A S I A P A C I F I C C A P I T A L M A R K E T S O V E R V I E W
2 0 2 1 Q 1
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SPOTLIGHT ON
AUSTRALIA
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 1
James Shepherd
Head of Business Development Services
Greater China
[email protected]
Catherine Chen
Head of Capital Markets Research
Greater China
[email protected]
1.
INTRODUCTIONS
2.
ASIA PACIFIC MARKET OVERVIEW
3.
AUSTRALIA MARKET OVERVIEW
4.
Q & A
AGENDA
Josh Cullen
International Director
Head of Capital Markets
-Australia & New Zealand
[email protected]
John Sears
Head of Research
Australia & New Zealand
[email protected]
Gordon Marsden
Regional Director
Asia Pacific Capital Markets
[email protected]
Dennis Yeo
Head, Investor Services
Asia Pacific
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 2
ASIA PACIFIC IN RECOVERY AND EXPANSION
Moody’s Global Business Cycle Status (March 2021)
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Mainland China
Vietnam
Taiwan
Expansion:
Australia
Hong Kong SAR
India
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Recovery:
Expansion Recovery At risk Recession2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 3
GDP GROW TH OUTLOOK
Strong growth in India and Philippines in the next decade
Source: Moody’s Analytics, updated on Feb 4th, 2020
1.9
5.3
5.0
1.7
2.4
4.9
2.9
1.2
2.5
4.8
2.2
2.8
6.5
7.4
(12) (10) (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10Taiwan Vietnam China South Korea
New Zealand
Indonesia Australia Japan Singapore Malaysia Hong Kong SAR
Thailand India Philippines
2010-2019 Average GDP Growth 2020 GDP Growth 2021-2030 Average GDP Growth
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 4
TRANSACTION VOLUME BY MARKET
Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of on May 6th, 2021
ASIA PACIFIC TRANSACTION VOLUME (EXCLUDING LAND)
Q1 2021
TOTAL TRANSACTION VOLUME (EXCLUDING LAND)
US$ bn
0
2
4
6
8
Guangzhou
Osaka
Shanghai
Beijing
Singapore
Shenzhen
Sydney
Hong Kong
Seoul
Tokyo
2021 Q1
2020 Q1
Transaction Volume (US$ bn)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Q1 2021
Japan
Mainland China
South Korea
Australia
Hong Kong SAR
India
Taiwan
Singapore
Others
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 5
CROSS -BORDER TRANSACTIONS
Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of on April 28th, 2021
WITHIN VS. OUTSIDE APAC
TOP SOURCES OF CROSS BORDER
TOP TARGETS OF CROSS BORDER CAPITAL
CAPITAL
Increasing proportion of investors based outside APAC
60% 51% 53% 43% 44% 40% 49% 47% 57% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 2021 Within Asia Pacific Outside Asia Pacific
0 1 2 3 Singapore India China Australia Japan
Transaction Volume (US$ bn)
2021 Q1 2020 Q1
0 2 4
Germany Hong Kong SAR Singapore Canada United States
Transaction Volume (US$ bn)
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 6
ACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN INVESTORS
Cross-border capital flows (last 12 months*)
Japan: 8.9b USD +42%
Source: Real Capital Analytics Feb 9th, 2021
Based on deals over 100 million USD, excluding land or development sites.
Europe
North America
India: 4.1b USD +31%
Singapore: 4.1b USD +31%
Australia:
3.8b USD +312%
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 7
MOST LIQUID MARKETS IN ASIA PACIFIC
Increasing investment in industrial and retail asset
Source: Real Capital Analytics on May 6th, 2021
Billion USD Office 45% Industrial 25% Retail 21% Hotel 5% Apartment 4% Seniors Housing 0.2%
2021
Q1
Office 44% Industrial 19% Retail 16% Hotel 6% Apartment 15% Seniors Housing 0.1%2020
Q1
0 2 4 Australia China Japan Thousands -49% -24% +57%OFFICE
0 0.5 1 1.5 Singapore Japan -42% x3.9 times Billion USDMULTIFAMILY
+41% 0 1 2 Australia South Korea Japan +52% +4% Billion USDLOGISTICS
0 1 2 Australia South Korea China Thousands +2% Billion USDRETAIL
-41% +139%2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 8
60%
40%
Single sector
Multi-sector
41% 30% 15% 14% Core Value added Opportunity Mixed strategies 73 70 69 72 69 76 8 6 10 9 7 3 18 21 18 15 22 20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Increase Decrease No Change Undecided
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR CORE A ND INDUSTRIAL ASSET
ANREV Capital Raising Survey 2021
Capital raised for APAC non-listed real estate funds by sector strategy
Capital raised for APAC non-listed real estate funds by country strategy
Capital raised for APAC non-listed vehicles by investment style
Expectations for capital raising activity over the next two years (Global)
63% 37%
Single country Multi-country
31 3 29 Japan China Australia 50 8 Healthcare Residential Office Industrial
2 0 2 1 M AY
AUSTRALIAN CRE
MARKET OVERVIEW
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 10
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC GROW TH
Growth is bouncing in the short term, real GDP annual growth forecasts
Source: Deloitte Access Economics; Cushman & Wakefield
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
GDP GROWTH, Y/Y %
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 11
SENTIMENT REBOUNDS
Business conditions and consumer sentiment
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute; NAB; Cushman & Wakefield
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Business conditions, record high Consumer sentiment, 10 year high Business conditions Consumer sentiment Consumer sentiment (rhs) Business conditions (lhs)2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 12
ECONOMIC GROW TH OUTLOOK
T he long-term outlook is also solid, Annual average real growth
Source: Moody’s Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
India
China, People’s Republic of
Australia
United States
Canada
Singapore
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Euro Zone
Korea (Republic of) (South)
Japan
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 13
CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES
Total real estate purchasing activity
Source: Deloitte Access Economics; Cushman & Wakefield
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021YTD
A
$
m
ill
io
n
s
New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide $45.5bn
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 14
CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES
Total real estate purchasing activity
Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield
Office
59%
Retail
14%
Industrial
9%
Other
18%
Office
41%
Retail
19%
Industrial
23%
Other
17%
Q1 2021
Annual Volume
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 15
CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES
Quarterly investment volumes
Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
Q1 2021
Domestic (LHS) Foreign (LHS) Rolling Annual Foreign Investment (RHS)
A
$
m
ill
io
n
s
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 16
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INCOME RETURN TREND
Office, retail & industrial income returns and 10 year government bond yields
Source: MSCI/IPD: RBA; Cushman & Wakefield
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 17
GLOBAL YIELDS
Prime Office Cap Rates (%)
Source: MSCI/IPD: RBA; Cushman & Wakefield
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Max*
Min*
20Q4 (current)
19Q4
APAC/China
Americas
Europe
(*max/min refer to 2007-2020 Q4)
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Canberra
CBD OFFICE VACANCY
Vacancy moved higher in 2020, vacancy range since 1990
Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 19
CBD OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY
Office markets have softened over 2020
Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield
Perth
-45,098 sqm 12m Net Absorption
20.0%
Vacancy
~$300 sqm Net Effective Rent
~50% Net Incentive
Brisbane
-9,807
sqm 12m Net Absorption
13.6%
Vacancy
$445
sqm Gross Effective Rent
41% Gross Incentive
Melbourne
22,397 sqm 12m Net Absorption
8.2%
Vacancy
$395
Net Effective Rent
39% Net Incentive
Sydney
-113,346
sqm 12m Net Absorption
8.6%
Vacancy
$910
sqm Gross Effective Rent
33% Gross Incentive
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 20
RETAIL TURNOVER GROW TH
Moving annual turnover growth rate
Source: ABS; Cushman & Wakefield
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
High CPI & stock bubbleHousing boom
Recessions Asian crisis
Tech boom & wreck
Housing/credit boom
Petrol spikes & Int rate hikes
Fiscal stimulus
GFC
Euro crisis & carbon tax Slowing income growth SE Aust. Housing boom COVID-19
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 21
ONLINE SALES
Online sales as a percentage of total sales
Source: NAB; ABS; Cushman & Wakefield
Online
share Feb
2020, 9.4
87.1
Increase during
pandemic, 3.5
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 22
RETAIL TRANSACTION VOLUMES
Annual investment volumes
Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield
New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021YTD
A
$
m
ill
io
n
s
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021YTD
A
$
bi
lli
on
s
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 23
Q1 2021
Source: ABS; NAB; Nearmap; Cushman & Wakefield
1. DECLINE OF MANUFACTURING
Transaction volume by market
2. RISE OF E-COMMERCE & TECHNOLOGY
3. SUBURBAN INFILL: E.G. SOUTH SYDNEY: 2009 TO 2019
– INDUSTRIAL TO APARTMENTS
MANUFACTURING SHARE OF ECONOMIC OUTPUT
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 P e rce n t o f to ta l re ta il t ra d e 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 24
INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTION VOLUMES
Annual investment volumes
Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield
New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021YTD
A
$
m
ill
io
n
s
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021YTD
A
$
bi
lli
on
s
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 25
SUMMARY
01
02
03
04
05
Economy – bouncing strongly, COVID risks
Investment – supported by economy and low interest rates
Office – suffered in 2020, resetting in 2021
Retail – adapting to structural change
2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 26
Q&A
Please click on the Q&A icon on the top right hand corner
of your window to submit your questions.
PANELISTS:
Gordon Marsden
Regional Director
Asia Pacific Capital Markets
[email protected]
MODERATOR:
Catherine Chen
Director, Research
Greater China
[email protected]
Dennis Yeo
Head, Investor Services
Asia Pacific
[email protected]
Josh Cullen
International Director
Head of Capital Markets
-Australia & New Zealand
[email protected]
THANK YOU
ABOUT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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