Too much of a good thing: are we facing an oversupply crisis?
The conference „OFFICE BUILDINGS IN POLAND 2013”
23-24 October 2013, Warsaw, Hotel Marriott
Introduction
The Polish office property sector navigated the 2009-2010 global economic slowdown relatively smoothly. After a short period of supply drought, developers turned bullish about our market’s potential and resumed the previously suspended projects, launching many new ones as well. According to data from Colliers International consultancy, as much as one million square metres of new office space can hit the Polish market in 2013-2014. But the economy is slowing down and external demand is also a bit lower than expected. Will our office market be able to absorb such a large supply of new space in the coming years?
23
thOctober
9.00 – 9.30 Registration of guests. Breakfast.
9:30 – 10.00 Waiting for a flood – an introductory lecture
In the coming two years, office markets in Warsaw and regional cities will rapidly expand by about 20 percent. The macroeconomic indicators for the slowing economy do not inspire optimism, we can’t really count on foreign investors either. Will such a surge in supply turn into an oversupply crisis?
Special Guest: Kevin Turpin, Head of Research for CEE, Jones Lang LaSalle
10.00 – 11.15 It’s ok, but for how long? A summary of the current situation in the market – discussion panel
2012 was a good year for the Polish office market. In Warsaw alone, demand for office space exceeded 600,000 sq. m, 6 percent more than a year before. Regional cities recorded even better results – they leased 354,000 sq. m, or 18.5 percent more than in 2011. What is the outlook for this year? Will the good run continue?
The metropolitan office market – how much longer can its growth continue?
A summary of demand and supply in the largest regional markets: in Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Poznań and Łódź. The current levels of asking and effective rents and projected price trends.
Moderator: Radosław Górecki, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Eurobuild CEE Panelists:
Richard Aboo, Partner, Head of Office Department, Cushman&Wakefield Tomasz Czuba, Head of Office Leasing, Jones Lang LaSalle
Rafał Mazurczak, Director of the Office and Hotel Department, Echo Investment S.A. Arkadiusz Rudzki, Leasing and Asset Management Director, Skanska Property Poland
11.15 – 11.35 Comparison of Polish (or CEE with focus on Poland) and selected Western European office markets with regard to yields / price levels as well as dominant players active on investment market? Is there a room for further stock and rental growth in relation to more developed / mature markets?
Presentation: Christophe Pineau, RICS Member, Head of the International Research Department, BNP Paribas Real Estate 11:35-11:45Financing of office buildings.
Presentation: Iwona Załuska, President, Upper Finance Consulting 11.45 – 12.05 Coffee and tea break
12.05 – 13.20 BPO and what after? – discussion panel
The first 5-year lease agreements with large tenants from the BPO sector are about to expire. Some are likely to extend them, but other tenants may choose to move their business to cheaper locations in the east and south of Europe. What are the developers and city authorities doing to keep them and will they get along after their possible departure?
Internal demand in regional cities – the current state and outlook.
Promoting cities and facilitating business in the largest regional office markets – an overview. What else can cities do to attract new investors and keep „the old ones”?
Moderator: Wiktor Doktór, CEO, Pro Progressio Foundation Panelists:
Daniel Bienias, Tenant Representation Office Department, CBRE Dariusz Domański, Director, AIG/Lincoln
Paweł Panczyj, Managing Director at Associated of Business Service Leaders in Poland (ABSL) Marcin Piątkowski, Director, Invest in Pomerania
13.20 – 13.30 Bioclimatic facade – an unnecessary expense or necessity?
Presentation: Aleksander Tymiński, Sales Engineer, Somfy Sp. z o.o. Expert, Polish Association of Employers - Blinds and Gates Producers
13.30 – 14.30 The secret art of renegotiating agreements – when and how to begin renegotiations with a tenant to keep him in our building? – a presentation
Expecting a surge in supply of new office spaces in the coming years, owners and managers should as soon as possible begin renewal renegotiations with tenants whose lease agreements are about to expire. What to offer to make them stay in our project?
Are we already looking at a tenant’s market?
When classic incentives are no longer enough – new trends in the area of bonuses and incentives. A bit about environmental certificates – can they be useful when negotiating agreements? Presentation: Sylwester Kret, Counsel, Salans FMC SNR Denton Oleszczuk sp. k
14.30 – 15.30 Lunch break
15.30 – 15.40 Operational effective solutions for HVAC and support of LEED, DGNB, BREEAM i EU Green Building certification procedures.
Presentation: Andrzej Romanowski, System Solutions Sales Manager, TROX Austria GmbH
15.40 – 16.55 Preferences of investors: long lease agreements, a new building or the option to quickly exit a project? – discussion panel
Renewed demand for Polish office buildings as an investment product in recent years is a result of the search for “safe havens” for international capital in the post-crisis economic reality. While investors from the Far East and Arab countries may treat our market as a long-term investment, funds from Western countries value the possibility to quickly exit a project in the case of liquidity problems on their home turf. What projects have a chance for a quick change of ownership?
The current criteria for making purchase decisions by investment funds in the Polish office market. Do investment funds really require environmental certificates?
Examples of the most spectacular transactions from the last 12 months.
Moderator: Przemysław Błaszkiewicz, Director, Valuation and Advisory Services, Colliers International Panelists:
Mirosław Januszko, MRICS Vice President Chief Investment Officer, Peakside Polonia Management Sp. z o.o., Polonia Property Funds
Joanna Kowalska-Szymczak, Investment Director, Kulczyk Silverstein Properties Sp. z o.o. Jakub Sagan, President, ECI
20:00 – 02:00 Banquet, Jasna 24
24
thOctober
9.30 – 10.00 Registration of guests. Breakfast.
10.00 – 10.30 Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Ukraine – Poland’s rivals in the struggle for tenants from the BPO sector. Where are they better than us, what are our advantages? – an introductory lecture
In recent years, Poland has been hugely popular among investors from the BPO sector, particularly in the sector of professional services, such as accounting centres or R&D centres. But the key parameter in the BPO business is the level of wages, and these are much lower in the new EU countries and other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Ukraine. In addition, some countries are upgrading the skills of their workers, focusing on certain specializations, like Bulgaria and Ukraine, who are developing IT services. Where are our competitors better than us, and where does Poland maintain its advantage?
Special Guest: Damian Harrington, Director of Research in Eastern Europe, Colliers International
10.30 – 11.45 What projects will banks readily put up money for? – discussion panelThe slump in the sector of financing office investments continues – it can hardly be said that banks fiercely compete for new developer projects. It is still necessary for developers to sign pre-lease agreements for at least 30 percent of the planned space, banks grant loans only to reputed companies whose projects are “market hits”. What kind of experience do you need to join this elite group? Or perhaps there are other ways than bank credit?
The current criteria for granting bank loans for developing new office projects. The methods of risk assessment used by financial institutions.
Developer bonds: opportunities, procedures, risk.
Moderator: Maciej Goniszewski, Editor in Chief, Gazeta Bankowa Panelists:
Marek Kowalski, Director of Property Finance Department, BNP Paribas Bank Marek Paliświat, Financial Director, Torus
Tomasz Tondera, Senior Investment Partner, Griffin Group
Monika Trytek, Director of Property Finance Department, FM Bank PBP S.A 11.45 – 11:55 Effective power solutions for office buildings,
Presentation: Szymon Skobel, Sales Director, PKP Energetyka PKP Energetyka 11.55 – 12.10 Coffee and tea break
12.10 – 13.25 Airport Cities – business districts in the vicinity of airports. Is the Polish market ripe for them yet? – presentation/discussion panel
Locating business districts in the vicinity of airports, far from city centres is becoming increasingly popular in Europe. Following in London’s footsteps are cities such as Stockholm or Belgrade, and the first signs of this trend can be seen in our own backyard as well. In Warsaw, many new office projects, in particular the so-called business parks, are emerging near the Chopin airport, the authorities in Gdańsk have recently pledged to create a similar district. Is Poland a market mature enough for this idea to work?
Access to the centre – a devil not so black?
Can Airport Cities be created without the involvement of city authorities? Moderator:Tomasz Buras, Dyrektor Działu Powierzchni Birowych w Savills Polska Panelist:
Grzegorz Bykowski, Vice Presindent of the Board, Poznan Airport Peter Chatfield, Commercial Director, SwedeCenter
Jacek Luzar, Head of Marketing & Sales Department, UBM Polska Sp. z o.o.
Aleksandra Matuszewska, Manager of Analyses and Strategic Projects Division in Bureau of Strategy and Development at Polish Airports SOE (PPL)
13.25 – 13.35 Lighting and acoustic standard as an added value for a tenant Presentation:
Radosław Buczkowski, Head of Lighting Designers Team in Office and Industry Segment, Philips Lighting Polska Magdalena Szubert, Concept Developer Manager, Ecophon Saint-Gobain
13.35 – 14.35 Telework, or how to adapt modern office space to the realities of the current labour market and the development of new technologies – a presentation
The spread of telecommuting poses new challenges for all the players in the office market – developers, managers and tenants. And it’s not just about how to arrange office space – thanks to posting employees to work outside the headquarters, a company can develop without increasing the occupied office space. Is telework something to be afraid of, or to embrace as quickly as possible?
In which industries will telework be developing fastest?
Hot desks, or something else than a classic office setup and open space. Modern communication solutions to facilitate telework.
Moderator: Bogusz Parzyszek, Operational Lead (President) - Workplace Solutions Sp. z o.o. Panelists:
Adam Domański, Deputy Director, Head of Real Estate and Investment Projects, Logistics Department, BRE Bank S.A. Zbigniew Kostrzewa, Lead Architect, In Design
Anna Kot, Head of Office Agency, Jones Lang LaSalle
Szymon Wojciechowski, Architect, President, APA Wojciechowski Sp. z o.o.
14:35 – 14:45 Creating the perfect comfort and indoor climate in modern office buildings. Presentation: Andrzej Skrzypczak, Country Sales Manager, Rockfon|Rockwool Polska Sp. z o.o. 14.45 – 15.45 Lunch break
15.45 – 16.45 Not only Class A - can offices of lower standard and location compete with new projects given the current market supply? – a presentation
With an expected surge in new office spaces, owners and managers of older office buildings of lower standard may have reasons to be concerned. Are they really facing a mass exodus of tenants to new buildings of high standard and lower rent? And perhaps it makes sense to raze everything and build from scratch?
A general overhaul as a way to raise the attractiveness of an office building. How to do it wisely? Raze it to the ground and put it up from scratch – when does it pay off?
Where new buildings will never beat the older ones – marketing advantages of lower standard facilities which can be used to gain tenants.
Presentation: Konrad Heidinger, Consultant - Research & Consultancy, CBRE sp. z o. o. 16.45 – 17.15 Business mixer and the conclusion of the conference
