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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
“
In today’s globalised setting,
the challenge of maintaining security is no longer limited to
the traditional foreign-policy and military tools of the
nation-state, and security and insecurity are no longer considered as
dependent only upon geopolitics and military strength,
but rather are also seen to depend upon social, economic,
environmental, ethical models of analysis and tools of action“
From a review on J. Peter Burgess (Editor) The Routledge Handbook
of New Security Studies Routledge Handbook, 2010
New Security Studies
Rachel Suissa (Ph.D)
University of Haifa, Israel
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Introductory discussion
New Security studies as Shifts in Four Key Areas
(Based on
J. Peter Burgess
(Editor) The Routledge Handbook of New
Security Studies Routledge Handbooks, 2010)
z
New security concepts
– Hybrid Threats, civilizational security,
Comprehensive Security Approach etc.
z
New security subjects
– Biopolitics of security, Financial
Security, Security as Ethics etc.
z
New security objects
- Environmental Security,Food Security,
Cyber-Security, Pandemic Security etc.
z
New security practices
– Migration and Insecurity, Security
Technologies, Commercial Security Practices etc.
z
FOCUS PROJECT elaborates all these shifts in critical new
security studies against backdrop of EU Global role in new
security challenges raised in Scenarios for 2035
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Introductory discussion (cont.)
The status of new security studies as an epistemological
process:A Traditional Process versus Scenarios Process
z
New security Studies can develop as a positivist, interpretivist or critical
processes that share four standard criteria to disciplined inquiry: internal
validity, external validity, reliability, and objectivity.
z
New Security Studies emerge from Scenarios within constructivist–
interpretive paradigm with different research criteria such as:
z
Plausibility:
The selected scenarios must fall within the limits of what
might conceivably happen.
z
Differentiation
:
Each scenario constructed should be sufficiently different
for it not to be construed as variations of a base case.
z
Consistency:
The logical reasoning contained in a scenario must not have
any in-built inconsistency that would undermine its credibility.
z
Decision-making utility
:
Each scenario should contribute sufficient
insights into the future to bear on the decision focus selected.
Decision-making utility is an important criterion: Even though the precise visions or
scenarios do not come to pass, the very fact of constructing them can
influence individual behavior and collective decision and policy making.
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Challenge:
The scenarios should challenge the organization’s
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Scenarios as stimulating new security studies
A simulation of
"real document”
z
First Annual Report on the
implementation of the EU
Internal Security Strategy
(ISS)
Communication from the
Commission to the
European Parliament
and the Council,
Released in Brussels,
25.11.2011m
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
A simulation of
"real document” (cont.)
PRIORITIES and A New Security Concept
• Disruption of international
criminal networks
z
Prevention of
terrorism
and addressing radicalization and
recruitment
z
Raising the levels of security for citizens and business in
cyberspace
z
Strengthening security through
border management
z
Increasing
Europe‘s resilience
to crises and disasters
z
New security concept
:
Supra-National Society Resilience
instead of National Resilience – the sum of 27 MS national
resilience is not Europe's resilience
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
A simulation of
"real document” (cont.)
THREAT AND RISK ASSESSMENT and A New Security Practice
zEuropol•Eurojust•Frontex•EU Joint Situation Center(SitCen)•others
New security practice
-
Security technologies as an indicator to
intelligence communities absolute and relative advantage:
how security technologies practices affect tensions between EU
and Member State intelligence agendas;
• tensions between EU, NATO, UN, etc. intelligence agencies;
• tensions between the principles of "need to know" and "need to
share" information;
• challenges to the concept of pooling and sharing of intelligence
capabilities following the complex picture of external and internal
threats and related responsibilities.
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
A simulation of
"real document” (cont.)
EMERGING THREATS and a
New security Object
z
Increasing reliance on
internet technology
, with
increasing vulnerability
z
Reduced resources to combat internal security
threats due to the ongoing
economic crisis
z
Impact of the
external dimension of security
z
New security Object
– Cyber-Security
Interdependence and deterrence in cyberwarfare –
"soft“ - "hard" power in managing cyber as an
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
A simulation of
"real document” (cont.)
Coherence between the internal and external
dimensions of security and a New Security Subject
z
Joint meetings of the Standing Committee on operational
cooperation on internal security (COSI) and the Political and
Security Committee (PSC)
z
Enhancing ties between the Common Security and Defence
Policy (CSDP) and Justice and Home Affairs (JHA), with a
focus on closer cooperation between CSDP civilian missions
and JHA
z
Cooperation between CSDP police missions and Europol
z
New security subject
– Security as Ethics– Justice and Home
Affairs special tasks in harmonising between the internal and
external dimensions of security (confidence building, political
interests and values balance etc., demilitarization of Petersberg
tasks etc.)
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios - Mapping Research to
a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”)
FOCUS New Security Studies Roadmap
FOCUS New Security Studies Roadmap is:
z
Beyond the agenda required in the First Annual Report on the implementation
of the EU Internal Security Strategy (ISS)
z
Based on the Comprehensive Approach
that:
-
Reflects the cross-border and cross-sector nature of current security threats
and challenges as well as the complexity of instruments and objectives in
security policy along the internal-external continuum.
-
Focuses on the holistic nature and broad tradeoffs involving societal goals to
increase the security of the EU and its citizenry as a whole.
-
Civil-military interaction plays an important role. Because FOCUS is a civil
security research project that primarily addresses exogenous
(not external)
roles of the EU as a comprehensive security provider to its citizens, the
project does not investigate the defence of strategic EU or Member States’
interests outside their borders. However, FOCUS explores civil-military
interaction to meet challenges and threats abroad before they reach the
Union.
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Coherence and Consistency of the Internal Framework of the EU as a
Comprehensive Security Provider (based on FOCUS D7.1-PAGE 50)
EU Capabilities – A Multidisciplinary Theme
Sociology
Citizen Resilience,
Societal Acceptance
Psychology
Politics of fear,
Cultural Preparedness
Political
Sciences
Decision making,
Processes &
Institutions
POLICY STUDIES
Planning Tools for
Civil Security
TECHNOLOGY
Increase of critical
(inter-)dependencies
between technologies;
Dependency on
information &
communication
technology;
ECONOMICS
Coherence of Policies & Resources;
Asymmetric capabilities MS & the EU
EU
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FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
A Holistic Vulnerability Assessment
Interdisciplinary Practice
Disciplines and Vulnerability (from Mcentire Disciplines, Disasters and Emergency management 2006)
Discipline View(s) of Vulnerability Recommendation(s)
Geography Vulnerability is determined by the use of hazard-prone areas
Land-use planning that takes into account hazards to reduce risk
Meteorology Vulnerability is due to a lack of advanced warning of
severe weather Acquisition, creation and effective use of warning systems Engineering Vulnerability occurs when structures and
infrastructure cannot withstand the forces of hazards
Design and construction of buildings and infrastructure that promotes disaster resistance
Anthropology Vulnerability emanates from constraining values, attitudes and practices
Alter attitudes to discourage risk-taking practices and susceptibility
Economics Vulnerability is related to poverty and results in an inability to prevent, prepare for or recover from a disaster
Improve the distribution of wealth and purchase insurance to minimize losses and promote resilience
Sociology Vulnerability is a product of inaccurate assumptions about disaster behavior and is related to race, gender, age, disability, etc.
Understand behavioral patterns in disasters and pay attention to needs of special populations
Psychology Vulnerability is a function of overlooking or minimizing risk and not being able to cope emotionally with stress and/or loss
Help people to recognize risk and provide crisis counseling to enable resilience
Epidemiology Vulnerability is susceptibility to disease or injury and is related to malnutrition and other health factors
Improve provision of public health/emergency medical care before, during and after disasters
Environmental Science Vulnerability is proneness to environmental degradation, which may change weather patterns and produce long-term disasters
Conserve natural resources, protect green space areas, and ensure that debris management is performed in an environmentally conscious manner
Political Science Vulnerability is produced by the political structure and incorrect decision making
Alter structure of political system and educate politicians and legislators about disasters
Public Administration Vulnerability results from misguided laws, the failure to implement policies
Strengthen response and recovery capabilities through preparedness measures, improved
