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Market Briefing:

Commodity Prices

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 9, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

(2)

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Commodity Price Indexes

1-2

Energy

3-4

Basic Metals

5-7

Lumber

8

Precious Metals

9-10

Agriculture

11-12

Misc: CRB Index

13-14

Misc: Energy

15-16

Misc: Agriculture

17

Misc: Precious Metals

18

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 200 300 400 500 600 200 300 400 500 600 2/8

CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES*

(1967=100)

Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

* Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 200 300 400 500 600 700 200 300 400 500 600 700 2/8

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*

(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 2/8 2/8

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES

(1967=100)

Raw Industrials (422.7) Metals Component (581.8)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 75 175 275 375 475 575 675 75 175 275 375 475 575 675 2/8 2/9

COMMODITY PRICES

(1967=100)

CRB Futures Price Index CRB Raw Industrials Price Index

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2/9

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per barrel)

Price (33.12)

* Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .3 .9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 .3 .9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 2/9

GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per gallon)

Price (0.90)

* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

200-day moving average

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .2 .6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 .2 .6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 2/9

HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE*

(dollar per gallon)

Price (0.97)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2/9

NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per MMBTU)

Price (2.10)

* Nearby contract.

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

(7)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 2/8

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS*

(daily, 1967=100)

200-day moving average

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2/9

COPPER FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per pound)

Price (203.85)

200-day moving average * Nearby futures contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2/9

LEAD, RN NA SOLDER CASH PRICE

(cents per pound)

Price (111.93)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2/9

STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP CASH PRICE

(dollars per gr. ton)

Price (1560.00)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

(9)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2/9

TIN CASH PRICE

(cents per pound)

Price (969.95)

Source: Haver Analytics. 200-day moving average

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 2/9

ZINC CASH PRICE

(cents per pound)

Price (85.70)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

(10)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 125 175 225 275 325 375 425 475 525 125 175 225 275 325 375 425 475 525 2/9

RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE*

($/1000 board ft)

Price (250.70)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

(11)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 225 400 575 750 925 1100 1275 1450 1625 1800 1975 225 400 575 750 925 1100 1275 1450 1625 1800 1975 D A 2/9

GOLD CASH PRICE

(dollars per troy ounce)

Price (1191.00)

200-day moving average

D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 2/9

SILVER CASH PRICE

(dollars per troy ounce)

Price (15.44)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

(12)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2/9

PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per troy ounce)

Price (937.70)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2/9

PALLADIUM CASH PRICE

($/troy oz)

Price (522.00)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

(13)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1750 1950 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1750 1950 2/9

SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

Price (863.25)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 2/9

CORN FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

Price (361.00)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

(14)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2/9

WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

Price (457.50)

200-day moving average * Nearby contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2/9

COTTON FUTURES PRICE*

($/pound)

Price (0.59)

Source: Haver Analytics. * Nearby contract.

200-day moving average

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

(15)

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*

(1967=100)

2/8

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 200 300 400 500 600 700 200 300 400 500 600 700 2/8

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*

(1967=100, ratio scale)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

(16)

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250

CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS*

(1967=100, ratio scale)

2/8

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*

(1967=100, ratio scale)

2/8

* Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

(17)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2/8

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.

Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2/8 2/8

COMMODITY PRICES

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel)

* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price.

Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

(18)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 2/9

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES*

(dollars per gallon)

Heating Oil (0.97) Gasoline (0.90)

* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 27 52 77 102 127 152 177 2 27 52 77 102 127 152 177

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE

(dollars per barrel, ratio scale)

Jan

* Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

(19)

Figure 32.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 2/9

CORN FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1750 1950 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1750 1950 2/9

SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2/9

WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*

(cents per bushel)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 2/9

COTTON FUTURES PRICE*

($/pound)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. * Nearby contract, closing price.

yardeni.com

(20)

Figure 33.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 225 400 575 750 925 1100 1275 1450 1625 1800 1975 225 400 575 750 925 1100 1275 1450 1625 1800 1975 2/9

GOLD FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per troy ounce)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 2/9

SILVER FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per troy ounce)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2/9

PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*

(dollars per troy ounce)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2/9

PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE

($/troy oz)

200-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. * Nearby contract.

yardeni.com

(21)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2/9

S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX

(January 5, 1970=100)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 2/9

S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX

(December 31, 1969=100)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

(22)

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 2/9

S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX

(December 31, 1969=100)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 2/9

S&P GSCI CORN INDEX

(December 31 1969=100)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

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contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not

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, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued

without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs

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recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures

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