■ S O C I A L S C I E N C E S RESEARCH CONFERENCE
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN i
ON
a n dsocio-
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
L. T Badenhorst University o f Witmtemand Johannesburg
;enire for Applied Social Sciences University of Natal
King G eorge V Avenue Durban 4001 South Africa
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INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF NATAL, DURBAN: 1962.
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SOCIO-ECONOM IC D E V E L O P M E N T
(P a p e r rea d at the S o c ia l S c ie n c e s R e s e a r c h C o n fe re n ce ! U n iv ersity o f N atal, D urban. July, 1962)
L# T .B a d e n h o rs t,
D epartm ent o f S o c io lo g y ,
U n iv ersity o f the W itw a tersra n d.
B e fo r e turning to the m ain s u b je ct o f this p a p e r, it m a y be advisable to take a b r i e f lo o k at the back grou n d o f the p r o b le m . A su rv e y o f the m o s t im portan t fa cts re la tin g to our m o s t u r g e n t,
and se e m in g ly in so lu b le , w o rld population p ro b le m w ill a llow us to se e the s p e c ific re la tio n sh ip s betw een population grow th and s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t in the righ t p e r s p e c t iv e .
R e ce n tly the w o d d p op u la tion p a sse d the 3,000 m illio n m a r k . It is grow in g at an u n preceden ted and a c c e le ra tin g rate o f (1 .7 p e r c e n t p. a . ). This rate o f in c r e a s e , if continued, w ill lea d to a doubling o f the w o rld popu lation in about 40 y e a r s . B y the y e a r 2000, when hum anity w ill n u m ber 6,000 m illio n , grow th ra te s w ill be such (on the b a s is o f ra th e r c o n se rv a tiv e e s tim a te s ) that the population w ill double again in on ly 23 y e a r s .
It is estim a ted that o v e r 100 m illio n b a b ie s w e re b o r n in the w o rld during 1959, and that som e 50 m illio n p eop le died •• The resu ltin g annual in c r e a s e o f about 50 m illio n a lm o st equ als the e n tire population o f the United K in gdom .
A c c o r d in g to c a r e fu l e stim a te s b y the F o o d and A g r ic u ltu r a l O rgan ization o f the United States, m o r e than h a lf o f the human r a c e do not get enough to ea t. In a r e c e n t p e r io d (1 9 4 7 -5 3 ) the w o r ld 's fo o d prod u ction in c re a s e d b y 8% , a re m a rk a b le a ch ievem en t fo r a g ricu ltu re and one not lik e ly to be r e p e a te d . But during the sam e sev en y e a r s the w o r ld 's population in c r e a s e d b y 11% ; at the end o f the p e rio d hum anity was h u n g rie r than at its begin n in g. In fo r ty y e a r s th ere w ill be tw ice as m any p e o p le , and with the b e s t s u c c e s s that m a y re a so n a b ly be e x p e cte d w ith r e g a r d to food p rod u ction ; th ere m a y be tw ice as m u ch fo o d a v a ila b le ; so s t ill m o r e than h a lf the p eop le w ill be u n derfed, but the ab solu te n u m ber then w ill be tw ice as g re a t.
1, United Nations. Demographic Yearbook, 1959. New York.
Cio tre for Applied Social Sciences University of Natal
King George V Avenue Durban 4001
I South Africa
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E ven if one is r e la tiv e ly o p tim istic about actual and potential natural r e s o u r c e s and the d ev elop m en t and sp rea d o f te ch n o lo g y and th eir e ffe c t on fo o d p ro d u ctio n and other n e c e s s it ie s o f life , it is obviou s that p re s e n t ra te s o f in c r e a s e cannot continue fo r any length o f tixxie. E ith er b irth ra tes m u st be red u ced o r death ra tes m u st in c re a s e » It is sim p le a rith m e tic that i f the cu rre n t ra tes o f b irth s and deaths, and the resu ltin g g e o m e t r ic ra te o f in c r e a s e , a re continued into the fu ture, hum an r e p ro d u ctio n w ill co m p le te ly outrun any estim a te o f p rod u ction , no m a tte r how la r g e ^ •
The p rin cip le and the im p lica tio n s a re th e r e fo r e c le a r : co n sid e rin g the w o rld population as a w h ole, low death ra tes a re in com p a tib le w ith high b irth ra tes in the lon g run. What about s h o r t -t e r m d e v e lo p m e n ts? A s r e c e n tly as 1953,. C olin C lark, a ss u m in g a rate o f in c r e a s e o f w orld population o f 1 .1 % fo r 1950 and estim atin g that the w o rld cou ld fe e d 12,000 m illio n p e o p le , con clu ded that population grow th constitu ted no s e r io u s th reat to m a n 's e x is te n ce on ea rth This a s s e s s m e n t is e x tr e m e ly s h o r t
sigh ted, to sa y the le a s t, in view o f the fa c t that a population o f 12,000 m illio n cou ld quite p o s s ib ly be re a ch e d b y 2023»
It is an u n r e a lis tic a b s tra ctio n to talk about the "w o r ld
popu lation p r o b le m " , o r the in c re a s e o f w o rld popu lation in r e la tio n to m an k in d 's ca p a city to fe e d , h ou se and clothe a g row in g num ber o f p e o p le . Though we liv e in one w o r ld , th ere is n o w o rld g o v e r n m en t w hich c a r r ie s r e s p o n s ib ility fo r p rov id in g a d e ce n t standard o f livin g fo r its c itiz e n s . We h a ve, r a th e r, a s e r ie s o f national p r o b le m s ; e a ch individual cou n try is con fron ted w ith its own p e c u lia r population p r o b le m . The p r o b le m a lre a d y stated is e n hanced b y the v e r y uneven d istrib u tio n o f w o rld population and r e s o u r c e s . F o r ex a m p le , A s ia has m o r e than h a lf o f the w o r ld 's population, but on ly o n e -fifth o f the land a re a . The a v e ra g e n u m ber o f a ra b le a c r e s p e r p e r s o n is estim a ted at only 0 .7 o f an
2. A n sle y J. C o a le . " In c r e a s e s in E xpectation s o f L ife and P o p u la tion G row th " in International P opu lation C o n fe re n ce , V ienna 1959, p. 36. C oale s a y s : "In about 6,500 y e a r s , i f cu rre n t grow th c o n . tinues, the descen dan ts o f the p r e s e n t w o rld popu lation w ould fo r m a so lid sp h ere o f liv e b o d ie s expanding w ith a r adial v e lo c it y that, n e g le c tin g rela tiv ity ,'w ou ld equal the v e lo c it y o f l i g h t ." W hether o r not our grow th rate is m aintained fo r a few y e a r s , o r even ce n tu rie s , u ltim a tely b irth ra te s m u st fa ll o r death ra te s go u p . "
3 . C olin C lark, "P o p u la tio n G row th and L ivin g Standards, In ter- national L abou r R e v ie w , A u g. 1953.
a c r e in A s ia (0. 1 in Japan), co m p a re d to 2 .9 a c r e s in N orth ern A m e r ic a , 4 .7 in A u stra lia and Ney/ Z ealand, 2 .6 in the U .S .S .R ., N orthern A m e r ic a and the U .S .S * R . a ls o have v a st tr a c ts o f land suitable fo r a g ricu ltu re w h ich are not bein g cu ltivated, as w e ll as la rge fo r e s t and m in e ra l r e s e r v e s . In p r o p o r tio n to its population, A sia has a m uch s m a lle r sh are o f su ch r e s o u r c e s . It is tru e that m any o f the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d cou n tries in A fr ic a n and L atin A m e r ic a have trem en dou s r e s e r v e s o f unused natural r e s o u r c e s , but they la c k the capital and te c h n ica lly tra in ed p e rs o n n e l to d ev elop th e m . In fa ct, the d istrib u tion o f m a n -m a d e equipm ent and o f m an pow er suitable fo r em ploym en t in an advanced m o d e rn e c o n o m y is ev en m o r e unequal than the d istrib u tion o f natural r e s o u r c e s .^ The W orld 's g rea t in du stria l in stalla tion s a re con cen tra ted la r g e ly in a few cou n tries o f E urope and N orth A m e r ic a , w hile the p o o r nations a re handicapped by a la ck o f the m o s t sim p le to o ls and im p le m e n ts, and a gra ve sh ortage o f p e rs o n n e l with ev en an e le m e n ta ry e d u ca tion . Although the need fo r a c e rta in m in im u m edu cation is now g e n e r a lly r e c o g n iz e d , the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s a re still lagging fa r behind in this r e s p e c t ; fo r ex a m p le, 79 p e r -c e n t o f the population in T urkey, 85 p e rce n t in E gypt, and 90 p e r c e n t in India are unable ' to re a d and w r ite .
A t the sam e tim e, population grow th is m o st r a p id in the e c o n o m ic a lly u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d a rea s w h ere w e ll o v e r h a lf the w o r ld 's peop le now liv e in a b je ct p o v e r ty . A t le a s t two th irds o f all the b a b ies b o r n ea ch y e a r f ir s t see the ligh t o f day in A fr ic a , A s ia and Latin A m e r ic a . L atin A m e r ic a is grow in g fa s te r than any other m a jo r r e g io n (at 2 .5 p e r c e n t p . a . in 1 9 5 4 -5 8 ). In ce rta in parts o f A fr ic a and Southern A s ia , the population is grow in g a lm o st equ ally fa st (1 .9 % p . a . f o r the w hole o f A fr ic a , and 1 .8 % p . a . fo r A sia , exclu d in g Japan). W estern E u rope has the slo w e st grow th (0 .6 % p . a . ) w hile the United States and the S oviet Union are in cre a sin g at about the w o rld a v e r a g e . H ow ev er, these fig u re s c o n c e a l g re a t v a ria tio n s in grow th b etw een the v a rio u s c o u n tr ie s . F o r e x a m p le , in A fr ic a , E gypt, A lg e r ia ,
T u n isia and M o r o c c o now have an estim a ted annual rate o f in c r e a s e o f betw een 2. 5 and 3% ; in A sia , India has a rate o f 2. 0 % ,m ainland China 2 .5 % 5, Indonesia 2 .5 % , C e y lo n 2 .7 % , the P h ilipp in es 2 .8 % , M alaya 3% , and F o r m o s a 3 .5 % ; in L atin A m e r ic a , an annual grow th rate has b e e n o b s e r v e d o f 3 .6 % f o r V e n e z u e lla , 3 .4 % fo r M e x ico , 3 .3 % fo r H onduras, 2 .9 % fo r C o sta R ic a , 2 .5 % to 3 .0 % 4 . C f. United N ations, P opu lation G row th and the Standard o f L ivin g
in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d C o u n trie s, New Y ork , 1954.
5. C f. R oland P r e s s a t , " L a P opu la tion de la Chine et son E c o n o m ic " , in P opu la tion , 1958.
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f o r B r a z il. A rate o f 3% p . a. m ean s doubling the population in 24 y e a rs and a n in eteen fold m u ltip lica tio n in a cen tu ry if m aintained.
Such ra te s o f in c re a s e a re e n tir e ly unheard o f at any oth er p e rio d o f human h is t o r y . Enough Indian b a b ies a re being b o r n to add (nett o f deaths) another New Y o rk C ity dto the w orld*s population e v e r y y e a r, and enough Chinese b a b ies to add another South A fr ic a .
What about the im m ediate fu tu re ? The v e r y co n se rv a tiv e e stim a tes o f the United Nations (assu m in g som e d e clin e in fe r tility in the n ea r fu tu re) e x p e ct the w o rld population to grow m o r e ra p id ly than at any tim e in h is to r y during the next few d e c a d e s . Growth w ill be fa ste s t in those a lrea d y o v e r cr o w d e d , a g ra ria n cou n tries w h ere le v e ls o f liv in g a re lo w e st and w h ere no e ffe c tiv e b irth c o n tro l is p r a c t ic e d . (M ost o f A s ia - e x ce p t Japan and I s r a e l- A f r ic a and t r o p ic a l Latin A m e r ic a ). A m o r e m o d e ra te rate o f grow th m a y be ex p ected in the e c o n o m ic a lly m atu re cou n tries w h ere liv in g le v e ls a re high and w h ere fa m ily lim ita tio n is now in c re a s in g ly p r a c tic e d to co n tro l n u m b e rs. (A ll cou n tries o f E u ro p e , and S oviet Union, the United S tates, Canada, Japan and the T em perate Zone cou n tries o f L atin A m e r ic a and O cean ia) Thus the gap betw een the "h a v e "
and "h a v e -n o t" nations a re bound to w iden during the y e a r s ahead ; and not only as r e g a rd s population and population grow th but a lso in r e s p e c t o f w ealth, e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t and standard o f liv in g .
This s p e c tr e , to m y m in d, con stitu tes the g re a te st s o c ia l, e c o n o m ic and p o litic a l p r o b le m w ith which m an is con fron ted in the 20th C entury. A r e c e n t United Nations r e p o r t ph ra sed the d ile m m a in th ese w o r d s : "T h e grow th of worid popu lation during the next tw en ty- five y e a r s , t h e r e fo r e , has an im p orta n ce w hich tra n scen d s e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l co n sid e r a tio n s. It is at the v e r y h e a rt o f the p r o b le m of our ex iste n ce . . . " 7
Som e authors c o m fo r t th e m se lv e s w ith the idea that " i t has all happened b e f o r e " - that th ere was a rapid expa n sion o f population in E urope during the 19th C entury ® , and that the p r o b le m so lv e d it s e lf.
6. In 1900 there was one E uropean fo r e v e r y two A sian s ; b y the y e a r 2000 there w ill p ro b a b ly be fo u r A sia n s fo r e v e r y E u ropean and tw ice as m any L atin A m e r ic a n s as N orth ern A m e r ic a n s .
7 . United N ations, R e p o rt on the W orld S o cia l Situation, New Y o rk , 1957.
8. It has b een estim a ted that b etw een 1750 and 1900 the population o f E urope and its em ig ra n t o ff-s h o o t s o v e r s e a s in cre a se d n e a r ly fo u r -fo ld .
T h ese p eop le a re deluding t h e m s e lv e s . T o d a y 's p r o b le m o f the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s is e n tir e ly d iffe r e n t fr o m that o f the E u ropean cou n tries a hundred y e a r s a g o .
(1) F ir s t , both the popu lation and population den sity a re in co m p a ra b ly g r e a te r in m o s t o f the under -d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s toda y than th ey w e re in E u rope b e fo r e the In du strial B e v o lu tio n .
(2) S econ d, the E u ropean b ir th ra te , ev en b e fo r e m o d e r n b irth c o n tro l m eth ods w e re known, w as w e ll b e lo w the p re s e n t b irth ra tes in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d c o u n tr ie s .
(3) T h ird, in E u rope the d e clin e in the death rate did n ot p r e c e d e e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t but ca m e about p a rtly as a .co n se q u e n ce o f the im p ro v e m e n t in liv in g con d ition s and kept pa ce with this d ev elop m en t. M o r e o v e r , m e d ic a l tech n iqu es and d is e a s e c o n tr o l m eth od s, w hich a re now both cheap and e ffic ie n t, have b e e n i m p orted to co u n trie s w h ere they a re a cen tu ry o r two ahead o f the w ay o f life o f the p eop le The fa c t is that m e d ic a l p r o g r e s s now en ables m en to liv e lo n g e r on a v e ra g e w ithout th eir standard o f livin g b ein g r a is e d . M ed ica l p r o g r e s s having gained a m a r c h on e c o n o m ic p r o g r e s s , it has b e c o m e p o s s ib le fo r m o r e p eop le to liv e lo n g e r under w o r s e co n d itio n s.
(4) F ou rth , o v e r s e a s e m ig r a tio n h elped E u ropean co u n trie s during the 19th and e a r ly 20th C entury to e sca p e som e o f the e c o n o m ic d iffic u ltie s to w hich the rapid grow th o f th e ir population m igh t oth erw ise have le d , b e fo r e high b irth ra tes w e re adjusted to fa llin g death r a te s . A c c o r d in g to one e stim a te , the population o f E urope in 1910 was 88 m illio n le s s than it w ould have b e e n i f th ere had b e e n no e m ig ra tio n a fte r 1800 *0. T oday the d e n s e ly populated u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s have h a rd ly any opportu n ities to e a se th eir d iffic u ltie s b y m ean s o f e m ig r a tio n :
(i) T h ere a re no lo n g e r any g re a t "o p e n s p a c e s " on earth with plentiful and in exp en sive a g ricu ltu ra l land such as f o r ex a m p le , North and South A m e r ic a , A u stra lia and New Zealand p re se n te d in the 19th C entury.
(ii) The high c o s t o f p r e s e n t-d a y m ig ra tio n , o f tra n sp ortin g equipping and esta b lish in g a g ricu ltu ra l s e ttle r s in new su rrou n din gs w hich m a y take la rg e ca p ita l sum s to p re p a re and m ain tain .
9^ C f. A .S a u v y , "T h e E c o n o m ic , S o cia l and P o lit ic a l P r o b le m s cau sed b y the In cre a se in W orld P o p u la tio n ", in H um anity and S u b s is te n ce , A nnales N estle, 1961, p . 31
• C f. United N ations, P op u la tion G row th and the Standard o f L ivin g in U n d er-d ev elop ed C o u n trie s, p . 8, New Y o r k , Í9 5 4 .
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(iii) The dem and fo r im m igra n ts in cou n tries o f im m ig r a tion is la r g e ly fo r sk ille d and s e m i-s k ille d w o r k e rs in indu stry and trade fo r w hich em igra n ts fr o m the o v e r-p o p u la te d cou n tries do not qu a lify .
( i v ) A n y poten tial m ig ra tio n , w hich m a y be e c o n o m ic a lly fe a s ib le , w ill o ffe r no r e l ie f in view o f the v e r y la r g e nu m bers
re q u ire d to have any e ffe c t on population tren ds in d e n se ly populated under -d e v e lo p e d c o u n tr ie s . Just to keep A s ia ’ s popu lation station ary would r e q u ire the e m ig ra tio n o f som e 25 m illio n p eop le p e r y e a r - w h ich is , o f c o u r s e , an a b su rd ity under p r e s e n t-d a y w o rld co n d itio n s.
(v) T h ere a re s e v e r e r e s t r ic t io n s on im m ig ra n ts i n m o s t cou n tries both on the righ t o f en try and o f the types o f em ploym en t in w h ich they m a y en g a ge. The opin ion is w id e ly h eld, and e n tren ch ed in le g is la tio n , that s u c c e s s fu l im m ig ra tio n r e q u ir e s that the r a c ia l and cu ltu ra l backgrou n d o f im m ig ra n ts should be su b stan tially the sam e as that o f the cou n try o f settlem en t.
5. F in a lly , population grow th in m any u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s toda y e x ce e d b y two o r three tim es the rate o f in c re a s e in W estern E u rope in the 19th C entury. A m on gst o th e rs, rapid grow th it s e lf o ffe r s a se v e r e o b sta cle to redu cin g fe r tility in that it im p ed es the s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic changes that tend to redu ce the b irth rate ^ .
When co n sid e rin g the c o m p le x in te r -re la tio n s h ip s b etw een two sets o f fa c to r s (d em og ra p h ic trends and e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l d e v e lop m en t) it is con venien t fr o m an a n a ly tica l point o f v iew to tre a t f ir s t the influ en ce o f one se t on the oth er, and then to d ea l with in flu en ces in the opp osite d ir e c tio n . In d isc u s sin g the re le v a n t fa cts co n ce rn in g popu lation and natural and m a n -m a d e r e s o u r c e s obtaining in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s , the m ain points rela tin g to the influ en ce o f e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l d evelopm en t on population grow th have a lre a d y b een touched on. This influence (o f e c o n o m ic grow th on d em o g ra p h ic tre n d s) m u st operate through one or m o r e o f the th ree determ in an ts o f population grow th, i . e . b ir th s , deaths and m ig ra tio n . In r e c e n t tim e s , the th e o ry o f "d e m o g ra p h ic tr a n sitio n "
has b een w id e ly a cce p te d as a th e o r e tic a l fr a m e -w o r k w hich enables s o c ia l sc ie n tists to co m e to g rip s with the c o m p le x p r o b le m o f the in te r -re la tio n s h ip s betw een d e m o g ra p h ic, s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic v a r ia b le s . This th eory , w hich is p a rtly the ou tcom e o f e ffo r ts to
r e a s o n about the future c o u r s e o f population trends in cou n tries w h ich a re e m e rg in g fr o m a state o f e c o n o m ic u n d e r-d e v e lo p m e n t in the lig h t o f the d e m o g ra p h ic ev olu tion e x p e rie n ce d b y co u n trie s that have b e c o m e in du strialized^ and have adhieved r e la tiv e ly high le v e ls 11. C f. A n sle y J . C oale and É dgár M . H o o v e r, P opu lation grow th and
E c o n o m ic D evelop m en t in L o w -In co m e C ou n tries, P r in ce to n , 1958, pp. 15 - 17.
o f liv in g , have b e e n su m m a rize d as fo llo w s
’ ’ The c la s s ic a l e c o n o m ic th eory o f population grow th (p r im a r ily a s s o c ia te d with M althus) held that any r is e in in co m e s (p a r tic u la r ly am ong the p o o r e r c la s s e s ) tended to in c r e a s e b irth ra tes and (with m o r e certa in ty and fo r c e ) to d e c r e a s e death r a t e s * 1*
’'T he c o u r se o f events sin ce Malthus* t im e ,h o w e v e r , has led to the gradual ev olu tion o f a th e o ry that postu lates a m o r e c o m p lic a ted sequ en ce o f b irth and death ra tes as ty p ic a lly a s s o c ia te d w ith e c o n o m ic d evelopm en t. It is so m e tim e s te rm e d the th e o r y o f the
"d e m o g ra p h ic tr a n s itio n " " . . .
"In b a r e s t outline the sequ en ce o f ev en ts, a c c o r d in g to the th e o ry o f d e m o g ra p h ic tra n sition , can be su m m a rize d as fo llo w s :
The a g ra ria n lo w -in c o m e e c o n o m y is c h a r a c te r iz e d b y the high b irth and death rates - the b irth ra te s r e la tiv e ly sta b le, and the death ra tes fluctuating in re sp o n se to va ryin g fo r tu n e s. Then as the e c o n o m y changes its fo r m to a m o r e interdepen den t and s p e c ia liz e d m a r k e t - dom inated e co n o m y , the a v e ra g e death rate d e c lin e s . It continues to d e clin e under the im p a ct o f b e tte r o rg a n iza tion and im p rov in g m e d ic a l know ledge and c a r e . Som ew hat la te r the b irth rate b egin s to f a ll.
The two ra tes pursue a m o r e o r le s s p a r a lle l downward c o u r s e w ith the d eclin e in the b irth rate lagging b eh in d. F in a lly , as fu rth er redu ction s in the death rate b e c o m e h a r d e r to attain, the b irth rate again a p p roa ch es equality with the death rate and a m o r e gradual rate o f grow th is r e -e s t a b lis h e d w ith, h o w e v e r, low risk s Of m o r ta lit y and sm a ll fa m ilie s as the t y p ic a l pattern . M orta lity ra te s a re now r e la tiv e ly stable fr o m y e a r to y e a r and b irth ra tes - now r e s p o n s iv e to volu n ta ry d e c is io n s ra th e r than to d e e p ly im bedded cu sto m s - m a y fluctuate fr o m y e a r to y e a r . This sh ort d e s c r ip tio n fits the e x p e r ie n c e o f m o s t co u n trie s w h ose e c o n o m ie s have undergone the kind o f re o r g a n iz a tio n we have b e e n ca llin g e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n t.
The p a rt o f the d e s c r ip tio n with the le a s t c e rta in a p p lica b ility is the c h a r a cte riz a tio n o f the fin al stage as a retu rn to a con d ition o f on ly gradu al g r o w t h ."
" A s u p e r fic ia l su rv e y o f the d e m o g ra p h ic situation and apparent p r o s p e c ts in the lo w -in c o m e p o rtio n s o f the w o rld g iv e s re a s o n fo r doubting the a p p lica b ility o f the d e m o g ra p h ic tra n sitio n as an e x a c t d e s c r ip tio n o f the lik e ly c o u r s e o f even ts in th ese a r e a s . "
8
The la s t pa ra gra p h is indeed an u n derstatem en t. The m ain r e s o n s fo r saying this have a lre a d y b een p re se n te d in d isc u s sin g the fundam ental d iffe r e n c e s w h ich e x is t b etw een the situation in the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d cou n tries today, and the d e m o g ra p h ic situation in E u rope and E u r o p e -o v e r s e a s a hundred to two hundred y e a r s a g o.
The w eakn ess o f the th e o ry lie s not so m u ch in its d e s c r ip tio n o f past events but in its value as an in stru m en t to p r e d ic t future o c c u r r e n c e s . F o r ex a m p le, th ere a re c le a r in dication s that the r e p e r c u s s io n s o f e c o n o m ic developm en t and a h igh er p e r capita in com e upon the b irth rate m ay not be the sam e in d iffe r e n t cu ltu re s.
The m a s s e s o f A s ia , A fr ic a and tr o p ic a l South A m e r ic a m a y r e a c t quite d iffe re n tly to e c o n o m ic developm en t, u rban ization and in d u s
tria liz a tio n , ev en i f we m ake the ra th er doubtful assu m ption that in m any p la c e s e x p lo siv e population grow th w ill not p re v e n t a r is e in the standard o f liv in g . And then the q u estion r e m a in s : What types and what d e g r e e o f change in e c o n o m ic condition s w ould be re q u ire d and how m u ch tim e w ould have to ela p se b e fo r e b irth ra tes would fa ll low enough to n e a rly b a lan ce the fa st d eclin in g death ra tes ? A few exa m ples should su ffice to illu stra te this point. In T a iw a n ^ , w h ere death ra tes d e clin e d su bstan tially b e fo r e and during the la st w ar under Japanese adm in istra tion , b irth ra tes rem a in ed unchanged.
In C eylon , w h ere death ra tes have d eclin ed con siste n tly during the la s t fo r ty y e a r s fr o m about 30 p e r thousand to around 10 p e r 1000, th ere has b e e n no im portan t d eclin e in fe r t ilit y . In m any cou n tries su ch as Egypt^^ and-India th ere is no d iffe re n tia l fe r tility
b etw een cou n try and city (nor on su ch in d ice s as occu p a tion , p o s s e s s io n o f land in r u r a l a r e a s , o r c a s te ). A c c o r d in g to the 1951 cen su s o f India, in T r a v a n c o r e -C o c h in the num ber o f ch ild re n e v e r b o r n to w om en 45 and o v e r who a re still m a r r ie d was 6 ,6 am ong the ru ra l population and 6. 4 am ong the urban population.
Much the sam e is true o f ou r own n on -w h ite populatioh in this cou n try - Indians, Bantu and even C o lo u re d . In a su r v e y c o n ducted in A le x a n d ra Tow nship, Johannesburg *6, the b irth rate was found to be 4 4 .2 p e r 1000 in this urban grou p, w hich c o r r e sp o n d s c lo s e ly to estim a te s fo r a ll Bantu in South A f r ic a . A t the sam e tim e an infant m o r ta lity rate o f Í 31 was esta b lish e d , w hich r e fle c t s the ra p id ly declin in g death ra tes under urban co n d itio n s.
13. C f. G eorg e W .B a r c la y , C olon ia l D evelop m en t and P opu lation in Taiwan, P r in ce to n , 1954, p . 147 * "
14« C f. M . A .E l- B a d r y , "S om e A s p e c ts o f F e r tility in E gypt11, The M ilbank M e m o ria l Fund Q u a rterly, V o lX X X IV , N o .l.p p . 22-43^
15. C f. K in gsley D avis, The P opu lation o f India'and P akistan , pp. 7 0 -8 2 , and the National Sam ple Survey, N o. 7, Couple F e r tility , G ovt, o f India, 1955.
16. L* T .B a d e n h o rs t and B . U n terh alter, nA Survey o f F e r t ilit y and Infant M orta lity in an Urban A fr ic a n C om m unity11, P opu la tion
Studies, V o l. X V , N o. 1 1961. —
One m ay ask , what about Japan - the on ly cou n try in A sia w h ich has b e e n able to m o d e r n iz e its e c o n o m y and go fa r tow a rds m aking the d e m o g ra p h ic tra n sitio n ? A s a r e s u lt o f im m en se e ffo r t in the fie ld o f in d u stria liza tio n and u rban ization as w e ll as a g ricu ltu re , and v e r y d r a s t ic m e a su r e s in b irth c o n tr o l ( s t e r i l i zation and a b o rtio n fo r e c o n o m ic r e a s o n s ) Japan has re d u ce d h e r b irth rate from about 40 p e r thousand to about 19 p e r 1000 sin ce
1920, The sam e p r o c e s s e s h o w e v e r, have led to a re d u ctio n in h er death rate fr o m about 19 to 8 p e r 1000, w hich - in spite o f w e ll o v e r a m illio n le g a l a b ortion s p e r y e a r - s till re su lts in an annual grow th rate o f 1. 1 p e r c e n t p . a . M o r e o v e r , "n o t even the m o s t o p tim istic view o f In d ia 's p o s s ib le e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t during the next th irty y e a r s w ould en tail the a ch ievem en t o f a d e g re e o f in d u stria liza tion o r the a ch ievem en t o f le v e ls o f in co m e lik e those p re v a ilin g in Japan in the l9 2 0 , s M B y 1930, n e a r ly 80 p e rce n t o f Japan’ s net output (and 50 p e r c e n t o f its la b ou r f o r c e ) could be cre d ite d to the n o n -a g r ic u ltu r a l s e c t o r s o f the econ om y*® . In India, 83 p e r cen t o f the popu lation s t ill d e riv e th eir liv e lih o o d fr o m a g r ic u ltu r e . In fa ct, we can con clu d e this d is c u s s io n b y stating em p h a tica lly that it is h igh ly question able w hether the s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic change lik e ly to take p la ce in the next twenty o r th irty y e a r s in co u n trie s such as India, China, Indonesia, M alaya, Egypt, P a k istan , m o s t parts o f A fr ic a and t r o p ic a l L atin A m e r ic a , w ill have any g re a t e ffe c t on fe r t ilit y .
We m u st now lo o k at-the oth er side o f the p ic tu r e : How d oes population a ffe c t e c o n o m ic grow th and the standard o f liv in g ?
M ore p r e c is e ly , how do d e m o g ra p h ic tren ds in flu en ce the p e r capita in co m e o f the popu lation in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d c o u n tr ie s ?
Space d oes not a llow a sy ste m a tic su rv e y o f the trea tm en t o f this su b je ct in e c o n o m ic th e o ry sin ce M althus, f o r ex a m p le, the
c la s s ic a l s c h o o l (p a r tic u la r ly A dam Sm ith and David B ic a r d o ), the n e o - c la s s i c a l e c o n o m is ts (A lfre d M a rsh a ll), the stagnation th e o r is t s (K eynes and his s u c c e s s o r s ) and the w ork o f e c o n o m is ts lik e Sch u m peter, H ansen, H a rrod and D om ar w ith th e ir v a rie d a p p roa ch es to the esta b lish m en t and m ain ten an ce o f e c o n o m ic grow th , taking population c h a r a c t e r is t ic s into a cco u n t *9,
17. C f. A n sle y J . C oale and E d g a r M .H o o v e r , o p . c it p .5 8 .
18. C f. W illia m W. L o ck w o o d , The E c o n o m ic D ev elop m en t o f Japan, P r in ce to n , 1954, p . 103.
19. C f. V in cen t Heath W hitney, "P o p u la tio n in T h e o rie s o f E c o n o m ic D ev elop m en t" in International P opu la tion C o n fe r e n c e , V ienna,
1959, p . 149 ff. ‘
10
N either w ill an attem pt b e m ade h e re to s e t forth the m o r e re ce n t attem pts b y d e m o g ra p h e rs and e c o n o m ists to a r r iv e at a m o r e s p e c ific defin ition o f the re la tio n sh ip o f population v a ria b le s to oth er v a r ia b le s in the p r o c e s s o f developm en t, (e . g . S pengler, C oa le, L eib en stein , N otestein , B elsh aw , Sauvy, S toln itz). We w ill fo cu s our attention m e r e ly on a few illu stra tiv e ex a m p les o f how ce rta in im portan t d e m o g ra p h ic fa c to r s h in der e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m en t and a r is e in p e r capita in co m e in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s .
(P a re n th e tica lly , I m a y ju s t say that th ere is a g re a t need fear the d ev elop m en t o f an in tegrated d e m o g ra p h ic and e c o n o m ic th e o ry in this fie ld - one w hich w ill lead to a m o r e p r e c is e statem ent o f the d ir e c t and in d ir e ct e ffe c ts o f population v a r ia b le s upon other c o -e x is t in g v a r ia b le s that a re c o lle c t iv e ly the ultim ate determ in an ts
o f e c o n o m ic g row th ). /
L et us first c o n s id e r the q u estion o f population s iz e in re la tio n to p e r capita in co m e in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n tr ie s . We have a lrea d y r e fe r r e d to the g re a t n u m bers in m o s t o f the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d
cou n tries and th eir p ro p o rtio n a te ly sm a ll sh a re o f n atural r e s o u r c e s . In p a rticu la r, these cou n tries su ffe r fr o m an e x c e s s iv e den sity o f a g ra ria n population in r e la tio n to ara b le land. This d ifficu lty e x is ts not on ly in g r o s s ly o v e r -c r o w d e d A s ia but a lso in m o s t cou n tries o f A fr ic a and L atin A m e r ic a , w h ere la rg e am ounts o f unused land is a v a ila b le, but often uninhabited fo r v a riou s re a so n s ^0, The re la tiv e sh orta ge o f land in a d e n se ly populated a g ricu ltu ra l cou n try h a m p ers the ach ievem en t o f an adequate le v e l o f livin g in two
im portan t w a y s. One, the abundance o f la b o u r e n co u ra g e s the use o f m ethods o f p rod u ction w hich re q u ire m u ch la b ou r to p rod u ce a sm a ll re tu rn (the p rin cip le o f dim in ish in g r e tu rn s). S econ d ly, the sm a ll siz e o f fa rm s lim its the a p p lica tion o f advanced techniques w hich are u su ally only p o s s ib le when used on a la r g e s c a le (e c o n o m ie s o f s c a le ). B oth th ese fo r c e s tend tow ards red u ced p e r capita in com e •
The th e o ry o f optim um population - w hich is nothing but an e x e r c is e in com p a ra tiv e e c o n o m ic sta tics - has b een c r it ic iz e d fo r o v e r -e m p h a s iz in g the r o le o f lim ite d and fixed land as a fa c to r of p rod u ction and la r g e ly ign orin g the state o f know ledge and sk ill o f the population. N eglectin g fo r a m om en t the e ffe c t o f a change in oth er fa c to r s o f p rod u ction (notably ca p ita l) on the point o f d im in i
shing retu rn s, it should be pointed out that in m o s t e c o n o m ic a lly
2 0 . In m an y parts o f L atin A m e r ic a and A fr ic a th ere a re m o r e than 200 p e r s o n s dependent on a g ricu ltu re p e r squ are m ile o f a ra b le land.
11
u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s, im p rov in g tech n iqu es and develop in g the s k ills o f the peop le p re s e n t ah even m o r e d iffic u lt p r o b le m than the re la tiv e sh ortage o f lan d. M o st o f the p o o r , d e n s e ly populated cou n tries a re at le a s t ar back w ard s o c ia lly as they a re e c o n o m ic a l
ly , and in a la r g e population liv in g at a su b siste n ce le v e l edu ca tion and train in g, e s p e c ia lly i f th ey a re to be sp rea d e v e n ly o v e r the population, a re slow , c o s t ly and d iffic u lt. Ig n ora n ce, illit e r a c y , su p e rstitio n , tra d itio n a lism and r e s is ta n c e to s o c ia l change is e x tr e m e ly hard to o v e r c o m e in the fa ce o f .low p e r capita in com e and a c h ro n ic sh ortage o f ca p ita l w ith la n d in lim ited .a n d fixed supply.
A m o r e im portan t a s p e c t o f the re la tio n sh ip b etw een popu lation and s o c io - e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t (c o m p le te ly ig n o re d in optim u m population a n a ly sis) is the e ffe c t s o v e r tim e o f changes in the s iz e o f population, ir r e s p e c t iv e o f w h eth er the popu lation at any poin t o f tim e is too sm a ll o r to o la r g e .
We have se e n that m o s t o f the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s a re c h a r a c te r iz e d by low a v e r a g e in co m e , low le v e ls o f edu cation , o f lit e r a c y , o f in vestm en t and savin g, and o f fo r e ig n tr a d e . A t the sam e tim e b ir th ra tes a re high (40 or m o r e p e r 1000) and death ra tes low o r fa llin g , re su ltin g in v e r y high grow th ra te s o f 2 o r 3 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r . P erh a p s the m o s t sig n ifica n t a sp e c t o f the e ffe c t o f population grow th p e r se on .e co n o m ic d ev elop m en t is that the fa s te r the popu lation g r o w s , the m o r e in vestm en ts a re n e c e s s a r y to k eep up or im p ro v e a g iv en le v e l o f p e r capita p ro d u ctio n . With a constant population, it is n e c e s s a r y on ly to r e p la c e w o rn out o r o b so le te equipm ent to m ain tain the le v e l o f p e r c a p ita output.
In a fa st grow in g population, a la rg e addition al in vestm en t is n e c e s s a r y to m ain tain the sam e a v e ra g e am ount o f equipm ent p e r w o r k e r . A ny im p ro v e m e n t in equipm ent w h ich m a y lea d to an in c r e a s e in a v e ra g e output and u ltim a te ly to e c o n o m ic grow th , ca n on ly be a c c o m p lis h e d b y fu rth er in vestm en t, o v e r and above what is re q u ire d b y the grow th o f popu lation . M o r e o v e r , the addition al in vestm en t re q u ire d to r a is e p é r capita output can m o r e e a s ily be saved in an u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d cou n try w ith a slo w e r rate o f in c r e a s e than with a h igh er grow th r a te . A la r g e p r o p o r tio n o f poten tial savings in cou n tries o f high fe r tility n e c e s s a r ily g oes tow ards food and other n e c e s s it ie s fo r the in c re a s in g num ber o f ch ild re n . And b y no m ea n s a ll o f what the p eop le a re a b le to save out o f th e ir m e a g re in c o m e s is a ctu a lly in v ested in p rod u ctiv e in v e stm e n ts.
12
The co n c e p t o f the "ca p ita l-o u tp u t” o r "in v e s tm e n t-in c o m e "
r a t io has b e e n d e v ise d to illu s t r a t e the re la tio n sh ip b etw een p op u la tio n grow th and e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n t^ * . If the ra tio o f capital s to c k to cu rre n t annual output is 3 t o 1, i . e . th ree units o f capital a r e re q u ire d to p ro d u ce one unit o f in c o m e , then this m ea n s that a population grow in g at 1% p . a . m u st in vest 3% o f cu r r e n t output ju s t to m aintain its p e r capita in c o m e , and one g row in g at 3% p . a . m u st in v e st 9% o f c u rre n t output. (T h is is assu m in g that th ere is no te ch n ica l im p ro v e m e n t and on ly ca p ita l and la b ou r e n te rs into p ro d u ctio n ). M ost o f the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n trie s have a rate o f in vestm en t w e ll b e lo w 9% o f p ro d u ctio n , w hich m ean s in a b ility to k eep up the a v e ra g e equipm ent p e r w o r k e r . But i f in com e per
capita is to be r a i s e d , sa y b y 2% , then in a population grow in g at 3% p . a . no le s s than 18% o f c u rre n t output m u st be saved and in vested .
A n oth er illu stra tio n o f how population grow th im p ed es e c o n o m ic dev elop m en t is the a s tr o n o m ic a l absolu te am ounts o f investm en t w h ich w ould b e re q u ire d to p ro v id e the u n d e r -d e v e lo p e d cou n tries with enough equ ipm en t to p e r m it a " s a t is fa c t o r y ” le v e l o f p e r capita prod u ction under cu rre n t grow th con dition s F o r exam ple to equip a ll A s ia w ith an a v e ra g e o f about R 1,400 w orth o f m a ch in e ry and to o ls p e r w o r k e r w ould c o s t an am ount equal to three tim es the national in co m e o f the United States. A gain, it has b e e n estim ated that R 3 6 0 ,00 0,000,000 w orth o f equipm ent would be n eeded to r a is e the a v e ra g e output p e r w o r k e r in the m a jo r p a rt o f A s ia to the le v e l that Japan had re a ch e d b e fo r e the la s t w a r .
I do n ot have tim e to d is c u s s the d e lica te p o litic a l p r o b le m s in v o lv e d in the d ev elop m en t o f the p o o r cou n tries and in p a rticu la r, the d iffic u ltie s and p o s s ib ilit ie s o f obtaining badly needed capital v ia fo r e ig n aid and through the ex p a n sion o f in ter national trade
2 1. C f. Jan T in b ergen : The D esign o f D ev elop m en t, International Bank fo r R e co n str u c tio n and D evelop m en t, New Y o rk , 1955.
22. United N ations: P opu lation G row th and the Standard o f L ivin g in U n d e r-d e v e lo p e d C ou n tries, P opu lation Studies, N o. 20, New Y ork , 1954. See a ls o United N ations, A n a lyses and P r o j e c - tion s o f E c o n o m ic D evelopm en t, New Y ork , 1955.
23. C f. G. H a b e rle r, "P o p u la tio n P r e s s u r e and E c o n o m ic P o lic y in D eveloped and U n d er-d ev elop ed c o u n tr ie s ", in Humanity and S u bsistan ce, A nn ales N estle, 1961, pp. 6 3 -7 3 .
1 only want to s tr e s s in p a ssin g that th ere is little hope that th ese s o u r c e s o f capital w ill su ffice to initiate and m ain tain e c o n o m ic developm en t in back w ard a r e a s . F o r exam ple it has b e e n c a lc u lated that betw een 4 . 4 and 1 3 .2 % o f the national in com e o f d e v e loped cou n tries would have to be tr a n s fe r r e d annually to the u n d er
d eveloped cou n tries in o r d e r to double th e ir p e r capita in co m e in 35 y e a r s ^ . In view o f the u n derlying assu m ption s about the capital c o e ffic ie n t and p r o s p e c tiv e ra tes o f population grow th, this m a y be co n sid e re d a c o n se rv a tiv e e stim a te . But le t us co m p a re with this the actual p ro p o rtio n s o f national in com e in vested o v e r s e a s in r e c e n t y e a r s by som e of the leading c o u n tr ie s . Since the la s t w ar F r a n c e has in vested in its o v e r s e a s t e r r it o r ie s about 1 to 1 .5 % o f its national in co m e ; a ll oth er d ev elop ed cou n tries have rem a in ed w e ll b elow this le v e l, including the United States w hich have spent about 0 .5 % o f its national in co m e on fo r e ig n aid
The third fa c to r w h ich en ters into an an a lysis o f the e ffe c t o f population grow th on s o c i o - e c o n o m ic d ev elop m en t is the age c o m p o sitio n o f the popu lation . The age d istrib u tio n o f a population is profou n dly a ffe cte d b y b irth s and deaths (in a c lo s e d population) and the m a in determ in in g fa c to r is the pa st co u rse o f fe r t ilit y . High fe r tility , su ch as we have in a ll u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d co u n tr ie s , m ean s m any ch ild ren p e r adult. In addition, d e c r e a s e s in m o r ta lity have a r e in fo r c in g e ffe c t on the youthful age s tr u c tu r e . The r e s u lt is that all lo w -in c o m e co u n trie s , as a con seq u en ce o f th e ir high b irth ra tes and d eclin in g m o r ta lity , have a b r o a d ly -b a s e d and sh a rp ly taperin g age p y ra m id .
The p ercen ta g e o f ch ild re n under 15 y e a rs o f age in the u n d e r
develop ed cou n tries o f A sia , A fr ic a and L a tin A m e r ic a is u su a lly in the o r d e r o f 40 p e r c e n t o r m o r e o f the total population, w hile the p r o p o rtio n in E u ropean co u n trie s is on ly b etw een 20 and 30 p e r c e n t.
This m eans a heavy bu rden o f dependent ch ild re n fo r the w ork in g population, w hich m ak es it e x tr e m e ly d iffic u lt i f not im p o s s ib le fo r them to a ccu m u late sa v in gs, the p r e r e q u is ite to capital fo rm a tio n and in vestm en t. It a ls o co m p lica te s the p r o b le m o f p rov id in g the ch ild re n with the edu ca tion that is e ss e n tia l fo r s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic
24. C f. L e o n Tabah, L e P r o b le m e P o p u la tio n - L ivestissern en t - Niveau de V ie. dans le P a ys Sous - D e v e lo p p e s, in L e T ie r s Monde b y G eorg es B a la n d ie r, P a r is , 1956.
25. C f. W. B ra n d, **The W orld P opu la tion P r o b le m 1*, in International P opu lation C o n fe re n ce , V ienna, 1959, p . 28
a dvan cem en t in the long run. In any c a s e g r e a te r expen ditu res on sch o o lin g and ch ild w e lfa re p ro g ra m m e s m u st in evita b ly redu ce the a v a ila b ility o f capital fo r in cre a sin g the p rod u ctiv ity o f la b o u r .
The high ch ildh ood m o r ta lity ra tes in u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d cou n tr ie s cau se expen ditu res on ^children who, b e ca u se they die, m ake no con trib u tion at a la te r tim e to the e c o n o m y . So it se e m s that the fallin g m o r ta lity at you n ger a g e s, allow in g m o r e ch ild re n to su rv ive to adulthood, would m ea n an im p ro v e m e n t in the bu rden o f depen den cy and thus a saving in m a te r ia l r e s o u r c e s . This is a d elu sion . L o n g e r a v era ge life spans m ea n that m o r e m a le s w ill su rv iv e to b e c o m e fa th ers and m o r e fe m a le s w ill attain o r c o m plete th eir re p ro d u ctiv e p e r io d . And i f the high b irth ra te s rem ain ed unchanged, any addition to the adult population im p lie s a p r o p o r tio n ate in c re a s e in the num ber o f b irth s and o f ch ild re n . If death ra tes fa ll, while b irth ra tes re m a in constant, the siz e o f ea ch s u c c e s s iv e gen eration w ill be la r g e r but the a vera ge num ber o f dependent ch ild re n p e r adult w ill be p r a c tic a lly unchanged
In fa c t a n a ly sis show s that the in c re a s e in the num ber o f ch ild re n is indeed som ew hat g re a te r than the r is e in the num ber o f w o rk e rs ^ • So w hile it is true that a d e c r e a s e in childh ood m o r t a lity w ill lead to a la r g e r population at the w ork in g ages than would oth erw ise have re su lte d , it p ro d u ce s an even g r e a te r r is e in the num ber o f ch ild re n w hom the peop le o f p rod u ctiv e age m u st su p port.
This is the p re se n t situation of the u n d e r-d e v e lo p e d cou n tries g e n e ra lly , and they w ill continue to su ffe r the e c o n o m ic handicap o f h ea v y childhood dep endency as long as th eir p re se n t high b irth ra te s continue.
26. F o r an a n a ly sis o f the rela tiv e e ffe c t s o f m o r ta lity and fe r tility d e c r e a s e s on age c o m p o sitio n , se e F .L o r i m e r , "D y n a m ics o f age stru ctu re in a P opu lation with In itially High F e r t ilit y and M o rta lity ", in United N ations, P opu lation B ulletin, N o. 1, pp. 31 - 41.
27. G f. A . J. C o a le , "T h e E ffe c t o f D eclin es in M orta lity on A ge D istrib u tio n ", in T rends and D iffe re n tia ls in M orta lity M ilbank M e m o ria l Fund, New Y o rk , 1956, pp. 125-132 .
L et us con clu d e this su rv e y o f the w o rld population p r o b le m b y quoting fr o m a r e c e n t a d d re ss b y Sir C h a rles D arw in :
“ When we circu m v e n te d the L aw o f the N on -in h erita n ce o f A cq u ire d C h a ra cte rs we ra ise d m an fr o m being m e r e ly the m o s t e ffic ie n t m e m b e r o f the an im al k in gdom into b ein g its m a s t e r . We have got to d is c o v e r a w ay o f circu m v en tin g another natural law , that o f the u n iv e rsa l ten den cy o f a ll sp e c ie s to m u ltip ly in n u m b e rs, if we a re to reta in the good things o f the w orld in anything lik e th eir p r e s e n t f o r m . The d iffic u ltie s a re e n o rm o u s, and I can on ly end b y e x p r e ss in g the hope that they w ill be s o lv e d "
28. C f. "T h e Future N um bers o f S u b sisten ce, Annales N e stle ,
M ankind", in H um anity and Sw itzerlan d, 1961.
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