Aon Benfield
Analytics | Market Analysis
The Aon Benfield
Aggregate
Table of Contents
Global Reinsurer Capital ... 3
Executive Summary ... 4 ABA Capital ... 5 Capital Development ... 5 Capital Management ... 6 Premium Income ... 8 Earnings ... 12 Underwriting Performance ... 13 Investment Results ... 15 Net Income ... 16 Return on Equity ... 17
ABA Business Model Evolution ... 19
Who Are The New Investors? ... 19
How Is New Money Being Deployed? ... 19
Implications for ‘Traditional’ Reinsurers ... 19
How Are The ABA Companies Responding? ... 19
Mergers & Acquisitions ... 21
ABA Valuation ... 22
Financial Strength Ratings ... 23
Global Reinsurer Capital
Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital totaled USD575 billion at the end of
2014, an increase of 6% over the course of the year. This calculation is a broad measure
of capital available for insurers to trade risk with and includes both traditional and
alternative forms of reinsurer capital.
Exhibit 1: Global Reinsurer Capital
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Analytics
Traditional capital rose by 4% to USD511 billion. Major insurers and reinsurers generally maintained their solid operating performance during 2014, aided by below average insured catastrophe losses, economic recovery in the United States, exposure growth in emerging markets and relatively stable capital market conditions. Retained earnings were bolstered by unrealized gains on bond portfolios, driven in particular by lower yields in the eurozone, providing a boost to reported capital positions. Alternative capital continued its strong growth, rising by 28% to USD64 billion in 2014. This was reflected in record levels of catastrophe bond issuance, expansion of fully collateralized placements, the establishment of new sidecar vehicles and the exploration of alternative business models by hedge fund managers.
Evolution of the ABA
Aon Benfield Aggregate (ABA) reports are produced on a half-yearly basis and cover the reported results of 31 major reinsurers worldwide, with the aim of identifying current trends in the P&C reinsurance marketplace. The study comprises 29 publicly-listed holding companies (‘the listed ABA’) and two US-domiciled subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway, namely National Indemnity Company (NICO) and General Reinsurance Corporation (Gen Re).
NICO’s 2014 results were significanty impacted by intra-group transactions involving GEICO. To provide a more meaningful picture of the sector’s underlying performance, many of the charts and ratios used in this report focus on the listed ABA.
Platinum was acquired by RenaissanceRe effective March 2, 2015 and therefore will not feature in future editions. 17 22 19 22 24 28 39 50 64 368 388 321 378 447 428 466 490 511 6% -17% 18% 18% -3% 11% 7% 6% 385 410 340 400 470 455 505 540 575 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns ) Traditional Capital Alternative Capital Global Reinsurer Capital
Executive Summary
Reinsurance industry capital continues to build, with material alternative capital growth.Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital rose by 6% to USD575 billion in 2014, including a 28% increase in alternative capital to USD64 billion.
The shareholders' funds of the 31 ABA companies rose by 2% to USD346 billion, driven by net income of USD38.5 billion and unrealized gains of USD8.1 billion.
Alternative capital has driven catastrophe risk transfer costs down.
Reinsurers are incorporating material alternative capital (through ILS, sidecars, and asset management mandates) to lower their cost of underwriting capital.
Dividends and share buybacks rose by 18% to USD18.3 billion in 2014. This was equivalent to 8.0% of opening capital, up from 6.4% in 2013.
Premium growth is being achieved, despite difficult market conditions.
Property and casualty (P&C) premiums written by the 29 listed ABA companies rose by 2% to USD198 billion in 2014. Reinsurance volume was unchanged at USD89 billion, despite the industry’s pricing pressure.
Underwriting performance remains strong, given low global catastrophe losses.
The combined ratio of the listed ABA improved by 0.3 percentage points to 89.9% in 2014. P&C underwriting profit rose by 6% to USD16.8 billion.
The attritional loss and expense ratios were impacted by weakening pricing and increased volumes of longer tail proportional business.
Investment returns have been resilient, despite the impact of low interest rates.
The listed ABA reported a 2% increase in ordinary investment income to USD26.5 billion in 2014, driven by underlying asset growth and portfolio repositioning.
Headline return on equity has been stable at around 11% for the last three years.
Across the listed ABA, net income attributable to common shareholders rose by 4% to USD25.5 billion in 2014. Sector consolidation is underway as companies look to achieve the advantages of scale and diversification.
Three recently announced M&A transactions between ABA companies will reduce the number of entities in the study.
ABA Capital
The reported shareholders’ funds of the 31 ABA companies stood at USD346 billion at
December 31, 2014, an increase of 2% or USD9 billion over the course of the year. The
total for the listed ABA was USD240 billion, an increase of 5% or USD11 billion.
Exhibit 2: ABA Shareholders’ Funds
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Capital Development
The drivers of ABA capital growth were net income of USD38.5 billion and unrealized investment gains of USD8.1 billion. These positive factors were partly offset by dividends of USD13.8 billion, share buybacks of USD8.5 billion, foreign exchange losses of USD8.2 billion and a net reduction in issued capital of USD5.2 billion. The latter was driven by a USD7.1 billion transfer of subsidiary interests from NICO to Berkshire Hathaway.
Exhibit 3: ABA Shareholders’ Funds Development
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
157 180 151 193 200 204 227 229 240 44 45 37 48 78 79 90 109 106 12% -17% 29% 15% 2% 12% 6% 2% 201 226 187 242 278 283 317 337 346 0 100 200 300 400 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns )
NICO & Gen Re Listed ABA Total ABA
337.4 -5.2 38.5 -8.2 8.1 -8.5 -13.8 -2.8 345.5 300 325 350 375 FY 2013 SHF Additional capital Net income FX Investment gains Share buybacks Dividends Other FY 2014 SHF U SD ( b illio ns )
Between them, NICO and Gen Re reported USD106 billion of shareholders’ funds at December 31, 2014, representing 31% of the ABA total. On a combined basis, Munich Re, Swiss Re and ACE contributed USD102 billion or 30%. More than half of the ABA companies reported shareholders’ funds in excess of USD5 billion, while five remained below USD2 billion.
Exhibit 4: Shareholders’ Funds at December 31, 2014
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
All but five ABA companies reported capital growth in 2014, mainly driven by retained earnings. Unrealized gains taken directly to equity impacted outcomes at Hannover Re (USD0.8 billion), Mapfre (USD0.9 billion), Munich Re (USD3.5 billion), Swiss Re (USD3.8 billion) and XL (USD1.2 billion). NICO’s capital fell by 3% to USD94 billion, driven by a USD7.1 billion upstreaming of subsidiary interests and USD3.9 billion of unrealized losses on equities. Reductions in shareholders’ funds at Lancashire, Validus, RenaissanceRe and Platinum were driven by active capital management. Exhibit 5: Growth in Shareholders’ Funds
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Capital Management
Surplus equity is being returned to investors in growing amounts, partly reflecting increased interaction with third party capital structures. Capital repatriation by the listed ABA rose by 28% to USD18.3 billion in 2014. This was equivalent to 8.0% of opening shareholders’ funds, up from 6.4% in the prior year period. Public dividends rose by 6% to USD9.9 billion, while share buybacks climbed by 68% to USD8.5 billion. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 U SD ( b illio ns ) -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Exhibit 6: Dividends & Share Buybacks as a Percentage of Opening Capital
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
The first few months of 2015 have provided further evidence of the quickening pace of capital repatriation. Most ABA companies increased their final dividends alongside the release of their full-year results. In addition, Amlin, Beazley, Catlin, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Platinum and Swiss Re announced special dividends. New share buyback authorizations were announced at ACE (USD1.5 billion), Aspen (USD0.5 billion), Munich Re (EUR1.5 billion), Swiss Re (CHF1.0 billion) and Validus (USD0.75 billion). 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Dividends Share buybacks
Premium Income
Total premiums written by the ABA rose by 9% to USD311 billion in 2014. The portion
related to P&C business rose by 12% to USD226 billion, but was up by only 2% to
USD198 billion excluding NICO and Gen Re.
Exhibit 7: ABA Total Premiums Written
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Gross P&C premiums written by NICO more than tripled to USD27.0 billion in 2014, driven by a new 50% intra-group quota share reinsurance agreement with GEICO Group. Non-affiliated premiums at NICO rose by 8% to USD4.6 billion. The listed ABA reported 3% growth in P&C insurance premiums to USD109 billion in 2014, while P&C reinsurance premiums were flat at USD89 billion. Exhibit 8 shows total P&C volumes for years prior to 2013, as consistent segmental splits are not available. Exhibit 8: ABA P&C Gross Premiums Written
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
142 149 158 156 159 181 192 202 226 50 58 62 67 70 80 82 84 84 9% 6% 1% 3% 14% 5% 4% 9% 191 207 221 222 229 261 274 285 311 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns )
Other GPW P&C GPW Total GPW
89 89 106 109 135 143 151 149 153 174 183 7 6 7 7 6 8 9 7 28 142 149 158 156 159 181 192 202 226 0 50 100 150 200 250 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns )
Strong P&C premium growth of 34% at Lancashire and 23% at Markel was driven by the acquisitions of Cathedral and Alterra, effective November 7, 2013 and May 1, 2013 respectively. Arch reported an increase of 15%, driven by acquisitions in the mortage segment and USD80 million of non-affiliated business written by Watford Re (which is fully consolidated).
At the other end of the spectrum, Platinum’s P&C book showed a broad-based contraction of 12%, while QBE reported a reduction of 6% on a constant currency basis, mainly due to reduced volumes in North America and Europe.
Exhibit 9: Growth in P&C Gross Premiums Written
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) Exhibit 10 shows the split of P&C premiums between primary insurance and assumed reinsurance across all of the ABA companies in 2014, based on our best interpretation of sometimes inconsistent company disclosure.
Exhibit 10: 2014 P&C Segmental Splits
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *Of which only USD4.6 billion was non-affiliated ** P&C insurance relates to Risk Solutions (ERGO excluded) -20% 20% 60% 100% 140% 180% 220% 260% 300% 340% 380% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 U SD ( b illio ns ) P&C Insurance P&C Reinsurance
Exhibit 11 shows the growth of the primary insurance and assumed reinsurance books of the ABA companies in 2014, based on our best interpretation of sometimes inconsistent company disclosure. Absent acquisition effects at Markel and Lancashire, the most significant growth in reinsurance was seen at Everest Re (mainly property treaty and Mt Logan Re), Amlin (Zurich office and multi-year contracts) and Catlin (international diversification and multi-year contracts).
Hiscox, Beazley and Validus reported reductions of 14%, 9% and 8% in their reinsurance books, driven predominantly by lower volumes of property catastrophe business.
Exhibit 11: 2014 P&C Segmental Growth
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis * P&C insurance relates to Risk Solutions (ERGO excluded) Total P&C premiums ceded to third parties by the listed ABA rose by 5% to USD29.2 billion in 2014, a cession ratio of 14.7% (2013: 14.3%). Retained premiums rose by 1% to USD169 billion. Reinsurance utilisation rose most significantly at Endurance, RenaissanceRe, XL, Everest Re and Hiscox. The biggest reductions were at Amlin, Swiss Re, Montpelier Re, Validus and ACE.
Exhibit 12: Reinsurance Cession Ratios
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Reinsurance GPW Insurance GPW -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% FY 2014 FY 2013
Total P&C net premiums earned by the ABA rose by 13% to USD190 billion in 2014. The listed ABA reported a 2% increase to USD166 billion, with the five largest constituents contributing USD87.6 billion, or 53% of the total.
Exhibit 13: 2014 P&C Net Premiums Earned
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) Exhibit 14 shows the year-on-year movements in P&C net premiums earned across the ABA in 2014. The strong growth at Lancashire, Markel and Arch was influenced by acquisitions, while the 11% increase at Aspen was driven by the continued build-out of the group’s US insurance operations. Seven companies reported reduced volumes on this basis.
Exhibit 14: Growth in P&C Net Premiums Earned
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 0 5 10 15 20 25 U SD ( b illio ns ) 170% 180% 190% 200% 210% 220% 230% 240% 250% 260% 270% 280% 290% 300% 310% -10%-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Earnings
Profitability in 2014 was in line with the two prior years, but earnings are becoming
increasingly reliant on unsustainable factors such as benign catastrophe experience,
material reserve releases and capital gains. Increasing competition and low interest
rates continue to pressure underlying returns on equity.
Exhibit 15: Listed ABA Pre-Tax Profit
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
The listed ABA reported pre-tax profit of USD31.2 billion in 2014, an increase of 11% relative to the prior year. P&C underwriting profit rose by 6% to USD16.8 billion, with favourable prior year reserve development of USD8.0 billion contributing 48% of the total. Ordinary investment income rose by 2% to USD26.5 billion, driven by underlying asset growth and portfolio repositioning. Capital gains rose by 41% to USD7.1 billion, as declining interest rates impacted bond values.
Exhibit 16 shows the distribution of reported pre-tax profits across the 31 ABA companies. NICO’s result was heavily influenced by a USD7.1 billion intra-group dividend from GEICO.
Exhibit 16: 2014 Pre-Tax Results
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
31.3 35.4 11.6 29.2 25.8 9.3 29.2 28.0 31.2 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns )
Other Pure life technical result P&C underwriting result Investment income Capital gains/losses Pre-tax profit
5.0 12.0
U
SD
(b
illio
ns
)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 U SD ( b illio ns )Underwriting Performance
The combined ratio of the listed ABA improved by 0.3 percentage points to 89.9% in 2014. Reported catastrophe losses were significantly reduced relative to the prior year and well below the long-term average. Support from favourable development of prior year reserves increased for the second year in a row, notwithstanding deterioration of the New Zealand earthquake and Costa Concordia losses. Underlying trends were negative, as weakening pricing and business mix changes, particularly a shift towards longer-tail proportional contracts, impacted attritional loss and expense ratios.
Exhibit 17: Listed ABA Combined Ratio Composition
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Exhibit 18 shows the distribution of reported combined ratios across the listed ABA for 2014. All of the constituents were profitable on a calendar year basis, although half of them reported weaker results relative to the prior year. On a non-weighted basis, the average result was 85.6%.
Exhibit 18: 2014 Calendar Year Combined Ratios
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) **Excluding funds withheld
-0.7% -2.7% -4.6% -3.4% -4.2% -5.1% -4.4% -4.6% -4.8% 27.7% 28.8% 28.7% 29.3% 29.9% 29.9% 30.2% 30.8% 31.4% 59.4% 59.7% 62.0% 60.9% 58.7% 59.8% 58.7% 58.5% 59.5% 2.8% 3.7% 8.4% 3.2% 9.8% 20.3% 8.2% 5.6% 3.8% 89.2% 89.5% 94.5% 89.9% 94.2% 104.9% 92.6% 90.2% 89.9% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Total catastrophe losses Attritional loss ratio Expense ratio Prior year reserve adjustment 89.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Exhibit 19 shows the P&C underwriting results reported by the listed ABA companies. On a combined basis, Swiss Re, ACE and Munich Re contributed USD6.2 billion, or 37% of the total.
Exhibit 19: 2014 P&C Underwriting Results
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) **Excluding funds withheld Exhibit 20 shows prior year reserve development as a percentage of P&C net premiums earned by the listed ABA constituents in the last two years. Half of the companies reported lower releases in 2014. Exhibit 20: Prior Year Loss Reserve Adjustments
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 U SD ( b illio ns ) -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% FY 2014 FY 2013
Exhibit 21 shows the reported accident year combined ratios (excluding prior year reserve
movements) of the listed ABA companies. Only Markel and PartnerRe were unprofitable on this basis. Exhibit 21: 2014 Accident Year Combined Ratios
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) **Excluding funds withheld
Investment Results
The listed ABA reported cash and investments of USD899 billion at December 31, 2014, split fixed-income 66%, cash/short-term 9%, loans 8%, deposits with cedants 6%, equities 5% and other 6%. The underlying and total investment yields reported through income statements since 2006 are captured in Exhibit 22. The former has fallen by a third since 2007, reflecting the impact of the low interest rate environment.
Exhibit 22: Listed ABA Investment Yield
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *Reported through income statements, excluding unit-linked and with-profit business 94.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Listed ABA 4.9% 4.8% 1.9% 3.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Total investment yield (incl. capital gains/losses)* Ordinary investment yield*
Exhibit 23 shows the underlying and total investment yields reported by the ABA companies through their income statements in 2014 (excluding the impact of derivatives where separately disclosed). Investment classification varies and result comparison can therefore be misleading. Unrealized gains and losses are recognized in the income statements of some companies (e.g. PartnerRe, Fairfax and White Mountains), but in other cases are taken directly to equity.
Exhibit 23: 2014 Investment Yields
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *Reported through income statements, excluding unit-linked and with-profit business
Net Income
The ABA reported net income attributable to common shareholders of USD38.1 billion in 2014, an increase of 12% relative to 2013. Net income across the listed ABA rose by 4% to USD25.5 billion. Exhibit 24: ABA Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Ordinary investment yield* Total investment yield*
23.8 26.6 5.7 23.0 20.2 8.5 23.4 24.7 25.5 7.4 4.8 1.4 2.8 6.6 6.2 5.9 9.3 12.5 31.2 31.3 7.1 25.8 26.8 14.7 29.3 34.0 38.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 U SD ( b illio ns )
Exhibit 25 shows the distribution of net income by ABA constituent. The combined results of NICO, Munich Re, Swiss Re and ACE rose by 7% to USD22.5 billion, representing 59% of the total. Exhibit 25: 2014 Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Return on Equity
Exhibit 26 shows the development of net income attributable to common shareholders relative to average common shareholders’ funds across the ABA since 2006. Return on equity over this period (which encompasses both the financial crisis and the record year for insured catastrophe losses) averaged 11.2% for the listed ABA and 10.8% for the ABA as a whole.
Exhibit 26: ABA Common Net Income ROE
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 U SD ( b illio ns ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 U SD ( b illio ns ) 17.6% 16.6% 3.7% 14.1% 10.8% 4.4% 11.4% 11.1% 11.1% 17.7% 15.3% 3.6% 12.5% 10.7% 5.4% 10.1% 10.6% 11.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Listed ABA ABA
Exhibit 27 shows return on equity by ABA constituent, based on reported net income in 2014. Only 12 companies reported improved performance on this measure in 2014 (see data in Appendix 1). The result at XL was impacted by a one-off charge associated with the sale of the group’s discontinued life reinsurance operations.
Exhibit 27: 2014 Common Net Income ROE
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
11.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Listed ABA
ABA Business Model Evolution
A structural shift in the way capital is raised and
deployed to mitigate insurance risk is underway. The
pool of potential investors is broadening and new
money is flowing towards structures offering access to
quality business at relatively low cost. These changes
have forced the ABA companies to re-evaluate their
business models.
Who Are The New Investors?
Reinsurance as an asset class has performed relatively well in an environment of low interest rates and is viewed as having limited correlation with broader capital market movements. These attributes have attracted new investors such as pension funds, high net worth individuals and sovereign wealth funds, who typically:
• only enter the sector after extensive due diligence;
• invest a small percentage of the substantial assets at their disposal as a diversifying strategy;
• seek lower, more stable returns over longer timeframes than has historically been the case.
How Is New Money Being Deployed?
Much of the new capital is being channelled to specialist fund managers, who then deploy it into the insurance-linked securities (ILS) sector via catastrophe bonds or other ‘alternative’ structures such as industry loss warranties, sidecars and collateralized reinsurance. The current focus is property catastrophe and retrocession business, particularly in the US market where exposures tend to be best understood, although diversification into other lines and territories is underway.
Implications For ‘Traditional’ Reinsurers
New vehicles operating at a lower cost of capital are making in-roads into higher-margin areas that remain a key driver of profits for ‘traditional’ reinsurers. These dynamics are forcing many ABA constituents to rethink their business models in the pursuit of differentiation and relevance in the market. In the catastrophe reinsurance space, this increasingly means being able to offer larger line sizes, a full product suite including collateralized limits and enhanced claims service. Companies that are successful in attracting and deploying third party capital will potentially be able to advance their client offering, reduce earnings volatility through fee income, lower their own risk transfer costs and manage their capital bases more effectively.
How Are The ABA Companies Responding?
Most ABA constituents are now moving strongly to incorporate alternative capital into their business models (see Exhibit 28 for a summary of recent activity). Many are now actively involved in raising and managing third party capital. Others have invested in strategic partnerships with established independent specialist fund managers. Sidecar structures that allow sponsors to grow their footprint in the market without assuming additional balance sheet risk continue to be in vogue.
The availability of lower cost capital has allowed most ABA companies to drive down their own risk transfer costs. Retrocession pricing has reduced and in some cases additional protection has been purchased, with consequent impact on disclosed modeled exposures. In addition, a number of
catastrophe bond transactions have recently been brought to the market by ABA sponsors.
Exhibit 28: Recent Incorporation of Alternative Capital
Company Cat Bonds Third Party Capital Vehicles Other
ACE
The Altair Re reinsurance sidecar series provides collateralized support for ACE Tempest Re. Committed capital stood at $95m in 2013 and 2014. ACE is currently working with BlackRock to form Bermuda-based reinsurer ABR Re.
A new global cat program at Jul 1, 2014 reduced the modelled peak 1-in-250-year PML from 10.3% to 8.1% of shareholders’ equity. Approximately 20% of the coverage was placed on a fully collateralized basis.
Alleghany
TransRe ownership of Pillar Capital increased to 50% in Jun 2014. TransRe operates the Pangaea Re reinsurance sidecar series and is reported to be working in partnership with Providence on a reinsurance captive.
Ongoing investment partnership with Ares Management. Investments in Pillar Capital and its managed funds contributed a return of $22m in 2014 and totaled $235m at the year-end.
Allied World
Allied World has a minority interest in Aeolus Capital and contributed $350m of funds for investment during 2014. Reported to have worked with Pine River Capital in trying to establish a new hedge fund reinsurer in 2H 2014.
Retro programs were purchased on a fully collateralized basis in 2013 and 2014. A collateralized property cat quota share reinsurance contract with Aeolus Re generated $87m of assumed premium in 2014.
Amlin
Tramline Re (Dec 2011, Jun 2013, Dec 2014)
Amlin raised its ownership of Leadenhall Capital from 40% to 75% in Oct 2014. AuM totalled $1.9bn at year-end, including £64m from Amlin. SPS 6106 (2009-2013).
Syndicate 2001 and Amlin AG fronted £25m of business for Leadenhall in 2014. From 2015, Amlin purchased a single retro program and cut its tolerance for RDSs by £50m to £300m net.
Arch
Arch co-sponsored Watford Re with Highbridge Capital, investing $100m for an 11% interest (Mar 2014). Watford Re takes 10% of Arch’s property cat book and wrote $80m of open market business in 2014.
Increased retro purchases reduced Arch's largest 250-year PML for a single event (North-East US wind) to a record low of 9% of common shareholders' equity at Jan 1, 2015.
Argo Loma Re (Jun 2011,
Dec 2011, Dec 2013)
The Harambee Re sidecar series provides Argo with fully collateralised
reinsurance support. Formed ILS fronting partnership with Horseshoe Re (Mar 2014).
Aspen
The Silverton Re sidecar series writes a collateralized quota share of Aspen Bermuda's property cat book. Committed capital rose from $65m in 2014 to $85m in 2015.
Aspen Capital Markets (est Mar 2013) now has $185m of third party AuM and is being used to help manage net cat exposure. ACM contributed $13m to Aspen's results in 2014.
Axis Northshore Re
(Aug 2013)
Formed AXIS Ventures with $50m of third party capital (Nov 2013). Class 3A insurer AXIS Ventures Reinsurance Ltd provides AXIS with fully collateralized reinsurance support.
AXIS Ventures completed 8 transactions and contributed $3m towards group earnings in 2014. AXIS Ventures Re had total assets of $97m at the end of 2014.
Beazley SPS 6107 (since 2010).
Catlin Galileo Re (Oct 2013, Feb 2015)
Catlin has operated SPSs since 2012, providing whole account quota share support to Syndicate 2003. From 2014, a ‘Portfolio Participation Vehicle’ provides similar collateralised protection to Catlin’s non-Lloyd’s entities.
Commissions and fees recognised by Catlin from third-party capital providers totalled $66m in 2014. The group is writing ~15% of its business against almost $350m of third party capital in 2015.
Endurance
Additional retro was purchased in 2014 and at Jan 1, 2015. The peak 1-in-100 year PML reduced to 10.3% of shareholders' equity at Dec 31, 2014, from 11.0% a year earlier.
Everest Re Kilimanjaro Re (Apr 2014, Nov 2014)
The Mt. Logan Re sidecar series writes worldwide cat on a fully collateralized basis. Third party AuM totalled $690m at the end of 2014, all of which was deployed in the January renewals. Mt. Logan Re generated $28m of fees for Everest Re in 2014.
Everest Re is growing its property cat book, but has kept its net risk appetite stable by transferring risk to Mt.Logan Re, sourcing $950m of retro capacity from cat bonds and purchasing ILWs to hold its Florida PML steady. Hannover
Re Eurus (Sep 2012)
The K-Cessions sidecar series provides fully collateralized quota share retro support. Capacity rose by 25% to $400m for 2015.
Hannover Re is active as a rated fronting market for collateralized reinsurance vehicles and opened its internal ILS fund to third parties via Leine Investment from Jan 2013.
Hiscox The Kiskadee Re sidecar series has provided collateralized reinsurance support since Jun 2013. SPS 6104 (since 2008).
Kiskadee Investment Managers (est Jun 2013) expects to have $500m of committed capital by mid-2015. Hiscox currently manages $4bn of cat quota share capacity for investors.
Lancashire
Kinesis Re I Ltd (est. Jun 2013) writes multi-class reinsurance business on a fully-collateralized basis, deploying around $340m of limit in 2014. Previous vehicles include Saltire Re (aggregate covers) and the Accordian Re series (property retro).
Bermuda-based third party capital manager Kinesis Capital Management was formed in Jun 2013. Lancashire's peak 1-in-250 year PMLs have been reduced via the purchase of additional retro. Most of the cover is reinstateable in 2015.
Markel The New Point Re sidecar series underwrites property retro business on a fully collateralized basis. Erik Manning joined as Managing Director of Alternative Solutions at Markel Re in Jun 2014.
Montpelier Re
Collateralized property cat reinsurance is written via Blue Water Re and Blue Capital Re.
Blue Capital Management was launched in Dec 2012 to offer a range of property cat-linked investment products to institutional and retail investors. AuM totalled $790m in Jan 2015.
Munich Re Multiple sponsor Reinsurance sidecars Eden Re I and Eden Re II provide a combined $365m of property cat XL capacity in 2015. Munich Re has operated an internal ILS fund for 6+ years. Increased retro purchases have reduced peak PMLs.
PartnerRe
Sidecar Lorenz Re formed with $75m of third party capital to provide additional capacity for a diversified portfolio of cat reinsurance treaties over a multi-year period on a fully collateralized basis (Mar 2013).
Lorenz Re had total assets of $101m at the end of 2014.
Platinum PMLs have been reduced through the purchase of additional retro protection.
QBE VenTerra Re (Dec 2013)
RenRe Mona Lisa Re (Jul 2013)
RenRe operated Upsilon Re (Jan 2013, Jan 2014) and Timicuan Re (Jun 2009, Jun 2012) sidecars. In Nov 2014, the Upsilon platform was converted into perpetual funds, writing fully collateralized reinsurance and retro and investing in ILS.
Managed property cat-oriented joint ventures include DaVinci, Top Layer Re, Medici, Upsilon RFO and Upsilon Fund. Third-party capital spread across these vehicles totalled $1.1bn at the end of 2014.
SCOR Multiple sponsor Sidecar Atlas X ($55m of capital) provides 3 years of collateralized quota share capacity to SCOR Global P&C’s property cat book (Jan 2014). SCOR Global Investments has operated the Atropos ILS funds since Aug 2011. AuM totalled $460m in mid 2014.
Swiss Re Multiple sponsor Sector Re sidecar series. No plans to open internal ILS fund to third parties.
Validus The AlphaCat sidecar series writes collateralized property cat and retro. Top layer cat is written via PaCRe (owned 10% by Validus). At the end of 2014, AlphaCat had $1.5bn of third party AuM ($289m in the AlphaCat sidecars, $786m in the AlphaCat ILS funds and $459m in PaCRe). White
Mountains
Class 3 Bermudian insurer Alstead Re was formed to write collateralized reinsurance and retro business from Jan 2014.
During 4Q, the strategic direction of Sirius Capital Markets (launched in May 2013) was reviewed and entities that were formed for this initiative are being dissolved or redeployed.
XL Vector Re writes global property cat business on a collateralized basis from Jan 2014.
XL and Stone Point established New Ocean Capital Management in Nov 2013. The net assets of the New Ocean Cat Fund and Vector Re were $94m and $47m at Dec 31.
Mergers & Acquisitions
Four high profile M&A deals involving ABA companies have been announced in recent
months. RenaissanceRe’s acquisition of Platinum completed on March 2, 2015.
Proposed transactions between XL and Catlin, Axis and PartnerRe and Fairfax and Brit
remain subject to regulatory and/or shareholder approvals.
Exhibit 29 provides an indication of the scale the combined entities would achieve in capital terms, were all of the transactions to complete, albeit based only on the aggregation of reported figures at the end of 2014.
Exhibit 29: Shareholders’ Funds at December 31, 2014
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Exhibit 30 provides an indication of the scale the combined entities would achieve in terms of P&C gross premiums written, were all of the transactions to complete, albeit based only on the aggregation of 2014 volumes.
Exhibit 30: 2014 P&C Gross Premiums Written
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis *P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 U SD b n
Combined entities on a pro forma basis
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 U SD ( b illio ns ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 U SD ( b illio ns )
ABA Valuation
The overall market capitalization of the ABA companies was relatively stable during 2014, but has increased by 6%
since the beginning of 2015. The trailing price-to-book ratio began 2014 at 1.14x and dipped briefly below 1.0x in
October, but has since rebounded to 1.16x.
Exhibit 31: ABA Market Capitalization
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of March 27, 2015, excluding Berkshire Hathaway Exhibit 32 shows the share price development of individual ABA companies since the beginning of 2014.
Exhibit 32: Share Price Development Since Jan 1, 2014
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of March 27, 2015
Exhibit 33: ABA Trailing Price-to-Book Ratio
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of March 27, 2015, excluding Berkshire Hathaway
Exhibit 34 shows the evolution of the trailing price-to-book values of individual ABA companies since the beginning of 2014.
Exhibit 34: Trailing Price-to-Book Ratios
Source: Bloomberg 40 60 80 100 120 140
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Lancashire RenaissanceReValidus Arch MapfreACE Allied WorldAxis PartnerRe EnduranceHiscox Everest ReQBE Amlin Aspen White MountainsXL Argo SCOR Beazley AlleghanyCatlin Munich RePlatinum Swiss Re Montpelier ReMarkel Hannover ReFairfax 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Argo PartnerReSwiss Re XL PlatinumValidus Axis Aspen White MountainsAllied World EnduranceAlleghany Everest ReSCOR Montpelier Re RenaissanceReCatlin Munich ReMapfre QBEACE LancashireArch MarkelFairfax Hannover ReAmlin BeazleyHiscox March 27, 2015 January 1, 2014
Financial Strength Ratings
Several ABA companies have benefited from positive rating actions since the beginning of 2014, as shown in Exhibit
35. Recently announced M&A transactions have provoked a cautious response, pending further discussion with
senior management teams.
Exhibit 35: Financial Strength Ratings
Main Operating Company A.M. Best Standard & Poor’s
ACE Tempest Reinsurance Ltd A++ Stable AA Stable
Allied World Assurance Co Ltd A Stable A Stable
Amlin AG A Stable A Stable
Arch Reinsurance Ltd A+ Stable A+ Stable
Argo Re Ltd A Stable - -
Aspen Bermuda Ltd A Stable A Stable
AXIS Specialty Ltd A+ Review Negative A+ Stable
Beazley Insurance Company, Inc A Stable - -
Catlin Insurance Company Ltd A Review Positive A Stable
Endurance Specialty Insurance Ltd A Stable A Stable
Everest Reinsurance (Bermuda) Ltd A+ Stable A+ Stable
General Reinsurance Corporation A++ Stable AA+ Stable
Hannover Rück SE A+ Stable AA- Stable
Hiscox Insurance Company (Bermuda) Ltd A Stable - -
Lancashire Insurance Company Ltd A Stable A- Stable
MAPFRE Re, Compania de Reaseguros SA A Stable A Stable
Markel Bermuda Ltd A Stable A Stable
Montpelier Reinsurance Ltd A Stable A- Stable
Munich Reinsurance Co A+ Stable AA- Stable
National Indemnity Company A++ Stable AA+ Stable
Odyssey Reinsurance Company A Stable A- Negative
Partner Reinsurance Co Ltd A+ Review Negative A+ Stable
Platinum Underwriters Bermuda Ltd A Review Developing A- CreditWatch Positive
QBE Re (Europe) Ltd A Stable A+ Negative
Renaissance Reinsurance Ltd A+ Review Negative AA- Stable
SCOR Global P&C SE A Stable A+ Positive
Sirius International Insurance Corp A Stable A- Stable
Swiss Reinsurance Co A+ Stable AA- Stable
Transatlantic Reinsurance Co A Positive A+ Stable
Validus Reinsurance Ltd A Stable A Stable
XL Re Ltd A Review Negative A+ Stable
Source: A.M. Best, Standard & Poor’s Upgrade / outlook raised since January 1, 2014
Downgrade / outlook lowered since January 1, 2014
Appendix 1: ABA Data
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014Company Reporting Currency (millions) P&C Gross Premiums Written FY 2013 P&C Gross Premiums Written FY 2014 Change P&C Net Premiums Earned FY 2013 P&C Net Premiums Earned FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE USD 20,752 21,261 2% 14,708 15,464 5% Alleghany USD 4,886 5,097 4% 4,239 4,411 4%
Allied World USD 2,739 2,935 7% 2,006 2,183 9%
Amlin GBP 2,467 2,564 4% 2,095 2,201 5% Arch USD 4,197 4,841 15% 3,146 3,594 14% Argo USD 1,888 1,905 1% 1,304 1,338 3% Aspen USD 2,647 2,903 10% 2,172 2,405 11% Axis USD 4,697 4,712 0% 3,707 3,871 4% Beazley USD 1,970 2,022 3% 1,591 1,659 4% Catlin USD 5,309 5,966 12% 3,948 4,160 5% Endurance USD 2,665 2,894 9% 2,016 1,864 -8% Everest Re USD 5,219 5,749 10% 4,754 5,169 9% Fairfax USD 7,227 7,460 3% 5,994 5,985 0% Hannover Re EUR 7,818 7,903 1% 6,866 7,011 2% Hiscox GBP 1,699 1,756 3% 1,283 1,316 3% Lancashire USD 680 908 34% 568 716 26% Mapfre EUR 16,278 16,409 1% 13,229 13,227 0% Markel USD 3,920 4,806 23% 3,232 3,841 19% Montpelier Re USD 706 740 5% 600 645 8% Munich Re1 EUR 17,013 16,730 -2% 16,237 16,150 -1% PartnerRe USD 4,590 4,667 2% 4,235 4,387 4% Platinum USD 580 509 -12% 553 507 -8% QBE USD 17,975 16,332 -9% 15,396 14,084 -9% RenaissanceRe USD 1,605 1,551 -3% 1,115 1,062 -5% SCOR EUR 4,848 4,935 2% 4,256 4,287 1% Swiss Re USD 20,670 20,288 -2% 17,464 19,042 9% Validus USD 2,401 2,363 -2% 2,102 2,002 -5%
White Mountains USD 2,297 2,499 9% 1,987 2,059 4%
XL USD 7,417 7,761 5% 6,014 5,717 -5%
ABA (Listed Sector) USD 194,606 198,367 2% 162,054 165,997 2%
Gen Re USD 1,073 1,165 9% 554 564 2%
NICO USD 5,964 26,957 352% 5,884 23,680 302%
ABA (Total) USD 201,643 226,490 12% 168,492 190,240 13%
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Calendar Year Company Loss Ratio FY 2013 Loss Ratio FY 2014 Expense Ratio FY 2013 Expense Ratio FY 2014 Combined Ratio FY 2013 Combined Ratio FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE 59.6% 58.3% 28.3% 29.5% 88.0% 87.7% -0.2pp Alleghany 58.5% 56.6% 31.6% 32.2% 90.1% 88.8% -1.3pp Allied World 56.0% 54.9% 30.2% 30.3% 86.2% 85.2% -0.9pp Amlin 52.2% 55.6% 33.5% 33.0% 85.7% 88.5% 2.9pp Arch 53.4% 53.4% 32.5% 33.8% 85.9% 87.2% 1.3pp Argo 57.8% 55.9% 39.7% 40.3% 97.5% 96.2% -1.3pp Aspen 56.3% 54.4% 36.3% 37.3% 92.6% 91.7% -0.9pp Axis 57.6% 56.5% 33.4% 35.1% 91.0% 91.6% 0.6pp Beazley 45.0% 49.0% 39.0% 40.0% 84.0% 89.0% 5.0pp Catlin 52.3% 52.5% 33.3% 34.3% 85.6% 86.8% 1.3pp Endurance 60.5% 52.1% 29.7% 33.9% 90.2% 86.0% -4.2pp Everest Re 58.9% 56.2% 25.6% 26.6% 84.5% 82.8% -1.6pp Fairfax 61.6% 59.0% 31.1% 31.8% 92.7% 90.8% -1.9pp Hannover Re1 70.2% 68.9% 24.9% 26.1% 95.1% 95.0% -0.1pp Hiscox3 40.5% 40.4% 42.6% 43.5% 83.0% 83.9% 0.9pp Lancashire 33.1% 31.7% 37.1% 37.0% 70.2% 68.6% -1.6pp Mapfre 67.0% 68.0% 29.1% 27.7% 96.1% 95.7% -0.4pp Markel 56.2% 57.3% 40.6% 38.0% 96.8% 95.4% -1.4pp Montpelier Re 21.1% 29.4% 35.0% 36.3% 56.1% 65.6% 9.6pp Munich Re2 61.7% 60.2% 30.4% 32.5% 92.1% 92.7% 0.6pp PartnerRe 56.7% 56.1% 28.6% 30.0% 85.3% 86.2% 0.9pp Platinum 30.3% 36.2% 32.4% 33.2% 62.7% 69.4% 6.7pp QBE 64.5% 63.2% 33.3% 32.9% 97.8% 96.1% -1.7pp RenaissanceRe 15.4% 18.6% 28.4% 31.5% 43.8% 50.2% 6.4pp SCOR 64.1% 61.1% 29.7% 30.3% 93.9% 91.4% -2.5pp Swiss Re 55.3% 55.4% 30.0% 30.0% 85.3% 85.4% 0.1pp Validus 37.8% 38.6% 33.5% 35.1% 71.2% 73.7% 2.5pp White Mountains 52.4% 56.8% 35.6% 34.4% 88.0% 91.2% 3.2pp XL 62.0% 57.0% 30.5% 31.2% 92.5% 88.2% -4.3pp
ABA (Listed Sector) 59.4% 58.5% 30.8% 31.4% 90.2% 89.9% -0.4pp
Gen Re3
30.7% 41.7% 44.2% 47.1% 75.0% 88.9% 13.9pp
NICO3
49.2% 79.3% 25.3% 14.8% 74.5% 94.1% 19.7pp
ABA (Total) 59.0% 61.0% 30.7% 29.4% 89.6% 90.4% 0.7pp
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis 1Excluding funds withheld
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Accident Year Company Prior Year Reserve Adjustment FY 2013 Prior Year Reserve Adjustment FY 2014 Prior Year Reserve Adjustment as % of NPE FY 2013 Prior Year Reserve Adjustment as % of NPE FY 2014 Accident Year Combined Ratio FY 2013 Accident Year Combined Ratio FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE -530 -527 3.6% 3.4% 91.6% 91.1% -0.4pp Alleghany -203 -215 4.8% 4.9% 94.9% 93.7% -1.2pp Allied World -180 -213 9.0% 9.7% 95.1% 95.0% -0.2pp Amlin -134 -90 6.4% 4.1% 92.0% 92.6% 0.6pp Arch -264 -327 8.4% 9.1% 94.3% 96.3% 2.0pp Argo -34 -38 2.6% 2.8% 100.0% 99.0% -1.1pp Aspen -108 -104 5.0% 4.3% 97.6% 96.0% -1.6pp Axis -219 -259 5.9% 6.7% 96.9% 98.3% 1.4pp Beazley -218 -158 13.7% 9.5% 97.8% 98.6% 0.8pp Catlin -167 -120 4.2% 2.9% 89.8% 89.7% -0.1pp Endurance -222 -234 11.0% 12.5% 101.2% 98.6% -2.7pp Everest Re -18 -40 0.4% 0.8% 84.8% 83.6% -1.2pp Fairfax -440 -446 7.3% 7.4% 100.0% 98.2% -1.8pp Hannover Re1 -424 -276 6.2% 3.9% 101.3% 98.9% -2.4pp Hiscox -140 -172 10.9% 13.1% 94.0% 97.0% 3.0pp Lancashire -16 -34 2.8% 4.8% 73.0% 73.4% 0.4pp Mapfre -87 -443 0.7% 3.3% 96.8% 99.1% 2.3pp Markel -411 -436 12.7% 11.3% 109.5% 106.7% -2.8pp Montpelier Re -144 -152 24.1% 23.5% 80.2% 89.2% 9.0pp Munich Re2 -759 -900 4.7% 5.6% 96.8% 98.3% 1.5pp PartnerRe -721 -660 17.0% 15.1% 102.3% 101.2% -1.1pp Platinum -161 -128 29.0% 25.3% 91.7% 94.7% 3.0pp QBE 552 -1 -3.6% 0.0% 94.2% 96.1% 1.9pp RenaissanceRe -144 -144 12.9% 13.5% 56.7% 63.7% 7.0pp SCOR -31 0 0.7% 0.0% 94.6% 91.4% -3.2pp Swiss Re -1,137 -673 6.5% 3.5% 91.8% 88.9% -2.9pp Validus -205 -252 9.8% 12.6% 81.0% 86.3% 5.3pp White Mountains -48 -6 2.4% 0.3% 90.4% 91.5% 1.1pp XL -290 -255 4.8% 4.5% 97.3% 92.6% -4.7pp
ABA (Listed Sector) -7,486 -8,003 4.6% 4.8% 94.9% 94.7% -0.2pp
Gen Re3
-248 -170 44.7% 30.2% 119.7% 119.1% -0.6pp
NICO3
-968 -896 16.5% 3.8% 90.9% 97.9% 7.0pp
ABA (Total) -8,702 -9,069 5.2% 4.8% 94.8% 95.2% 0.3pp
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.d. = not disclosed
1Excluding funds withheld 2P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 3As calculated by Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Company Net Investment Income FY 2013 Net Investment Income FY 2014 Capital Gains / Losses FY 2013 Capital Gains / Losses FY 2014 Total Investment Return FY 2013 Total Investment Return FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE 2,144 2,252 504 -507 2,648 1,745 -34% Alleghany 466 460 188 211 654 671 3% Allied World 158 177 50 128 208 305 47% Amlin 33 36 101 101 134 137 2% Arch 267 303 85 49 352 351 0% Argo 100 87 71 94 171 181 5% Aspen 186 190 36 32 223 222 0% Axis 409 343 68 142 477 484 2% Beazley 58 57 -15 26 43 83 92% Catlin 116 119 8 107 124 226 82% Endurance 166 132 13 13 179 145 -19% Everest Re 549 531 300 84 849 615 -28% Fairfax 474 510 178 1,667 652 2,177 234% Hannover Re 1,314 1,350 98 122 1,412 1,472 4% Hiscox 38 42 16 11 55 53 -2% Lancashire 36 36 13 -6 49 30 -38% Mapfre 1,660 2,146 297 0 1,956 2,146 10% Markel 317 363 63 46 381 409 8% Montpelier Re 64 47 -49 5 15 52 253% Munich Re1 6,907 6,675 1,323 2,395 8,230 9,070 10% PartnerRe 498 495 -161 372 337 867 157% Platinum 72 69 22 2 94 71 -24% QBE 665 678 112 103 777 781 1% RenaissanceRe 231 150 35 41 266 192 -28% SCOR 443 474 48 112 491 586 19% Swiss Re1 3,947 4,103 741 393 4,688 4,496 -4% Validus 101 108 -55 -35 46 74 61% White Mountains 111 105 162 284 273 389 43% XL 1,096 885 88 123 1,184 1,008 -15%
ABA (Listed Sector) 26,057 26,470 4,985 7,050 31,042 33,520 8%
Gen Re 706 642 191 -19 897 623 -31%
NICO 6,109 12,567 2,163 2,241 8,272 14,808 79%
ABA (Total) 32,872 39,679 7,339 9,271 40,210 48,950 22%
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.m. = not meaningful
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Company Pre-Tax Result FY 2013 Pre-Tax Result FY 2014 Change Pre-Tax Return on Equity FY 2013 Pre-Tax Return on Equity FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE 4,238 3,487 -18% 15.0% 11.9% -3.1pp Alleghany 855 932 9% 12.8% 12.9% 0.1pp Allied World 428 521 22% 12.5% 14.3% 1.8pp Amlin 326 259 -21% 20.5% 14.9% -5.6pp Arch 743 844 14% 13.7% 13.2% -0.5pp Argo 180 216 20% 11.7% 13.5% 1.8pp Aspen 343 368 7% 10.1% 11.0% 0.9pp Axis 734 830 13% 12.6% 14.1% 1.5pp Beazley 313 262 -16% 24.6% 19.5% -5.1pp Catlin 432 488 13% 11.8% 12.6% 0.7pp Endurance 318 349 10% 11.4% 11.5% 0.1pp Everest Re 1,555 1,446 -7% 22.5% 19.4% -3.2pp Fairfax -1,001 2,338 n.m. -11.5% 25.7% 37.2pp Hannover Re 1,102 1,371 24% 16.6% 18.5% 1.9pp Hiscox 245 231 -6% 17.6% 16.1% -1.5pp Lancashire 218 227 4% 15.3% 16.1% 0.8pp Mapfre 1,564 1,824 17% 15.6% 17.1% 1.5pp Markel 362 440 22% 6.7% 6.1% -0.6pp Montpelier Re 211 245 17% 12.0% 12.9% 0.9pp Munich Re 3,441 2,859 -17% 12.8% 10.1% -2.7pp PartnerRe 722 1,308 81% 10.5% 18.9% 8.3pp Platinum 258 182 -29% 14.2% 10.4% -3.7pp QBE -448 931 n.m. -4.1% 8.7% 12.8pp RenaissanceRe 841 687 -18% 17.7% 13.7% -4.0pp SCOR 640 675 5% 13.1% 12.6% -0.5pp Swiss Re 4,825 4,227 -12% 14.4% 12.2% -2.2pp Validus 597 538 -10% 13.7% 12.8% -0.9pp White Mountains 345 302 -13% 8.0% 6.8% -1.2pp XL 1,094 259 -76% 9.4% 2.3% -7.2pp
ABA (Listed Sector) 28,017 31,172 11% 11.9% 12.8% 0.9pp
Gen Re 1,040 689 -34% 9.3% 5.9% -3.4pp
NICO 9,041 11,867 31% 10.2% 12.4% 2.2pp
ABA (Total) 38,098 43,727 15% 11.4% 12.5% 1.1pp
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.m. = not meaningful
*Calculated by excluding the impact of net realized and unrealized investment gains/losses reported through income statements
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Company Common Net Income FY 2013 Common Net Income FY 2014 Change Return on Equity* FY 2013 Return on Equity* FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE 3,758 2,853 -24% 13.3% 9.8% -3.6pp Alleghany 628 679 8% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0pp Allied World 418 490 17% 12.2% 13.4% 1.2pp Amlin 299 237 -21% 18.8% 13.7% -5.1pp Arch 688 812 18% 13.5% 14.6% 1.1pp Argo 143 183 28% 9.3% 11.4% 2.1pp Aspen 294 317 8% 10.2% 11.3% 1.1pp Axis 684 771 13% 13.1% 14.8% 1.8pp Beazley 264 218 -18% 20.8% 16.2% -4.5pp Catlin 392 418 7% 12.8% 12.7% -0.1pp Endurance 279 316 13% 11.8% 12.1% 0.3pp Everest Re 1,259 1,199 -5% 18.4% 16.6% -1.8pp Fairfax -634 1,576 n.m. -8.5% 20.3% 28.8pp Hannover Re 895 986 10% 15.0% 14.7% -0.4pp Hiscox 238 216 -9% 17.1% 15.1% -2.0pp Lancashire 223 229 3% 15.6% 16.3% 0.7pp Mapfre 790 845 7% 10.1% 10.0% -0.2pp Markel 281 321 14% 5.3% 4.5% -0.8pp Montpelier Re 191 211 10% 12.9% 14.1% 1.2pp Munich Re 3,304 3,153 -5% 12.4% 11.3% -1.2pp PartnerRe 597 998 67% 10.0% 16.6% 6.5pp Platinum 223 165 -26% 12.3% 9.5% -2.8pp QBE -254 742 n.m. -2.3% 6.9% 9.3pp RenaissanceRe 666 510 -23% 20.1% 14.6% -5.5pp SCOR 549 512 -7% 11.3% 9.6% -1.6pp Swiss Re 4,444 3,500 -21% 13.3% 10.2% -3.1pp Validus 533 481 -10% 13.8% 13.2% -0.6pp White Mountains 322 313 -3% 8.4% 7.9% -0.5pp XL 1,060 188 -82% 10.3% 1.9% -8.5pp
ABA (Listed Sector) 24,656 25,539 3.6% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0pp
Gen Re 931 538 -42% 8.4% 4.6% -3.7pp
NICO 8,391 12,007 43% 9.5% 12.6% 3.1pp
ABA (Total) 33,978 38,084 12% 10.6% 11.3% 0.7pp
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.m. = not meaningful
Exhibit 36: Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 (cont’d) Company Cash and Investments FY 2013 Cash and Investments FY 2014 Change Shareholders’ Funds FY 2013 Shareholders’ Funds FY 2014 Change Listed Groups ACE 61,977 64,063 3% 28,825 29,587 3% Alleghany 19,490 19,441 0% 6,924 7,473 8% Allied World 9,026 9,263 3% 3,520 3,778 7% Amlin 4,510 4,564 1% 1,678 1,783 6% Arch 14,037 15,842 13% 5,647 6,130 9% Argo 4,237 4,179 -1% 1,563 1,647 5% Aspen 8,300 8,654 4% 3,300 3,419 4% Axis 14,768 14,980 1% 5,818 5,821 0% Beazley 4,430 4,451 0% 1,339 1,343 0% Catlin 9,209 9,276 1% 3,783 3,992 6% Endurance 6,575 6,720 2% 2,887 3,185 10% Everest Re 16,824 17,664 5% 6,968 7,451 7% Fairfax 24,893 25,803 4% 8,353 9,526 14% Hannover Re 46,149 52,080 13% 5,888 7,551 28% Hiscox 3,157 3,490 11% 1,409 1,453 3% Lancashire 2,484 2,343 -6% 1,460 1,357 -7% Mapfre 40,133 48,673 21% 7,834 9,153 17% Markel 17,612 18,638 6% 6,674 7,595 14% Montpelier Re 3,306 3,190 -3% 1,642 1,648 0% Munich Re1 203,535 219,965 8% 25,945 30,033 16% PartnerRe 18,274 17,988 -2% 6,710 7,049 5% Platinum 3,612 3,398 -6% 1,747 1,738 0% QBE 30,632 28,597 -7% 10,356 11,030 7% RenaissanceRe 7,230 7,269 1% 3,904 3,866 -1% SCOR 23,755 25,894 9% 4,940 5,694 15% Swiss Re1 143,332 137,355 -4% 32,952 35,930 9% Validus 8,110 8,409 4% 3,704 3,588 -3% White Mountains 8,003 7,803 -3% 3,906 3,997 2% XL 36,192 30,712 -15% 9,998 10,034 0%
ABA (Listed Sector) 917,805 898,912 -2% 228,620 239,804 5%
Gen Re 15,810 15,672 -1% 11,562 11,707 1%
NICO 148,939 162,422 9% 97,226 93,998 -3%
ABA (Total) 1,082,554 1,077,006 -1% 337,408 345,508 2%
Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis
Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines
Contacts
Mike Van SlootenHead of Market Analysis - International Aon Benfield Analytics
+44.207.7522.8106
[email protected] Mike McClane
Head of Market Analysis - Americas Aon Benfield Analytics
+1.215.751.1596
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Market Analysis - International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.3898
[email protected] Marie Teissier
Analyst
Market Analysis - International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.3951
[email protected] Eleanore Obst
Analyst
Market Analysis - International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.3823
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