Willem Koelewijn
Willem Koelewijn
Director of Marketing Strategy, Lucent GSM/UMTS
Director of Marketing Strategy, Lucent GSM/UMTS
3GPP Workshop
3GPP Workshop
Nice, February 7-9, 2000
Nice, February 7-9, 2000
Next Generation Wireless:
Next Generation Wireless:
Business Drivers for an All-IP network
Today’s topics
• Key Trends in Mobile
Growth
• 1 Bn subscribers by 2003
KEY TRENDS IN MOBILE
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Contrary to earlier forecast 1 Billion Mark reached in 2003 !!!
Earlier forecasts are
Earlier forecasts are
from Ovum, Analysis,
from Ovum, Analysis,
Merrill Lynch & ADL
Merrill Lynch & ADL Millions of Subscribers
EMC
Nokia Press Release Ericsson
Prepaid has been the major stimulus for growth in Western Europe 2 1 . 4 1 3 1 . 0 5 3 8 .04 5 7 . 2 7 6 5 . 2 5 6 6 6 9 . 5 7 4 .81 8 8 . 9 9 1 . 6 5 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 Germany Luxembourg Sweden Austria Norway Greece UK Netherlands Portugal Italy % % % % % % % % % %
Prepaid New Subscribers as % of total new adds in 4Q98
Business Plans of the most advanced operators show an increase in ARPU in the years to come
)
Sonera’s Domestic Cellular Business (EUR m)
Year Ended December 1997 1998 1999F 2000F 2001F 2002F 2003F 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F
Subscriber ARPU per Month (EUR) 34.6 36.5 37.5 39.5 41.0 42.5 44.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0
Subscriber ARPU per Month (US$) 39.2 41.2 42.4 44.6 46.3 48.0 49.7 50.9 52.0 53.1 54.2
Growth • 1 Bn subscribers by 2003 • Pre-Paid driving • ARPU stabilizing Internet/Data services KEY TRENDS IN MOBILE • 1 Bn subscribers by 2005
lInternet subscribers grew from 62 m in 1996 to more than 170 m in 1999.
lTraffic on the Internet has
been doubling every 100 days.
lAccording to the emerging
digital economy, a USDC
1998 report:
n Over one billion people are
expected to be online by 2005.
Worldwide Internet Users (m)
39 350 450 585 730 900 280 190 145 95 62 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SMS is becoming a major driver for several traffic generation operators
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Total Revenues ($Mil.)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Number of users millions
Subscriber Forecast Revenue Forecast
Volumes of SMS messages sent in W.
Volumes of SMS messages sent in W. Eur Eur. Has doubled in last six months. Has doubled in last six months and now tops 1
Growth
• 1 Bn subscribers by 2003
• Pre-Paid driving today
• ARPU stabilizing Internet/Data services • Growt in Internet • Voice/data convergence KEY TRENDS IN MOBILE
Fixed Mobile Integration
• Network level
n Replication of services n Network-specific content
n Content-driven environments n Seamless, integrated service n Access distinctions minimized
þ wireless and wireline
þ voice and data
wireless network wireless access sub mgmt messaging network admin security billing wireline network wireline access sub mgmt messaging network admin security billing Internet data access sub mgmt messaging network admin security billing
wireless wired data
Internet / packet network (ATM / IP) unified message central security network admin intelligent sub mgmt central billing
Today’s Business Environment Next Generation Communications Networks
Transformation to Seamless Services
Networking Revolution
Growth
• 1 Bn subscribers by 2003
• Pre-Paid driving today…
• ….In Building tomorrow?
• ARPU stabilising Internet/Data services • SMS • Voice/data convergence KEY TRENDS IN MOBILE
Fixed Mobile Integration
• Network level
Growth
• 1 Bn subscribers by 2003
• Pre-Paid driving today
• ARPU stabilising
Internet/Data services
• SMS
• Pick up of VAS subscribers
• Virtual subscribers
• Voice/data convergence
KEY TRENDS IN MOBILE
Fixed Mobile Integration
• End users pull
• All European countries
• Mindshare of executives
• Different phases
Networking Revolution
250 200 150 100 50 Voice Data over Circuits Voice over Packets Time Data Relative Traffic Transition & Convergence Growth 300% Growth 5% Changing Traffic Mix Networks
The explosion of data traffic was caused by/has led to a significant improvement in the cost/performance of packet switched technologies:
- Circuit switching performance doubles every 80 months - ATM Switching performance every 40 months
Today’s topics
•
Key Trends in MobileRequirement for the Next Generation Core Network The next generation core network should:
• Allow for rapid creation of new services
(voice/data/multimedia) leveraging the creativity of
independent software vendors to the fullest
• Be based on a technology with the best cost/performance curve
• Allow voice and data traffic to be combined into one network, with all the associated operation benefits • Be “access-agnostic”
