Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Puget Sound managers

Western Washington University Western Washington University

Western CEDAR Western CEDAR

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference 2018 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference _{(Seattle, Wash.)}

Apr 6th, 1:45 PM - 2:00 PM

Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Puget Sound managers

Puget Sound managers

Andrea Copping

Pacific Northwest National Lab., United States, [email protected]

Zhaoqing Yang

Pacific Northwest National Lab., United States, [email protected]

Ian Miller

Washington Sea Grant, United States, [email protected]

Jude K. Apple

Padilla Bay NERR, United States, [email protected]

Guillaume Mauger

Univ. of Washington, United States, [email protected]

See next page for additional authors

Follow this and additional works at: https://cedar.wwu.edu/ssec

Part of the Fresh Water Studies Commons, Marine Biology Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, and the Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology Commons

Copping, Andrea; Yang, Zhaoqing; Miller, Ian; Apple, Jude K.; Mauger, Guillaume; Voisin, Nathalie; Fullerton, Aimee; Sun, Ning; and Freeman, Mikaela, "Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Puget Sound managers" (2018). Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference. 560.

https://cedar.wwu.edu/ssec/2018ssec/allsessions/560

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Speaker Speaker

Andrea Copping, Zhaoqing Yang, Ian Miller, Jude K. Apple, Guillaume Mauger, Nathalie Voisin, Aimee Fullerton, Ning Sun, and Mikaela Freeman

Providing Resource Managers with Modeling

Tools on Extreme Events of Climate Change

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Seattle, WA

April 6, 2018

Andrea Copping

Zhaoqing Yang, Mikaela Freeman, Nathalie Voisin, Ning Sun – Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Aimee Fullerton – NOAA Fisheries

Guillaume Mauger, Ian Miller – University of Washington

Jude Apple – Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve

Extreme Events under Climate Change

Extreme events may be more important drivers of change than long term climate change averages, particularly for resources like fish, water supplies

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Objective:

Provide information to assist water resource managers and

planners understand the impacts of extreme events on sustainable fish habitat and human water needs in the Puget Sound basin.

Focus on water resource metrics based on outputs of

climate, hydrologic and coastal models

Outputs based on existing data, not new modeling runs

Themes:

Sustainable fisheries and other human uses of water in the basin

Process is stakeholder driven throughout

Provide information in formats accessible for planning and

management 3

Competing Water Use in the Face of Climate Change: Integrated Analysis to Support Water Resource Planning for Extreme Events

Puget Sound Sub-basins

Chose two sub-basins of differing size, with different biogeophysical attributes, different stakeholder needs.

Watersheds

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Skagit Watershed Council Dungeness River Center

Dungeness

Skagit

Basin type Small (65 sq miles) mountainous.

Limited lowland area. Large (over 1,000 sq miles), mountainous with extensive floodplain and river delta Discharge Small and seasonal Largest freshwater discharge to PS

Stakeholder

groups Agricultural community Municipal water management City of Sequim Tribes Agricultural community Tribes Multiple municipalities Power producers

Salmon Salmon runs in Dungeness, small

estuary connected to Strait Multiple salmonid runs (greatest contribution to PS salmon), large estuary, discharges to Puget Sound

Stakeholder engagement

Stakeholder workshops in Skagit and Dungeness Understand impacts on water use management

Specifically sustainable fish habitat and human water needs (agriculture and water supply)

Determine management needs or concerns for managing under climate change/extreme events

How modeling outputs can be best applied to each watershed

Most useful Information to meet management concerns, accessible format

Stakeholders Participating in Workshops

DUNGENESS

SKAGIT

Workshop Outcomes

• Thresholds for fish survivability: To_{C, flows}

• Predicting extreme events (high flows/low flows)

• Flooding (stormwater etc.)

• Managing irrigation withdrawals

• Land cover changes: restoration and mitigation Salinity intrusion

Climate Dataset – RMJOC II (CRCC dataset)

New projections of future hydrology

includes:

Streamflow Snow pack

Other elements of water balance

Key parameters of this output:

Impacts of calibration Hydrological model Downscaling approach Global climate model

Green house gas scenario

Better characterization of uncertainty,

improved assessment of future climate

May 25, 2018 10

Watershed Modeling Points:

Fish, Ag, and Municipal Water

May 25, 2018 11

Skagit Watershed:

May 25, 2018 12

Dungeness Watershed:

Metrics

Tableau tool - Skagit

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Peak Flow for 100 year flood

Historical Data and Future Scenarios

4 historical datasets

3 future predictions, for two IPCC

climate scenarios (w/

and w/o CO₂ mitigation)

Tableau tool - Dungeness

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Peak Flow for 10 year flood

4 historical datasets

3 future predictions, for two IPCC

climate scenarios (w/

and w/o CO₂ mitigation)

Outcomes and Next Steps

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Finishing up outputs

Webinar for stakeholders in May/June

Develop and test outputs

Likely interactive, web-based, but functionality will be decided by stakeholders

Limitations

Metrics that this project couldn’t address

Unable to model certain outcomes due to available models and/or time limitations

Thank you!

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We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NOAA Climate Program Office and our program officer, Nancy Beller-Simms.

Andrea Copping

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory [email protected]

+1.206.528.3049 Zhaoqing Yang

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory [email protected]