BACKGROUND ANALYSIS RETAIL MARKET STUDY UPDATE

(1)

W. SCOTT MORGAN, MCIP, RPP

W. SCOTT MORGAN & ASSOCIATES LIMITED

15 Grenadier Heights,

Toronto, Ontario

M6S 2W5

416-762-6384

[email protected]

PROJECTIONS OF RESIDUAL MARKET DEMANDS

FINAL

2014, 2016, 2021 & 2031

RETAIL MARKET STUDY UPDATE

RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL & SERVICE USES

UPDATED FEBRUARY 8, 2013

MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE

(2)

1 RETAIL MARKET STUDY UPDATE

TOWN OF MILTON &

MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE

PROJECTIONS OF RESIDUAL MARKET DEMANDS

2014, 2016, 2021 & 2031

RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL & SERVICE USES

Updated February 8, 2013

Acronyms:

FSR:

Food Store Retail

NFSR:

Non-Food Store Retail (herein defined as GAFO + DRUG)

GAFO:

General Merchandise / Apparel / Furnishings / Other Retail

HAAS:

Home and Auto Supply (including Canadian Tire)

TBA:

Tires, Batteries & Accessories

HI:

Home Improvement

L/B/W:

Liquor / Beer / Wine

WMC:

Warehouse Membership Club

FIRE:

Finance / Insurance / Real Estate

SBM:

Services to Business Management

GLA:

Gross Leasable Area

CBD:

Central Business District

LCA:

Local Commercial Area

CPR:

Commercial Policy Review

MEV:

Milton Education Village

Definitional Note:

“Residual Demands” (“Residuals”) are “ease of entry” calculations of how much

space can enter the market without causing sales transfers away from existing

retailers. Sales transfers against existing retailers occur wherever the proposed

space exceeds the residual space demands.

Purpose of Retail Market Study Update:

This Retail Market Study Update dated February 8, 2013 provides background analysis

and input into the Background Report for the Secondary Plan being prepared for the

Milton Education Village (MEV).

(3)

2 This Study Update builds upon analyses previously conducted for the Town of Milton.

These include studies dated June 9, 2006 (Commercial Policy Review), February 20,

2007 (Tabular Update), October 14, 2009 (Boyne Survey), and August 5, 2011 (Fieldgate

Peer Review).

Certain empirical data from the June 9, 2006 study are used in this Study Update. These

include a consumer telephone survey to establish base year local capture rates that Milton

retailers obtain from Trade Area residents, and licence plate surveys to define the

economic geography from which Milton retailers obtain the majority of their sales, as

well as inflow from beyond.

The square footage floor space inventory of retail and selected commercial and service

space has been updated to reflect space in the market in 2011.

All calculations and projections are expressed in 2011 constant dollars to coincide with

the 2011 base year.

Two analytical approaches are adopted – a Town-wide macro-level residual demand

analysis and a more localized analysis employing per capita space ratios.

Macro Analysis – Attached Tables 1-20:

The first approach updates the aggregate (or macro) analysis factored on the Town as a

whole by analyzing:

• the 2011 base year distribution of spending by Trade Area residents and local

capture rates by Milton retailers, and

• the macro-level demand for any future expansions of the retail commercial

infrastructure assuming medium term planned growth to 2016 and longer term

planned growth to 2021 and 2031.

The macro-level analysis yields residual space estimates for retail and selected

commercial uses. This is augmented by applying per capita space ratios to the population

growth beyond the 2011 base year for other commercial uses (e.g. for Other Service,

Financial Institution, and Local Office space).

More specifically, this Study Update examines “

retail and selected commercial

” space

demands and supply. This terminology is NAICS-based per uses listed in

Appendix B-2

:

• retail

uses that correspond in Appendix B-2 to Study Codes 1 to 123, including

food stores, pharmacies and personal care stores, GAFO stores (General

merchandise and department stores, Apparel and accessories stores, Furniture,

(4)

3

• selected commercial

uses that correspond in Appendix B-2 to Study Codes 124

to 130 (financial / banking services); 137 to 143 (professional services); 151 to

155 (doctor / dentist / other health services); 172 to 174 (restaurant / food

services); and 184 to 196 (personal services).

Note:

Selected commercial codes exclude other commercial uses such as Consumer Rental

Services 131-136 (

rental of cars, electronics and appliances, furniture, formal wear, costumes,

equipment etc.

), Administrative Services 144-146 (

employment / business / tourism etc.

);

Educational Services 147-150 (

schools for business, computer training, athletic instruction,

driver training etc.

), Social Services 156-159 (

family counselling, food banks, vocational

rehabilitation, day care etc.

), Arts / Entertainment / Recreational Services 160-171 (

movie

theatre / cinema, live theatre, sports arena / stadium, amusement arcade, casino, other gambling,

marina, fitness and recreational sports centres, bowling alley, billiard hall, amusement rides,

miniature golf etc.

), Automotive Sales and Service (

new and used cars, recreational vehicles,

motorcycles, boats, ATV’s, snowmobiles, trailers, aircraft etc.

), Automotive Repair and

Maintenance 175-178 (

mechanical and electrical, body and paint, interior, glass, car wash

),

Personal Goods Repair and Maintenance 179-183(

home and garden equipment, appliances,

electronics, reupholstery, shoe repair, bike, watches, key cutting

) and Non-Store Retailers (

mail

order houses, vending machine operators, fuel dealers, gas bars, monument dealers, direct selling

establishments etc.

).

Localized Analysis – Attached Tables A-E:

The second analytical approach examines the scale and type of retail and commercial

uses that might best accommodate market needs generated within the Milton Education

Village (MEV).

The methodology essentially multiplies population by per capita space planning ratios for

18 categories of retail and commercial space. These space planning ratios collectively

add up to 30.0 square feet per capita across all 18 categories.

Inflow and outflow adjustments are made for each space category to yield comparative

estimates of how much space can be supported by the MEV population base by itself, the

Boyne population base by itself, and the Boyne plus MEV combined population base.

The methodology assumes that the future spending patterns of MEV residents adjusted

for inflow and outflow will be similar to those of residents of the Boyne Survey since the

MEV can be characterized as a westerly extension of the Boyne Survey.

(5)

4 combined ultimate population of 56,500 persons.

The additional space required for the MEV’s 6,500 ultimate population base is available

for local facilities to serve the MEV population and the Employment Node, as well as

certain site-specific expansions of the Secondary Mixed Use Nodes at Bronte Street and

Louis St. Laurent (1

st

/Louis) in the Boyne and Sherwood Surveys.

Population Projections:

Best Planning Estimates for the Town dated June 2011 total some

228,085

persons. This

exceeds by over 53,000 persons the

175,000

persons tested in the Town’s earlier market

investigations such as the Town’s market study of June 9, 2006 and the Town’s Update

of October 14, 2009.

The additional growth is reflected in Attached Tables 1-20 which parallel the

methodologies used in the Town’s market study of June 9, 2006 and Update of October

14, 2009 within Milton’s historic trade area.

Base Year Market Parameters:

This Study Update adopts certain base year market parameters that include the Ontario

2011 per capita expenditures by retail category, 2005 per capita household incomes (2006

Census income data), regression equations linking incomes to expenditure levels (2009

survey of household spending data), 2011 constant dollars, 2011 base year, and a 2011

retail commercial floorspace inventory.

Future test years are 2014, 2016, 2021, and 2031. Market projections incorporate Best

Planning population estimates dated June 2011 and exclude the Census undercount.

In terms of inventory, this Study Update does not net out from existing space any “plus

department” space (such as Wal-Mart’s food component and the Real Canadian

Superstore’s NFSR component), but applies them at full scale within their respective

retail categories.

Compared to the 2006 inventory, the updated 2011 floorspace inventory reveals that over

one million square feet of new space has been added over five years (thereby boosting the

Primary Zone from 1.770 million square feet in 2006 to 2.864 million square feet in

2011). This new inventory was conducted and coded by NAICS (North American

Industrial Classification System) in March / April 2012.

This Study Update also tests designated commercial lands and zoned commercial lands

that are as yet unbuilt.

(6)

5 In addition to Milton’s significantly higher growth allocation to 228,250 persons by 2031,

the market context is affected by the following zoning permissions in Halton Hills:

• Riocan / North American is currently zoned for about 340,000 square feet

including a 150,000 square foot Home Improvement Centre and about 190,000

square feet (rounded from 189,929 square feet) for other commercial space at a

site in the NE quadrant of James Snow Parkway and Highway 401, and

• Calloway REIT is currently zoned for 430,000 square feet of commercial space at

its site in the NE quadrant of Trafalgar Road and Highway 401.

Past announcements have variously described these projects as “upscale, high-end,

and designer name outlet shopping destinations” with regional trade areas based on

their characterization as off-price high-end fashion-focused outlet malls:

• The Riocan / North American concept has been described as a “factory outlet

mall” with “branded factory outlet retailers from the U.S. and Canada” offering

“leading designer and brand name manufacturers at a substantial savings”.

• The Calloway REIT concept has been described as an “upscale outlet mall”

offering “value-priced high-end goods”.

Both projects feature a fashion (designer-branded) component of unknown scale that

will help define their individual trade areas. The expectation is that these projects will

have broad, shallow, regional draws (or even supra-regional draws depending on the

strength of any fashion component).

This Study Update treats the Riocan / North American and Calloway REIT sites

respectively as being 100% and 35% effective in Milton’s historic trade area, and as

being predominantly non-department store NFSR space.

Another factor is the expected re-tenancy of the Zellers department store space in Milton

Mall with a replacement department store (Target). This change will require adjustments

to the department store sales at Milton Mall since Target typically outperforms Zellers on

a sales per square foot basis.

Summary of Macro-Level Findings: Attached Tables 1-20

The following provides a brief overview of the tables underlying the macro-level analysis

of Milton’s commercial land use needs.

Attached Table 1

presents population projections for Milton’s trade area without

(7)

6 expenditures for the FSR, NFSR, HI, personal service, restaurant, and L/B/W categories.

Attached Tables 3 – 8

multiply the populations in Milton’s Primary and Secondary

Zones from Attached Table 1 by their corresponding per capita expenditures from

Attached Table 2.

Department Store NFSR Demands:

Attached Table 9(a)

estimates current sales performance of existing department store

space at $346 per square foot on 296,000 square feet (i.e. Wal-Mart @ 186,000 square

feet at $433 per square foot plus Zellers at 110,000 square feet at $200 per square foot).

This table also calculates residual department store space demands which at a relatively

high performance level of $450 per square foot amount to:

• ±

2,000 square feet by 2016,

• ±

50,000 square feet by 2021, and

• ±

160,000 square feet by 2031.

Future local capture rates in this table are considered to be “healthy” rather than

“aggressive”.

Attached Table 9(b)

presents an aggregate department store impact analysis based on

the assumption that by 2014, the 110,000 square foot existing Zellers store at Milton Mall

will be re-tenanted by a higher performing department store (Target).

The assumption is also made that the future Target store and Wal-Mart will achieve

increasing sales performance levels (i.e. sales per square foot) until 2021, and that these

sales volumes will not increase over their 2021 values by 2031.

Adjusting for Target’s and Wal-Mart’s increased sales volumes yields marginal residuals

in 2014 and 2016.

By 2021, even with prospects for all department store space to increase their

performances thereafter on a sales per square foot basis, a residual of about 50,000 square

feet emerges. The residual increases three-fold by 2031 to about 160,000 square feet.

In summary, in the period leading up to 2021, the department store market can support:

• the re-tenanting of the 110,000 square foot Zellers at Milton Mall for replacement

promotional department store space at higher sales volumes, and

(8)

7 Later in the period 2021 to 2031, the department store market can support:

• the introduction of a full line department store in the order of 150,000 + square

feet at an undetermined location, but probably operating at lower sales per square

foot than achieved by the existing Wal-Mart or Target department store.

Non-Department Store NFSR Demands:

Attached Table 10

calculates residual non-department store space demands that amount

to about

1.0 million

square feet by 2021 and

1.6 million

square feet by 2031.

Against the demands forecast in Attached Table 10,

Attached Table 11

subtracts the

identified supply (non-department store NFSR space assumed on designated and zoned

sites) from the residual space demands. These are totaled in the upper box in Attached

Table 11 overleaf (

831,190

square feet by 2021 and 2031).

The market would be in relative equilibrium if all the assumed non-department store

NFSR space were to proceed by 2016. The probability of this outcome is subject to

natural phasing where the market dictates how much space enters the market.

By 2021, the market will have become moderately understored

($88.6 million divided by $350

per square foot = about 250,000 square feet

). By 2031, under storing will increase significantly

(

$269.6 million divided by $350 per square foot = about 770,000 square feet

).

If the assumed new non-department store NFSR space in designated / zoned sites

performs as estimated, the existing non-department store NFSR retailers would see their

sales increase by about one-third by 2021, and almost double by 2031 (per lower “box” in

Attached Table 11 overleaf).

By 2031, an average sales performance by existing non-department store NFSR retailers

in the order of $700 per square foot underscores the need for additional space over and

above the supply of space tested here.

HI Demands:

Attached Table 12

examines the residual opportunities for new HI space assuming that a

150,000 square foot HI tenancy at the Riocan / North American site in Halton Hills were

to proceed.

This test allocation at Riocan / North American does not diminish prospects for another

large scale facility in the period 2021-2031.

(9)

8 Attached Table 13

calculates the residual space demands for supermarket / grocery

space at about

285,000

square feet by 2021 and

505,000

square feet by 2031.

Attached Table 14

subtracts from these residual demands the designated supermarket /

grocery space to yield potential sales transfers.

The market would be very tight by 2016 if all designated sites were to proceed with their

proposed allocations. Impacts would theoretically reduce aggregate performances to

unsustainable levels below $400 per square foot ($388 per square foot per bottom “box”

second last line).

This would be sufficient to cause the delay of new entrants through natural phasing to

2021 when more realistic average sales levels of $438 per square foot are achieved. This

is still below industry averages and implies intense competition.

Note:

One mitigating aspect is that the 64,000 square foot allocation for the south

side of 3

rd

/Louis may not be totally drawn down because Fieldgate

contemplates only a 40,000 square foot supermarket compared to 64,000

square feet tested (a difference of 24,000 square feet).

In the period after 2021, the sales potential increases dramatically, with the result that

average sales approach highly productive levels of $590 per square foot by 2031.

The implication is that the market could absorb the designated and zoned supply of

supermarket / grocery space by 2021 but beyond 2021 would need additional space

beyond that tested in this analysis.

By comparison,

Attached Table 15

demonstrates that the specialty food sector is

performing at exceptionally high sales volumes per square foot, which implies that the

supermarket sector is underperforming relative to the specialty food sector.

Other Retail and Commercial Demands:

Attached Tables 15 - 18

examine the residual demands for specialty food, personal

service, restaurant, and L/B/W space.

Combined Demands:

The residual demands for retail and selected commercial space categories in

Attached

Tables 9 - 18

are totaled in

Attached Table 19

.

These are augmented by per capita space planning ratios applied only to the population

growth in the Primary Trade Area beyond the 2011 base year in the upper box in

(10)

9 The combined demands for retail and selected commercial space plus demands for Other

Service space, Financial Institution space and Local Office space are totaled and rounded

in the lower box of

Attached Table 19 overleaf

.

Commercial Land Needs:

Thereafter,

Attached Table 20

calculates the land needs out to 2031.

Demands less designated and zoned supply yield a land surplus of about 20 acres in 2014,

and about 35 acres by 2016, before a small requirement of about 30 acres emerges by

2021. Thereafter, out to 2031, demands would outstrip supply by about 175 acres.

This amount of land (i.e. a requirement for up to 175 acres over a 20 year projection

period) would not warrant additional designations at this time.

Localized Analysis of Boyne + MEV + Employment Node – Attached Tables A-E:

As a starting point for the analysis of MEV in its more localized market context,

Attached Tables A & B

reproduce the per capita space analysis employed in the Town’s

October 14, 2009 Update (Boyne Survey). Together, these tables provide the Boyne

Survey “Base Case”.

Attached Table A

found that the amount of warranted space in the Boyne Survey was

limited to

500,000

square feet (without a department store) based on an assumed ultimate

population of

50,000

persons in the Boyne Survey.

Attached Table B

found that the 500,000 square feet of warranted space might optimally

be distributed amongst six (6) LCA’s (total of 150,000 square feet) and two (2)

Secondary Mixed Use Nodes (total of 320,000 square feet) in the Boyne Survey.

In addition to those allocations, small amounts (a total of 30,000 square feet) were

recommended within the Milton Education Village Node and Employment Node (about

15,000 square feet each).

For comparative purposes,

Attached Tables C & D

provide a sensitivity testing of

Attached Tables A & B at an assumed population of

56,500

persons (50,000 persons in

the Boyne Survey

plus

6,500 persons in the MEV).

Attached Tables C & D have the same the inflow and outflow assumptions as Attached

Tables A & B, and are calculated in similar manner (with population being the only

variable).

(11)

10 Survey alone).

Attached Table D

distributes this additional square footage in parallel fashion as

Attached Table B.

The additional square footage (65,000 square feet) can be applied to the MEV and

Employment Node, but also to the Boyne’s two Secondary Mixed Use Nodes. Attached

Table D estimates that 25,000 square feet can be distributed to the MEV, another 25,000

square feet to the Employment Node, and the remaining 15,000 square feet to the most

proximate Secondary Mixed Use Nodes in the Boyne and Sherwood Surveys (i.e.

25,000 +

25,000 + 15,000 = 65,000

).

Note:

The sensitivity tests in my August 5, 2011 peer review of the Fieldgate study by

urbanMetrics inc. tested UMI’s findings that the original allocations of 500,000

square feet to be distributed across the Boyne Survey should be altered to reflect

recent changes in per capita space planning ratios (i.e. the amount of physical

space required on average to stock / service the needs of customers). This led to

the finding that a size range for the commercial allocations at Secondary Mixed

Use Nodes may be appropriate on a case-by-case basis. My calculations supported

size allocations ranging from current permissions at the Secondary Mixed Use

Nodes at 1

st

/Louis of 160,000 square feet to a maximum of 205,000 square feet,

the upper limit being on a site-specific basis by exception.

.

The estimated allocations of 25,000 square feet each at the MEV and Employment Node

in Attached Table D are supported by check calculations in Attached Table E.

Attached Table E

provides a more focused test based on an ultimate population of

6,500

persons in the MEV.

The warranted square footages amount to about

50,000

square feet.

This 50,000 square foot estimate of warranted space in Attached Table E is calculated by:

• making adjustments to eliminate categories of space that the MEV and

Employment Node would not

attract (e.g. department store and other general

merchandise space, home and auto supply space such as Canadian Tire, home

improvement and building supply space, apparel & accessories space, home

furnishing space, liquor/beer/wine space, medical/dental (health care) space, and

other services such as pet grooming).

• making adjustments for inflow and outflow that differ from those in Attached

Tables A-D because the MEV’s service area is smaller than and overlapped by the

(12)

11 As a result of these adjustments, the MEV and the Employment Node support different

amounts and types of retail commercial uses by category, although both the MEV and the

Employment Node are allocated 25,000 square feet each.

Summary Conclusions:

The foregoing macro-level analyses of warranted retail commercial space in Milton find

that the Town will face a commercial land requirement of about 175 acres in the period

2021 to 2031.

The more localized analyses of warranted retail commercial space within the Milton

Education Village lands support allocations of 25,000 square feet each in the MEV and

Employment Node for a combined total of 50,000 square feet. Allocations of 25,000

square feet each are equivalent to the allocations for the LCA’s (Local Commercial

Areas) in the Boyne Survey.

Respectfully submitted,

W. Scott Morgan, MCIP, RPP,

(13)

(14)

Census

Study Area

2001

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Town of Milton June 2011 Projections

Population Projection *

31,470

53,940

88,440

110,165

124,645

161,750

228,085

Cumulative Growth from 2011

21,725

36,205

73,310

139,645

Average Annual Growth from 2011 (%)

8.2%

8.3%

7.9%

Cumulative Growth from 2006

34,500

56,225

70,705

107,810

174,145

Average Annual Growth from 2006 (%)

12.8%

13.0%

13.1%

13.3%

12.9%

Primary Zone

Urban Milton

Population Projection

21,895

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Cumulative Growth from 2011

21,700

36,165

73,175

139,430

Average Annual Growth from 2011 (%)

8.7%

8.8%

8.4%

Secondary Zone

Rural Milton

7,585

5,570

5,585

5,610

5,625

5,720

5,800

Rural Halton Hills

1,970

2,100

North Burlington

3,295

3,500

Population Projection

12,850

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Cumulative Growth from 2011

25

40

135

215 Average Annual Growth from 2011 (%)

0.1%

Study Area

34,745

59,540

94,040

115,765

130,245

167,350

233,685

Cumulative Growth from 2011

21,725

36,205

73,310

139,645

Average Annual Growth from 2011 (%)

7.7%

7.8%

7.4%

*

Source: Best Planning Estimates (BPE) of Population, Occupied Dwelling Units, and Employment, 2011-2031, June 2011,

Regional Municipality of Halton, based on Traffic Zones and unadjusted for the Census undercount.

Compared to the Town's projections in the Town's June 9, 2006 market study, the Region's June 2011 projections are now

lagging by 13,210 in 2011 and by 17,350 in 2016, but by 2021 the projection is 8,750 higher and by 2031, 53,100 higher.

2011

2005

FSR

NFSR

HI

Per. Serv. Restaurant

L/B/W

Per Capita

Income

Per Cap

Study Area

Income

Index

Exp.

Ontario

$30,723

100.0 $2,187

$4,823

$720

$253

$812

$548

Town of Milton

$34,727

113.0 $2,224

$5,194

$775

$270

$869

$594

Primary Zone

$32,644

106.3 $2,205

$5,001

$747

$261

$839

$570

Secondary Zone

$45,979

149.7 $2,328

$6,236

$931

$316

$1,030

$725

Income / Expenditure regression equations for FSR + NFSR + HI + Personal Service + Restaurant + L/B/W (Liquor/Beer/ Wine) from Appendix A-1.

2011 Ontario per capita FSR + NFSR + HI expenditures derived from January 2012 Ontario Retail Trade Cat. #63-005.

2011 Ontario per capita Personal Service expenditure updates the 2003 estimate of $240 per capita by 5.5% real + inflationary growth from 2004 to 2011.

2011 Ontario per capita Restaurant expenditure updates the 2003 estimate of $725 per capita by 12.0% real and inflationary growth from 2004 to 2011.

2011 Ontario per capita Liquor/Beer/Wine (L/B/W) expenditure ($544) updates 2003 estimate of $499 per capita by 9.0% real and inflationary growth

from 2004 to 2011 = superseded by 65-003 Ontario January 2012 @ $548 per capita.

STUDY AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS UNADJUSTED FOR CENSUS UNDERCOUNT

TABLE 2

(15)

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$5,001

$5,191

$5,321

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$414.4

$542.7

$633.4

$830.3

$1,182.9

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$6,236

$6,473

$6,636

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$69.7

$72.6

$74.5

$75.1

$75.6

Study Area

na

$484.1

$615.3

$707.8

$905.4

$1,258.5

* Relative to an estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita NFSR (GAFO + DRUG) expenditure of $4,823.

Assume real growth @ 1.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$747

$775

$794

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$61.9

$81.0

$94.5

$124.0

$176.6

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$931

$966

$991

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$10.4

$10.8

$11.1

$11.2

$11.3

Study Area

na

$72.3

$91.9

$105.7

$135.2

$187.9

* Relative to an estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita Home Improvement (HI) expenditure of $720.

Assume real growth @ 1.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

STUDY AREA NFSR ("GAFO + DRUG") EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

TABLE 4

(16)

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$2,205

$2,221

$2,232

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$182.7

$232.3

$265.7

$348.3

$496.2

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$2,328

$2,346

$2,357

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$26.0

$26.3

$26.5

$26.7

$26.9

Study Area

NA

$208.7

$258.5

$292.2

$375.0

$523.1

* Relative to estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita FSR expenditure of $2,187.

Assume real growth @ 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$261

$263

$264

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$21.6

$27.5

$31.5

$41.3

$58.8

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$316

$318

$320

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$3.5

$3.6

Study Area

NA

$25.2

$31.1

$35.1

$44.9

$62.4

* Relative to an estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita Personal Service expenditure of $253.

Assume real growth @ 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

STUDY AREA FSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

TABLE 6

(17)

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$839

$846

$850

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$69.5

$88.4

$101.2

$132.6

$188.9

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$1,030

$1,037

$1,043

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$11.5

$11.6

$11.7

$11.8

$11.9

Study Area

NA

$81.1

$100.1

$112.9

$144.4

$200.8

* Relative to an estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita Restaurant expenditure of $812.

Assume real growth @ 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

Census

Study Area

2006

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

Population

48,370

82,855

104,555

119,020

156,030

222,285

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

$570

$575

$577

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$47.2

$60.1

$68.7

$90.1

$128.4

Secondary Zone

Population

11,170

11,185

11,210

11,225

11,320

11,400

Per Capita Expenditure ($) *

na

725 $730

$734

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

na

$8.1

$8.2

$8.3

$8.4

Study Area

na

$55.4

$68.3

$77.0

$98.4

$136.7

* Relative to an estimated 2011 Ontario average per capita Liquor/Beer/Wine expenditure of $548.

Assume real growth @ 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2016.

STUDY AREA RESTAURANT EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

TABLE 8

(18)

Study Area

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

(Urban Milton)

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$414.4

$542.7

$633.4

$830.3

$1,182.9

Dep't Store NFSR Share

(formerly 30.4% in June 9, 2006)

@

20.0%

(vs Prov. Av. @ 17.0%)

$82.9

@

20.0%

$108.5

$126.7

$166.1

$236.6

Local Capture

(formerly 63.5% in June 9, 2006)

@

65.0%

*

$53.9

@

70.0%

$76.0

$88.7

$116.2

$165.6

Secondary Zone

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$69.7

$72.6

$74.5

$75.1

$75.6

Dep't Store NFSR Share

(formerly 24.6% in June 9, 2006)

@

20.0%

(vs Prov. Av. @ 17.0%)

$13.9

@

20.0%

$14.5

$14.9

$15.0

$15.1

Local Capture

(formerly 38.9% in June 9, 2006)

@

40.0%

*

$5.6

@

40.0%

$5.8

$6.0

$6.1

Milton Local Share Without Inflow

$59.4

$81.8

$94.6

$122.3

$171.7

Plus Inflow

(formerly 42.5% in June 9, 2006)

@

42.0%

**

$43.0

@

40.0% ***

42.0%

$54.5

$63.1

40.0%

34.0%

26.9%

Total Potential Milton Local Capture ($ m's)

$102.5

$136.3

$157.7

$185.3

$234.7

Less Existing Competition (

base year @ 296,002 sf total

)

Expanded Zellers @

109,945

sf GLA

(up from 74,088 sf in 2001)

@

$200 /sf GLA

$22.0

TARGET @

109,945

sf GLA

@

$460 /sf GLA

$50.6

@

$530 /sf GLA

$58.3

@

$550 /sf GLA

$60.5

Expanded Wal-Mart @

186,057

sf GLA ****

(

up from 134,226 sf in 2006

)

@

$433 /sf GLA

$80.5

$460

/sf GLA

$85.6

@

$530

/sf GLA

$98.7

@

$550

/sf GLA

$102.3

Residual Sales Demand Less Wal-Mart and Zellers ($ m's)

$0.0

$0.1

$0.7

$22.5

$71.9

Warranted sf GLA:

@

$400 per sf GLA

0

340 1,857

56,313

179,818

@

$450 per sf GLA

0

302 1,650

50,056

159,838

@

$500 per sf GLA

0

272 1,485

45,050

143,854

@

$550 per sf GLA

0

247 1,350

40,955

130,777

* Adjusted/rounded from consumer telephone survey in the Town's June 9, 2006 market study.

** Estimated from licence plate surveys.

*** Assume inflow @ 40.0% in 2014 and 2016 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

**** Includes 4,034 sf outdoor garden centre plus 182,023 enclosed space.

(19)

Study Area

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Total Potential Milton Local Capture ($ m's)

$102.5

$136.3

$157.7

$185.3

$234.7

Less Zellers prior to de-commissioning

Zellers (Milton Mall) @ 110,000 sf (rounded)

@

$200 /sf

$22.0

Total Potential Milton Local Capture Less Zellers ($ m's)

$80.5

Less Zellers Conversion to TARGET

TARGET (Milton Mall) @ 110,000 sf (rounded)

@

$460 /sf

$50.6

@

$530 /sf

$58.3

@

$560 /sf

$60.5

Less Wal-Mart

@ 186,000 sf (rounded)

@

$433 /sf

$80.5

@

$460 /sf

$85.6

@

$530 /sf

$98.7

@

$560 /sf

$102.3

Total Remaining Residual Sales Demand ($ m's)

$0.0

$0.1

$0.7

$22.5

$71.9

Adjusted Warranted sf GLA:

@

$400 per sf GLA

0

340 1,857

56,313

179,818

@

$450 per sf GLA

0

302 1,650

50,056

159,838

@

$500 per sf GLA

0

272 1,485

45,050

143,854

@

$550 per sf GLA

0

247 1,350

40,955

130,777

Projected Wal-Mart Sales with sales gains ($ m's)

$80.5

$85.6

$98.7

$102.3

Wal-Mart Sales Per Square Foot ($/sf)

$433

$460

$530

$550

Potential Impact on Wal-Mart (%)

6.3%

22.6%

27.1%

(20)

Study Area

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

(Urban Milton)

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$414.4

$542.7

$633.4

$830.3

$1,182.9

Non-Dep't Store NFSR Share

(formerly 69.6% in June 9, 2006)

@

80.0%

$331.5

@

80.0%

$434.2

$506.7

$664.2

$946.3

Local Capture

(formerly 60.2% in June 9, 2006)

@

60.0%

*

$198.9

@

72.5%

$314.8

$367.3

$481.6

@

70.0%

$662.4

Secondary Zone

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$69.7

$72.6

$74.5

$75.1

$75.6

Non-Dep't Store NFSR Share

(formerly 75.4% in June 9, 2006)

@

80.0%

$55.8

@

80.0%

$58.0

$59.6

$60.1

$60.5

Local Capture

(formerly 36.1% in June 9, 2006)

@

36.0%

*

$20.1

@

40.0%

$23.2

$23.8

$24.0

$24.2

Milton Local Share Without Inflow

$219.0

$338.0

$391.2

$505.6

$686.6

Plus Inflow

(formerly 20.0% in June 9, 2006)

@

17.5%

**

$46.4

@

20.0%

***

$84.5

$97.8

20.0%

16.2%

12.5%

Total Potential Milton Local Capture

$265.4

$422.5

$489.0

$603.4

$784.4

Less Existing Competition

(

formerly 728,260 sf in Oct. 14/09

) @

759,636

sf GLA

****

(formerly 381,120 sf in June 9 2006)

@

$350

/sf GLA

$265.4

Residual Sales Demand

$0.0

$157.1

$223.5

$338.0

$519.0

Warranted sf GLA:

@

$300 per sf GLA

0 523,579

745,160

1,126,593

1,729,934

@

$325 per sf GLA

0 483,304

687,840

1,039,932

1,596,862

@

$350 per sf GLA

0 448,782

638,709

965,651

1,482,801

*

Adjusted/rounded from consumer telephone survey in the Town's June 9, 2006 market study.

**

Estimated from licence plate surveys of anchor tenants (Loblaws + Wal-Mart + Canadian Tire) and adjusted for

inventory changes.

***

Assume inflow @ 20.0% in 2014 and 2016 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

****

See Appendix B for April 2012 Update of June 2011 Updated Inventory.

(21)

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

RESIDUAL SALES DEMAND

$0.0

$157.1

$223.5

$338.0

$519.0

RESIDUAL SPACE DEMANDS (sf GLA):

@

$300 per sf GLA

0 523,579

745,160

1,126,593

1,729,934

@

$325 per sf GLA

0 483,304

687,840

1,039,932

1,596,862

@

$350 per sf GLA

0 448,782

638,709

965,651

1,482,801

POTENTIAL SUPPLY

2014

2016

2021

2031

Designated Non-Dep't Store NFSR Space (Sq. Ft.):

Milton Expanded CBD (

Consolidated Blocks F & G

)

0 125,000

125,000

Milton Trade Park Conversion

0 33,300

33,300

Business Park

(NE James Snow/Main St. E., C6 Special Zone - Durante

) = Built

0

0 Subtotal

0 158,300

158,300

Secondary Mixed Use Nodes:

Derry Rd. & Reg'l Rd. 25/Ontario St. (

expansion area newly built & occupied by services

)

0

0 First Capital (

NW Bronte Street & Derry Road

) = now built

0

0 Sherwood Survey:

NE Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Fieldgate 8.6 acres assume 70% of CRU =NFSR

)

21,300

NW Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Manaman 28.4 acres assume 60% of CRU =NFSR

)

38,250

NW Louis St. Laurent & Kennedy Circle

(@ 83,660 sf @ 75% NFSR)

0 25,870

25,870

Subtotal

59,550

85,420

Boyne Survey:

South Side Louis St. Laurent & Thompson

Rd. (@ 160,000 sf @ 40% NFSR)

0 64,000

64,000

SW Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Fieldgate 150,000 sf @ 50% of CRU =NFSR)

0 45,000

45,000

Subtotal

0 109,000

109,000

Subtotal Secondary Mixed Use Nodes

59,550

194,420

Local Commercial Areas (LCA's)

Bristol Survey:

4 LCA's built.

Not Built = LCA (w/s

James Snow Pkwy. betw. Derry & CPR @ 25,000 sf @ 40% NFSR

)

10,000

Sherwood Survey:

Built = Mattamy-Biason Expanded LCA (

SW Derry & Scott Blvd.

)

0

0 Built = Fieldgate LCA

(Sherwood C3 Zone, N. Side Derry, W. of Scott Blvd.)

0

0 Not Built = Tsampiris LCA @ 25,000 sf (

SW Derry & Santa Maria @ 40% NFSR

):

10,000

Not Built = Milton Hts.

(3rd Side Rd. & proposed Tremaine Rd. @ 25,000 sf @ 40% NFSR)

0

0 10,000

10,000

Not Built = Derry Rd. & Tremaine LCA @ 25,000 sf @ 40% NFSR):

0 10,000

10,000

Subtotal

10,000

20,000

30,000

Boyne Survey:

Boyne Survey LCA's ( 6 LCA's @ 25,000 sf @ 40% NFSR - phased)

0 15,000

60,000

Boyne Survey Education Village + Employment Node (@ 5,000 sf NFSR)

0 15,000

15,000

Subtotal

0 30,000

75,000

Subtotal Local Commercial Areas

20,000

60,000

115,000

Regional & Large Format Nodes in Milton / adjoining Halton Hills:

First Gulf additional 12 acres (@ 40,000 sf remaining capacity @ 80% NFSR)

32,000

Riocan / North American

(Halton Hills - NE James Snow / 401)

(

rounded from 189,929 sf)

190,000

Subtotal Milton / Adjoining Halton Hills

222,000

STUDY AREA NON-DEPARTMENT STORE NFSR COMBINED IMPACTS

RESIDUAL SPACE DEMANDS LESS ZONED SUPPLY

RESIDUAL SALES & SPACE DEMANDS:

(22)

Zoned Large Format Regional Facility in Halton Hills:

Calloway REIT @ 430,000

sf Phased (NE Trafalgar/401)

@ 94% Non-Dep't Store NFSR @ 35% of sales from Milton residents

70,735

106,100

141,470

50%

75%

100%

Total Designated / Zoned Non-Dep't. Store NFSR Space (Sq. Ft.):

372,285

740,820

831,190

2014

2016

2021

2031

RESIDUAL SALES DEMAND

$157.1

$223.5

$338.0

$519.0

Less Designated / Zoned Non-Dep't Store NFSR Sales ($ m's)

@

$300 per square foot (

"normalized"

)

@

372,285 square feet

$111.7

@

740,820 square feet

$222.2

@

831,190 square feet

$249.4

Potential Sales Transfer / Increment (Shortfall+ / Surplus -) ($ m's)

$45.4

$1.3

$88.6

$269.6

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Existing Non-Dep't Store NFSR Sales ($ m's)

@

$350 per square foot

(in 2011

)

@

759,636 square feet

$265.5

$310.9

$266.8

$354.1

$535.1

Sales per Sq. Ft. ($)

$350

$409

$351

$466

$704

Sales per Sq. Ft. (%)

17.1%

0.5%

33.4%

101.6%

Note:

The supply allocations do not include the "McKinley" site in the northwest quadrant of Highway 401 and

Regional Road No. 25 -- a site that could accommodate 400,000 to 500,000 square feet of power centre uses

on designated employment lands (i.e. considered now only as a potential future reserve).

RESIDUAL SALES DEMANDS LESS ZONED SUPPLY:

AGGREGATE IMPACT ON EXISTING NON-DEPARTMENT STORE NFSR SALES

STUDY AREA NON-DEPARTMENT STORE NFSR COMBINED IMPACTS

(23)

Study Area

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

(Urban Milton)

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$61.9

$81.0

$94.5

$124.0

$176.6

Local Capture

(formerly 24.9% in June 9, 2006)

@

80.0%

*

$49.5

@

85.0%

$68.9

$80.4

$105.4

$150.1

Secondary Zone

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$10.4

$10.8

$11.1

$11.2

$11.3

Local Capture

(formerly 4.0% in June 9, 2006)

@

55.0%

*

$5.7

@

57.5%

$6.2

$6.4

$6.5

Milton Local Share Without Inflow

$55.2

$75.1

$86.8

$111.8

$156.6

Plus Inflow

(formerly 40.0% in June 9, 2006)

@

20.0%

**

$13.8

@

32.5% ***

$36.2

$41.8

32.5%

27.2%

21.1%

Total Potential Milton Local Capture

$69.0

$111.3

$128.5

$153.6

$198.4

Less Existing Competition

(formerly 26,200 sf in June 9, 2006)

@

194,173 sf GLA

****

@

$355 /sf GLA

$69.0

@

$400 /sf GLA

$77.7

Less Riocan / North American (NE James Snow / 401)

@

150,000 sf GLA

****

@

$0 /sf GLA

$0.0

@

$350 /sf GLA

$52.5

Residual Sales Demand

$0.0

($18.9)

($1.6)

$23.4

$68.2

Warranted sf GLA:

@

$350 per sf GLA

0 -54,046

-4,670

66,887

194,841

@

$400 per sf GLA

0 -47,290

-4,086

58,526

170,485

@

$450 per sf GLA

0 -42,035

-3,632

52,023

151,543

* From previous consumer telephone surveys; base year adjustments to account for 2007 market entry of Riocan Home Depot.

** Estimated from licence plate surveys of anchor tenants (Loblaws, Wal-Mart and Canadian Tire).

*** Assume inflow @ 32.5% in 2014 and 2016 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

****

See Appendix B for April 2012 Update of June 2011 Updated Inventory.

(24)

Study Area

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Primary Zone

(Urban Milton)

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$182.7

$232.3

$265.7

$348.3

$496.2

Supermarket/Grocery Share

(formerly 72.0% in June 9, 2006)

@

75.0%

$137.0

@

82.5%

$191.6

$219.2

$287.4

$409.4

Local Capture

(formerly 81.2% in June 9, 2006)

@

82.5%

*

$113.0

@

90.0%

$172.4

$197.3

$258.6

$368.5

Secondary Zone

Expenditure Potential ($ m's)

$26.0

$26.3

$26.5

$26.7

$26.9

Supermarket/Grocery Share

(formerly 72.0% in June 9, 2006)

@

75.0%

$19.5

@

82.5%

$21.7

$21.8

$22.0

$22.2

Local Capture

(formerly 45.2% in June 9, 2006)

@

45.0%

*

$8.8

@

50.0%

$10.8

$10.9

$11.0

$11.1

Milton Local Share Without Inflow

$121.8

$183.3

$208.2

$269.6

$379.5

Plus Inflow

(

formerly 20.0% in June 9, 2006

) @

20.0%

**

$30.5

@

18.5% ***

$41.6

$47.3

18.5%

14.9%

11.1%

Total Potential Milton Local Capture

$152.3

$224.9

$255.5

$316.9

$426.8

Less Existing Competition: ****

(

vs. 144,889 sf - June 9 06 Study

)

@

282,590 sf GLA ****

@

$539 /sf GLA

$152.3

With Riocan Longos @ 44,260 sf

@ 326,850 sf GLA ****

@

$534 /sf GLA

$174.4

Residual Sales Demand Post-Longos

$0.0

$50.5

$81.1

$142.5

$252.4

Warranted sf GLA:

@

$450 per sf GLA

0

0 112,215

180,135

316,670

560,899

@

$500 per sf GLA

0

0 100,994

162,122

285,003

504,809

@

$550 per sf GLA

0

0 91,813

147,383

259,094

458,917

*

Adjusted/rounded from consumer telephone survey in the Town's June 9, 2006 market study.

** Estimated from licence plate surveys of anchor tenants (Loblaws, Wal-Mart and Canadian Tire).

*** Assume inflow @ 18.5% in 2014 and 2016 and declining in percentage terms thereafter (

up from 15% in June 9, 2006 study

).

****

See Appendix B for April 2012 Update of June 2011 Updated Inventory.

(25)

2014

2016

2021

2031

Supermarket/Grocery Space (

Sq. Ft.

) on Designated Lands:

Secondary Mixed Use Nodes:

Derry Rd. & Reg'l Rd. 25/Ontario St. (

expansion area newly built & occupied by services

)

0

0 First Capital (

NW Bronte Street & Derry Road

) = now built without supermarket

0

0 Sherwood & Bristol Surveys:

NE Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Fieldgate 8.6 acres Sobeys

)

53,145

NW Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Manaman 28.4 acres Loblaws

)

79,350

NW Louis St. Laurent & Kennedy Circle

(@ 40,200 sf Freshco)

0 40,200

40,200

Subtotal

132,495

172,695

Boyne Survey:

South Side Louis St. Laurent & Thompson

Rd. (@ 160,000 sf @ 40% Supermarket)

64,000

SW Bronte St. & Louis St. Laurent (

Fieldgate 150,000 sf @ 40% Supermarket)

60,000

Subtotal

0 124,000

124,000

Subtotal Supermarkets

132,495

296,695

LCA's:

Bristol Survey = 4 LCA's built

Not Built = LCA (w/s

James Snow Pkwy. betw. Derry & CPR @ 25,000 sf @ 40% Grocery

)

10,000

Sherwood Survey:

Built = Mattamy-Biason Expanded LCA (

SW Derry & Scott Blvd.

)

0

0 Built = Fieldgate LCA

(Sherwood C3 Zone, N. Side Derry, W. of Scott Blvd.)

0

0 Not Built = Tsampiris LCA @ 25,000 sf (

SW Derry & Santa Maria @ 40% Grocery

):

10,000

Not Built = Milton Hts.

(3rd Side Rd. & proposed Tremaine Rd. @ 25,000 sf @ 40% Grocery)

10,000

Not Built = Derry Rd. & Tremaine LCA @ 25,000 sf @ 40% Grocery):

10,000

Boyne Survey:

Boyne Survey LCA's (

6 LCA's @ 25,000 sf @ 40% Grocery - phased

)

15,000

60,000

Boyne Survey Education Village + Employment Node (

@ 30,000 sf total with no FSR

)

0

0 Subtotal Grocery Stores

20,000

35,000

100,000

Longo's - Riocan = 2011 opening as factored into Table 13.

na

Subtotal Designated

152,495

331,695

396,695

Residual Less Designated Supply (

Supply Shortfall + / Supply Surplus -

)

-51,501

-169,573

-111,692

108,114

Less Designated Supermarket/Grocery Sales ($ m's)

@

$500 per square foot

@

152,495 square feet in 2014

$76.2

@

331,695 square feet in 2016 +

$165.8

@

396,695 square feet in 2021 +

$198.3

Potential Sales Transfer / Increment (

Shortfall+ / Surplus -

) ($ m's)

($25.8)

($84.8)

($55.8)

$54.1

2011

2014

2016

2021

2031

Total Potential Milton Local Capture

$152.3

$224.9

$255.5

$316.9

$426.8

Existing Supermarket/Grocery Space (

Sq. Ft.

)

282,590

326,850

Total Designated Supermarket/Grocery Space (

Sq. Ft.

):

0 152,495

331,695

396,695

Total Space (

Sq. Ft

.)

282,590

479,345

658,545

723,545

Average Sales Per Square Foot ($)

$539

$469

$388

$438

$590

Sales per Sq. Ft. (%)

-12.9%

-28.0%

-18.7%

9.5%

STUDY AREA SUPERMARKET COMBINED IMPACTS

RESIDUAL SPACE DEMANDS LESS: