GLOBAL PV MARKETS AND PERSPECTIVES

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GLOBAL PV MARKETS AND

PERSPECTIVES

Christoph Wolfsegger

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Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 2

0

500 1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Country A

Country B

Country A

Country B

Cummulative PV

capacity in MWp

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Country B Mexico Country A Germany 35.000 jobs in PV industry, 750 MWp annual installations

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OUTLINE

• Who is EPIA?

• Feed in tariffs systems

• What is global market situation?

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EPIA represents 95% of the photovoltaic European industry

• Exists since 1985

• 120 members: 102 full + 18 associate

• 102 full members : manufacturers on the overall value chain

• Budget 2007: 2.4 millions €

(54% Members, 31% Sponsorship,

Partnerships and new businesses, 15% EC)

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ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), APREN (PT) Belval (CH), CRES (GR), Dexia (FR), ECN (NL), EDF (FR), Trama (ES), Fraunhofer (DE), IM2 Systems (ES), IMEC (BE), INES (FR), Kosolco (DE), Observ’ER (FR), REECO (DE), SEMI (US), SHV (NL)

Associate Members (18)

3S Swiss Solar Systems (CH), Acciona Solar (ES), Carmanah (UK), City Solar (DE), Conergy (DE), Econcern (NL), Ecotecnia (ES), Engcotec (DE), ESI (DE), Goldbeck Solar (DE), GP Solar (DE), IBC Solar (DE), IB Vogt (DE), IT Power (UK), M+W Zander (DE), NAPS Systems (FI), NaRec Development Services (UK), Phönix SonnenStrom (DE), Powerlight Systems (CH), Saft Power Systems (FR), Solar Ventures (IT), Solar Electric (FR), Solaria Energia (ES), Tenesol (FR), Wager & Co Solartechnik (DE), WIP (DE)

aleo Solar (DE), Applied Materials (DE), Atersa (NL), Arcelor (LU), August Krempel (DE), Baoding Yingli (CN)

Bangkok Solar (TAI), Bisol (SI), BP Solar (ES), CEEG PV (CN), Crystalox (UK), DC Chemicals (DE), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont (FR), Elkem Solar (NW), Energy Solutions (BG), Enersys (UK), EniPower (IT), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), Evergreen Solar (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU), Guardian (US), HCT Shaping Systems (CH), Helianthos (NL), Honeywell Specialty Materials (BE), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AU), KACO

Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (US), KPE (KR), Kyocera (DE), Leybold Opticqs (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Mistubishi Electric Europe (DE), Multi-Contact (CH), MSK (UK), OC Oerlikon Balzers Ltd. (LS), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt Internatioal (FR), Pillar (UA), Podolsky Chemical (RU), PowerLynx (DK), PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe (DE), REC Scanwafer (NW), RENA Sondermachinen (DE), Renergies (IT), Saft (FR), Saint Gobain (FR), Schott Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar (NL), Sharp Solar Systems (DE), Shell Solar (NL), SGL Carbon (DE), Siemens (DE), Solar Cells Hellas (GR), SMA Technologie (DE), Solland Sollar Energy (NL), Solar Century (UK), Solar World (DE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Engineering (CH), Stangl Semiconductor Equipment (DE), Sunways (DE), Sunpower (US), Suntech Power (CN), Topsil (DK), Trina Solar (ES) Vesuvius (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), VON ARDENNE (DE), United Solar Ovonic Europe (DE) Würth Solar (DE)

Full Members (27) Full Members (57)

Systems, Consulting, R&D (45) Components manufacturers (57)

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The Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE) is an international non-profit

organization founded in 2006 by the most important European renewable

energy Industry Associations,EPIA, ESHA, EWEA, EUBIA, GWEC

ARE was created in response to the need for access to sustainable electricity

in the developing world, and to facilitate the involvement of ARE members in

emerging rural energy markets.

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Policy makers will ask

why the change should

be done with PV?

RE source with huge potential

CO2 reduction

Security of supply –

cheap on the long run!

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10 How to do it?

Premium feed in tariff

•Every PV system has to be

connected to the grid by the utility

•Every solar kWh which is offered

has to be bought by the utility

•Every solar kWh has to be payed

with a fixed price over 20 years

•The feed-in tariff is reduced every

year by 5-6,5% for new installed PV-systems

Benefits:

•Security for investors

•Incentive to maximise output of system

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How the German system is working

(data 2005)

consumer

Price increase for consumer: 0.7%

utilities

1.28 TWh solar electricity

sold for 679 mio €

(53 €ct per kWh)

Fossil and nuclear

electricity

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EEG: Photovoltaic Feed-in Tariffs

€ct 37.96

Open land

(ground-mounted)

+ €ct 5

Façade-integrated

€ct 46.30

€ct 46.82

€ct 49.21

on buildings and noise

protection walls

from 100 kWp

30–100 kWp

up to 30 kWp

Feed-in tariff per kWh

Feed-in tariffs for PV systems

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Global Market 2006

GERMANY

JAPAN

USA (California)

Rest of

the World

KEY DATA

• 1.5 GWp annual market

• 6.5 GWp accumulative capacity

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Global Annual Installations

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MWp ROW USA JAPAN Germany

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Market Segments

Consumer

Off-Grid Industrial

On-Grid

Off-Grid Residential

Economically viable Dependent on market support programs 84 % -1106 MW 8 % - 108 MW 2 % - 24 MW 7 % - 96 MW

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Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 16 e e e e e e 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MWp pessimistic scenario policy driven scenario

Global Annual Installations of PV

5.6 GW

1.5 GW

35-40 %

growth

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Diversification of European and

Global Market

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oil

coal

gas

nuclear power

hydroelectricity

biomass (traditional)

biomass (advanced)

solar power (PV

and solar thermal

generation)

solar thermal (heat only)

other renewables

geothermal

wind

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de

year

2000

2020

2040

200

600 1000

1400

2100

EJ/a

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Cell Production Shares per

Region 2006

China; 15,1% India; 1,4% Japan; 36,4% Middle East; 0,3% Germany; 20,0% Europe; 8,2% USA; 6,8%

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Relative Share of Technology

over Time

source: EPIA 0 % 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 y e a r N e w C o n c e p t s T h i n F i l m c - S i

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~ 0.20 €

1800 h/a (very

south of Europe)

~ 0.40 €

900 h/a

(Germany)

PV costs per

kWh

Radiation

Residential electricity prices

in Europe = 0,10 – 0,20 €

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2005

PV

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.50

0.36

0.42

0.31

0.28

0.28 PV electricity

prices

compared with

typical consumer

electricity prices

consumer

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.14

0.16

0.20

0.10

0.22

0.12

0.11

0.11 break-even boundary

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2010

PV

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.35

0.25

0.29

0.22

0.22 PV electricity

prices

compared with

expected

consumer

electricity

prices

(+ 1%/ yr)

consumer

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.15

0.17

0.21

0.11

0.23

0.13

0.11

(24)

2015

PV

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.25

0.18

0.21

0.16

0.14

0.14 PV electricity

prices

compared with

expected

consumer

electricity prices

(+ 1%/ yr)

consumer

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.16

0.18

0.22

0.11

0.24

0.13

0.12

(25)

2020

PV

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.20

0.14

0.17

0.13

0.13 PV electricity

prices

compared with

expected

consumer

electricity prices

(+ 1%/ yr)

consumer

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.16

0.19

0.23

0.12

0.26

0.14

0.12

(26)

2030

PV

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.10

0.07

0.08

0.063

0.055

0.055 PV electricity

prices

compared with

expected

consumer

electricity prices

(+ 1%/ yr)

consumer

electricity

price

(

€

/ kWh)

0.18

0.20

0.26

0.13

0.28

0.15

0.14

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Price

Experience Curve

1 10 100 0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 MWp accumulated

$/Wp module price 20% price decrease by

doubling cumulative volume until 2003 1 10 $/ Wp module price (Assumption $= € ) 1,1 GWp/a 2004 5,6 GWp/a 2010 48 GWp/a 2020 193 GWp/a 2030 experience factor 15% 18% EPIA Price Scenario

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Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 28 0 1 2 3 4 26.06.01 27.06.01 28.06.01 29.06.01 30.06.01 01.07.01 02.07.01 03.07.01 Normierter Preis APX Normierter Preis EEX 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 26.06.01 27.06.01 28.06.01 29.06.01 30.06.01 01.07.01 02.07.01 03.07.01 Normierte PV-Leistung Source: Fraunhofer

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s u m m e r

$ c t / k W h 6 0

20 40

Range of Electricity Prices in

California

(data from Alison Hyde, BSW)

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Daily profile of solar energy production and

energy consumption of an office building

24h-Energy Profile

0:00 6:00

12:00 18:00 24:00

Electrical Energy [arb. units]

Low Tariff

High Tariff

Low Tariff

Electricity supplied by Utility

Fed-In Energy

Solar Energy

Energy consumption of building

Electricity supplied by Utility

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Conclusions

• Germany still the most important market. Many countries are on the verge

to take off.

• PV on grid systems become competitive in many countries within the next

decade at peak electricity prices (Japan and California almost competitive

today).

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…..lets get the graph right

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Country A Country B Country A Country B 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Country A Country B

PV Industry

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Thank you very much

for your attention!

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Electricity generating

cost [€ct/kWh]

Eurelectric /

VGB Power Tech

Today

2005

Tomorrow

2030

Day after

tomorrow

2050

Fossile (coal, gas)

4 - 4.5

6-7

6.5 - 9

Nuclear (PWR, HTR,

FBR)

4 – 6

3.5 – 7

3.5 - 6

Wind (off-/on shore)

9/7.5

8/7.5

Solar thermal

17

8

8 PV solar electricity

(south/north)

62

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Electricity generating

cost [€ct/kWh]

Eurelectric /

VGB Power Tech

Today

2005

Tomorrow

2030

Day after

tomorrow

2050

Fossile (coal, gas)

4 - 4.5

6-7

6.5 - 9

Nuclear (PWR, HTR,

FBR)

4 – 6

3.5 – 7

3.5 - 6

Wind (off-/on shore)

9/7.5

8/7.5

6/5

8/7.5

3/4

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Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 36 750 750 600 3 3 3 3 150 80 78 40 12 10 12 7 4 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 total installed PV-power in MWp

annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

Development of the

German PV-market

1991: Electricity Feed-In Act

Right of

(1) of grid access

(2) feed-in of solar electricity

(3) refund payment at fixed prices

(approx. 8.5 €ct per kWh)

2000: Renewable

Energy Sources

Act (EEG)

Solar electricity

feed-in tariff of

51 €ct per kWh

2004:

Amendment to EEG

Feed-in tariff of

45.7 - 62.4 €ct

per kWh

1991 - 1995:

1,000 Roofs

Program

1999 - 2003:

100,000 Roofs Progr.

Low-interest loans

for 300 MWp

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Technology Shares in 2006

multi c-Si; 46,5% CIS; 0,2% a-Si; 4,7% ribbon-sheet c-Si; 2,6% CdTe; 2,7% mono c-Si; 43,4%

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Regional Development until 2011

(Annual Installations – Policy Driven

Scenario)

0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 year MWp

Rest of the World U S A Rest of Asia Japan Rest of Europe Germany 6.9 GW 1 . 5 G W 2.2 GW 3.1 GW 5.6 GW 4.3 GW

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Market Leaders in Cell

Production in 2006

Sharp; 17,1% Q-Cells; 10,0% Kyocera; 7,1% Schott Solar; 3,8% Solar World; 3,5% BP Solar; 3,4% Rest; 23,5%

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Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 40 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year g/Wp and % efficiency % silicon usage g/Wp

Module Efficiency and Silicon

Consumption - one of several drivers

to competitiveness