Electric Vehicles and their

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Electric Vehicles and their

Renewable Connection

How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution

Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series – 10 June 2009 Electric cars - Now! http://www.sahkoautot.fi/eng

Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute PB-CUSP Alliance

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Outline

• Background

• Short history of transport and energy systems

• A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in a new paradigm of sustainable communities

• Global enabling factors:

– Lithium-ion batteries – Mass-market EVs – Smart grids

– Renewable energy

– Green stimulus packages

• Barriers and Opportunities for Australia • How is CUSP pursuing this vision?

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Andrew Background

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20th _Century: ₂₁st _Century:

Age of the combustion engine Age of the electric vehicle

Lower population densities, large travel distances. Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling VKT, smart growth.

Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance. Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles.

Abundant, indigenous petroleum. Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict.

Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere.

Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses. Urban smog and chronic health problems.

Global warming hadn’t been invented yet Climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets.

Electricity provided on-demand Extreme peak demand growth, T&D bottlenecks.

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A vision for EVs in sustainable communities

Onsite water and renewable energy Building efficiency and zero-waste Smart grid Transit-oriented development Plug-in EVs development

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Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving Distances in Australia

Sydney – 87% drive less than 100km

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Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

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Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

100%

Plug‐In Vehicle Utility Factor ‐ 2001 vs 1995

80% 90% 60% 70% tor 40% 50% U tility Fa ct 2001 NHTS 1995 NPTS 20%

30% Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing

as typical driving distances reduce.

0% 10%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

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Enabling Technology: Li-Ion Batteries

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CARB expert panel (2007): “High energy Li-Ion technology has good potential to meet all performance requirements of EVs with batteries of modest

weight cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely weight…cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely to also meet cycle life goals.”

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Li-Ion Battery Charging and Safety

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g g

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Charging

• Li-ion battery charging rates depend onLi ion battery charging rates depend on chemistry and anode/cathode design • Most batteries can charge in <60min,

some batteries can charge in <10min some batteries can charge in <10min. • Charging supply is usually the

bottleneck Safety

• Li-ion battery safety also depends on y y p chemistry and anode/cathode design • The preferred automotive chemistry

(Li-ion nanophosphate) is inherently safer p p ) y and cannot go into thermal runaway. • Monitoring/management is critical for

some other Li-Ion chemistries some other Li Ion chemistries

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Enabling Factor: Mass-produced EVs

Chevy Volt PHEV – 60km Toyota FT-EV – 80km Mitsubishi MiEV – 125km

Ford Focus EV – 160km Mini EV – 240km

Mercedes BlueZERO EV – 200km

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Enabling Factor: New EV Companies

TH!NK City EV – 180km Aptera 2e EV – 160km Tesla Roadster EV – 400km

BYD E6 EV – 300km Fisker Karma PHEV – 80km Reva EV – 160km

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EV/PHEV Production Ramp

800,000

Industry Plans for Global Production of EVs and PHEVs

600 000 700,000 Production >600,000 units by 2012 500,000 600,000 u ct io n 300 000 400,000 n nua l Pr o d u EVs PHEVs Total 200,000 300,000 A n ota 0 100,000 0 To‐date 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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EV/PHEV Market Prices

8

Forecast Pricing Distribution for Global Production EVs/HEVs

(model launches during 2009‐2012)

7 8 Median price $42,000 5 6 n cy 3 4 Fr e que n 1 2 0 0 0 000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 000₀ ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 ₀000 M or e 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0 _M Price (AUD)

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EVs’ Lower Cost of Motoring

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Annual Motoring Cost Comparison – Small Sedan – 15,000km per Year

ICE HEV PHEV EV

Fuel cost ‐$1.00/L 1110 660 330 0 Fuel cost ‐$1.50/L 1665 990 495 0 Elec cost ‐5c/kWh 0 0 69 139 Elec cost ‐20c/kWh 0 0 278 555 Battery degradation1 ₀ ₀ ₃₇₇ ₅₈₃ Maintenance2 ₇₂₆ ₆₃₁ ₅₃₉ ₃₆₅ Totals – low $1836 $1291 $1316 $1087 Totals – high $2391 $1621 $1689 $1503

1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) – assumes 80% residual capacity at end of life.

2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004)

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No oil required for EVs

q

from Garnaut Review (2008)

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Greenhouse Emissions

250

Well‐to‐Wheel GHG Emissions for Petrol vs Electric Vehicles in Australia Small Sedan Platform

Evolution of 200 Oil shale Tar sands Gas‐to‐liquids Coal‐to‐liquids Evolution of electricity supply 150 C O2 e /k m ) MRET 20% Evolution of IGCC CO2 100 Em issio n s (g C MRET 20% Electricity Petrol petroleum supply CO2 seq. Wind/solar Wave/tidal 50 E 0

ICE 7 4L/100km HEV 4 4L/100km PHEV 50% UF EV 185Wh/km

NB: Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.

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Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs

Toyota study of Prius HEV – a net winner

after 20,000km.,

MIT study of alt. vehicle technologies vehicle technologies – EVs a net winner compared to ICE.

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EV Recharging Infrastructure

Better Place

Elektromoti e Toyota Industries

Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point

Elektromotive

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EV Battery Exchange

y

g

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Enabling Technology: Smart Grids

(cars as appliances) (cars as appliances)

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EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Expansion

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p

• The existing US electricity grid can support a light-duty vehicle fleet that is composed of 73% EVs (160 million).p ( )

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

(2007) “I t A t f Pl

(2007) “Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids”

NB: No new capacity required to support mass-market EVs, but utility-optimized charging is preferred.

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EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Factors

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• EVs can increase capacity factors with low marginal cost of electricity supplied.y pp

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EVs and Smart Grid: Ancillary Services

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• Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar market, and are also the most promising application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology

most promising application of vehicle to grid (V2G) technology.

NB: “Back-feeding” of power is not essential to provide V2G services NB: Back feeding of power is not essential to provide V2G services.

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EVs and Utilities

• Utilities that ‘get it’ are incredibly supportive of EVs

• Southern California Edison (SCE)

Southern California Edison (SCE) Southern California Edison (SCE) Electric Vehicle Technical Center SCE has operated a fleet of 320

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EVs and Utilities

• Pacific Gas & Electric

(PG&E)

– Special EV tariffs – Early adopter of pre-Early adopter of pre

production EVs

– Considering aftermarket for d EV b tt i

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EVs and Utilities

• Xcel Energy

– Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart charging – Comprehensive service territory modelling with NREL

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EVs and Utilities

• Electricite de France (EDF)

– Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and soon, Spain

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EVs and Smart Grid: V2G Aggregators

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• Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators” who can pool EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new

EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new commercial models for EV ownership to consumers.

Coulomb Technologies Project Better Place

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EVs and Smart Grid: Enabling Renewables

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Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs

Doubling of installed wind capacity

Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets” Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”

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Enabling Technology: Maturing Renewables

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Enabling Factor: Green Stimulus Packages

$11B f

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$11B for Smart Grids,

$6B for Renewables,

$2B for Plug-in Vehicles!

$2B for Renewables,

$1B for Green Cars,

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It might happen first in our backyard!

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North Port Quay: a carbon-free community development based on renewables, smart grids and electric vehicles.

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Barriers to EVs in sustainable

communities in Australia

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• Lack of plug-in vehicles & components

• Lack of plug-in infrastructure

• Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations

• Misperceptions about EVs

Misperceptions about EVs

• Market distortions due to undersupply

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• Lack of green vehicle incentives

• Regulatory constraints in the utility industry

• Lack of truly smart grids

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Opportunities for EVs in sustainable

communities in Australia

• Vehicles and charging infrastructure

– components and systems

– hardware and software

– new and retrofit

• New automotive business models

Blade Electron (VIC)

New automotive business models

• Aggregators of V2G ancillary services

Demonstrations and pilot deployments

• Demonstrations and pilot deployments

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How is CUSP pursuing its vision?

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The CUSP team:

Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James, Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs, p , ,

Research projects:

• Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables (Walter James with Western Power), g ( ) • Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids (Andrew Went)

• Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western Power) • Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)

• Environmental benefits of EVs (team in conjunction with EV infrastructure provider)

Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments

• West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA, Murdoch and CO₂ Smart)

• Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion businesses for domestic EV supply • Advisors to green urban developments e g North Port Quay and Lochiel Park • Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North Port Quay and Lochiel Park

CUSP Discussion Paper: Renewable Transport – How Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles using Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free Urban Developmentg gy p http://sustainability.curtin.edu.au/local/docs/cusp_discussion_paper.pdf

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