGH9A 5B8 GCK<9F95B8 5F9:?A5HF=79G K=H< F5B? ? :-F5BG:CFA=B; =BHC H<9 /97HCF FFCF CFF97H=CB AC89@ /' K9 <5J9 K<9F9 :CF9 = 5B8 -<=G 9LDF9GG=CB 5@@CKG IG HC =ADCG9 H<9 7C=BH9;F5H=B; J97HCFG 5G @CB;FIB F9GHF=7H=CBG -<=G 75B 69 8CB9 6M 7F95H=B; . 5B8 H<9B K9 F9;F9GG CB H<9 =BH9F79DH . 5B8 FCA 9EI5H=CBG 5B8 K9 75B KF=H9 H<9 /+D D5F5A9H9FG=B H9FAG C:5B8 :CF9 =
09 IG9 H<9G9 56CJ9 F9@5H=CBG HC;9H<9F K=H< 9GH=A5H9G C: 5B8:FCA H<9 /' HC ;9B9F5H9 9GH=A5H9G C::CF9 = -C 5DD@M &9AA5 C: *9G5F5B 5B8 ,<=B K9 5GGIA9 H<5H H<9 /+D GD97=O75H=CB
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