A DAILY REPORT Report Number: 1-08042020
by
Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan, PhD
Associate Professor of Applied Statistics University of Dhaka, Bangladesh
INTRODUCTION
What is Covid-19?
First Covid-19 Infection in Bangladesh
Current Statistics (as of April 7)
164 33 No. of tests in last 24
17 114 hours: 679
4289 1
10 1
3 0.1 Male: 114
3 26 Female: 50
Covid-19 (Coronavirus) in Bangladesh
According to Wikipedia [1], coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province, and has since spread globally, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic. Common symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath. Other symptoms may include fatigue, muscle pain, diarrhea, sore throat, loss of smell and abdominal pain.
On 8 March, the first three coronavirus cases were confirmed. The IEDCR director Prof. Meerjady Sabrina Flora announced at a press conference that 2 men and 1 woman had tested positive for COVID-19. The patients were aged between 20 and 35. Of them, two men were Italy returnees and the woman was a family member of one of these two. Approximately about 111 tests were
conducted in Bangladesh.
No. of days to double infections:
Total recovered: Total active cases: Current serious critical: Total cases per 1 million: Deaths per 1 million: Test per 1 million:
Gender-wise distribution of cases This report is published by the author himself and the research results are based on the reported data including other secondary sources. The main objective of this report is to analyse the current situation of coronavirus in Bangladesh and to predict Covid-19 infections, deaths and other parameters on daily basis.
Total infection: Total deaths: Total tests: Case fatality rate:
PROJECTION
Infection Projection
Figure 1: Projected
and Actual Covid-19 Infections in Bangladesh for April 2020
Covid-19 infection cases are projected based on the assumption that Bangladesh could experience the similar doubling time in days (5 or 5.5days) as India and Pakistan experienced as of April 6, 2020. This is an adhoc non-parametric procedure. The projection has been made on April 7, 2020.
Following Figure-1 shows the projection details for infections for the April month of 2020. This graph also shows the actual number of infections as reported by IEDCR for the respective day, which would be updated or embeded with the projection figure on regular basis. The folllowing Figure-3 shows the projected and actual number of infections and deaths together for the month April 2020. This is
123
462
984
1680
1968 2624
3696
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
6-Apr
8-Apr
10-Apr
12-Apr
14-Apr
16-Apr
18-Apr
20-Apr
22-Apr
24-Apr
26-Apr
28-Apr
30-Apr
no of cases
Projected and Actual Covid-19 Infections in
Bangladesh for April 2020
(projection is based on 5 days--doubling time as India and Pakistan)
Death Projection
Figure 2: Projected
and Actual Covid-19 Deaths in Bangladesh for April 2020
Covid-19 deaths are projected based on the assumption that Bangladesh could experience the average doubling time (5 days; average of 4 days for India and 6 days for Pakistan days) of India and Pakistan . The doubling time is considered as of April 6, 2020. The projection has been made on April 7, 2020. This is an adhoc non-parametric procedure. Following Figure--2 shows the projected
number of deaths for the April month. This graph also shows the actual number of deaths as
reported by IEDCR for the respective day, which would be updated or embeded with the projection figure on regular basis.. The folllowing Figure-3 shows the projected and actual number of infections and deaths together for the month April 2020. This is just the combined of Figure 1 and 2.
17 24
34
48 68
136
192 272
384
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
6-Apr
8-Apr
10-Apr
12-Apr
14-Apr
16-Apr
18-Apr
20-Apr
22-Apr
24-Apr
26-Apr
28-Apr
30-Apr
no of cases
Projected and Actual Covid-19 Deaths in Bangladesh
for April 2020
(based on 5 days--doubling time as average of India (4 days) and Pakistan (6 days))
Bangladesh may get 3700 total infected people that are reported cases only by the end of April while the death toll could be 384.
Figure 3: Projected
and Actual Covid-19 Infection and Deaths in Bangladesh for April
2020
328 492 840 1312 1968 3040 3696 17 24 34 4868 136 192272 3840 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr
no of cases
Projected and Actual Covid-19 Infections and
Deaths in Bangladesh for April 2020
(projection on infections is based on 5 days--doubling time as average of India (4 days) and Pakistan (6 days))
(projection of deaths is based on 5 days--doubling time as avera
INFECTION TRAJECTORY
CASE FATALITY RATE
Figure-5 shows Bangladesh has the highest CFR rate which is the over 10% compared to south asian's other countries India, Pakistan and SriLanka. Note that CFR is the case fatality rate that is the ratio between the number of confirmed deaths from the disease and the number of confirmed cases, not total cases.
Figure 4: Infection Trajectory as of April 6, 2020 Data for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan
and SriLanka Who Cross 100 Confirmed Cases (figure source: our world in data).
REFERENCES
1. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus. Access on April 7, 2020 2. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Access on April 7, 2020 3. Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus. Access on April 7, 2020
How to cite: Khan, M.H.R. (2020). Covid-19 (Coronavirus) in Bangladesh, Report No. 1-08042020
