Post-Election Update
November 4, 2020
California voters cast an estimated 14.8 million votes both in person and by mail in yesterday’s election.
The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket easily won California’s 55 electoral votes by a margin of 65-33%.
Democrats added to their supermajorities in both Houses of the California Legislature going into the 2021-2022 legislative session.
Democrats held onto most of their 2018 gains in US House seats in California, though early results show a slight loss of two total seats. Those may be updated as remaining votes are processed.
Proposition 15 — Split Roll — is presently losing by a narrow margin while
Proposition 22 — Uber and Lyft’s exemption from AB 5 — appears to have passed by a comfortable margin.
Here are the results as of 11 a.m. today, November 4, 2020. However, because so many Californians voted prior to Election Day, there are a significant number of votes remaining to be tabulated. As a result, these late ballots — which are thought to be heavily
Democratic— could alter the outcomes of a handful of close races.
California State Senate Results
Of the four Republican Senate seats targeted by the Democrats, the Republican candidates are: winning narrowly (Wilk), tied (Morrell seat) or losing (Chang and
Moorlach). It is likely that the uncounted votes will skew Democratic. Presently the Senate is 29D-11R, so it is possible that once the votes are counted it could be 33D-7R. In the top Democrat vs. Democrat race, Labor- and Building Industry-backed Democrat Dave
Cortese defeated business-backed Democrat Ann Ravel to take the place of Senator Jim Beall.
Contested Senate Races
Republican seats targeted by Democrats
SD 29 Ling Ling Chang (R) Diamond Bar Sen. Ling Ling Chang (R) (48.4%) Josh Newman (D) (51.6%)
Likely Democratic pick up. In 2016 Newman defeated Chang. Two years later, Chang replaced Newman when he was recalled for voting for the gas tax increase. Newman appears headed back to the Senate.
SD 23 Mike Morrell (R)– Rancho Cucamonga Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R) (50.0%) Abigail Medina (D) (50.0%)
Likely Democratic pick up. Sen Republican Senator Mike Morrell is termed out. Late ballots should increase Medina’s lead.
SD 37 John Moorlach (R) – Costa Mesa Sen John Moorlach (R) (48.1%) Dave Min (D) (51.9%)
Likely Democratic pick up as another GOP district in Orange County falls. Min is a law professor.
SD 21 Scott Wilk (R) -- Santa Clarita Sen. Scott Wilk (R) (50.1%) Kipp Mueller (D) (49.9%)
Possible Democratic pick up. GOP Senator Wilk’s narrow lead may disappear as late ballots are counted,
Contested Democrat vs Democrat Seats
SD 11 Scott Weiner (D) – San Francisco Sen. Scott Weiner (D) 59.1% Jackie Fielder (D) 40.9%
Only in San Francisco -- Sen. Weiner, one of the most liberal legislators, was challenged from the left.
SD 15 Jim Beall (D) – Santa Clara Ann Ravel (D) 46.2% Dave Cortese (D) 53.8%
Ravel, who was the head of the Federal Elections Commission under Barack Obama, was considered the moderate in this race and was backed by the business community.
Cortese, a county supervisor and the son of former Assembly Member Dom Cortese, was backed by labor.
The Rest
SD 1 Brian Dahle (R) – Bieber Sen. Brian Dahle (R) 56.9% Pamela Swartz (D) 43.1% SD 3 Bill Dodd (D) – Napa
Sen. Bill Dodd (D) 70.4% Carlos Santamaria (R) 29.6% SD 5 Cathleen Galgiani (D) -- Stockton
Asm. Susan Eggman (D) 58.7% Jim Ridenour (R) 41.3%
Moderate Democrat Sen Cathleen Galgiani is replaced by a more liberal Susan Eggman. SD 7 Steve Glazer (D) – Orinda
Sen. Steve Glazer (D) 69.1% Julie Ann Mobley (R) 30.9% SD 9 Nancy Skinner (D) – Berkeley
Sen. Nancy Skinner (D) 89.3% Jamie Dluzak (Libertarian) 10.7% SD 13 Jerry Hill (D) – San Mateo
Josh Becker (D) 77.3% Alex Glew (R) 22.7%
The real race to replace Sen. Jerry Hill was in March when Silicon Valley-backed Josh Becker beat trial attorney favorite and former Assembly Member Sally Lieber.
SD 17 Bill Monning (D) – Monterey John Laird (D) 68%
Vicki Nohrden (R) 32%
Former Assembly Member and former Secretary of the California Natural Resources Agency replaces termed out Sen Bill Monning.
SD 19 Hannah-Beth Jackson – Santa Barbara Asm. Monique Limón (D) 65.8%
Gary Michaels (R) 34,2%
Termed out Senator Hannah-Beth Jackson is replaced by a slightly less liberal Asm. Monique Limón.
SD 25 Anthony Portantino (D) -- La Cañada Flintridge Sen. Anthony Portantino (D) 65.5%
Kathleen Hazelton (R) 34.5% SD 27 Henry Stern (D) -- Calabasas
Sen. Henry Stern (D) 61.5% Houman Salem (R) 38.5% SD 31 Richard Roth (D) – Riverside
Sen. Richard Roth (D) 59.5% Rod Taylor (R) 40.5%
SD 33 Lena Gonzalez (D) – Long Beach Sen. Lena Gonzalez (D) 62.6% Elizabeth Castillo (D) 37.4% SD 35 Bradford (D) – Gardena
Sen. Steven Bradford (D) 73.4% Anthony Perry (AIP) 26.6% SD 39 Toni Atkins (D) – San Diego
Sen. Toni Atkins (D) 67.5% Linda Blankenship (R) 32.5%
Complete List of California Senate race results.
California State Assembly Results
As in the Senate, the prospect of a massive shift in leadership was not on the ballot. More interesting have been efforts on the Democratic side to shape the type of candidates that advanced to the General Elections. Both organized labor and environmental groups attempted to threaten Democrats viewed as “moderate” with Democratic Primary opponents, which was a failure. As an example, environmentalists pushed a “No
(environmental protection) Rollbacks” campaign aimed at several candidates, to no avail, as every one of their “targets” won both their Primary and General Election races, with the exception of Sen. Moorlach, whose seat was heavily targeted by Democrats anyway. There were very few competitive seats, though there were some changes in a handful of seats vacated by Assembly Members attempting to move to higher offices. Republicans actually look to have picked up one seat, leaving the count at 60 Democrats, 19
Republicans, and one No Party Preference (former Asm. Republican Leader Chad Mayes, NPP-Yucaipa).
Contested Races
Republican seats targeted by Democrats
AD 35 Jordan Cunningham (R) San Luis Obispo Asm. Cunningham (R) 52%
Dawn Addis 48%
Popular and well-respected incumbent Jordan Cunningham (R-San Luis Obispo) appears to have won a close re-election in the face of some fears due to the “reverse coattails” of President Trump. In the Primary, Cunningham bested Democrat Dawn Addis by a 57%-43% margin; in the General, he won 52%-48%.
Asm. Tom Lackey (R) 54.9% Steve Fox 45.1%
Republican incumbent Tom Lackey faced a surprisingly stiff challenge from former Democratic Assembly Member Steve Fox. Fox was considered less-than-stellar in his prior Assembly term, facing harassment charges, and being regarded as a
disappointment. Fox won in 2012 but lost the three subsequent races to Lackey in 2014, 2016, and 2018. In the Primary, he edged six other Democrats, an outcome for which Republicans had hoped, and Lackey was re-elected by a 54.9%-45.1% count.
AD 55 Phillip Chen (R) Yorba Linda Asm. Philip Chen (R) 54.6% Andrew Rodriguez (D) 45.4%
Birthplace to Richard Nixon, this district is now one-third Latino and one-third Asian American, and 40% of adults here have college degrees. In 2014, Republicans
outnumbered Democrats in the district by more than 8 points. This year, Democrats had the slight advantage, which is why 26-year old Mayor Pro Tem Rodriguez had a shot. Asm. Chen however has a comfortable lead to retain his seat.
AD 68 Steven Choi (R) Irvine Asm. Steven Choi (R) 52.2% Melissa Fox (D) 47.8%
Fox is a lawyer and small business owner and brands herself as a pragmatic coalition-builder. She courted the disaffected educated white women Republicans. Fox was in the top 15 fund-raisers for any Assembly race in the state this year, having nearly doubled Choi’s haul and outraising any other non-incumbent by far.
AD 72 Tyler Diep (R) Huntington Beach (Open seat) Janet Nguyen (R) 53.6%
Deidre Nguyen (D) 46.4%
Incumbent Republican Tyler Diep didn’t make the top two Primary after previously being the only GOP freshman to emerge from 2018’s blue wave election. Although the top two candidates both escaped from Vietnam as children and have deep ties within the district’s Vietnamese community, they provided a clear ideological choice. In 2014, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 10 points here. It is down to 1 point. A Janet Nguyen here helps Republicans hold the line in the Assembly.
Perennial swing-seaters
AD 60 Sabrina Cervantes (D) Riverside Asm. Sabrina Cervantes (D) 56.5% Bill Essayli (R) 43.5%
AD 60 is the most dramatic example of shifting voter registration. When Republican Eric Linder won the seat six years ago by 23 percentage points, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 5 points. The district swung in 2016 and voters replaced Linder with the Cervantes. Although Democrats hold at 11 percentage point lead over Republicans, parties have poured in more than $1 million. Asm. Cervantes has a comfortable lead at the finish line.
Recent seat-flippers
AD 74 Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) Laguna Beach Asm. Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) 51.4% Diane Dixon (R) 48.6%
This district was one of the Democratic Party’s toughest retention battles, pitting a moderate incumbent with a staggering amount of money against a Newport Beach City Council Member and traditional Orange County conservative. The GOP still holds slight registration advantage, but voters sent a Democrat to the Legislature in 2018 for the first time since its boundaries were drawn and voted for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom over his Republican opponent.
AD 76 Tasha Boerner-Horvath (D) Encinitas Asm. Boerner-Horvath (D) 57.5% Melaine Burkholder (R) 42.5%
This district has been moving blue for years. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump here by more than 12 points, and Democrats already outnumber GOP voters. In the March 2020 primary, the Boerner-Horvath won nearly 58% of the vote. Anti-vaccination activist Burkholder struggled to raise cash to put up a real fight and was outraised by more than 15-to-1.
Democrat/Independent seats targeted by Republicans
AD 38 Christy Smith (D) Los Angeles/Riverside Suzette Martinez Valladares (R) 75.9% Lucie Lapointe Volotzsky (R) 24.1%
When incumbent Christy Smith gave up the seat to run for the open Congressional seat vacated by scandal-ridden Democrat Katie Hill, most were stunned when two Republicans won the top two spots in the Primary. Suzette Martinez Valladares emerged as the top vote-getter, and that held up in the General Election, as she beat Lucie Lapointe Volotzsky, 75.9%-24.1%.
AD 42 Chad Mayes (NPP) Yucca Valley Asm. Chad Mayes (NPP) 58.2% Andrew Kotyuk (D) 41.8%
Mayes, the anti-Trump voice of the Republican party changed his political affiliation to No Party Preference in 2018. He ran on his appeal to moderates and independents and on his name recognition. Kotyuk ran as a partisan Republican and his party was out for revenge.
AD 77 Brian Maienschein (D) San Diego Asm. Brian Maienschein (D) 57.8% June Yang Cutter (R) 42.2%
Incumbent Maienschein eked out a 600-vote win in November of 2018 and became a Democrat two months later. Cutter, an employment law litigator who regularly represents employers and has never been elected to office, was the GOP choice to take their revenge on the defector. Voters in this district though have been favoring Democratic candidates since giving Clinton a 16-point edge over Trump.
Contested Democrat vs Democrat Seats
AD 59 Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D) Los Angeles Asm. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D) 58.7% Efren Martinez Red (D) 41.3%
This area of South Central saw a swelling Black population in the post-war years and formed the seat of Black culture and political power in the city. Now three out of four residents of this patchwork of Gateway Cities are Latino. This shift and Asm. Jones-Sawyer second place finish in the Primary could have spelled disaster for the incumbent.
Other seats of interest
AD 13 Stockton
Carlos Villapudua (D) 46.7% Kathy Miller (D) 53.5%
With Susan Eggman’s win and move to the State Senate vacated by Cathleen Galgiani due to term limits, two Democrats, Carlos Villapudua and Kathy Miller squared off Nov. 3. Both served on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors. After Villapudua topped Miller by four points in a three-way contested Primary, Miller appears to have claimed the seat by a 53.5%-46.7% margin.
AD 20 Bill Quirk (D) Hayward Asm. Bill Quirk 59.5%
Alexis Villalobos 40.5%
Incumbent Bill Quirk (D-Hayward) received a robust challenge from Alexis Villalobos, a 20-something contender who emerged from a three-Democrat, one-Republican Primary. Quirk received 47% in the crowded Primary field, and 59.5% in winning the General Election.
AD 25 Kansen Chu (D) San Jose Alex Lee (D) 73.1% Bob Brunton (R) 26.9%
Asm. Kansen Chu retired from this seat to run for the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors, and 2017 UC-Davis graduate Alex Lee will replace him in this seat. AD 37 Monique Limón (D) Santa Barbara
Steve Bennett (D) 69.3% Charles Cole (R) 30.7%
With Asm. Monique Limón running for the Senate to replace termed out Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D-Santa Barbara), Ventura County Supervisor/environmentalist/teacher Steve Bennett will replace her after fending off five other Democrats in the Primary and easily defeating Republican challenger Charles Cole.
Complete List of California Assembly results.
Propositions
California loves to serve up a smorgasbord of measures on the ballot to test the
intelligence and patience of the voters. This year the campaigns created to either pass or stop the dozen or so propositions have exceeded $750 million mark. Some of these items could have major impacts on all segments of the state if voted in by the electorate. A rundown of the most important results include:
In the property tax arena, Proposition 15 is the most significant challenge to the Proposition 13 Tax Revolt since its inception in 1978. Prop. 15, known as the Split Roll Tax would remove the lower Prop. 13 tax limits and replace it with current market level for commercial property exceeding $3 million in value. It is estimated that Prop. 15 would generate between $6.5 billion and $11.5 billion to be allocated to schools and local government, including special districts. More than $150 million was spent on the campaign with about an even split between the proponents and opponents. Teacher unions and the Zuckerberg Institute supported it arguing the funds are desperately needed to assist schools and local government in providing essential services during this difficult time while business groups like the California Roundtable, California Chamber of Commerce and anti-tax organizations opposed it on the basis that such a significant higher level of property taxes will force many California businesses to downsize or leave the state and would negatively impact jobs and the cost of goods and services for the public. Prop. 15 was expected to be very close and it is losing by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin.
Proposition 19 is the other important tax measure on the Ballot. Prop. 19 is a revised version of a proposition that was defeated on the 2018 Ballot. It seeks to extend the portability of lower property tax bases by allowing Californians over 55, disabled, or victims of wildfire to carry their existing lower tax rates to new homes located anywhere in the state. It also limits use of a lower tax base for those that inherit homes but do not move into them. The new revenue will be allocated to local government, including the establishment of a Fire Response Fund for fire
departments. The California Realtors Association and the California Professional Firefighters are the sponsors and spent approximately $45 million on the campaign and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association opposed it with a budget of around $50,000. Prop. 19 is leading by 51.5% to 48.5% vote.
Proposition 22, sponsored by Uber, Lyft and Doordash and backed by an
extraordinary $200 million war chest was written to protect their business models by allowing them to continue to treat their drivers and delivery personnel as
independent contractors rather than as employees as prescribed by a recent California Supreme Court decision and codified by Assembly Bill 5 (Lorena Gonzalez). During the contentious debate on AB 5, the author and proponents
crafted various carve-outs for certain businesses and professions but were unwilling to do so for the app-based gig companies sponsoring this proposition. The
California Labor Federation and other labor union organizations spent $20 million in opposing Prop. 22. Prop. 22 is winning decisively by a 58.4% to 41.6% margin. Proposition 24 is designed to bolster the current California Consumer Privacy Law by establishing a new state agency dedicated to enforcing privacy laws, increasing penalties against violators, and allowing consumers to prevent their personal information from being sold. Sponsored by Alastair Mactaggart, the architect of the existing privacy law, the proponents spent $6.5 million to support it. A modest budget of $52,000 was spent in opposition led by the Consumer Federation of California and the ACLU arguing that Prop. 24 actually weakened the current law. Prop. 24 is leading by a comfortable 56.1% to 43.9% vote.
Proposition 16 would reinstate the affirmative action program, which had been discontinued after the passage of Proposition 209 in 1996. Prop. 16 would allow diversity as a factor in public employment, education and contracting decisions by expressly repealing the constitutional ban on considering race, sex, and ethnicity in these sectors. The campaign was backed by several prominent Democratic
leaders, including Senators Feinstein and Harris and the University of California Board of Regents, and is opposed by the Asian American Coalition for Education and various Republican legislators. Approximately $31 million was spent on the campaign in support of Prop. 16 and $1.6 million in opposition. Prop. 16 is being defeated by a 56.1% to 43.9% vote.
Results of the other Propositions:
Proposition 14 authorizing bonds to support stem cell research is winning by a vote of 51.1% to 48.9%.
Proposition 17 to restore the right to vote after completion of a prison term is winning by a 59.0% to 41.0% margin.
Proposition 18 to allow 17-year olds to vote in Primary and Special Elections if they will turn 18 by the General Election is losing by a 55.1% to 44.9% vote.
Proposition 20 to restrict parole for certain offenses now classified to be non-violent and to authorize felony sentences for certain offenses now classified to be
misdemeanors is going down by a 62.3% to 37.7% vote.
Proposition 21 to extend the authority of local governments to enact rent control measures is losing by a 59.8% to 40.2% margin.
Proposition 23 to establish state requirements for kidney dialysis clinics is going down by a 64.0% to 36.0% vote.
Proposition 25 is a Referendum on the law that replaced the money bail system with a system based on public safety and flight risk is losing by a 55.4% to 44.6%
margin.
Complete List of California Proposition results.
Prepared by: Tony Gonzalez [email protected] (916) 879-9317 cell Carl London [email protected] (916) 952-5130 cell
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