Hydrological transport modeling

Hydrological transport modeling



Catchment modeling – example from the EU

EUROCAT project



Catchment - river - coast continuum modeling –

example from MONERIS modeling



Sea-air exchange modeling – example from EU

CARBOCEAN project

Scenario modeling



The Global Orchestration Scenario (GO)

 Depicts a worldwide connected society, global markets and supra

national institutions well placed to deal with global environmental problems

 Global cooperation to improve the social and economic well being and to enhance global public goods and services



The TechnoGarden Scenario (TG)

 Depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and highly engineering ecosystems to deliver the necessary goods and services



The Order from Strength Scenario’s (OS)

 Represents a regionalized and fragmental world, concerned with

security and protection, emphasizing primarily on regional markets with little attention to the common goods a with individualistic

attitude towards ecosystem management



The Adapting Mosaic scenario (AM)

 Depicts a fragmental world resulting from discredited global institutions,

 Sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the

Baltic North Sea Mediterranean

Axios

Po

Elbe

Rhine

Humber

Vistula

Catchments and Coastal Seas in EuroCat

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Soil

Soil

River

River

Estuary

Estuary

Coast

Coast

AtmosphereAtmosphere

ransformations, temporal dela

y

Socio-economic activities

Loads, cost, regulation, ma

nagement

Coastal Response

Critical

concentration

Critical

concentration

Critical

load

Critical

load

Critical

basin flux

Critical

basin flux

Socio-economic

drivers

Scenarios

Management options

Gains & losses

Soil Soil River River Estuary Estuary Coast Coast AtmosphereAtmosphere

Properties of the river catchments

Human activities

Coastal Response

River-Coastal Sea as a continuum

Soil

Soil

River

River

Estuary

Estuary

Coast

Coast

AtmosphereAtmosphere

ransformations, temporal dela

y

Socio-economic activities

Loads, cost, regulation, ma

nagement

Coastal Response

Critical

concentration

Critical

concentration

Critical

load

Critical

load

Critical

basin flux

Critical

basin flux

Socio-economic

drivers

Scenarios

Management options

Gains & losses

MONERIS Submodels

MONERIS Submodels



Atmospheric deposition



Tile drainage



Erosion



Groundwater



Overland flow



Point sources



Urban systems



Background

MONERIS Submodels cont.

Vistula

Elbe

Rhine

Humber

Po

Axios

WP 2. Impacts, indicators and critical loads of the receptor

WP 3. Scenario’s & response/management options

WP 5. European level WP 6. Dissemination

WP 1. Databases and tools

Wade et al. 2002

Modelling

N transfer from catchments

to estuaries using deterministic models

Methodology

Methodology

Dams

Population Connected Type and Classes of

WWTP

P&N Emissions

Industry

Nutrients into Baltic Sea Nutrient Balance

on the Agricultural Area

Nutrient Surplus in Top Soils

Sedimentation and Retention on Land Erosion Sorption Desorption Surface Run-off Atmospheric Emiss.

Nutrient Emiss. into the River System

Nutrient Retention and Losses in the River Systems

Nutrient Load in the Rivers

Fertilizer

Livestock Units

Crops/yields

Agricultural Landuse

ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION

parameters calculation

Results

Linked to other files

INPUT DATA CATCHMENT DESCRIPTION OUTPUT DATA EMISSIONS PATHWAYS ( submodel parameters ) Overland flow Atmosph. Depos. Tile Drainage Ground water Urban Areas Waste Wate Trattment Plants BASIC INFO Erosion INPUT PARAMETERS Generals (subcatchment descripion)

Runoff & river load (discharge, DIN, TN,

Statistics of municipals ( population, area, arable land) Landuse Soil (erosion) Tile drainage Geology (nutrient to groundwater) Slope

Precipitation & atmospheric deposition

Surplus

Smith et al. 1997

Modelling

N transfer: SPARROW

SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed Attributes

Empirically derived estimates from

in stream measurements

Estimated nitrogen export (kg/km2/yr)

Alexander et al. 2000

A rapid decline in the rate of

nitrogen loss with channel size

Proximity of sources to large

streams and rivers is a major

determinant of N transport

Socio-Economic Drivers Socio-Economic Drivers Environmental Pressures. Environmental Pressures. Policy Response & Management Options Policy Response & Management Options Environmental ‘State’ Changes: Environmental ‘State’ Changes: Impacts- Coastal Respons e Impacts- Coastal Respons e Stakeholders Gains/losses Biophysical properties basin-coast Soil River Estuary Coast Atm o sp here Biophy sic a l pr ope rt ie s Basin-Coast H uma n Activi ties Impacts-Coastal Response

LoiczBasin: RiverBasins Impact on Coastal System Functioning

Basin&Coast as one system with DPSIR to cover “IGBP” and “IHDP” aspects, Focus on horizontal fluxes of carbon, nutrients, water, sediment and toxics

Sambas 1999,2001 AfriBasin 2000,2001 EuroCat 2001 CariBas 2001 EABasin 2001 AusOceBasin 2002 ?Bas ?Bas RusBas 2001 Sambas 1999,2001 AfriBasin 2000,2001 EuroCat 2001 CariBas 2001 EABasin 2001 AusOceBasin 2002 ?Bas ?Bas RusBas 2001

Past, Present and Future System Functioning

“Hitlists” Regional Drivers and Pressures Impacts & critical loads

Scenario development Global upscaling Typology 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  Low Eutrophication Aquaculture  Low Erosion/Sedimentation Navigation  Low Erosion/sedimentation Deforestation  Medium Eutrophication/Pollution Agriculture  Medium Pollution Industrialization  Major Erosion/Sedimentation Damming  Major Eutrophication Urbanization Trend Status Impact Activity

C Gas Concentration De p th Z “Surface film”; z ~ 20-100 m Atmospheric boundary layer Surface mixed layer Sea surface

Air-sea gas exchange: controlling variables & parameterisation

What controls k_w & how can we estimate it?

Which processes are important in influencing C?

Microlayer Consumption Model

Microlayer CH₄ consumption gives enhanced flux (increased k_w )

Estimates based on gas chromatography of water phase only Hence enhancements only ever detectable for Evasion

Bacteria Bacteria

Invasion

Evasion

Air

Water

Inert (SF

)

Reactive (CH

)

Microlayer

Future research:

Gases

Research priorities for air-sea gas exchange

Gas Air to sea Sea to air Seawater Air/sea Atmospheric

production/ exchange role

destruction process *(9) CO₂     *(4) CO -   -  CH₄ -  () - () NO_x/y  - (2) (1) -N₂ O -  *(5) - -NH₃   (2) (3) *(6) COS -   - () DMS -   - *(6) Organo- -   - *(7) halogens LMWHC_s -   -  POPs  - - *(8) -Hg -   -

- = Primary Research Topic (1) Interaction with sea spray (6) Role in atmospheric particle formation () = Secondary Research Topic (2) Sources of N-nutrient (7) Role in atmospheric oxidant chemistry * = Special Research Topic (3) Is liquid resistance important? (8) Exchange processes untested

(4) Role of oceans in atm. CO₂ seasonality (9) Role of wind, waves, bubbles, spray and films (5) Importance of oceans in global budget in exchange processes not well established

Compound Estuary to open ocean flux rate ratio Quantity of estuary emissions in Europe, ktonnes/yr Estuary contribution to total European emissions % Coastal sea contribution to the total sea to

air flux Coastal sea contribution to global emission % CH₄ ~ 1000 580 2.5 up to 30% 0.2 - 2.0 N₂ O ~ 100 120 9.4 up to 60% 2.0 - 15.0 DMS 1 - 3 60 (as S) 1.0 *1 _{up to 10% 2.0} *1 COS 10 - 100 up to 50% Hg ~ 10 12 x 10-3 _{3.5 up to 20% ~ 0.5}

*1 _{Contribution to the total European or global emissions of sulfur}

Fluxes of some biogases in estuaries and their contribution to the total Budgets for these gases on the basis of the literature review in this work