Presentation to
Dockwise
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Fairstar Heavy Transport NV (“FHT” or the “company”).
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Economic value of Red Box and Green Box projects
Natuna $ 12M Sunrise $ 75M 2 vessels Ichthys $ 175M+ 4 vessels Kitimat $ 50M 2 vessels Browse $ 175M+ 4 vessels Eldfisk $ 12M Solan $ 10M Moho Nord $ 10M SBM FLNG $ 16M Guara Tupi $ 10M Pluto $ 75M 4 vessels IDG Gas $ 20M 2 vessels CMMP Iraq $ 10M Golden Eagle $ 15M Nemba $ 15M Barzan Offshore $ 25M Shtokman Offshore $ 30M 2 vessels Valemon $ 10M Mafumeira $ 25M Brass LNG $ 18M BSR $ 10M Umm Lulu $ 50M Point Thompson $ 50M Prudhoe Bay $ 50M Arrow $ 75M 3 vessels Gorgon $ 500M+ 9 vessels Yamal $ 300M 4 vessels Wheatstone $ 175M+ 4 vessels AP LNG $ 75M 2 vessels Shtokman $ 100M 4 vessels In 2012 and 2013 most of these
projects will award marine transportation
contracts
The lead time from tender
submission to contract award is on
average 15 months
Total segment value approx USD 350 million
Total segment value approx. USD 2 billion
Sylwin deck $ 10M
Fairstar current contracted Red Box/Green Box
backlog (4 years)
Vessel
Number of months contracted
FJORD
29 months
FJELL
23 months
FORTE
44 months
FINESSE
26 months
Total
122 months *
Average dayrate
USD 73,000
Total contract backlog value
USD 303 million
2013 and 2014 assumptions
Revenue
2013
Contracted/Options:
•
365 days @ USD
95,000/day (Gorgon)
Open:
•
N/A
2014
Contracted/Options:
•
66 days @ USD 95,000/day
(Gorgon)
•
67 days @ USD 78,000/day
(Golden Eagle)
Open:
•
232 days @ USD 85,000
day (Assuming 80%
utilisation of the “open”
contracts)
Cost
USD 17,000/day in opex and G&A
FJORD
Revenue
2013
Contracted/Options:
•
365 days @ USD
65,000/day (Gorgon)
Open:
•
N/A
2014
Contracted/Options:
•
108 days @ USD
65,000/day (Gorgon)
Open:
•
257 days @ USD 70,000
day (Assuming 80%
utalisation of the “open”
contracts)
Cost
USD 17,000/day in opex and G&A
2013 and 2014 assumptions (cont’d)
Revenue
2013
Contracted/Options:
•
365 days @ USD
70,000/day (Gorgon)
Open:
•
N/A
2014
Contracted/Options:
•
259 days @ USD
70,000/day (Gorgon)
•
106 days @ USD
70,000/day (Ichthys)
Open:
•
N/A
Cost
USD 17,000/day in opex and G&A
FORTE
Revenue
2013
Contracted/Options:
•
63 days @ USD 81,000/day
(Golden Eagle)
•
53 days @ USD 90,000/day
(CMMP/Saipem)
Open:
•
249 days @ 75,000/day
(Assuming 75% utilisation
of the “open” contracts)
2014
Contracted/Options:
•
300 days @ USD
70,000/day (Ichthys)
Open:
•
65 days @ USD 0 day
Cost
USD 17,000/day in opex and G&A
2013 and 2014 Sales and EBITDA
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
USDm
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
2014
Gross Revenue
34,7
32,5
32,1
30,4
24,5
28,4
30,0
30,0
129,7
112,9
Revenue (Time Charter Equivalent)
27,8
26,0
25,7
24,3
19,6
22,7
24,0
24,0
103,8
90,4
TCE FJORD
8,6
8,6
8,6
8,6
7,8
5,2
6,2
6,2
34,6
25,4
TCE FJELL
5,9
5,9
5,9
5,9
3,5
4,7
5,1
5,1
23,7
18,5
TCE FORTE
6,4
6,4
6,4
6,4
6,4
6,4
6,4
6,4
25,5
25,5
TCE FINESSE
6,8
5,1
4,8
3,4
1,9
6,4
6,4
6,4
20,1
21,0
Operating costs (OPEX/ G&A)
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-6,2
-24,8
-24,8
EBITDA FJORD
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
6,2
3,7
4,6
4,6
28,4
19,2
EDITDA FJELL
4,4
4,4
4,4
4,4
2,0
3,2
3,5
3,5
17,5
12,3
EBITDA FORTE
4,8
4,8
4,8
4,8
4,8
4,8
4,8
4,8
19,3
19,3
EBITDA FINESSE
5,3
3,6
3,2
1,9
0,4
4,8
4,8
4,8
13,9
14,8
EBITDA
21,6
19,8
19,5
18,2
13,4
16,5
17,8
17,8
79,1
65,6
Source: Fairstar
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
apr-10 jul-10 okt-10 jan-11 apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-12 apr-12
% o f ra ting s
Buy Hold Sell
0 5 10 15 20 25 P ric e ( N OK)
Price (NOK) Target price
Analyst perspectives on valuation of Fairstar
# of brokers 6 6 5 6 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Broker
Date
Rating
Target
(NOK)
Upside from
current
trading
ABG Sundal Collier
20-Apr-12
Buy
20.60
113%
SEB Enskilda Research
20-Apr-12
Buy
12.00
24%
RS Platou Markets
Buy
13.00
34%
Terra Markets
Buy
14.00
45%
Median
13.50
57%
Average
14.90
45%
Current trading
9.68
Market perspective on the bid from Dockwise – 1
st
day of trading
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
8:
45
9:
45
10
:4
5
11
:4
5
12
:4
5
13
:4
5
14
:4
5
15
:4
5
16
:4
5
Volume ('000 shares)
FAIR - Volume
FAIR - Price
Share Price
New-build parity analysis
USDm
Replacement cost
FORTE
110
FINESSE
110
FJORD
90
FJELL
90
Total replacement cost
400
Net debt fully funded
255
Implied equity value of Fairstar
145
Total equity value (NOKm)
841
Equity value per share (NOK)
9,4
EBITDA less capex Q3 12 - Q2 14 (contracts)
122
EBITDA less capex Q3 12 - Q2 14 (NPV @ 10%)
110
Value per share of cash flow during newbuild construction period (NOK)
7,1
An acquistion of Fairstar is value accretive to Dockwise
shareholders up to NOK 14 per Fairstar share
Assumptions
― Combination of Dockwise and Fairstar financials using Bloomberg estimates with cost synergies
1
of
USDm 6 per annum (50% in 2013 and 100% in 2014)
― Dockwise takes over all debt of Fairstar and acquires all shares in Fairstar through issuing of new
Dockwise shares at current market value
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
NOK 9.30
NOK 12.0
NOK 14.0
2013 accretion
2014 accretion
1) Cost synergies relate to cost savings on Board remuneration of USDm 2.3, advisory costs of USDm 1.6 (audit, tax and legal), listing costs of USDm 0.1, housing and office related expenses of USDm 1.0, sales and marketing of USDm 0.6 and cost savings on supporting staff of approx USDm 0.4
Contact details - Fairstar Heavy Transport NV
Postal address
Visiting address
P.O. Box 2225
Weena 316-318, Tower A
3000 CE Rotterdam
3012 NJ Rotterdam
The Netherlands
The Netherlands
Philip Adkins (CEO)
M +44 (0)7796 681 414
E
[email protected]
This material has been prepared by Fairstar Heavy Transport NV (“FHT").
This material is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the materials. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of FHT as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. FHT is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Neither FHT nor any of its affiliates, nor any of FHT’s or any of its affiliates, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. © 2012 Fairstar Heavy Transport NV. All rights reserved. Fairstar Heavy Transport NV specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.