Michigan Chamber’s &
Michigan Banker’s
Update and Outlook –
2022 Macro/Micro Outlook
Presenter:
John Augustine, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
Huntington Private Bank
December 2021
Huntington National Bank
• Founded in 1866 and headquartered in Columbus, Ohio
• $174 billion in bank assets
• More than 1,100 branches in 12 states, with certain businesses operating in extended geographies.
• $23 billion in assets under management
• 35 Private Bank offices
• Listed on NASDAQ, Ticker: HBAN
• Member of S&P 500 Index
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The Never-Before Progression –
1. 2020
➢ Patience – business and investing
➢ Our focus – Economic Team
2. 2021
➢ Rebuilding – business and investment portfolios
➢ Our focus – Equity Team
3. 2022
➢ Normalizing – business and financial planning
➢ Our focus – Fixed Income Team
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2022 Macro & Micro –
Five Areas of Focus
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Source = Factset
#1 US Economic Trends –
Focus on Housing and Vehicles in 2022
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3 2
5 4
Consensus 2022 real QoQ GDP forecast (Bloomberg):
• Q1 = 4.3%
• Q2 = 4.0%
• Q3 = 3.2%
• Q4 = 2.6%
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Source = Factset
#2 US Inflation Trends –
Commodities, wages and owners’ equivalent rent
1 2
Consensus 2022 YoY CPI forecast (Bloomberg):
• Q1 = 5.6%
• Q2 = 4.0%
• Q3 = 3.2%
• Q4 = 2.6%
Sources = Factset
#3 Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve –
Thinking about 5 th Fed Rate hike cycle in 30 years…watch 2-year
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1 2 3 4
Consensus 2022 10-year yield estimate (Bloomberg):
• Q1 = 1.73%
• Q2 = 1.82%
• Q3 = 1.90%
• Q4 = 1.99%
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Source = Factset
#4 S&P 500 Earnings per Share Trend –
Likely too low for 2022 with productivity gains and pricing power
2022 S&P 500 EPS growth est. to be led by (Bloomberg):
• Cons. Discretionary (+47.1%)
• Industrial (+36.3%)
• Energy (+28.7%)
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Sources = Factset
#5 Corporate, Individual and Bank Cash Levels – Record cash balances are looking for homes
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2
3
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Michigan Economy –
Continuing recovery
Source = Factset
Michigan Quarterly GDP vs. USA
We are coming-out of the Great Lockdown close to overall USA
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Great Recession – Michigan lagged before,
during and after.
Great Lockdown – Michigan stayed closer to the national averages during and after.
Source = Factset
Michigan Employment Trends -
Employment still recovering in major Michigan cities (…like US)
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1
2
Source = Factset
Michigan Employment Trends -
Employment still recovering in smaller Michigan cities
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3
4
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State of Markets –
History, fundamentals and
trends
Dow Jones Industrial Average –
Will the Dow follow its history in stepping higher?
Source = Factset
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1 2 3
1942 to 1967 – up 10-fold
1981 to 2000 – up 10-fold
2009 to Current – up 3.5-fold
US Real Yields –
Most negative since the 1970s
Source = Factset
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1 2 3
Outlook 2022 –
Fiscal and Monetary Policy support begin to wane
1. Economy
➢ Normalization, substitution and continued growth.
2. Inflation
➢ Slowing to the 3% range by mid-2022?
➢ We hope the Fed is right on this, and inflation slows.
3. Monetary Policy
➢ We suspect two Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022.
4. Interest Rates
➢ We see the 10-year yield approaching 2% by mid-2022.
5. Corporate Earnings
➢ Given the current pricing power, we see the +8% growth estimate for the S&P 500 as too low.
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
This publication contains general information. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. Any forecasts presented are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. Individuals should consult with their investment adviser regarding their particular circumstances. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. Contents herein have been compiled or derived in part from sources believed reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, Huntington is not responsible for those sources and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
International investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility of foreign securities, political risks, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. Prices of emerging markets securities can be significantly more volatile than the prices of securities in developed countries and currency risk and political risks are accentuated in emerging markets.
Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risks, and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating or credit worthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline.
Huntington Private Bank®is a team of professionals dedicated to delivering a full range of wealth and financial services. The team is comprised of Private Bankers, who offer premium banking solutions, Wealth and Investments Management professionals, who provide, among other services, trust and estate administration and portfolio management from The Huntington National Bank, and licensed investment representatives of The Huntington Investment Company, who offers securities and investment advisory services. Huntington Private Bank®is a federally registered service mark of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated.
The Huntington Investment Company, is a registered broker dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The Huntington Investment Company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated.
Insurance products are offered by Huntington Insurance, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated and underwritten by third party insurance carriers not affiliated with Huntington Insurance, Inc.
Trust and investment management services are provided by The Huntington National Bank, a national bank with fiduciary powers. The Huntington National Bank is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated.
Investment, Insurance and Non–deposit Trust products are: NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT GUARANTEED BY THE BANK • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • MAY LOSE VALUE
The Huntington National Bank is Member FDIC.
