COVID-19 Data Summary

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Response Day 281

Friday December 18, 2020

DAILY LOS ANGELES

COVID-19 Data Summary

Prepared by

City of Los Angeles, Mayor Garcetti’s Innovation Team

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INDEX

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News Snapshot

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Data Snapshot

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United States Update

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Key Indicators

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Demographic Comparisons

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LA County/City/CA Updates

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Medical Capacity and Supplies

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City Response and Preparedness

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Economic Analysis

Page 2 Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

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COVID-19 Highlights

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COVID-19 HEADLINES OF THE WEEK

• As of December 18, 2020

Source: LA Times, Yahoo, NPR, New York Times

Source: Yahoo

Source: New York Times Source: NPR

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COVID-19 DATA SUMMARY

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Current Regional Stay Home Order Status

Legend

COVID-19 restrictions: Regional Stay Home Order

(Southern California Order in Effect as of Dec 6, 2020, 11:59 PM)

Statewide Metrics

• 63.9 New COVID-19 Positive Cases Per Day Per 100k Residents

• 11.3% 7-Day Positivity Rate • 2.1% ICU Availability Source: State of California The Regional Stay Home Order,

announced December 3, 2020, and a

supplemental order, signed December 6,

2020, will go into effect at 11:59 PM the day after a region has been announced to have less than 15% ICU availability. • The supplemental order clariﬁes retail operations and goes into effect

immediately;

• They prohibit private gatherings of any size, close sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail;

• And require 100% masking and physical distancing in all others.

Once triggered, these orders will remain in effect for at least 3 weeks. After that

period, they will be lifted when a region’s projected ICU capacity meets or exceeds 15%. This will be assessed on a weekly basis after the initial 3 week period.

*Surge capacity beyond these numbers may be possible based on individual hospital’s bed and staff surge plans

Source: COVID19.CA.GOV

Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team Page 6

ICU Availabilities as of 12/18/20

Region ICU Availability Order

Northern California 21.0% Does not apply

Bay Area 12.8% Threshold met

Greater Sacramento 14.5% Threshold met

San Joaquin Valley 0.0% Threshold met

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New reopening metrics and tier

assignment were previously announced on Tuesdays. On November 16, the State announced that they may start reporting metrics more frequently and on days on than Tuesdays.

All metrics are evaluated on a 7-day lag

Current data range: 11/29/20 - 12/5/20

New COVID-19 positive cases per 100K

7-Day average new positive cases per 100K residents

Adjusted case rate for tier assignment

An adjustment factor for counties that are testing above or below the state average. This adjusted rate is used for “new case” metric rather than the raw case rate

Positivity Rate

7-day average of positive lab- conﬁrmed COVID-19 cases divided by total tests

Health Equity Metric

The test positivity rate in the Lowest Healthy Places Index Quartile Census Tracts.

COVID-19 Los Angeles County | Ny State Cases Per 100k Residents

As of May 26, 2020, 3:00 PM

STATE REOPENING

METRICS

As of Dec 15 2020, 1 PM REPORTING DATE RATE

% DIFF VS LAST METRICS

LAST REPORTING

DATE LAST METRICS New COVID-19 positive

cases per 100K 12/15 84.4 +101.9% 12/8 41.8

Adjusted case rate for tier

assignment 12/15 42.2 +56.9% 12/8 26.9

Positivity Rate 12/15 11.4% ₍_{% Point Difference}+2.7% ₎ 12/8 8.7%

Health Equity Metric

(starting 10/6)* 12/15 17.0%

+3.1%

(% Point Difference) 12/8 13.9%

Source: California Department of Public Health

CURRENT LOS ANGELES COUNTY RISK

LEVEL: WIDESPREAD

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COVID-19 Los Angeles County | Ny State Cases Per 100k Residents

As of May 26, 2020, 3:00 PM

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

KEY METRICS

Key Takeaways:

The following metrics have seen

undesirable movement over the past

seven days for which data are available:

New Cases, New Deaths, 7-Day COVID Positive Test Rate, New

Hospitalizations, Acute Care Bed Capacity, ICU Bed Capacity, and LA City Unemployment Insurance Claims

The following metrics have seen desirable movement over the past seven days: LA

City Crime

*Unless otherwise noted, the baseline period is the week of 4/18/20-4/24/20, our highest week in the month of April, ﬁrst full month of reporting on record *As of 12/17/20

METRICS

As of December 18, 2020, 1 PM TODAY’S AVERAGES CURRENT TREND VS LAST WEEK % CHANGE VS LAST WEEK CURRENT TREND VS BASELINE % CHANGE VS BASELINE

New Cases (7-day avg.) _{(7-day avg)}13,727 +33.5% +1216.1%

New Deaths (7-day avg.) 81

(7-day avg) +59.4% +60.7%

COVID 7-Day Positive Test

Rate (as of one week ago) 14.3%

(overall) +2.8%

+2.7%

COVID+ Test Rate is % Point Difference w/ baseline New Hospitalizations (7-day avg)* 549 (7-day avg) +44% +252.6%

Acute Care Bed Capacity (7-day avg)*

310

(7-day avg) -28.4% -72.3%

ICU Bed Capacity

(7-day avg)*

66

(7-day avg) -26.6% -72.8%

LA City Crime (7-day avg) baseline = 2019 YTD 436 daily crimes (7-day avg) as of 12/12/2020 -5.9% -25.3% LA City Unemployment Ins. Claims (includes PUA) baseline = equivalent 2019 week

7,572

as of 12/5/2020 +45.6% +293%

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, COVID Tracking Project Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team Page 8 Undesired Trend Desired Trend Desired Change Undesired Change No Change

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Source: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, COVID Tracking Project Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

LOS ANGELES COUNTY • COVID-19 Weekly Data Snapshot • As of December 18, 2020

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*Testing, Hospital capacity, and new hospitalization data as of 12/17 *Data range is Saturday - Friday

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COVID-19 DATA SUMMARY

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Page 11

COVID-19 US Cases - Per Capita State Comparisons (TOTAL CASES)

As of December 18, 2020, 3:00 PM

Source: COVID Tracking Project Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team Cases are on the rise across the entire United States. The top

ﬁve states, based on overall cases include:

#1: 1,764.4K cases in California (+41.0K) - 4460 per 100K 22.2K deaths in California (+300) - 56.0 per 100K

#2: 1,556.0K cases in Texas (+16.8K) - 5421 per 100K 25.0K deaths in Texas (+294) - 86.9 per 100K

#3: 1,162.0K cases in Florida (+12.8K) - 5455 per 100K 20.7K deaths in Florida (+96) - 97.1 per 100K

#4: 886.8K cases in Illinois (+7.4K) - 6960 per 100K 16.2K deaths in Illinois (+221) - 127.2 per 100K

#5: 828.2K cases in New York State (+12.7K) - 4237 per 100K 28.3K deaths in New York State (+122) - 145.0 per 100K

Rounding out the top ten are:

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Tennessee, Michigan

California ranks ...

#1 in Cases

#39 in Cases per 100K

#3 in Deaths

#40 in Deaths per 100K

New cases per day in the United States Legend for map

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Page 12

COVID-19 US Cases - Per Capita State Comparisons (NEW CASES)

As of December 18, 2020, 3:00 PM

Source: COVID Tracking Project Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team Cases are on the rise across the entire United States. The top

ﬁve states, based on new cases over the last day include: #1: 1,764.4K cases in California (+41.0K) - 4460 per 100K 22.2K deaths in California (+300) - 56.0 per 100K

#2: 1,556.0K cases in Texas (+16.8K) - 5421 per 100K 25.0K deaths in Texas (+294) - 86.9 per 100K

#3: 1,162.0K cases in Florida (+12.8K) - 5455 per 100K 20.7K deaths in Florida (+96) - 97.1 per 100K

#4: 828.2K cases in New York State (+12.7K) - 4237 per 100K 28.3K deaths in New York State (+122) - 145.0 per 100K #5: 605.9K cases in Ohio (+9.7K) - 5182 per 100K 8.0K deaths in Ohio (+73) - 68.2 per 100K

Rounding out the top ten are: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Illinois, Georgia

Legend for map

California ranks ...

#1 in Cases

#39 in Cases per 100K

#3 in Deaths

#40 in Deaths per 100K

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Top 5 per capita (per 100K) cases by County: Potter, Texas (Amarillo): 12,391 cases per 100K (14,549 total cases)

Minnehaha, South Dakota (Sioux Falls): 12,229 cases per 100K (23,618 total cases)

Lubbock, Texas: 12,167 cases per 100K (37,786 total cases)

Woodbury, Iowa (Sioux City): 11,279 cases per 100K (11,629 total cases)

El Paso, Texas: 11,229 cases per 100K (94,240 total cases)

COVID-19 US Cases - Per Capita County Comparison (Counties >=100K ppl)

As of December 17, 2020, 8:00 PM • One-day lag

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Health, Johns Hopkins University

Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

Los Angeles, California: 5,781 cases per 100K (580,325 total cases)

Los Angeles County ranks #185 out of 584 counties with 100K+

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COVID-19 US Deaths - Per Capita County Comparison (Counties >=100K ppl)

As of December 17, 2020, 8:00 PM • One-day lag

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Health, Johns Hopkins University

Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

Top 5 per capita (per 100K) deaths by County: Bronx, New York: 357.4 deaths per 100K (5,069 total deaths)

Queens, New York: 329.8 deaths per 100K (7,434 total deaths)

Kings, New York: 296.4 deaths per 100K (7,587 total deaths)

Essex, New Jersey (NYC Metro Area): 290.4 deaths per 100K (2,320 total deaths)

Passaic, New Jersey (NYC Metro Area): 276.0 deaths per 100K (1,385 total deaths)

Los Angeles, California: 86.3 deaths per 100K (8,664 total deaths)

Los Angeles County ranks #236 out of 584 counties with 100K+

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COVID-19 • LOS ANGELES

Key Indicators

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

The past seven days have seen

an average daily increase of 13,727 new

cases

The past seven days have seen an average daily increase of 81 new

deaths

Legend:

Note: The reported cases on 12/14 were artiﬁcially low due to backlogs from certain labs

Source: Los Angeles County New Cases and New Deaths, 7-Day Average

HOTLINE

SERVICES

LA County New Cases and New Deaths, 7-Day Average

All metrics last updated at 1 PM, December 18, 2020

7-DAY AVG OF CASES & DEATHS

Safer At Home (SAH) Restriction Lifted SAH Restriction Reinstituted

CASES DAILY UPDATE DEATHS DAILY UPDATE

1.20 16,504

596,721

Infection Rate Ideal < 1.0

New Cases Total Cases

1.5%

96 8,757

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1.20 16,504

596,721

41,012

1.76M

260,092

17.4M

647,325

75.3M

Infection Rate Ideal < 1.0

New Cases Total Cases New Cases Total Cases New Cases Total Cases New Cases Total Cases

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• LA County accounts for 33.8% of cases in CA with an average of 13,727 new cases reported from 12/11 to 12/18 (2.7% increase)

CUMULATIVE CASES

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering GitHub repo, LA County

Department of Public Health, COVIDTracking.com, and the LA Times.

LA County Case Updates

3/2

LA COUNTY DAILY CASES

LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES GLOBAL

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HOTLINE

SERVICES

LA County Mortality Updates

DAILY MORTALITY IN LA COUNTY

LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES GLOBAL

1.5%

96 8,757

300 22,160

2,885

312.2K

12,445

1.7M

Mortality Rate New Deaths Total Deaths New Deaths Total Deaths New Deaths Total Deaths New Deaths Total Deaths

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• LA County accounts for 39.5% of deaths in CA with an average of 81 new deaths reported from 12/11 to 12/18 (1.0% increase)

CUMULATIVE DEATHS

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering GitHub repo, LA County

Department of Public Health, COVIDTracking.com, and the LA Times.

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

• At least 2,961,438 tests have been performed at City of Los Angeles since 3/20

• On average, 33,511 tests were

performed each day from 12/10 to 12/16 •238,841 of the 2,864,660 tests for which results were received were positive (8.5%) Source: City of Los Angeles

LA City Testing Updates

TESTING IN LA CITY

Cumulative Positivity Rate - Tests

DAILY TESTS

All metrics as of December 17, 2020

TESTS COMPLETED AVAILABILITY

36.9K

2.96M

10 41.5K

City Tests Since last report

City Tests Since 3/20

Total City Sites Available Today

Avail. City Testing Capacity Today

*Public test registration. It does not include registration of critical city employees, ﬁrst responders, and health care providers.

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COUNTY POSITIVITY RATE

(7-day lag)

Legend:

Source: City of Los Angeles

KEY TAKEAWAYS

•LA County has tested a total of at least

4,303,487 people and a total of 9,458,214 specimens (tests)

LA Testing Updates • Positivity Rate

12/11 3/11

City positive rate as of December 16/17, 2020 County metrics as of December 11, 2020

POSITIVITY RATE IN CITY OF LA (1-day lag for cumulative/2-day for 7-day rate )

TESTS COMPLETED AVAILABILITY POSITIVITY RATE

36.9K

2.96M

10 41.5K

8.5%

7.5%

13.0%

14.3%

20.04%

*Public test registration.

It does not include registration of critical city employees, ﬁrst responders, and health care providers.

City Tests Since last report

City Tests Since 3/20

Total City Sites Available Today

Avail. City Testing Capacity Today Cumulative City - Tests Cumulative County - Tests Cumulative County - People

County's 7-day Rate

For Tests (1 week lag)

City's 7-day Rate

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

• At least 35,057 people have been hospitalized since 3/18

CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED: +6.4%

INCREASE IN ICU: +7.7%

Legend (for graph on left)

Source: City of Los Angeles

*Public test registration. It does not include registration of critical city employees, ﬁrst responders, and health care providers.

652 5,424

35.1K

294

247

47

963

New Hospitalizations Current Hospitalizations Total Hospitalizations Total Beds Available Acute Care Beds Available ICU Beds Available Ventilators Available

The Regional Stay Home Order went into effect on 12/6 at 11:59 PM, the day after the Southern California region dipped below 15% ICU availability. This order prohibits private gatherings of any size, closes sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and requires 100% masking and physical distancing in all others.

LA Hospitalization Updates

NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS IN LA COUNTY

All metrics as of December 17, unless otherwise noted

12/17 3/31

LOS ANGELES EQUIPMENT AVAILABILITY

ICU

SO-CAL REGIONAL ICU CAPACITY

0.0%

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COVID-19 • LOS ANGELES

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Cases by Demographics*

11%

0 to 17 yrs

25%

18 to 29 yrs

34%

30 to 49 yrs

19%

50 to 64 yrs

10%

65+

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Data is incomplete with 32.2% of cases still under investigation

MOST IMPACTED GROUPS

• Hispanic/Latino Americans • Females

• 30-59 year olds • 18-29 year olds

Legend:

Source: Los Angeles Department of Public Health.

PERCENT OF TOTAL CASES COMPARED TO POPULATION

2,096,996 population 1,703,423 population 2,725,450 population 1,856,788 population 1,268,675 population 1,492,554 population 811,476 population 4,808,364 population 2,619,709 population 373,415 population 4,890,980 population 4,760,352 population

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Deaths by Demographics*

0%

0 to 17 yrs

1%

18 to 29 yrs

7%

30 to 49 yrs

19%

50 to 64 yrs

74%

65+

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Data is incomplete with 0.3% of deaths

still under investigation

• 7713 out of 8298 deaths (93.0%) had comorbidities (underlying conditions)

MOST IMPACTED GROUPS

• 65+ • Males

• Hispanic/Latino Americans • Black Americans

Legend

Source: Los Angeles Department of Public Health.

PERCENT OF TOTAL DEATHS COMPARED TO POPULATION

2,096,996 population 1,703,423 population 2,725,450 population 1,856,788 population 1,268,675 population 1,492,554 population 811,476 population 4,808,364 population 2,619,709 population 373,415 population 4,890,980 population 4,760,352 population

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COVID-19 DATA SUMMARY

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CASES

City + County + State Update

As of December 18, 2020, Updated 1:30 PM

Key Takeaways from 12/11 to 12/18:

• 278,671 positive cases reported in CA (39.9% increase) • 96,089 positive cases reported in LA County (33.5% increase) • 37,806 positive cases reported in the City of LA (32.1% increase)

• An average of 39,810 Cases reported in CA (2.3% increase)

• LA County accounts for 33.8% of cases in CA with an average of 13,727 new cases reported (2.7% increase)

• The City of LA accounts for 13.7% of cases in CA with an average of 5,401 new cases reported (2.6% increase)

TOTAL WEEKLY CASES

City + County + State Comparison

DAILY CASES ROLLING AVERAGE (7-DAY)

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering GitHub repo, and the LA Times. Day of outbreak is identiﬁed as March 11, with prior cases aggregated to day 1. LA City death count lags several days.

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City + County + State Update

As of December 18, 2020, Updated 1:30 PM

MORTALITY

• 1,538 deaths reported in CA (47.9% increase) • 569 deaths reported in LA County (59.4% increase) • 207 deaths reported in the City of LA (60.5% increase)

• An average of 220 deaths reported in CA (1% increase)

• LA County accounts for 39.5% of deaths in CA with an average of 81 new deaths reported (1% increase)

• The City of LA accounts for 16.4% of deaths in CA with an average of 30 new deaths reported (0.9% increase)

TOTAL WEEKLY DEATHS

DAILY DEATHS ROLLING AVERAGE (7-DAY)

Source: Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering GitHub repo, and the LA Times. Day of outbreak is identiﬁed as March 11, with prior cases aggregated to day 1. LA City death count lags several days.

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COVID-19 • LOS ANGELES COUNTY

Medical Capacity and

Supplies

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Key Takeaways: 294 total beds

Since last week, there has been a: •21.8% decrease in available acute care beds. Surge capacity is 11,482* • 39.0% decrease in available ICU beds. Surge capacity is 4,067* • 1.6% decrease in available ventilators. Surge capacity is 3,199*

*Additional surge capacity beyond these numbers may be possible based on individual hospital’s bed and staff surge plans

County Total Reported Bed Capacity in County: 23,318 Staffed Beds in all Categories (ICU, Rehab, Unspeciﬁed Acute, Coronary Care, NICU, Perinatal, Pediatric, Psych, Skilled Nursing)

Hospital Bed and Equipment Capacity for LA County

As of December 17 • One-day lag

HOSPITALIZATIONS

Source: County HavBed Bed Tracking and Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Services/Reddinet. This is self reported data subject to error, represents 70 designated 9‐1‐1 receiving hospitals Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

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Hospital Bed and Equipment Capacity for LA County

As of December 17 • One-day lag

HOSPITALIZATIONS

*Additional surge capacity beyond these numbers may be possible based on individual hospital’s bed and staff surge plans

ICU BEDS ACUTE CARE BEDS VENTILATORS

Source: County HavBed Bed Tracking and Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Services/Reddinet This is self reported data subject to error, represents 70 designated 9‐1‐1 receiving hospitals Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

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COVID-19 DATA SUMMARY

City Response

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Hotline Services: 311 Calls

331 2,827

701.4K

42.5K

30,455

COVID Related Calls Non-COVID Related Calls

All 311/Hotline Calls Since 3/26

Total COVID Calls - Since 3/26

Total Calls for Angeleno Card

All metrics last updated December 17, 2020

KEY TAKEAWAYS

10% of the total 311 calls were

COVID-related.

CALL THEMES

• Testing

• Parking complaints • Rent or ﬁnancial help

• Questions about orders or violations

Legend:

Source: ITA - 311 Contact Center

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COVID-19 • Los Angeles City Overview

Economic Analysis

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Key Takeaways:

• 7.6K new claims from 11/29-12/5, including Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

• Spiked on 3/28 with 112K new claims

• This represents an increase of over 4500% from the weekly average from 1/1 - 3/7 • October unemployment

(seasonally-adjusted) is estimated at 12.1% for LA County. This is lower than September’s numbers (15.5%)

•1,343,691 total claims for Unemployment Insurance (UI) and Pandemic Unemployment

Assistance (PUA) in 2020

Note: A major PUA backlog was found and reported over the two-week period from 8/23-9/5

34 New Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims for the City of Los Angeles

As of December 5, 2020

ECONOMIC

ANALYSIS

Source: California EDD Prepared by Mayor’s Innovation Team

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Source: California EDD

14.6% decrease compared to last year • Jan to July 2019: $341,146,102 • Jan to July 2020: $291,253,631