1685.pdf

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

L I S T O F T A B L E S iv

L I S T O F F I G U R E S v

L I S T

O

F A B B R E V I A T I O N S vi

L I S T

O

F S Y

M

B O L S vi i

A C K N O

W

L E D G E

M

E N T S vi i i

A B S T R A C T ix

C

H

A P T E R S

1 I N T R O D U C T I O N 1

2 B A

C

K G R O U

N

D A N D L I T E R A T U R E R E V I E

W

La nd Us e Re_gr e s sio n . . 4

T he Bu i lt Env ir o n

m

e nt a n

d

A ir

Q

u al it_y 9

3.

M

E T H O D O L O G Y

Ov e r view of the Stud y Re_{g i}o n 1 5

T he Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n a

l

M

ode

l

1 8

La nd U s e Re_gr e s sio n

M

odel Sele ctio n 2 1

La nd U s e Re_gr e s sio n

M

odel Cal ibr atio n 2 5

R isk As s e s s

m

e nt

M

odel 3 0

4 B A S E C A S E R E S U L T S

Ba s e Ca s e Su

m m

a r_{y S}tatistic s 3 3

Ba s e Ca s e P

M

2 5 Co n c e ntr atio n s 3 5

Ba s e Ca s e A t tri butab le

M

o rtal it_y 3 6

D is c u s sio n 3 9

5 S C E N A R I O

M

O D E L I N G

A lte r n ativ e La n

d

De v elo_p

m

e nt Sc e n a rio s 4

3

Sc e n a rio Su

m m

a r_{y S}tatistic s 5 0

Sc e n a rio P

M

2 5Co n c e ntr atio n s 5 2

Sc e n a r

io A t tr_i

b

uta

b

le

M

o rta

l i

t_y

5

5

D is c u s sio n _{5 9}

6 D I S C U S S I O N A N D P O L I C Y I

M

P L I C A T I O

N

S 6 2

Pol ic_{y I}

m

_{p l i}c atio n s 6 5

7. C O N C L U S I O N S 6 8

9. A P P E

N

D I C E S

A p pe n

d

ix I: An n u al Av e r a_ge P

M

2 5 Data a n

d

D

is c u s s

io n 6 9

A p pe nd ix I I: Ex_{p l}a n ato r_{y V}a riab le s 8

0

A p pe nd ix I I I: Statistic al An a_{l y}sis 1 12

L I S T O F T A B L E S

1 Bu i lt En vir o n

m

e nt a n

d

A ir

Q

u al it_{y L i}te r atu r e 10

2. No rth A

m

e ric a n La nd U s e Regr e s sio n Stud ie s 2 3

3. Ba s e Ca s e Su

m m

a ry Statistic s 3 3

4. At tri butab le De aths fr o

m

P

M

2 5, 2 0 1 0 3 7

5

M

odel Er r o r _Te r

m

s 4 1

6 Sc e n a rio Su

m m

a r_{y S}tatistic s, Populatio n De n sity 5 0

7. At tri butab le De aths fr o

m

P

M

_{2 5}

, Sc e n a rio 1 5 7

8.

At tr

i b

uta

b le

De aths fr o

m

P

M

2 5,

Sc e n a r

io 2 5 9

L I S T O F F I

G

U

R

E S

1 Co u_{p l}ed

M

o

de

l Re s e a r c

h

Sche

m

atic 1 5

2. Stu

d

y A r e a Ov e r view 16

3. Tria ng le Reg io n al

M

odel Sche

m

atic 1 9

4 Lo c atio n of A ir

Q

u al it_y

M

o nito rin _{g S}tatio n s 2 8

5. Pr ed icted P

M

2 5 Co n c e ntr atio n s, Ba s e Ca s e

3

6

6 Esti

m

ated De aths At tr ibutab le to P

M

_{2 5}, 2 0 1 0 3 9

7. Populat

io n

D

e n s

it

y, Sc e n a r

i

o 1 4 6

8. Populatio n cha nge r elativ e to the ba s e c a s e. Sc e n a rio 1 4 7

9. Populatio n De n sity , Sc e n a rio 2 4 9

1 0. Populatio n cha nge r elativ e to the

b

a s e c a s e. Sc e n a rio 2 5 0

1 1. Pr ed icted PM2 5 Co n c e ntr atio n s, Sc e n a rio 1 5 3

12 Pr ed icted PM 2 5Co n c e ntr atio n s, Sc e n a rio 2

54

1 3 Esti

m

ated De ath Rate A t tri butab le to P

M

2 5, Sc e n a rio 1 5 5

L I S T O F A B B R E V I A T I O N S

C O Ca rbo n

m

o n o xi

d

e

C O2 Ca rbo n d io xi de

G I S Ge o_gr a_{p h i}c In fo r

m

atio n S yste

m

H C _{H y d}r o c a rbo n

H I A He alth i

m

pa ct a s s e s sme nt

N O N i tr o_ge n o xi

d

e

N O 2 N itr oge n d io xi de

N Ox A l l

m

o n o

-_ni_{tr o}

ge n o xi de s

O3 Oz o n e

P

M

Pa rtic ulate

m

at te r

P

M

2 5 A l

l

_pa rtic ulate

m

at te r w ith a d ia

m

ete r le s s tha n 2.5 |am

P

M

io A l l pa rtic u late

m

at te r w ith a d ia

m

ete r le s s tha n 1 0 |jm

R R Relativ e risk

R T P Re s e a r ch Tria n_{g l}e Pa rk

S 0 2 Sul fu r d io xi

d

e

T A Z Tr a n s_porta tio n a n al ysis z o n e

T R

M

Tria n_{g l}e re_{g i}o n al

m

odel

V K T Veh icle

-k i

l

o

m

ete r s tr a v el le

d

L I S T O F S Y

M

B O L S

\i_g =

M

icro_gr a

m

;1 x 1 0 ~_^

gr a

m

s

P

^ = Pa r a

m

ete r c o ef

fi

cie nt fo r the nth

m

odel te r

m

E —

M

odel err o r te r

m

R^ — Co ef fi cie nt of dete r

m

in atio n

A y = At tri butab le

m

o rtal it_y o r

m

o rb i d it_y

yo = Ba s el in e in c i de n c e, equ al to ba s el in e in ci

d

e n c e r ate

(

Iq

)

m

ulti p l ied b y the pote ntial l y

af

f

e cted po_pulatio n

₍

P

)

P

= Co n c e ntr atio n

-r e s_po n s e c o ef fi cie nt fr o

m

e_{p i d}e

m

iolo_{g i}c al stud ie s

A C

K

N O

WL E D G

M

E N T S

I w ish to a ckn ow le_{d g}e

m

_y c o

m m

it te e fo r t

h

eir s u_{p p}o rt a nd w i l hn_gn e s sto sha r e their

e x_pertise thro u_{g h}o ut the c o

m

_{p l}etio n o f th isr e s e a r ch S pe cia l tha nks are du e to Dr. Pa ul

Vo s s fo r h is v alu ab le c o ntri

b

utio n s to the statistic al

m

ethods u s ed in th is r e s e a r ch, Jo e

Hu e_{g y f}o r h is a s sista n c e w ith the Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

odel, a nd

M

o n isha K hu r a n a fo r

A B S T R A C T

T H E O D O R E JA

M

E S

M

A N S F I E L D : T he Bui lt En v ir o n

m

e nt, S patial Va riatio n in F in e

Pa rtic u late

M

at te r Con c e ntratio n s, a nd At tri butab le

M

o rtal ity: A Sc e n a rio

-B_{a s e}d L_{a n}

d

U s e Re_gr e s sio n A p

_p

r o a ch

A la nd u s e r e_gre s sio n

m

odel is c al i

b

r ated to _pr ed ict a n n u al a v e r a_ge P

M

2 5 c o n c e ntr atio n s

thr o u _{g h}o ut the Tr ia n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n A risk a s s e s s

m

e nt

m

odel is u s ed to _pr e

d

ict at tri

b

utab le

al l

-c a u s e

m

o rtal it_y fr o

m

e x_po s u r e to _pr ed icte

d

c o n c e ntr atio n s T w o alte r n ativ e la n

d

d

e v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s a r e c o

m

_pa r ed to c u r r e nt c o nd itio n s in te r

m

s of air _qu al it_y a nd

he a

lt

h i

m

_pa cts T

h i

s stu

d

_{y fi} nds t

h

at c o

m

_pa ct

d

e v elo_p

m

e nt alo n e is n ot a n ef fe ctiv e

inte r v e ntio n to r edu c e al l-_{c a u s e}

m

o rtalit_y at tri butab le to fi n e _pa rtic ulate

m

at te r in u rba n

a r e a s_; howe v e r, r eg io n al air qu al ity i

m

pr o v e s in r e spo n s e to

m

o r e c o

m

pa ct de v elop

m

e nt

W

h i le c o

m

_pa ct dev elo_p

m

e nt _pat te rn s

m

a_y redu c e total veh icle-k i l_o

m

_et_{e r s} t_{r a v e}l l_ed _{a n}d

i

m

_pr o v e r e_{g i}o n al air _qu al it_y, the c o

m

b in atio n o f c o

m

pa ct u rba n fo r

m

s a nd a uto

m

ob i le

de_pe n

d

e n c e

m

a_y r e s ult in s_{i g}ni fi c a nt lo c al air _qu al it_{y i}

m

_pa cts c o-l_{o c ate}

d

w

i

_th

a r e a of

h i g

h

_po_pulatio n de n s

it

_y. T he r efo r e, c o

m

pa ct u rba n fo r

m

s

m

ay e x a c e rbate he alth i

m p

a cts

a s s o ciated w ith fi n e _pa rtic ulate

m

at te r i f othe r _pol ic_y o_ptio n s to r edu c e a uto

m

ob i le

C ha_pte r 1: Intr odu ct io n

Urba nizatio n is o c c u r rin_g at a r a_{p i d} r ate a c r o s s the _{g l}obe. Fo r the fi r st time in hu

m

a n

h isto r_y,

m

o r e tha n hal f of the w o rl d '

s _po_pulatio n

l i

v e s in citie s In

m

a n_y de v elo_ped

c o u ntrie s, gr e ate r tha n 8 0

%

o f the populatio n l iv e s in u rba n a r e a s

(

T he

W

o rl d Ba nk,

2 0 1 1

₎

. T he r ole of u rba n ag g lo

m

e r atio n s a s the

d

om

i

n a nt

m

ode of

hu

m

a n s et tle

m

e nt

pro v i de s a str o n_g r atio n ale fo r r e s e a r ch o n the i

m

_pa cts of ur_ba nis

m

o n hu

m

a n he alth a n

d

wel l-b_ei_n

g. How e v e r,

m

a ny ef fe cts of la rge

-_{s c a}l_{e u r}

b

_{a n}i_s

m

_{o n} h_um_{a n} w_e

l l

-

b

_ei_n

g r e

m

ain

u nde r-_{r e s e a r c}h

ed Pub l ic he alth, br o ad l y defi n ed a s

"

the s cie n c e a nd a rt o_{f p}r e v e ntin_g

d is e a s e, pr olo ng ing l i fe a n

d

pr o

m

oting he alth thr o ug h t

h

e o rga niz ed ef fo rts a n

d

info r

m

ed

choic e s of s o c

i

et_y, o rga niz atio n s, pub l ic a nd priv ate, c o

m m

u nitie s a n

d i

nd ivi du als

" is

inhe r e nt_{l y l i}nked to the e n v ir o nme nt in w h ich w e l iv e

₍

W

in slow, 1 9 2 0

)

T hu s, the ef fe cts

of u rba niz atio n o n _pub l ic he alth c o n stitute a n a r e a of r e s e a r ch that is r elev a nt fr o

m

both

a n a c ade

m

ic a nd pol ic_y-

m

_ak i_n

g pe r s_pe ctiv e T h is r e s e a r ch e x _{p l}o r e s o n e of the

m

a n_y

w a_ys in w h ich urba nizatio n a_{f f}e cts _pub l ic he alth: fi n e _pa rtic ulate

m

atte r c o n c e ntr atio n s

r e s u ltin_{g f}r o

m

u r

b

a n de v elo_{p m}e nt a nd the he alth ef fe cts of e x _po s u r e to fi n e _pa rtic u late

m

at te r

Relatio n s_{h i p}s betw e e n the bui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt a n_{d p}ub l ic he alth be_ga n at tr a ctin_g

fo c u s ed r e s e a r ch at te ntio n in r e s_po n s e to two inf lu e nt

i

al e_{p i d}e

m

iolo_{g i}c al c oho rt stud ie s

-the Ha r v a r

d

" S ix C itie s Stud y" a nd the A

m

e ric a n Ca n c e r So ciet_{y S}tud y

(

Do cke r_y et al.

2 0 0 3, Pope et al 1 9 9 5

)

A s u

b

-t

he alth fo c u s e s o n the r elatio n sh ip betwe e n the bui lt e n vir o n

m

e nt a nd air _qu al it_y

₍

s e e, fo r

e x a

m

_{p l}e, Fr an k et al 2 0 0 6

)

Howe v e r,

m

a ny e x isting stud ie s of the bui lt e n v iro n

m

e nt a nd

air _qu al it_y a r e l i

m

ited to a s s e s sin_g a_{g g}r e_gate em is sio n s o v e r la r_ge s_patial s c ale s

(

s e e, fo r

e x am_{p l}e, Beha n et al 2 0 0 8, Ko r a cin et al 2 0 0 9

) W

h i le impo rta nt fr o

m

a r eg io n al o r

g lobal pers_pe ctiv e, ag gr egate em is sio n pr ed ictio n s a r e n ot u s eful in elu ci datin g the

i

m

_pa cts o_{f p}ol luta nts o n a lo c a

l

s c ale. T

h

e a

b

i l ity to pr e

d

ict lo c a

l

s c ale i

m

pa cts

i

s c r u c

ia

l

in cha r a cte rizin_g the _pub l ic he alth r a

m

i ficatio n s of bui lt u rba n fo r

m

s. Fu rther

m

o r e, the

l i

te r atu r e o n the bui lt e n vir o n

m

e nt a n

d

air _qu al it_{y h}a s _ge n e r a

l

l y r el ied u_po n _gri

d d

e

d

che

m

ic al fate a nd tra n s_port

m

odels w ith c o a r s e s_patial r e s olutio n

₍

s e e Tab le 1

₎

. In

r e s_po n s e to th is sho rtc o

m

in_{g i}n the l ite r atu r e, th is r e s e a r ch u s e s a la nd u s e r egr e s sio n

m

odel to _pr e

d

ict air _qu a

l

it_{y w i}th h i g he r s_patial r e s olutio n tha n _pr e v io u s stud ie s in o rde r to

e x_{p l}o r e the r elatio n sh i p betw e e n the bui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt, lo c al air qu al ity, a nd hu

m

a n

e x_po s u r e to air

b

o r n e c o nta

m

in a nts A risk a s s e s sme nt model is inte_gr ate

d

into the

r e s e a r ch de si gn to tr a n slate _pr ed icted lo c al air _qu al it_{y i}nto e sti

m

ated he alth ef fe cts F in e

pa rtic ulate

m

at te r, defi n ed a s pa rticle s s u spe nded in the air w ith a d ia

m

ete r s

m

al le r tha n

2.5 fi

m

a nd r efe r r ed to a s

(

P

M

2 5) is the e n v ir o n

m

e ntal pol luta nt of inte r e sts in th is stud y.

G iv e n the e sta

b

l ished he alth ef fe cts of P

M

2 5 a r e the

d

e

m

o n str ate

d

ab i l it_y

l

a n

d

u s e

r e_gr e s sio n

m

o

d

els to a c c u r ate_{l y}

m

odel s_patial v a riatio n in P

M

_{2 5} c o n c e ntr atio n s in the

u rba n c o nte xt

₍

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le, Ro s s et al. 2 0 0 7,

M

o o r e et al. 2 0 0 7

, a nd He nde r s o n et al.

2 0 0 7

₎

, P

M

2 5 is a n ap pr opriate pol luta nt fo r th is stud y.

T he ai

m

of th is r e s e a r ch is to elu ci

d

ate the r elatio n sh ips a

m

o n_g the

b

u

i l

t

envir o n

m

e nt, a

ir

qu al ity, a nd t

h

e he alth ef fe cts of hu

m

a n e x po s ur e to P

M

2 5 A la nd u s e

c u r r e nt c o nd itio n s in the Ralei g h-D

u rha

m

-C h

a_pel H i l l

m

etr o_po l ita n statistic al a r e a

(

he n c efo rth r efe r r ed to a s the " Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n"

)

. In ad d itio n to c u r r e nt c o nd itio n s, tw o

altern ativ e la nd de v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s ar e a s s e s s ed in ter

m

s of r e_{g i}o n al air _qu al it_y a nd

C ha_pte r 2: Ba ck gr o u nd a n d L i te r atu r e R e view

A _gr ow in_g bod y of l iteratu r e e x ists e x_{p l}o rin_g the relatio n sh i ps betw ee n the bu i lt

e n v iro nme nt a n

d

_pub l ic he alth. A l ite r atu r e r e v iew of two pri

m

a ry

b

od ie s of r e s e a r ch

a r e a s wa s u nde rtake n :

1

₎

_{A p p l i}c atio n s of la n

d

u s e r e_gr e s sio n to

m

odel lo c al air _qu al it_y; a nd

2

₎

Ex istin_g r e s e a r ch o n the bu i lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt a nd air

b

o r n e e

m

is sio n s

T he he alth ef fe cts of chr o nic e x _po s u r e to fi n e _pa rtic u late

m

at te r a r e wel l-d_{o c u}

m

e nted in

the l ite r atu r e a nd thu s a r e n ot r e v iewed s e_pa r atel y he r e

(

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le, Do cke ry et al

1 9 9 3; Kr ewsk i et al 2 0 0 0_; Lade n et al. 2 0 0 6; Pope et al 1 9 9 5

, 2 0 0 2

)

How e v e r, it sho ul d

be n oted that the _pr e s e n c e of P

M

2 5 is h i g h l y c o r r elated w ith the _pr e s e n c e of othe r

air

bo r n e

_pol luta nts, s u c

h

a s c a rbo n

m

o n o xi de

(

C

O

)

, h y dr o c a r

b

o n

(

H C

)

, a n

d

nitr oge n

o xi de s

(

N Ox

)

fr o

m m

o

b

i le s o u r c e s

(

Ku n zl i et a

l

2 0 0 0

)

. T hu s

, the

h

e a

lt

h ef fe cts o

f

P

M

2 5

m

a_y

b

e a n ef fe ctiv e _pr o x _y for the he alth ef fe cts of a w i de v ariet_y of airbo r n e

c o nta

m

in a nts a n

d

P

M

_{2 5}

m

a_y the r efo r e be a n ef fe ctiv e o v e r al l ind ic ato r of u rba n air

qu al it_y.

La n

d U

s e Re_gre s sio n

Br o ad l y, la nd u s e r egr e s sio n

m

odel ing is a sto cha stic te chni qu e that u s e s a defi n ed s et of

W

h i le the te rm la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n infe r s that o nl y la nd u s e data

m

a_{y b}e in the r e_gr e s sio n

m

odel, the te r

m

is a

m

is n o

m

e r - _{e x}

p

l

a n ato r_y v a ria

b

le s

_m

a_{y i}n clu de a n_{y d}ata that are

s_patial l y d istri buted o v e r the stud y a r e a In the u rba n c o nte x t, p

r e

_d

_icto r v a r

ia

b le s

m

a_y

in clude la nd u s e cha r a cte riz atio n, a v e r age dai l y tr af f ic, populatio n de n sity, ho u s ehol

d

cha ra cte r istic s, or a ho st of othe r bui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt cha r a cte ristic s. La nd u s e r egr e s sio n

m

odel in_g ha s be e n u s ed to _pr ed ict s_patial l y d istributed c o n c e ntr atio n s of air _qu al it_y

i

n_{d i}c ato r s

(

Ho ek et al. 2 0 0 8

)

.

La n

d

u s e r e_gr e s sio n is a sto c

h

a stic te chn

i

_qu e, thu s la n

d

u s e r egr e s s

i

o n

m

o

d

e

ls

r e_quir e lo c al a

m

b ie nt

m

o nito rin_{g d}ata fo r

m

odel c al i br atio n. Lo c al c al i br atio n a c c o u nts

fo r fa cto r s s u ch a s r e_{g i}o n al ba ck gr o u nd pol luta nt le v els, a v e r age

l

o c a

l m

ete o r o

lo

g ic a

l

c o nd itio n s, a nd lo c al a uto

m

otiv e f le et c o

m

po sitio n

(

i.e., fi i el

m

ix, v eh icle ty pe

m

ix, a nd

f le e

t-_{a v e r a}

ge fu el ef fi cie n c_y

₎

. T he r e is l ittle c o n s e n s u s r ega rd ing the n u

m

be r of a

m b

ie nt

m

o nito rin_g statio n s r e_quir e

d

to ef fe ctiv e

l

_y c al i

b

r ate a

m

o

d

el to lo c a

l

c o n

d it

io n s

(

Ho ek et

al 2 0 0 8

)

.

W

h i le Ho ek et al n ote that a

m

a

j

o rity of stud ie s u s e purpo s e

-b_ui lt _{n e}t w _{o r}k_s t_o

c ol le ct a la r_ge n u

m

be r of a

m

b ie nt c o nd itio n obs e r v atio n s, a n u

m

be r of stud ie s ha v e

uti l iz ed fi x ed r e_gulator_y

m

o nito rin_g statio n s w ith a

m

u c h s

m

al le r n u

m

be r of obs e r v ation s

(

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le,

M

o o r e et al., 2 0 0 7; Ro s s et al. 2 0 0 7

)

.

In _pr ed ictin_g air _qu al it_y, la nd u s e r egr e s s

io n

m

ay be c o n si de r ed a

m

et

h

odolog ic a

l

alte r n ativ e to che

m

ic al fate a nd tr a n s_po rt

m

odel in_g. T he pr i

m

a ry

b

e n efits of la n

d

u s e

r e_gr e s sio n

m

odel in_g a s c o

m

_pa r ed to che

m

ic al fate a nd tr a n s_po rt

m

odel in_g a r e r elativ e

c o

m

_putatio n al si

m

_{p l i}cit_y a nd ab i l it_y to _pr ed ict air _qu al it_y at fi n e s_patial r e s olutio n s

(

C yr_ys et al 2 0 0 5, He nde r s o n et al. 2 0 0 7

) W

h i le adv a n c ed d ispe r sio n

m

odels ha v e

s c ale, the c o

m

putatio n al a nd data requir e

m

e nts of s u ch

m

odels

m

ake the

m

infe a si b le for

a_{p p l i}c atio n a c r o s s a n u rba n a r e a

(

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le, Z w a ck et al. 2 0 1 1 a nd G r e c o et al.

2 0 0 7

₎

Fu rthe r

m

o r e, the c o

m

putatio n al c o

m

p

l

e x ity in

h

e r e nt in che

m

ic al fate a nd tr a n spo rt

m

odels

h

a s d ir e ct_{l y l}

i m

ite

d

eithe r t

h

e s_patial re s olutio n of gr i ds or the _ge o_gr a_{p h i}c s c ale of

a n al ysis in othe r stu

d

ie s

₍

Poto_{g l}o u et al 2 0 0 5, Z w a ck et al. 2 0 1 1

)

.

A n u

m

be r of stud ie s ha v e ex_{p l}o r ed the ab i l it_y of la nd u s e r e_gre s sio n te chni qu e s to

a c c u r atel y pr e

d

ict lo c al air

_q

u al it_y. A r e c e nt r e v iew y iel ded 2 5 stud ie s

(

Ho ek et al. 2 0 0 8

)

;

a n u

m b

e r of s ubs e_qu e nt stu

d

ie s

h

a v e

b

e e n c o n

d

u cted sin c e the 2 0 0 8 r e view

₍

s e e, fo r

e x a

m

_{p l}e, Ho ek et al 2 0 1 1,

M

a o et al 2 0 12

)

Ex isting stud ie s ha v e shown that la nd u s e

r e_gr e s sio n c a n a c c u r atel y pr e

d

ict lo c al a

i

r _qu al it_y at

h

_{ig h} s_patial r e s olutio n : stu

d

ie s in the

l

ite r atu r e r e_po rt R^ v alu e s in the r a n_ge of 0 6-0

.7

(

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le, Bri g gs et al 2 0 0 0,

Ho ek et al. 2 0 0 8, a n

d

Ho ek et al 2 0 1 1

)

. Fu rthe r

m

o r e, c o

m

pa r ativ e r e s e a r ch ha s r e v e aled

that la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

ethods a r e ab

l

e to

m

odel lo c al air _qu al

i

t_{y w i}t

h

a c c u r a c_y e_qu al

to o r e x c e ed in_g that of che

m

ic al fate a nd tr a n s_po rt models, thu s a ch ie v ing si

m

i la r r e s ults

u sin_g a le s s c o

m

_putatio n al ly e x_pe n siv e te chni qu e

(

Br

i

_{g g}s et al. 2 0

0

0, C yrys 2 0

0

5

)

.

W

h i le the

m

a

j

o rit_y of lo c al air _qu al it_{y l}a n

d

u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

o

d

els fo c u s o n

nitr o_ge n d io x i

d

e

(

N O2

)

, a n u

m

be r of stud ie s ha v e als o in v e sti gated the pote ntial of the

te chni qu e to

m

odel P

M

_{i o}, P

M

2 5, s o ot, v o

l

at

i l

e o rga n

i

c c o

m

po u nds

(

V O Cs

)

, a n

d

nitr oge n

o x i de

(

N O

)

. A

l

tho ug h the te chni qu e is sl ig htl y

m

o r e r obu st in te r

m

s of N O₂ du e to the

in c r e a s ed n um be r o

f

stu

d i

e s a n

d

r e

d

u c e

d d

e_pe n

d

e n c_y of

l

o c a

l

N O2 c o n c e ntr atio n s o n

r e_{g i}o n al ba ck gr o u nd le v els, P

M

2 5 stu

d

ie s ha v e y iel ded R ^

v alu e s in the s a

m

e _ge n e r a

l

r a n_ge a s N O _{2 s}tud ie s

₍

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p le, Ro s s et al 2 0 0 6, He nde r s o n et al 2 0 0 7,

M

o o r e et

a

l

. 2 0 0 7

r e_gr e s sio n

m

odels to _pr ed ict P

M

2 5 is the la ck of s_patial l y d istri buted

m

o nito ring statio n s

t

h

at tr a ck P

M

2 5

W

itho ut the s e data, la nd u s e r egr e s sio n

m

odels

m

ay n ot be wel l

c al i br ated to lo c al c o n

d

it

i

o n s a nd w i l l l i ke_{l y p}e rfo r

m

_po o r_{l y}.

Co

m

_putatio n al si

m

_{p l i}cit_y, the ab i l ity to pr ed ict air qu al ity w ith h i g h spatial

r e s olutio n, a nd de

m

o n str ated a c c u r a cy in pre v io u s stud ie s pr o vi de st

ro n_g ar_gu

m

e nts fo r

e

m

_{p l}o_{y i}n_{g l}a nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

odels w he n c o n si de rin_g the ef fe cts of u rba n fo r

m

o n air

qu al it_y a nd pu

b

l ic he alth at the lo c a

l

s c ale. He n

d

e r s o n et al. e cho th is point, n oting that

"

d

is_pe r sio n

m

odels that si

m

ulate _pol lutio n fate a n

d

tr a n s_po rt c a n

b

e u s e

f

u

l

,

b

ut a r e ofte n

in fe a si b le at _{h i g h} s_patial r e s olutio n thr o u_{g h}o ut la r_ge a r e a s"

₍

He nde r s o n et al. 2 0 0 7,

2 4 2 2

₎

. La nd u s e r egr e s sio n, o n the othe r ha nd,

"

c a n be u s ed to _pr ed ict c o n c e ntr atio n s at

a n_y s_patiote

m

_po r al r e s olutio n w ith in the fr a

m

ewo rk of a Ge o_gr a_{p h i}c Info r

m

atio n S yste

m

(

G

I S

₎

"

₍

He nde r s o n et al. 2 0 0 7

, 2 4 2 2

) M

a r shal l et al. als o n ote that la nd u s e r egr e s s

i

o n

"

is a _{h y}

b

ri

d

e

m

_{p i}r

i

c al-_st_atisti_{c a}l _a

p pr o a c

h

that c o

m b i

n e s c o n c e ntr atio n me a s u r e

m

e nts

w ith G I S

m

a_ps, thereb y o f fe ring a h i g h degr e e of spatial r e s olutio n

"

(

2 0 0 9, 17 5 3

)

. T hu s ,

e x

i

stin_g stud ie s _pr e s e nt s uf fi cie nt s u_{p p}o rt fo r la nd u s e r e_gr e s s

i

o n

m

odel in_g a s a n ef fe ctiv e

to ol fo r _pr ed ictin_{g l}o c al a

i

r _qu al it_y at

fi

n e s_patial r e s olutio n .

A l in_ge rin_{g i}s s u e

i

n t

h

e l ite r atu r e is u n c e rtaint_y r e_ga rd in_g the tr a n sfe r a

b

i l it_y of

l

a n

d

u s e r e_gr e s s

i

o n m o

d

e

l

s

b

etwe e n u r

b

a n a r e a s. Fu rt

h

e r

m

o r e

, a si gni

f

i c a nt pe r c e ntage of

e xistin_g stud ie s ha v e be e n u ndertake n in Eu r o_pe, w he r e de n s e r u rba n ag g lo

m

eratio n s, a

d

i f fe r e nt s_y ste

m

of e n vir o nme ntal r e_gulatio n s, d i f fe r e n t v eh icle f le et cha r a cte ristic s, a nd

d i f fe r e nt _pe r s o n al view s o n e n vir o n

m

e ntal r e s_po n si b i l it_y

₍

a nd thu s a s s o ciated d i f fe r e n c e s

in e n vir o n

m

e ntal l y be n efi cial beha v io r s

_{) m}

a_{y l i}

m

it the tr a n sfe r ab i l it_y of Eu r o_pe a n

m

odels

to t

h

e N o rth A

m

e ric a n c o nte xt How e v e r

r e v e aled the _pote ntialof lo c al l y c al i br ated

m

odels to _pr ed ict lo c al air _qu al it_y a c c u r atel y i f

tr a n sfer r ed e v e n to c o ntr a stin_g u rba n a r e a s

(

Bri g gs et al 2 0 0 0

)

A n ad d itio n al stud y

s u_{p p}o rts the tr a n sfe r ab i l it_y of la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

odels, stating that "

the r e is o nl y a

s

m

a_{l l p}e n alt_y in l i

m

itin_g la n

d

u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

o_dels to a c o n siste ntl y defi n ed s et o_f

pr e

d

icto r v a riab le s"

₍

V ie i

m

e a u et al. 2 0 1 0

)

. T h is stu

d

y is s o

m

ew hat l i

m

ited

i

n that

V ie n n e a u et al o nl y a n al yz ed the tr a n sfe r a

b

i l it_y o

f

N O 2 a n

d

P

M

i o

m

o

d

e

l

s

b

etw e e n Gre at

Britain a nd the Nethe rla nds Po_{p l}aw sk i et al. als o c o n clude that the tr a n sfe r ab i l ity of

m

odels betw e e n cit

i

e s in Ca n ada is r elativ el y h i g h

(

Po_{p l}awsk i et al. 2 0 0 9

)

; howe v e r ,

Je r r et t et al fi nd that a

m

odel c al i brated in the Eu r o_pe a n c o nte x t do e s n ot e x _{p l}ain s_patial

v a r iatio n in Ha

m

i lto n, O nta rio, Ca n

d

a

(

Je r r et t et a

l

2 0 0 5

)

. T

h

u s,

i

t s e e

m

s t

h

at la n

d

u s e

r e_gr e s sio n

m

odels a r e _ge n e r al l y tr a n sfe r ab le w

i

th in the s a

m

e

b

r o ad s o cietal a n

d

r e_gu lato r_y c o nte x t, s ub

j

e ct to r o utin e lo c al c al

i b

r atio n. Stud ie s of the New Yo r

k

m

etr o_po l ita n a r e a a nd the Lo s An_gele s u rba n a r e a ha v e

b

r o a_{d l y d}e

m

o n str ated the ab i l it_y

of la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

odel in_g to _pr ed ict lo c al air _qu al it_y

w

ith s uf fi cie nt a c c ura c_y

(

R ^ ₌

0 6 2 a nd 0 6 9, r e spe ctiv el y

)

in the N o rth A

m

e ric a n c o nte xt

(

Ro s s et al 2 0 0 6;

M

o o r e et al.

2 0 0 7

₎

T he r efo r e, a lo c al l y c al i

b

r ated

m

o

d

el t

h

at ha s

b

e e n shown pr e v

i

o u sl y to

b

e

ef fe ctiv e in t_he Un ited State s ma_y

b

e tr a n sferab le to othe r si

m

i la r

m

etr o_pol ita n a r e a s in

the United State s.

A

n ad

d

itio n al a r_gu

m

e nt fo r the _ge n e r al tr a n sfe r a

b

i l it_y of la n

_d

u s e r e_gr e s sio n a s a

te c

h

n_{i q}u e is t

h

e e x iste n c e o f c o n siste nt

m

et

h

ods in the l ite r atu r e r elatin_g to _pr ed icto r

v a riab le s ele ctio n, pr ed

i

cto r v a riab

l

e r e

fi

n e

m

e nt, c al i br atio n, a nd v a

l

i

d

atio n te chn

i

qu e s.

Stu

d i

e s ha v e u s ed the s a

m

e _ge n e r al methodolo_{g i}c al fr a

m

ewo rk in

m

a n_y c o ntr a stin_g u rba n

la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

odels a r e a l in e a r c o

m

b in atio n of v a riab le s, in c lud ing a

m

odel

c o n sta nt. Co

m

mo n exp la n ato ry v a ria

b

le in stud ie s pr e

d i

cting P

M

2 5 c o n c e ntr atio n s

in clude tr af fi c de n sit_y a nd /o r inte n sit_y, la n

d

u s e cla s si fi c atio n, a n

d

populatio n de n s

i

ty

(

s e e, fo r e x a

m

p

l

e, Ro s s et al 2 0 0 6, He nde r s o n et al. 2 0 0 7

,

M

o o r e et al 2 0 0 7, a nd Ho ek

et al. 2 0 1 1

)

Re se arch s ug ge sts that the a c c u r a cy of la nd u s e r egr e s sio n is n ot

s_igni fi c a nt_{l y} af

f

e cted i f the fo rm of a

m

o

d

el that ha s

b

e e n c al i

b

r ated in a si m i la r c o nte xt

i

s ado_pted in a n ew u rba n a r e a a nd r e

-c al ibr ated u sin_{g l}o c al a

m

b ie n t

m

o nito rin_{g d}ata

(

Po_{p l}aws

k

i et al. 2 0 0 9

)

. T

h

u s, it c a n

b

e in

f

e r r e

d

that a la n

d

u s e r egr e s sio n

m

o

d

e

l

c o n sistin_g of a l in e a r c o

m

b in atio n of tr af fic de n sit_y a nd /o r inte n sit_y, la nd u s e

cla s si fi c atio n, a nd populatio n

d

e n sity is ge n e r al l y ap p l ic ab le in the Tria ng

l

e Reg io n ,

s ub

_j

e ct to c al i br atio n u sin_{g l}o c al a

m

b ie nt mo nito rin_{g d}ata.

T

h

e Bui

l

tEn viron me nt an

d

A ir

Q

u al it_y

A n u

m b

e r of stud ie s ha v e e x_{p l}o r ed the r elatio n s_{h i p b}etw e e n the bu il t e n v ir o n

m

e nt a nd

airbo r n e e

m

is sio n s _{A p}ri mar_y ai m of th is bo_{d y} of re s e a r ch ha s be e n to i de nt_{i f y} urba n

f

o r

m

s t

h

at

m

a_y

b

e ef fe ctiv e in r e

d

u c

i

n_g a_{g g}r e_gate e

m

is sio n s o r i

m

_pr o vin_g lo c al air

qu al it_y; howe v e r, fewe r stud ie s ha v e in cluded hu

m

a n e xpo s u r e to airbo r n e pol luta nts a s

a n o utc o

m

e v a riab le _Ge n e r al l y,

"

a

m

ethodolo_{g y} to _qu a nt_{i f y} v eh icle e

m

is sio n s

_[

that

_]

pr o_gr e s s e s fr o

m

v eh ic

l

e a ctiv

it

_y to

m

o

b

i le s o u r c e e

m i

s sio n s a nd d

i

s_pe r sio n

m

ode

l

s"

do

m

in ate s the _{l i}te r atu r e

(

Poto_{g l}o u a nd Ka n a r o_{g l}o u 2 0 0 5, 9 8

) W

h i le pub l ic he alth is a n

i

m

_po rta nt c o

m

_po n e nt of ma n_y e x ist

i

n_g stud

i

e s, stu

d

ie s that a s s e s s e

m

is sio n s in a n

a_{g g}r e_gate s e n s e a nd stu

d

ie s that in c o r_po r ate air _qu al it_y models w

i

th c o a r s e s_patial

r e s o

l

utio n a r e

l i m

ited in their a

b

i l it_y

i

n v e st_{i g}ate e x _po s u r e _path wa_ys at a n ef fe ctiv e s c a

l

e

T ab le 1. Bui lt En vir o n

m

e nt a nd A ir

Q

u al it_{y L i}te r atu r e Stu d y Stu_{d y}

Ty pe

Ge o_gra_{ph y} E m is sio n sa n d Air

Q

u al i_{t y}

M

odel Types

In de_pe nde nt Va ria _ble

₍

s

₎

lf gW*

Je rse_y - " '' '

F le e t-_af_cf_a ge

M

P G

D e_pende n t Va riab le

(

s

)

S

_{i |}

regate : ie i

^

S

_f

equiv ale nts _{i l}

l

A g gr e_ga t e C O2

A g gre_gate :H C, N O„

:, -C0

A ir_qu al it_y:Oz o n e, N O₂

Ex_po s u r e :Oz o n e N O: Po_pulat

i

o n-w_ei g h_ted c o n c e ntr atio n s :P

M

2 5, '

O₃ ,

^

J

A g gr e_gate :C O,N Ox, V O C,PM

A ir_qu al it_y:O3, PM |o Ex_po s u r e : Oi, PMio Pe r ho u s ehol d:_N

O

_x,

^$

i C O,V O C

^^, ^

J

^

Pe r c a_{p i}ta :N Ox , V O C

A g gr e_gate :C O2 2 0 0 8 statistic al

Ba rt, 2 0 10 Cr o s s -s e ctio n al

lieha n cta!. Sc e n a rio 2 0 0 8 _{« I |il} ».<

v,i

^

SM Bo r r e_go et Sc e n a rio al 2 0 0 6

C llrk et al, Cr o s s -2 0 1 1 s e ctio n al

D e R id de r et Sc e n a rio al , 2 0 08

Fr a nket al , Cr o s s 2 0 0 0 s e ctio nal

E U me_{m b}e r sta t es

Onta rio ,C A

I de al iz edcit_y

1 1 1 U Su rba n

a r e a s

Ruhr a r e a, Ge rma n_y

A g gr e_gate mem be r state em is sio n s

MO BlL E S

_g

, (n o d is_pe r sion

)

/

^ ^

M E M O MAR S

(

d is_pe r sio n_;2 k m gri d c el ls)

N '_A

: M o nito rin_{g d}ata

MIMO S A;A U R O R A

(

d is_pe r sio n , 2 k m gri d c el ls₎

K ing Co u nt_y, ;

. MO BH ^ Sa W A

Fr a nket al , 2 0 0 6 E w in_g etal,, 2 0i87 Ko r a cin e t al , 2 00 9

Tc\ %' c t al. 2 0 10 .. ..

Ma nin s et al , 199 8

Ma r sha

i r

et al , 20 0 5

Ma r shal l, 2 0 0 8 Ma r shallet

Poto_{g l}o u et al„ 2 00 5

Cr o s s -s e ctio n al Sc e n a rio

Sc ena rio

Pro

j

e ctio n

Sc e n ari o

K in_{g C}o u nt_y

,

W

A

United State s

South we st Cali fo r nia

R? U S u rba n

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Sc e n a r i o f

d

c a

f

iz ed cit_y "

Sc e n a rio

Cr o s s

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Li s ₍r e_{g i}o n al₎

Va n c o u v e r

e

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t

, c A .„ .„ Ham ilto n, Ontari o , C A

So n_g cl; il., S uawiio Austin, TX 20 0 8 ,;:;

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Sto a e e t al._, Seea^rio

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MO B I L E 6 2

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M

T ela sticit

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EMF A C 2 00 2+ C A Mx dis_pe r sio n model w / 5x5 k m gri d

Nf O B I L E 6, s o u r c e

-r c c c_Rto r matrix (d is_pe r sio n model₎ La nd-_{u s e}-_{tr a n s}

po rt model; dis_pe r sio n model

'

S in_{g l}e t

-o_{m p}a rtme n

f

'

model

(

u nifo rm c o n c e ntr atio n₎

Po_pu latio n de n sit_y-V K T ela sticit_y, f le et

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gr e s sio n; 03 : ss

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a nd CAMx \(0 , Mfl y

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I de al iz ed cit_>' f_{o r}m

Po_pulation de n sit_y,

p

opulat io n c e ntr ality,tr a n sit s up p l y

Sc e n a rio s

Ho u s ehold de n sit_y, wo rk em p lo_yme ntde n sit_y, home e_{m p l}o_{y m}e_ntde n sit_y,d ista n c e to wo r

_l

_{^g i i iS}s b lo c

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Sc e n ari o s

3

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a s*

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a i Sce n a rio s

Bu sin c ss-_as-ii<; i i.[l

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n a rio s

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j i ^

Sc e n a rio s

Nei g hbo rho od walkab i lit_y

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Sce nar i os

S

cftft arios -"

Compo site s_pr aw l inde x Sc enari o s

A g gr e_gate : C O,N O^, S O2,V O C, PM (total); A ir _qu al it_y:Oi Prematu r e de aths :N O,. S O_j, P M ,,

-; .

A g gr e_gate : C O2

A ir

_Q

u al it_y;O3 Ex_po s u r e :O₃,PM| o

'\i

f

qu al ity:

C(

1 l \_po s u r e :C O

A g gr egate :C O2

A

i

r

^

l

f

f

N O, 0 3

A ir

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u al it_y:( O

A

i|

^

gaf6:

K

₀x. V O C Ai rqu al it_y^Oj

\

-gr e'j :il e CO \ (K P \ 1. \ 0 (

A_{g g}re_ga t e :C O;

Br o a_{d l y}, the l ite r atu r e e xp lo ring the bui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt a nd air qu al ity c o n sists of

t

w

o

m

ethodo

l

o_{g i}c al a_{p p}r o a c

h

e s : c r o s s

-s e ctio n al stu

d i

e s c o

m

_pa rin_{g d i f f}e r e nt u rba n a r e a s

a nd s c e n a rio stud ie s w he r ein a n e x ist

i

n_g u r

b

a n a r e a o r a n i de al iz ed cit_{y i}s c o

m

_pa r ed to a

v a riet_y of alte r n ativ e la nd dev elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s Pol luta nts of inte r e st ha v e in clu_ded

pri

m

ar_{y p}ol lutants s u ch c a rbo n

d

io xi

d

e

(

C O2

)

, c a rbo n

d

io xi

d

e equiv ale nts

(

C O2 equi.

)

,

N O x, V O Cs, s ul fu r d io xi de

(

S O2

)

,

C

O, a n

d

pr

i m

a ry pa rtic u

la

te

m

at te r a nd s e c o nda ry

pol luta nts s u ch a s o z o n e

(

O3

)

.

W

h i le s o

m

e stud ie s c o n si der ind ivi du al pri

m

a ry pol luta nts,

ot

h

e r stu

d

ie s u s e at

m

o s_p

h

e ric

m

odel in_g to c o n si de r a n u

m be r

of _pol luta nts

si

m

ulta n e o u s

l

_y, in clud ing s e c o n

da r

y pol luta nts s u c

h

a s o z o n e De s c ri pt

i

v e stat

is

tic s o

f

the

b

ui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt ha v e in cluded qu a ntitativ e

m

e a s u r e s s u c

h

a s wal kab i l it_y, ho u s ehol d

de n sit_y, e

m

p loy

m

e nt de n sity, d ista n c e to wo r

k

, c e n su s b lo ck de n sity, a nd othe r s

(

Fr a nk et

al 2 0 0 0, Fr a nk et al 2 0 0 6

)

A signi fi c a nt dr aw

b

a ck o

f

s c e n a rio stu

di

e s is the ge n e r al la c

k

of

d

e s c r_{i p}tiv e statistic s of the bui lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt: alte r n ativ e

l

a nd de v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s

a r e _ge n e r a

l

l y de s c r ibe

d

in _ge n e r al, qu al itat

iv e

te r

m

s

W

h i le it is

di f f

i c ult to

d

r aw

ge n e r al iz atio n s ba s e

d

o n the e xistin_g l ite r atu r e du e to v a riatio n in stu_{d y d}e s_{i g}n a nd

v a riatio n in stu_{d y d}e s_{i g}n a nd c o n clu sio n s, the e x isting

b

o

d

y of r e s e a r c

h h

a s r e a c

h

e

d

s e v e r al intr_{i g}u in_g c o n clu sio n s a nd ha s be_gu n to elu ci

d

ate the c o

_m

_{p l}e x r elatio n s

h

i p that

e x ists betwe e n u rba n fo r

m

a nd air _qu al it_y. In ge n e r al, "

s

m

art _gr ow th" i de als s u ch a s

d

e n sit_y a n

d l

a n

d

u s e

d

iv e r s

i

t_y

h

a v e s

ho

wn _pr o

m

is e

in

i

m

_pr o vin_g a

i

r _qu a

l i

t_y; how e v e r,

s o

m

e stu

d

ie s ha v e s

h

own that in n o v atio n s in the v eh icle fl e et, s u ch a s the a

d

optio n of

h

_{y b}ri

d

ele ctric v eh ic

le s

a n

d

_{p l}u_g-i_n

h

y bri

d

s, a r e mo r e ef fe ctiv e in i

m

pr o ving air qu al ity

t

h

a n u rba n fo r

m in

te r v e n tio n s

(

So n_g et a

l

. 2 0 0 8

A pe r siste nt sho rtc om in_g of th is l ite r atu r e is the la ck air _qu al it_{y p}r ed ictio n s w ith

h i g h s_patial r e s olutio n . A s i l lu str ated in T ab le 1, n e a rl y al l stud ie s that c o n si de r air

qu al it_y a s a n o utc o

m

e r e_{l y} u_po n _gri d ded che

m

ic al fate a n

d

tr a n s_po rt mode

l

s w ith c o a r s e

s_pat

ia

l r e s o lutio n T wo e x c e_ptio n s e xist in the l ite r atu r e r e v iewed. An a n al ysis of

Va n c o u v er, British Colu

m

b ia, Ca n ada, in te r

m

s of w al kab i l ity a nd air qual ity u s ed la nd

u s e r e_gr e s sio n to _pr e

d i

ct a

i

r _qu a

l i

t_y at

h

_{i g h} s_pat ial r e s olutio n s

_(M

a r shal l et al 2 0 0 9

)

.

A d

d

itio n al l y, a stud y of tr a n spo rtatio n e

m

is sio n s in Ha

m

i lto n, Onta r io, Ca n ada u s e s a

l

in e s o u r c e d is_pe r sio n

m

o

d

e

l

a n

d

u n

i

v e r s al kr_{i g i}n_g to _pr ed ict air _qu al

i

t_y at _{h i g h} s_patial

r e s olutio n

W

h i le th is stu_{d y d}o e s n ot u s e la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n, the c o

m

b in atio n of a l in e

s o u r c e

d

is_pe r sio n

m

odel a nd u niv e r s al kr_{i g i}n_{g i}

m

_pr o v e s s_patial r e s olutio n c o

m

_pa r ed to

pe e r stu

d

ie s. H ow e v e r

, th is stu

d

y is l i

m i

te

d

be c a u s e the C A L I N E

-4

li

_{n e s o u r c e}

m

_od_el

u s ed is c o

m

_putatio n al l y l i m ited to a n a_{l y}ze o nl y tw e nt_y

₍

2 0

₎

l inks a nd tw e nt_y

₍

2 0

₎

r e c e_pto r n o

d

e s si

m

u

lta n e o u s

l

_{y; t}he r efo r e, a ge n e r al iz ed r o ad n etwo rk is u s ed fo r a n al ysis

a nd u niv e r s al kri g in_g is a_{p p l i}e_d betwe e n r e c e_pto r _points, thu s i gn o ring pote ntial ly

i

m

_po rta nt s_patial v a riatio n

b

etwe e n r e c e_pto r _points

₍

Poto_{g l}o u a nd Ka n a r o_{g l}o u 2 0 0 5

₎

T h is r e s e a r ch bui l ds u_po n the e x istin_{g b}od y of w o rk

b

_y a_{p p l y i}n_g a

la n

d

u s e r e_gr e s s

io n

m

o

d

el to alte r n ativ e la nd

d

e v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s

, thu s al low ing fo r air qu al ity a nd

e x _po s u r e _pr ed ictio n s w it_{h h i g h} s_pat

i

al r e s olutio n w itho ut n e e

di

n_g to

m

ake sim_{p l i f y i}n_g

a s s u

m

_ptio n s du e to c o

m

_putatio n al l i

m

itatio n s

W

h i le s o

m

ew hat clo uded

b

_y c o

m

_{p l i}c ated r e s e a r ch de si gn s, a fu nda

m

e ntal

c o

m

_po n e nt of t

h

e abo v e stud ie s is the r elat

i

o n s

h

_{i p}

b

etw e e n the

b

ui

l

t e n vir o n

m

e nt a n

d

tr a v el beha v io r

, in clud ing

m

ode choic e, c o

m m

ute pat te r n s, a n

d

tri p le ngth Pr ag

m

at

i

c al

l

y,

i

s, u rba n fo r

m

a nd chara cteristic s of the bui h e n vir o n

m

e nt shape ind ivi du al tr a v el

beha vior, w h ich in tu r n af fe cts total v eh icle

-k i l_o

m

_ete r s tr a v el l_e

d

,

m

odal choic e, a nd

u

l

ti

m

atel y air _qu al it_y Few stud ie s of t

h

e bu

i

lt e n v ir o n

m

e nt a nd air _qu al it_{y i}nte_gr ate a

fo u r-_ste

p r e_{g i}o n al tr a n s_po rtatio n de

m

a nd model into the r es e arch fr a

m

ewo rk; t

h

u s, t

h

e

in clu sio n of a c al i br ated fo ur-_ste

p tr a n s_portatio n de

m

a nd

m

odel in t

h

is r e s e a r ch is a n

C ha_pte r 3:

M

ethodolo_{g y}

T h is re s e a r ch u s e s thr e e c o u_{p l}ed

m

odels to in v e st_{i g}ate how u rba n fo r

m

, tr a v el

b

eha v io r, air qu al ity, a nd

h

u

m

a n e xpo s u r e to

fi

n e pa rt

i

c u

l

ate

m

at te r

i

nte r a ct a n

d

ulti

m

ate_{l y i}nf lu e n c e _pub

l i

c he alth. A tr a n sportatio n de

m

a nd

m

odel is fi r st u s ed to pr ed ict

tr af fi c c o nd itio n s thr o u_{g h}o ut the Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n A la nd u s e r e_gr e s sio n

m

odel, w h ich

u s e s _pr ed icted tr af fi c c o nd itio n s a s o n e of

i

ts e x_{p l}a n ato r_y v a ria

b

le s,

i

s t

h

e n u s e

d

to pr e

d i

ct

a nnu al a v e r a_ge P

M

_{2 5 c o n c e n}tr atio n s A r

i

sk a s s e s s

m

e nt

m

odel is the n u s ed to e sti

m

ate

al l

-c a u s e mo rta

l

it_y a s s o ciate

d

w it

h

e x_po s u r e to _pr ed icted a n n u al a v e r a_ge P

M

25

c o n c e ntr atio n s. T he

l

a n

d

u s e r egr e s s

i

o n

m

o

d

el is c al

i b

r ate

d

fo r t

h

e r eg

i

o n u s

i

ng e x

i

sting

a

m

b ie nt

m

o nito rin_{g d}ata. Ex isting c o n

d

itio n s a r e r efe r r ed to a s the ba s e c a s e T wo

alte r n ativ e la nd

d

e v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s a r e _ge n e r ated in o rde r to a s s e s s the ef fi c a c_y of

v a rio u s u rba n fr o

m

inte r v e ntio n s in te r

m

s of i

m

_pr o vin_g re_{g i}o n al air _qu al it_y a nd redu cin_g

h

u

m

a n ex_po s ur e to _partic ulate

m

at te r.

W

h i le the spatial d istri butio n of popu latio n de n sity

a n

d

e

m

_{p l}o_y

m

e nt a r e alte r ed in t

h

e two a

l

te r n ativ e la nd de v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s, p h ysic a

l

i

n

f

r a str u ctu r e a n

d

r e_g

i

o n al

d

e

m

o_gr a_{p h}

i

c

i

n

f

o r

m

at

i

o n a r e

h

el

d

c o n sta nt, the r e

b

y al low ing

c ete ris _pa ri

b

u s c o

m

_pa ris o n s a

m

o n_gst alte r n ativ e la nd de v elo_p

m

e nt s c e n a rio s,

i

n clu

d

ing

£ -,

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K 5^

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an

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a t a

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a s e

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rn

ativ e Dev elo_p

m

e n t Sc e n a rios

La ndUs eDaia

Laol

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A

n a

l

y s

i

s

= E_x

po s u r e Bui lt

En vir o n

m

e nt Relatio nsh i ps

° B

m

de n

of D is e a s e

M

o

d

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l 2

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a n

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a t a

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o utin e

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F i gu r e I Co u_{p l}e

d

M

odel Re s e a r c

h

Sche

m

atic

Over view o

f

the Study Re_{g i}o n

T he Re s e a r ch Tria n_{g l}e a r e a of North Ca r ol in a, c o n sisting of Ralei g h, Du rha

m

, Ca ry,

C ha_pel H i l l, a nd a n u

m

be r of s

m

al le r

m

u nici pal itie s, is a spr aw l ing u rba n ag g lo

m

e r atio n

i

n t

h

e P

i

e

d m

o nt r e_{g i}o n of c e ntr al N o rth Ca r ol in a T he _{2 0 1 0 p}o_pulatio n of the Ralei g h

-Du rha

m

-C_{a r}

y Co

m

b in ed Statistic al Ar e a

w

a s 1,7 4 9,5 2 5 pe r s o n s

b

a s ed o n Ce n s u s

e sti

m

ate s

(

U S Ce n s u s Bu r e a u, 2 0 10a

)

. T he stud y a r e a defi n ed b y the spatial e xte nt o

f

the Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

odel

₍

T R

M )

, w h ic

h

c o ntain s a

l l

o

f

Du rha

m

, Or a nge, a n

d

W

a

k

e

c o u ntie s a n

d

_po rtio n s of A la

m

a n c e, Ca sw e

l l

, C hatha

m

, Fr a nk l in, Gr a n vi l le, Ha r n et t,

John sto n, N a sh, a nd Pe r s o n c o u ntie s. T he stud y a r e a, alo ng w ith 2 0 10 populatio n de n s

i

ty

g

H i llsbo r o u_{g h}

I Xuli am

Ral o_gb

Cha_pel

m

i l

P itt sbor o

Majo r Ro ads

Co u nt_{y B}o u nda rie s

Pe r so n s _pe r _{S q}u a r e

M

fl e

< 7 5 0

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1,5 0 1 - ₂

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d

y Ar e a Ov e r v

i

ew

T he Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n ha s s e v e r al si gni fic a nt c e nte r s of e

m

_{p l}o_y

m

e nt. Re s e a r ch Tria ng le

Pa rk

(

R T P

)

c o ntain s a la r_ge n u

m b

e r of

_j

o

b

s in in

d

u str

i

e s s u ch a s _{p h}a r

m

a c e utic a

l

s,

info r

m

atio n te c

h

n olo_{g y}, a n

d

b i

ote chn olog y R T P in the c e nte r of the r eg io n

ge o_gr a_{p h i}c al l y, e x a c e rbating spatial

m

is

m

atch bet w e e n p la c e s of r e si d

e n c e a n_{d p l}a c e s of

e

m

_{p l}o_y

m

e nt at the r e_{g i}o n al le v el a nd

m

a_gni f y in_g r e_{g i}o n al

m

ob i l it_y n e eds Othe r le ad in_g

Ralei g h, the Un iv e r sity o f N o rth Ca r ol in a at C hapel H i l l, Duke Univ e r sity in Du rha

m

,

a nd N o rth Ca r ol in a State Univ e r sit_{y i}n Rale_{ig h T h}e r e_{g i}o n is _{h i g h l y} a uto-d

e_pe nde nt,

w ith a _priv ate v eh icle

m

ode sha r e

₍

in clud in_g c a r_po ol in_g

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of 8 9.7

%

a s e sti mated b y the

2 0 10 A

m

e ric a n Co

m m

u nit_y Su r v e_y 5

-ye a r e sti

m

ate s

₍

U S Ce n s u s Bu r e a u, 2 0 1 0 b

)

A ltho u_{g h f i}x ed-_{r o u}t_e t_{ra ns}it _{s e}rvic e is _{p l}a n n ed for the n e ar futu re, the Triang le Reg io n

c u r r e nt_{l y} r el ie s s o

l

e

l

_y o n

b

u s tr a n sit a nd is s e r v e

d b

_y s e v e r a

l l

o c al tr a n sit a_ge n cie s,

s e v e r al u n iv e r sit_y

-a

f

fil iated tr a n s

i

t a_ge n cie s

, a nd o n e r eg io n al tr a n sit age n cy T he

Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n su f fe r s fr o

m

inte r

m

it te nt _po o r air _qu al it_y In _{2 0 10}

, 1 1 7 days w e r e

r e c o r

d

e

d

w ith a

m

o

d

e r ate A ir

_Q

u al it_{y I}n

d

e x a n

d fi

v e

₍

5

₎

d

a_ys we r e c o n si

d

e r ed "u n

h

e alt_{h y}

fo r s e n sitiv e _gro u_ps"

₍

U nited State s En viro n

m

e ntal Prote ctio n _{A g}e n c_y, 2 0 1 0

)

Pa rtic ulate

m

at te r c o n c e ntr atio n s a r e _ge n e r a_{l l y}

m

ode r ate a n

d

ha v e be e n

d

e c r e a sin_{g i}n the r e_{g i}o n

si gn_{i fi} c a nt_{l y} o v e r ti

m

e

(

Unite

d

State s En vir o n

m

e ntal Pr ote ctio n _{A g}e n c_y, 2 0 1 2

)

T he Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n ha s

b

e e n sha_pe_{d b y} a h isto r_y of s_pr aw l-_{e n a}b h_n

g pol ic_y ,

r e s ult

i

n_{g i}n a

d

e c e ntr a

l

iz e

d

a nd la r_ge

l

_y a uto-

d

_e

pe nde nt

b

u

i l

t e n v

i

r o n

m

e nt T hu s, fr o

m

a

pol ic_{y p}ers_pe ctive, the Tria ng le Reg io n s erv e s a s a n

"

u rba n labo r ato r_y" o

f

s orts in

a s s e s sin_g the _pote ntial o_{f p}ol ic_{y i}nte r v e ntio n s to

m

a n a_ge the ef fe cts of s_pr aw l in_{g l}a nd u s e

pat te r n s. D e c e ntr al iz e

d

e

m

p loy

m

e nt a n

d

ho u s

i

ng pat te r n s

, l i

m

ite

d

tr a n sit s e r vic e,

r elativ e_{l y w} e ak r e_{g i}o n a_{l g}o v e r n a n c e

, a nd

j

u risd ictio n al e xtern al itie s c o

m

b in e to pr e s e nt

m

a n_{y d i f fi} c ultie s to _pol ic_y

m

ake r s

_i

n r edu cin_g a uto

m

o

b

i le

d

e_pe n

d

e n c_y a nd

m

ob i le s o u r c e

e

m

is s_io n s. Fu rthe r

m

o r e, ind ivi du a

l m

u nici pal itie s a r e l i m ited in their pol icy

m

ak ing

fl e x i

b

i l it_{y d}u e to state _pr e e

m

in e n c e o v e r lo c a_{l g}o v e r n

m

e nt in N ort h Ca r ol in a. No rth

Ca r o

l i

n a is a D i l lo n '

s Rule state; thu s, lo c a

l

go v e r n

m

e nts mu st pu r s u e e n a

b

l ing

m

e sta

b

l ishe

d

le_ga_{l p}r e c ede nt w ith in the state. T he bui lt e n vir o n

m

e nt cha r a cte ristic s of the

Tria n_{g l}e ar e e

m

b le

m

atic of

m

a n_y u rba n a_{g g l}o

m

e r atio n s a c r o s s the n atio n ; thu s, th is

"

u rba n labo r ato r_y

"

pr e s e nts an o_{p p}o rtu nit_y to in v e st_{i g}ate the c o n n e ctio n s a

m

o n_g u rba n

fr o

m

, air qu al ity, a nd he alth ef fe cts of hu

m

a n e xpo s u r e to pa rtic ulate

m

at te r fr o

m

both a n

a c ade

m

ic a nd a _pol ic_y-

m

_ak i_n

g pe r s_pe ctive.

T

h

e Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

ode

l

T he Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

odel

(

T R

M )

is u s ed to _pr ed ict tr a n s_po rtatio n n etwo rk f lows

thr o u_{g h}o ut the r e_{g i}o n T he

m

odel, c al i br ated via ho u s ehol d tr a n spo rtatio n s u r v eys,

pr ed icts tr a n s_po rtatio n de

m

a nd betw e e n 2,6 7 8 spatial l y d is c r ete tr a n spo rtatio n a n alys e s

z o n e s

(

T A Zs

₎

w it

h

in the Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n. T A Zs a r e ge n e r al l y ag g lo

m

e r atio n s of c e n s u s

s e v e r al c e n s u s b lo cks, a

l

tho ug h "

s_pe cial u s e

"

T A Zs

m

a_y

b

e a s s

m

a

l

l a s a sin_{g l}e _{p l}a c e of

e

m

_{p l}o_y

m

e nt Fo r

m

al l y, the T R

M

is de s c ri bed a s a "

tr ad itio n al

f

o u r-_st_e

p model w ith s o

m

e

e nha n c ed fe atu r e s de si gn ed to

m

e et the e v olvin_g state of the _pr a ctic e in

m

ulti-

m

odal

tr a v el

d

e

m

a nd

m

odehn_g"

₍

Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

o

d

el Se r v ic e Bu r e a u, 2 0 1 1, 3

)

T he

tr ad itio n al ste_ps of a tr a n s_po rtatio n

d

e

m

a n

d m

odel a r e 1

₎

tr_{i p g}e n e r atio n _; 2

₎

tr_{i p}

d

i

str i

b

utio n ; 3

)

m

ode c

h

oic e; a n

d

4

)

tri p a s si gn

m

e nt. T he T R

M

fo r e c a sts both pa s s e n ge r

a nd fr ei g ht tr af fi c in the A

M

_pe ak, the P

M

pe ak, a nd al l othe r ti

m

e s

(

i e , of f

-pe ak

₎

.

Pa s s e n_ge r tri ps a r e fo r e c a st fo r _priv ate v eh icle s, pub l ic tr a n sit, a nd n o n

-

m

_{oto r}i_{z e}d

m

_o

d

_{e s} ,

in clud in_{g b i}c_ycle a n_{d p}ede stria n tri ps Priv ate v eh icle s a r e fu rthe r d i f fe r e ntiated into

sin_{g l}e o c c u_pa n c_y v eh icle s, 2

-pe r s o n o c c u_pa n c_y v eh ic_le s, a nd 3+ pe r s o n o c c upa n cy

v e

h

icle s Pu

_b

l ic tr a n sit

i

s d i f

f

e r e ntiated into lo c al

b

u s, e xpr e s s bu s a n

d

r ai l; r ai l is o nl y

s

i m

ulated in f iitu r e s c e n a r

i

o s w ith in the T R

M

. Ac c e s s

m

o

d

e s fo r pu

b l

ic tr a n sit in clu

d

e

wal k, pa rk a nd ri de, a nd k is s a nd ride. Fr ei g ht tri ps a r e e sti

m

ated fo r a uto s, p ic

k

tr u c

k

s. T he

m

odel in clude s a n ite r ativ e fe ed ba ck

m

e cha nis

m

to e n s u r e a c c u r ate

c o n v e r_ge n c e

₍

Tria n_{g l}e Re_{g i}o n al

M

o del Servic e Bu r e a u , 2 0 1 1

)

T he T R

M

is e x e c uted

w ith in Tr a n sC A D 5 0 bu i l d 1 8 8 0 T he c o

m

_{p l}ete T R

M

str u ctu r e

i

s _pr e s e nte

d i

n F i gu r e 3.

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