So close yet so far. The bumpy road to autonomous driving.

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(1)So close yet so far. The bumpy road to autonomous driving.. more ed in ts? t s e r Inte ve insigh si orm exclu DR Platf our A Visit. Automotive Disruption Radar #10 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 1.

(2) Roland Berger’s Automotive Disruption Radar is 10! Now covering 23 markets, this latest edition marks a major milestone in our twice-yearly tracking of 26 disruption indicators, and highlights what a valuable tool the ADR has become. The new results show just how far the industry has shifted since ADR1 in January 2017, particularly around electrification. For example, the share of electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles sold as a percentage of total global vehicle sales has jumped from 1.5% in 2017 to 6.9% in HY1 2021; the number of charging stations per 100 km has more than quintupled to 2.8; and the number of cities with some form of restrictions on ICE vehicles has leapt from 88 to 155. Overall, the global average country score has soared by 25%.. Cover photo Thomas Winz/Getty Images. But some things never change. The Netherlands again tops the ranking, as it has on several occasions, with a highest-ever score of 87. China comes next with 85, followed by Sweden and Singapore. All have often featured in the top 5. Meanwhile, Norway leads the way among ADR10’s five new additions, going straight into the top 5. We look in detail at the new entrants’ results.. 2. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. More generally, ADR10 reveals that the Covid-19 pandemic, while damaging to the industry, continues to have a positive impact on disruptive technologies. It also shows that the electric revolution and developments in autonomous driving continue to evolve, albeit at a slower pace. We assess the latest developments in both.. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 3.

(3) Under the hood: How the new entrants performed The ADR started in 2017 with 10 countries in its scope, mostly key automotive markets such as the US, Germany and Japan.. New additions followed in almost every subsequent report, culminating in ADR10’s intake of five new entrants. This gives a new total global scope of 23 countries. With two perennial ADR performers (the Netherlands and China) again taking the top spots in ADR10, in this edition we focus instead on the performance of the new entrants – Norway, Israel, Brazil, Thailand and Indonesia.. No change at the top: The Netherlands again tops the rankings, with a now familiar pack following closely behind Overall score as percentage of maximum score. 68% 66% 64% 62%. Netherlands Singapore. 2. China. 3. Sweden. New 5. Norway. 60% China. South Korea. China. 58%. Global. Sweden 56% South Korea. 54% 52% 50%. Global Netherlands. 48% 46%. South Korea. 44% Global 42%. China, Singapore Germany, India France, USA UK. Singapore Sweden Netherlands UK Germany, India Spain France USA Russia UAE Italy, Japan. Global Germany. Saudi Arabia. UK France Spain UAE Italy, USA India, Japan Russia Belgium. New 11. Israel. 13. USA. 16. UAE. 20. Canada. New 22. Thailand. Netherlands. 1. Singapore. 4. South Korea. 6. UK Germany Spain France. 7 8 9 10. Italy. 11. Belgium India Russia. 13 15 16. Japan Brazil Saudi Arabia. 18 19 New 20. Indonesia. 22 New. Canada Belgium. 40%. XX Country ranking. Japan. Score evolution vs. last edition. 38% 36%. ADR 1. (Jan 17). ADR6. (July 19). ADR8. (Sept 20). ADR 10 (July 21). Source: Roland Berger. 4 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 5.

(4) #11 ISRAEL. Growing all the time: The original 10 ADR countries have been joined by a further 13 nations since 2017. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 10. 14. 16. 18. 23. China. Belgium. Spain. Canada. Brazil. France. Italy. Saudi Arabia. Indonesia. Germany . Russia. United Arab Emirates. India. Sweden. Japan. Israel Norway Thailand. Netherlands Singapore South Korea United Kingdom United States. Israel is a well known hub for startups and high-tech industries. However, as its technologies will be used globally, ADR does not fully reflect its strengths in this area. But the country still performs well in a handful of indicators. For example, the ADR customer survey reveals high usage of mobility apps, with 80% of respondents using one at least once a week compared to a global average of 55%. In general, however, Israel is distinctly average in its indicator scoring, achieving middle-of-the-road scores in legislation for AVs, test road availability and interest in EVs/PHEVs, for example. That said, no one indicator significantly lags behind the average, giving the country a strong base to build on.. #19 BRAZIL The addition of Brazil gives the ADR its first glimpse of the automotive situation in South America. The developing nation ranks in the bottom third of the ADR10 listing, which is of little surprise considering the special conditions required for electric autonomous driving. Even so, it is interesting to note that even in a country with almost no charging infrastructure (just a few hundred units), interest in EVs is at a global average level: Some 60% of potential buyers are considering purchasing an EV/PHEV as their next car.. #5 NORWAY. #22 THAILAND AND INDONESIA. Norway makes a great debut in the ADR. But its results highlight that while a strong performance in the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is an important factor in achieving a high ADR score, it cannot be relied upon alone. The Nordic nation leads the way when it comes to EV/plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales as a percentage of total vehicle sales, with a huge share of 79%. Only Sweden (39%) gets close to this, with third-placed Germany down at 19%. It also performs well in terms of share of EV/PHEVs models in the overall portfolio of models available, with a share of 48%, versus 44% in South Korea and 43% in the Netherlands. But Norway is sorely lacking in other areas. For example, its regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles (AVs) lags behind many countries, and it offers few test roads for new autonomous driving technologies. For this reason, Norway’s debut ends in a ‘fast follower’ position.. The story in these two Southeast Asian nations is almost the same, with both positioning themselves as hubs in the EV ecosystem. Thailand is a step ahead, with investment steadily flowing in. For example, a PHEV factory was opened in 2019 and USD 50 million has been invested in charging infrastructure. Most recently, the Taiwanese electronics firm Foxconn announced plans to produce up to 200,000 EVs a year in the country in a joint venture with the Thai oil and gas company PTT, beginning in 2023/4. In addition, the country plans to ban ICE sales from 2035 and to reach an EV sales share of 50% by the end of this decade.. Source: Roland Berger. 6 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. In Indonesia, meanwhile, Hyundai Motor and LG Energy Solutions plan to build a battery cell manufacturing site with 10 GWh capacity in Karawang. This will require an investment of around USD 1 billion. The plant is due to open in the first half of 2024 and aims to leverage Indonesia’s significant raw material resources, especially of nickel. While these developments are a clear indication of intention, they are relatively modest. This is reflected in the low rankings of the two countries. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 7.

(5) Nordic wonders: Norway and Sweden lead the way when it comes to electric car sales, but the overall average has also jumped. 2020 ADR8 average. EV/PHEV/FCEV sales as percentage of total vehicle sales. 318. 33. 152. 36. 1,127. 105. 52. 55. 9. 5.8%. 13.0%. 12.2%. 9.8%. 9.8%. 7.8%. 5.7%. 4.1%. 6.9%. 2.9%. South Korea. 15.7%. UK. 19.3%. China. 5.6%. 2.5%. ADR8 (Sept 2020). 2.8% 2.2%. Israel. Italy. Sweden. ADR10 (July 2021). 5.3% 2.9% 1.5% 3.5% 2.7% <1.0%. 3.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% <1.0%. 10.9%. Netherlands. 23.9%. Germany. 55.3%. Norway. 7.2%. 31. Singapore UAE Japan, Brazil, India, Thailand, Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia. 39.6%. Belgium. 79.2%. France. 5.9%. 30 287 27 1 2. USA. 70. Canada. 73. 6.9%. Spain. Sold units ['000]. 2021 ADR10 average. 3.3%. Source: EV volumes, IHS, Roland Berger. 8 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 9.

(6) Electric vehicles – The battle between startups and OEMs hots up. OEMS GO FOR BROKE. ADR9 highlighted the breakthrough made by electric vehicles in 2020, with all electrification indicators showing a significant jump in progress. This trend has continued in 2021, as shown by the results in ADR10. We noted some key figures above, and the following help to underline the rapid shift:. 6.9%. Share of EVs/PHEVs sold as a percentage of total global car sales. 4.6%. 1.0% 2016 (ADR1). Share of potential buyers considering purchasing an EV (global average). The moves by the big OEMs are in line with the results from the ADR10 customer survey. More than 40% or our respondents would like to see sales of ICE vehicle stopped by 2030. Tellingly, however, just 30% think this will actually happen.. The end of ICE: The majority of our survey respondents want to see an end to ICE vehicle sales by 2035. 1.5% 2017 (ADR3). There are several reasons for the pickup in the pace of electrification. As well as the Covid-19 pandemic, the emergence of all-electric market newcomers (such as Tesla) and pressure to reduce emissions are driving the transition from ICE vehicles to EVs. Many traditional OEMs have announced EV quota and/or carbon-reduction targets. The Volkswagen Group, for example, wants 50% of its new cars to be battery electric by 2030, as does BMW (in Europe). Volvo is aiming to be fully electric by the same date. Volkswagen also wants to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.. 2020 (ADR9). 2021 HY (ADR10). When do you think that no new internal combustion engine vehicles will be sold in your country?. When would you like to have no new internal combustion engine vehicles sold in your country?. 100%. 100%. 60% 55%. 11% 12%. 75%. 40%. 16%. 35% Jan 2017 (ADR1). Jan 2018 (ADR3). 9%. Jan 2021 (ADR9). July 2021 (ADR10). 50%. 22%. 8%. 7%. 11%. 10%. 9%. 10%. 15%. 17%. 22%. 22%. 17%. 9% 75%. 2.8. 25%. 6%. Global. City Center. 0.7 2025. Jan 2018 (ADR3). Jan 2021 (ADR9). Source: Roland Berger. 10 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. July 2021 (ADR10). 2030. 2035. 7% 7%. 11%. 12%. 18%. 19%. 22%. 22%. 24%. 24%. 17%. 50%. 21% 25%. 14%. 11% 0%. Jan 2017 (ADR1). 21%. 8%. 11%. 21%. 2.1. 0.5. 19%. 10%. 6%. 20%. Number of charging stations per 100 km of roadway (global average). 12%. 13% 0%. 18-29 years old 2045. 2055. Global Later. City Center. 18-29 years old. Never. Source: RB online survey July 2021: 23,691 participants – Participants by country: Belgium (1,008); Brazil (1,010); Canada (1,020); China (1,014); France (1,014); Germany (1,005); India (1,003); Indonesia (1,016); Israel (1,381); Italy (1,015); Japan (1,018); Netherlands (1,011); Norway (1,053); Russia (1,005); Saudi Arabia (1,008); Singapore (1,018); South Korea (1,012); Spain (1,012); Sweden (1,017); Thailand (1,025); UAE (1,013); UK (1,000); USA (1,013). www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 11.

(7) City limits: Cities in ADR countries are slowly but surely restricting the use of vehicles with internal combustion engines. Charging ahead: South Korea and the Netherlands are now the clear leaders in charging infrastructure density. Change in restrictions on ICE vehicles in urban areas. Number of charging locations per 100 km of roadway. 308. 223 153. 75.2. ADR1 (Jan 2017) ADR10 (July 2021). 21.9. 24 22 20 18 142. 14. 13.6. 16. 9.8. 12 10. 83. Cities with major ban2. Cities with full ICE ban. 1 Ban on vehicles not meeting the latest emission standards (e.g. green badge) or selective actions (e.g. car-free days) 2 Clearing the roads of ICEs over a significant timeframe or low chance of being able to register an ICE vehicle Source: Automotive Disruption Radar, Roland Berger. 12 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 0.0. 0.0. 0.0. 0.1. 0.1. 0.8. 1.0. 1.6. 1.4. 2.7. 2.3. 1.7. 0.8. 0.0. 0. 0. South Korea Netherlands Norway China Belgium Sweden UK Germany UAE Singapore Israel Japan France Spain Italy Canada USA Russia Thailand Brazil India Indonesia Saudi Arabia. 2. Cities without Cities with minor restriction restriction1. 2.6. 2. 13. Cities in scope. 2.7. 4. 4.7. 5.6. 6. 5.2. 8. ADR1 (Jan 2017). ADR10 (July 2021). Source: EV Volumes, desk research, Roland Berger. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 13.

(8) Top 10 selling EVs in China in 2021 HY1. 181,810. This spells trouble for newcomers that are clearly positioned as EV OEMs. Companies such as Rivian, Fisker, Faraday Future and Lucid face an uphill battle to offer products that are superior to the latest offerings of OEMs and more advanced EV producers. Investors are also increasingly scrutinizing their business models looking for weaknesses. A few former high-flyers that used a special purpose acquisition company (a SPAC, or blank check company – see ADR9) to gain a rapid stock listing are now facing a "spactastrophy" as investors uncover problems and pull their money out. For example, shares in Hyzon Motors, Canoo, Lordstown Motors Group, Faraday Future and Nikola are trading at the same level, or even significantly below, their initial listing price.. 84,844. In fact, the only major market where new OEMs are positioned strongly in comparison to traditional OEMs is China. Chinese OEMs and new EV players dominate EV sales in the country. Even Volkswagen, the ICE market leader, is facing significant challenges in selling its new EV models there. Local rivals offer vehicles with similar or better electric powertrains along with market-leading connectivity and infotainment solutions, with attractive designs. Such progress highlights that in the new world of EVs, the race between traditional and new OEMs is wide open.. 46,180 38,665 31,994 30,452 30,154. 29,147. CHINA’S TOP SELLER. 14 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. Changan Benni E-Star BEV. Li Xiang One EREV. GAC Aion S BEV. Great Wall Ora R1 / Black Cat BEV. BYD Han BE. Tesla Model Y. Tesla Model 3. 21,376. Wuling Hongguang Mini BEV. Not many people outside of China or the auto industry have heard of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV. In the country, however, the three-door microcar achieved cult status and shot to the top of the bestseller list just a year after its launch in 2020. Seating four people and with a range of up to 170 km from the 13.8 kWh battery version, it is produced by SAIC-GMWuling, a joint venture between Chinese carmakers SAIC and Wuling, and General Motors. Cost has been a big factor in its success, with the base 9.2 kWh model selling for around USD 4,200. This compares with the USD 39,000 starting cost of a Tesla Model 3 in the country. The ability to personalize the car has meant that it has particularly appealed to a younger market, with around 70% of buyers born after 1990, according to Wuling.. 27,136. BYD Qin Plus DM-i PHEV. EV newcomers, meanwhile, are experiencing mixed fortunes, with many still looking for their place in the market. The most prominent, Tesla, has built a reputation around its user-friendly technologies and design solutions. But its vehicle innovation leadership is now being challenged by the OEMs, whose latest flagship EVs are seen as more cutting edge and high tech (for example, reviews of the Mercedes EQS). Investors know, however, that Tesla’s real strength lies in its software architecture and artificial intelligence, which continue to lead the industry. They value Tesla as a tech company rather than an EV OEM.. Homegrown market: Almost all of the 10 top-selling EV models sold in China in the first half of 2021 were produced by Chinese carmakers. Chery eQ BEV. NEWCOMERS STILL FINDING THEIR FEET. Source: Roland Berger. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 15.

(9) Autonomous driving – The bumpy road to reality. The technological hurdles are still very high and currently the bulk of investment money is being channeled into EVs to launch the new generation of fully electric vehicles. Even so, the majority (60%) of our survey respondents expect that fully autonomous commercial mobility services will be operational by 2030.. After peak hype over autonomous driving was reached in 2018 and following the launch of the first commercial service in the US state of Arizona in late 2020, developments have slowed.. The dawn of autonomy: People in Asian nations are far more confident that fully autonomous vehicles will be operational by 2030 than their Western counterparts India. 17%. UAE. Thailand. 11%. Italy. 24%. Indonesia. 11%. South Korea Israel. 5%. Brazil. 5%. Spain USA. 19%. 3%. France. 5%. Norway. 7%. Canada. 4%. Germany. 4%. Japan. 18%. Sweden. 3%. UK. 3%. Belgium. 3%. Netherlands. 3%. Global. 33%. 11% 14%. 25% 20%. 2035. 16%. 2040. 22%. 32%. 18% 18%. 21%. 20%. 19% 15%. 9%. 13%. 23%. 19%. 7%. 20%. 20%. 17%. 5%. 14%. 21%. 18%. 4%. 17% 21%. 18%. 5% 6%. 20% 16%. 10%. 27% 24%. 11%. 2030. 15%. 30%. 12%. 15%. 16%. 31%. 10%. 6%. 2025. 27%. 5%. 14% 22%. 13%. 30%. 14% 6%. 16%. 15%. 32%. 15%. 19%. 14%. 32%. 15%. 17%. 17%. 30%. 19%. 17%. 18%. 36%. 7%. Russia. 16%. 17%. 37%. 18%. 1%. 5% 8%. 17%. 15%. 35%. 18%. 3%. 14%. 13%. 39% 22%. 15%. 11%. 31%. 20%. 13%. 13%. 38% 23%. 4%. 9%. 14%. 31%. 25%. 5%. 1%. 9% 3%. 15%. 35%. 4% 8%. 12%. 36%. 28%. 7%. 11%. 33%. 35%. 5%. 8%. 32%. 28%. 4%. Singapore. 30%. 34%. 15%. China. 2022. 34%. 14%. KSA. When do you believe we will have level 4/5 autonomous vehicles, i.e. fully autonomous vehicles without drivers, commercially operational (not for testing) on the roads?. 23% 17%. 10%. Never. Source: RB online survey July 2021: 23,691 participants – Participants by country: Belgium (1,008); Brazil (1,010); Canada (1,020); China (1,014); France (1,014); Germany (1,005); India (1,003); Indonesia (1,016); Israel (1,381); Italy (1,015); Japan (1,018); Netherlands (1,011); Norway (1,053); Russia (1,005);. 16 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. Saudi Arabia (1,008); Singapore (1,018); South Korea (1,012); Spain (1,012); Sweden (1,017); Thailand (1,025); UAE (1,013); UK (1,000); USA (1,013). www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 17.

(10) At the same time, more than 70% of respondents feel that governments are not supportive enough of the technology. Infrastructure, in particular, is thought to be lacking, followed by regulation, tests and investment levels.. But a look at industry activities so far in 2021 suggests the timeframe of fully autonomous commercial services by 2030 is realistic. Below we give a few examples of the latest happenings.. Ready or not? Respondents believe that a lack of infrastructure remains the key stumbling block to the rollout of autonomous driving. Constant innovation: The number of patents related to autonomous driving has kept on rising since 2015. Do you think your country is preparing well enough for autonomous driving (regulatory framework, testing, infrastructure, R&D investment, etc.)?. Autonomous vehicle/function patents as a share of all driving technology patents. 27%. 68%. 51%. 55%. 42%. 43%. 36%. 39%. 27%. 25%. 24%. 21%. 22%. 20%. 19%. 20%. 16%. 19%. 15%. 16%. 15%. 5.8%. 73%. 132,041. 32%. 49%. 4.1%. 106,682. 45%. 58%. 4.4%. 57%. 64%. 61%. 73%. 76%. 75%. 78%. 80%. 79%. 81%. 80%. 84%. 81%. 84%. 85%. 144,514 85%. 12%. 13% 87%. 90%. 88%. 10%. 161,576. 89,123 3.2%. No. Global. Russia Brazil Italy Belgium Germany France Spain Canada Japan Israel UK USA South Korea Netherlands Thailand Sweden Norway Indonesia Singapore China India KSA UAE. 80,565. 1.6%. Yes. 40,116. 1.3%. Infrastructure is not ready (5G, roadways, etc.). 57%. Regulation is lagging. 41%. Not enough tests are conducted Investments in the industry are too limited. 2.2%. 40% 33%. Source: RB online survey July 2021: 23,691 participants – Participants by country: Belgium (1,008); Brazil (1,010); Canada (1,020); China (1,014); France (1,014); Germany (1,005); India (1,003); Indonesia (1,016); Israel (1,381); Italy (1,015); Japan (1,018); Netherlands (1,011); Norway (1,053); Russia (1,005); Saudi Arabia (1,008); Singapore (1,018); South Korea (1,012); Spain (1,012); Sweden (1,017); Thailand (1,025); UAE (1,013); UK (1,000); USA (1,013). 18 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. 2015 Total patents in scope. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021 HY1. Share of patents with keywords. Source: Patentinspiration, Roland Berger. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 19.

(11) New normal: 5G mobile internet services are beginning to overtake and replace 4G services in some countries Evolution of 5G rollout roadmaps. Step 1. Step 2. Step 3. Step 4. Step 5. Feasibility proven. Development roadmaps in place. Frequency allocation achieved. Start of service commercialization. Inflection point arrived (5G is overtaking 4G). China South Korea USA France Germany Indonesia Israel Italy Japan Netherlands Saudi Arabia. Cars Argo AI, the AV technology startup backed by Ford and Volkswagen, was granted a Drivered AV permit as part of California’s Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service (AVPS) pilot in July 2021. It allows Argo to provide free rides (participants in the pilot cannot charge) in its self-driving vehicles on public roads. The move puts Argo in the small but growing group of companies seeking to expand beyond traditional AV testing — a signal that some companies are preparing for commercial operations. Aurora, AutoX, Cruise, Deeproute, Pony.ai, Voyage, Zoox and Waymo have all received VPS Drivered permits, which require a human safety operator. So far, only Cruise has secured a driverless permit, allowing it to shuttle passengers in test vehicles. Also in California, Motional, a USD 4 billion joint venture between Irish automotive parts supplier Aptiv and South Korean carmaker Hyundai, opened a road test center in Los Angeles. The move is part of Motional’s plans to launch fully driverless robotaxis in U.S. cities in 2023, via the Lyft ride-hailing network. Services will use Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 car, which offers Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, meaning it can handle all driving operations in certain conditions and environments.. Singapore Spain. Vans. Sweden. EV startup Arrival announced that its electric van has completed a driverless demonstration at a fully functioning parcel depot, paving the way for road testing. The company, based in London, ultimately plans to develop a scalable commercial Automated Driving System that relies on computer vision rather than expensive sensing technologies.. Thailand UAE UK Belgium India Norway. Minibuses. Russia Brazil Canada. ADR1 (Jan 2017). ADR10 (July 2021). Source: Automotive Disruption Radar – Data points from Edition 1 to 9. 20 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. In August, Chinese tech giant Baidu announced the launch of Apolong II, a multi-purpose autonomous minibus. The firm, which is initially rolling out the AV on roads in Guangzhou, believes the customizable vehicle can be used for public transport, policing, healthcare and commercial applications. The Apolong II uses much of the autonomous driving technology behind Baidu’s Apollo Robotaxi, but with upgraded computing power and sensors that allow it to "see" up to 250 meters away. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 21.

(12) The next steps towards autonomous driving It is clear that commercial AV testing is progressing. Yet the key question of how to earn money from AV services in a sustainable manner remains unanswered. Viable and long-term business cases are still being worked out, and no OEM has developed a sustainable model. In our opinion, there are three key enablers for OEMs: Offer the best connectivity; leverage a premium interior; and provide direct services and content. OEMs will need to research which of the three best fits their customer base – it might even be the case that different OEMs need different approaches. No matter which course they choose, the Automotive Disruption Radar will remain an essential tool in tracking progress, identifying trends and helping OEMs to better plan their business strategies. To further help companies adjust to the new normal in the automotive industry, including post-Covid strategies, disruptor threats and maintaining a competitive advantage, Roland Berger has developed its Automotive Triple Transformation framework. It aims to help senior automotive executives bring order to the complexity and equip their businesses for the challenges of the coming decade.. 22 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. The three key enablers: Connectivity, interior design and infotainment will become the key success factors of autonomous driving Key enablers for service and content usage. CONNECTIVITY High-speed internet system and connectivity through low-Earth orbit satellite, such as Tesla Starlink, lsar Aerospace. PREMIUM INTERIOR More idle time calls for attention on displays (holograms, AR/VR, etc.), sound (privacy, 3D, etc.), wellness (motion sickness, etc.), seating (flexibility, etc.) and materials (sustainable, comfortable, etc.). SERVICE/CONTENT Service offerings expanded both in entertainment (movies, games, etc.) and in assistance (bots, etc.). www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 23.

(13) What is the Automotive Disruption Radar?. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, UAE, UK, USA). Information is also drawn from external sources, such as leading mobility experts and major industry reports. Each nation is scored along 26 indicators, grouped into five dimensions.. The Automotive Disruption Radar is a biannual analysis of market trends related to disruption in the global automotive industry, first undertaken in January 2017. Its latest findings are based on field research and a survey of 23,000+ car users across 23 markets (Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway,. The ADR aims to answer key questions such as: which factors are driving change in automotive ecosystems; how do these factors evolve over time; and what can decision makers do to best manage disruption? Ultimately, the ADR is a go-to decision-making tool for senior executives in the mobility sector.. 360-degree coverage: The Automotive Disruption Radar is based on the permanent screening of 26 indicators along five dimensions Indicator definitions. Amount of shared vehicles Shared vehicles in car parc [%]. EV portfolio. Mobility concept preferences % of people who know at least one person who does not use their own car for mobility. Autonomous vehicle preferences. EV models currently on offer [% of total models]. % of people who would use a fully autonomous robocab if it cost less than owning a vehicle. R&D intensity – Autonomous driving. Mobility planning. No. of FTEs listed on LinkedIn ['000 employees]. % of people who use an app at least once a week to plan a trip. Automotive products (Level 4+). Industry activity. Test roads – Autonomous vehicles Test tracks in operation [#; km]. Vehicle-2-vehicle communication. 4. Multimodal mobility. % of people interested in buying a vehicle directly on the internet. EV preferences. 1. % of people who are considering buying an EV as their next vehicle. Mobility behavior. Customer interest. Models with V2V functions [% of total models on the market]. Usage of multimodal mobility. Digitalized culture preferences. 5. Level 4 city vehicles [% of total car parc]. % of overall distance traveled by car. EV/PHEV sales % of total vehicle sales. Infrastructure. EV/PHEV charging infrastructure. Customer curiosity. Number of charging stations per km of road. People's web search behavior. 3. Mobile network – 5G coverage Steps taken towards 5G installation. Venture capital investment – Artificial intelligence. Technology. 2. Type approval process. Regulation. Current level of regulation. Restrictions for ICEs. Total in USD bn. Restrictions on ICE vehicles in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. Venture capital investment – Mobility. CO2 legislation. Total in USD bn. CO2 emissions target in g/km. Battery cost – EVs Expected development of battery cost [USD/kWh]. Patent activities Automotive patents filed related to autonomous technology [% of total]. Automotive association activities Positive actions/press releases [% of total number of actions/releases]. Autonomous vehicle – Computing power Current level of computing power. Source: Roland Berger. 24 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 25.

(14) Contacts. The ADR community gathers insights from recognized experts in the disruption fields – beyond Roland Berger, it currently includes: utomotive World is a leading B2B publication for the A mobility sector. Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Senior Partner Löffelstraße 46 70597 Stuttgart [email protected] +49 711 3275-7421. Carbometrix mission is to make companies’ carbon performance data accessible and comparable Charging Radar is the leading data analytics platform for public EV charging infrastructure CoMotion is a global platform where lleaders and policymakers meet to share ideas, do business and plan the new mobility future. Stefan Riederle Principal Sederanger 1 80538 Munich [email protected] +49 89 9230-8169. Fka is a research partner to the automotive industry, a position they have held since 1981 Springer Fachmedien is part of the Professional Group within Springer Nature – one of the world’s leading science and professional publishers. → Read more about our community: About – Automotive Disruption Radar (automotive-disruption-radar.com). ADR Members can navigate through the ADR data, customize and download relevant charts, read expert insights… free of charge What is the Automotive Disruption Radar Community? Roland Berger's Automotive Disruption Radar (ADR) website is a one-stop shop for automotive industry data and analyses. It offers free access to data from the Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar. Via the platform, users can navigate past and current data, customize and download charts and even configure their own radar. In addition, the ADR website features curated thoughtleadership articles by third-party contributors, often presenting alternative views, different angles and fresh insights. Visitors to the site can also access links to publications and videos produced by Roland Berger investigating a wide range of current topics in the automotive industry.. 26 www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021. RB INSIGHTS Analytics on latest ADR data. All Icons from Noun Project. DIGITAL PLATFORM. Photos Roland Berger GmbH. → Visit http://automotive-disruption-radar.com. EXPERT COMMENTS Regular opinions and comments by RB Automotive experts. NEWSLETTERS → What's new? Latest insight: our Automotive Software Factory series. ADR PARTNERS' CONTRIBUTIONS Insights and publications on latest innovations, trends, forecasts. www.automotive-disruption-radar.com – Edition 10 – 2021 27.

(15) Publisher Roland Berger GmbH Sederanger 1 80538 Munich Germany +49 89 9230-0. This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any information provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication. © 2021 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.. RB_SAL_21_020_FLY. Roland Berger is the only management consultancy of European heritage with a strong international footprint. As an independent firm, solely owned by our Partners, we operate 50 offices in all major markets. Our 2400 employees offer a unique combination of an analytical approach and an empathic attitude. Driven by our values of entrepreneurship, excellence and empathy, we at Roland Berger are convinced that the world needs a new sustainable paradigm that takes the entire value cycle into account. Working in cross-competence teams across all relevant industries and business functions, we provide the best expertise to meet the profound challenges of today and tomorrow..

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