The Melbourne Cup, the race that stops the nation, proved last year why it’s one of the most unpredictable races on the sporting calendar. However the Brain, Bohemia’s Data Intelligence Platform, returns to take on the challenge in 2015 and hopefully help everyone back a winning horse.
Bohemia love turning big data into friendly and actionable insights and we hope that this document lives up to that promise.
The formula for 2015 has not been altered too much from the past two years but has been refined to focus more on the attributes that shape the perfect horse, jockey and trainer to deliver a winner. The Brain also recognises that, as the premier racing event of the year, everyone is going to have an opinion as to why their favourite horse deserves to be considered. So using social tracking the Brain has factored in opinions from the media, betting sites and the general public to help separate the true contenders from the rest of the field.
A large number of factors that go into winning the Melbourne Cup are out of the horse or jockey’s control but are vital to the outcome. This is known as the ‘common thread’ and here are a few examples of what to look out for when choosing whom to back:
66%
of winners have been given saddlecloth numbers between1
&12
.The last time a
3
year old won the race was back in1941
.80%
of winners in the past 50 years have been foaled outside of Australia. Only30%
of winners had previously run the Melbourne Cup. Only4
horses have won the race carrying more than57kgs
.It would be very brave to bet solely using these common threads without evaluating additional factors that go into a winning run. Luckily for you The Brain has done the hard work, turn over to find out whom Bohemia are backing to win The Cup.
After analysing all of the data in the year between the last race and today, The Brain has come up with the 5 best horses to back and their expected times.
Contributing to the model’s key areas are 7 data points, which are each given a weighting based on their influence in delivering a Melbourne Cup winner. These data points include:
Common Thread - As explained in ‘The Model’ section above
Winning Ratio - A measure led by how often a horse has won compared to races run
Form - Uses a factored formula to look at the horse's last 10 races with a weight for recency Jockey Influence - The jockey's past 12 month success in the same barrier, weight, field size and distance
Market Sentiment - Measured by starting odds and their movement to represent the market's mood
Social Importance - Directed by chatter from the public, betting sites and key influencers in racing
Money Pot - Takes average prize money per race as an indicator of character to win and race experience
If you prefer the art over science of picking a horse then why not consider what’s in a name? For many a race goer, it’s all in the name. We have all been known to put a few bets down on a horse named after our sister, brother or significant other. Let’s see if Bohemia can help steer you in the right direction.
Last year we took a deep dive into the alphabetical breakdown of the names of jockeys and horses, pulling out the most likely initials to win based on the historical data. This year it’s all in the
1 Snow Sky (16) Odds: $41.00 2 Criterion (4) Odds: $15.00 3 Fame Game (12) Odds: $4.60 4 Our Ivanhowe (22) Odds: $19.00 5 Big Orange (23) Odds: $61.00 6 Hartnell (17) Odds: $31.00 7 Hokko Brave (20) Odds: $35.00 8 Max Dynamite (2) Odds: $12.00 9 Red Cadeaux (8) Odds: $23.00 10 Trip to Paris (14) Odds: $7.00
11 Who Shot Thebarman (6)
Odds: $23.00
12 Sky Hunter (7)
Odds: 35.00
Will feel comfortable in the pack with his jockey having won 38 times in a field of this size.
Has placed second in 3 out of the 4 last Melbourne Cups - he knows the race well and can last the distance.
Trained by Chris Waller and finished 3rd in the Melbourne Cup last year. The bay coloured gelding has won at the distance before.
The very experienced jockey, Frankie Dettori, will help guide the perfect race. Could make it back to back wins for German horses after Protectionist's victory last year.
Is carrying the top weight in the race so no doubt has the pedigree to win.
Jockey James McDonald knows what it takes to win with 55.5Kgs having won 49 times with the same weight.
Has the strongest form out of all the horses winning 5 out of its last 10 races. Finished 2nd in the Cox plate and jockey Michael Walker has won 54 times with horses carrying the same weight.
The distance will be no trouble having won at 4000m previously.
The strong favourite with the bookmakers, and has a favourable barrier draw for the race.
13 The Offer (13) Odds: $26.00 14 Grand Marshal (15) Odds: $41.00 15 Preferment (11) Odds: $9.00
16 Quest for More (21)
Odds: $81.00 17 Almoonqith (10) Odds: $16.00 18 Kingfisher (9) Odds: $41.00 19 Prince of Penzance (1) Odds: $81.00 20 Bondi Beach (18) Odds: $23.00 21 Sertorius (5) Odds: $126.00
22 The United States (3)
Odds: $21.00
23 Excess Knowledge (24)
Odds: $35.00
24 Gust of Wind (19)
Odds: $35.00
Jockey Jim Cassidy will make this his final ride and is sure to want to cap a wonderful carrier with a win.
Is only carrying 51Kg, the joint lightest in the field. The sole Australian bred horse in this years field.
The Irish horse is the right age to push for top honours in this years race. Is comfortable at the distance having won at 3236m in the past.
Starts from barrier 1 and is ridden by Michelle Payne, only the 4th female jockey to ride in the Melbourne Cup.
Winner of the Geelong Cup so is carrying great form into the race.
Is the right age to win the race and 7 previous winners have come from barrier 11.
Trained by Gai Waterhouse who knows what it takes to win the Melbourne Cup. Is very light, only carrying 52.5Kgs and had a good victory in the Moonee Valley Cup. Has a winning combination of Gai Waterhouse as trainer and Damien Oliver as Jockey.
This year 6 Bohemians contributed to the creation of the prediction model, Matt Slater, Nick Sauerman, Jenna Olovic, Ruth Cosgrave, Megan Leckey and Steve Wright. Their passion and commitment to providing some valuable insights will hopefully help you pick a winner on the day of the race.
Please note that this model is not intended to be taken seriously. It has been produced with the primary purpose of enjoyment. Bohemia and the Bohemia Data and Attribution team have limited knowledge of horse racing and in no way does this document constitute professional advice nor should you rely on the contents of this document when undertaking any gambling activities. No warranty (express or implied) is given to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document.
For help and advice, visit gambling help online (www.Gamblinghelponline.Org.Au) or phone 1800 858 85
