Risk factors for offending

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Procedural Justice Versus Risk Factors for Offending: Predicting Recidivism in Youth

Procedural Justice Versus Risk Factors for Offending: Predicting Recidivism in Youth

eliminated from analyses. First, it was necessary to determine whether the chosen risk factors (psychopathic personality characteristics, substance use problems, delinquent peers, and age at first arrest) were related to offending in the current sample of youth on probation. Correlational analyses indicated that all four risk factors were associated with self-reported total offending and violent offending at three months, and that self-reported income offending was associated with the presence of delinquent peers, psychopathic features, and alcohol/drug use, but not age at first arrest (Table 7). Subsequent hierarchical regression analyses only included variables that were significantly correlated with the offending type of interest.
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Offending risk factors and area: an investigation using structural equation modelling

Offending risk factors and area: an investigation using structural equation modelling

2.7 Summary There are two distinct seams of investigation that can be traced through the criminological literature. One is the analysis of the individual, their behaviours and their risk factors, the other the characteristics of the area and the behaviours of people within them. Through a symbiotic relationship between the empirical and the theorising under the banner of Developmental and Life Course Theory a great deal of knowledge about risk factors at the individual and family level have been uncovered, though for reason of data collection limitations and focus this field has delivered less in the way of concrete findings of the impact that neighbourhood processes play on offending. On the other hand there is a strong evidence base that deprivation, social disorganisation, disorder and/or collective efficacy have an effect on the amount of offending in a specific area. Consequently, this has led to two closely related but fundamentally distinct sets of knowledge operating at different levels; one focused on the individual, the other makes inferences and statements at a more macro-level.
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Risk factors for sexual offending in men working with children - a community-based survey

Risk factors for sexual offending in men working with children - a community-based survey

screening items remains questionable, since it is highly unlikely that someone would disclose such fantasies or behaviors in such a context. Furthermore, CSA-W were more likely to have been previously convicted for a property or violent offense than non-CSA-W, indicating that criminal background checks, being a procedure free from impression management, might add useful information. Such background checks should therefore routinely consider not only previous sexual offending but also other convictions for criminal behavior: apart from the question of preventing child sexual abuse, it is debatable how much anti-sociality is to be tolerated in individuals working with children anyway. It should, however, be kept in mind that the prevalence of a criminal history in applicants for youth-serving institutions is less than 1%, and such low prevalences will empirically lead to a low sensitivity of any screening method (Abel et al., 2012; Brenner & Gefeller, 1997; Choice Point, 2008). Accordingly, the sensitivity of the combined set of risk factors (i.e. anti-sociality, pedophilic fantasies, sex drive, and contact with children at work) was as low as 0.24, meaning that only one in four CSA-W would be recognized correctly as such.
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Young incarcerated Vietnamese offenders and the risk factors in their offending: a life history approach

Young incarcerated Vietnamese offenders and the risk factors in their offending: a life history approach

(Trong – Case 24) School violence was a significant risk factor for youth offending in this study, given that it increased other risk factors for youth offending related to school conn[r]

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The Risk Factors for Youth Offending From a Study of the Life Histories of Young Male Offenders in Vietnam

The Risk Factors for Youth Offending From a Study of the Life Histories of Young Male Offenders in Vietnam

Abstract In recent years, instances of youth offending have become more severe with the increase in the violent and serious crimes committed by young people. This paper investigates the risk factors for youth offending in Vietnam. Many previous studies have focused on the risk factors for youth offending. (Farrington & Welsh 2008; Hawkins et al. 2000; Shader 2001; Wasserman et al. 2003).However, research ofrisk factors for youth offending is less popular in Asian countries (Le, Monfared & Stockdale 2005). Moreover, there is almost no evidence that findings on risk factors associated with youth offending from Western studies can apply to Asian or other cultures (Chen & Astor 2010, p. 1389). Therefore, research on the risk factors for youth offending in Vietnam are still limited, and it is unsure if the identified risk factors for youth offending in previous studies could be applied in the Vietnamese contexts. Based on the literature review of life history research and youth offending, life history interviews were conducted with 30 male prisoners in three prisons in Vietnam, who had committed crimes when they were less than 18 years old. The data was then analysis to identify the most significant risk factors for youth offending. The identified risk factors for youth offending were categorized into five domains, including individual, family, school, peer-related, and community risk factors. The family and individual risk factors seemed to have most significant influences, while school violence, delinquent peers, and game/internet involvement were also outstanding in other domains. The research may help with understanding the risk factors for youth offending in the contexts of Vietnam from a life history approach. Moreover, the understanding these risk factors could help with improving the effectiveness of youth offending prevention in Vietnam.
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The relationship of offending style to psychological and social risk factors in a sample of adolescent males

The relationship of offending style to psychological and social risk factors in a sample of adolescent males

Table 5 has the outcome of co-offenders compared to CMS offenders (reference category). The model fits were significant for all waves that were tested. The results indicated that psychopathic traits have no significant effect on style of offending. Higher levels of exposure to violence was a predictor of CMS offending for the first half of the study, up to 48 months. However, no significant variance between CMS and co-offenders was found for aggressive offending frequency after 12 months (Table 3). This suggests that the source of violence is not necessarily involvement in violent offending. Lower levels of impulse control predicted CMS offending at 24 months and higher levels of peer antisocial influence was a significant predictor at 24 and 48 months. As the sample aged and progressed into their twenties, there were no significant predictors to differentiate between CMS offenders and those who reported only offending with others. The second column in Table 5 has the outcome for solo offenders compared to CMS offenders. For the first part of the study, similar results were found to the comparison between CMS and co-offenders. The main difference for solo offenders was that they continued to have lower levels of exposure to violence and peer antisocial behaviour as the sample aged.
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Users of online indecent images of children (IIOC): an investigation into aetiological and perpetuating risk factors, the offending process, the risk of perpetrating a contact sexual offence, and protective factors

Users of online indecent images of children (IIOC): an investigation into aetiological and perpetuating risk factors, the offending process, the risk of perpetrating a contact sexual offence, and protective factors

loopholes must have existed to allow the commercial trade of (particularly nudist) material. This offers support to the findings of Lam et al. (2010) which indicated a lack of awareness of the illegality of possession of certain types of IIOC amongst a university sample. Participants reported that as they continued to offend, they experienced (or attended to fewer) concerns about what they their offending behaviour, reporting less shame and/or concerns about being caught. This is presumably because they became habituated to the material and there were no counter-occurrences to suggest they would be caught or that victims were being harmed. That is, offenders worried less about being caught because they had not yet been apprehended; and they felt less shame as there were no triggers to remind them of their shame or guilty. Other participants, however, stated that they allowed themselves to access material by cognitively disengaging or simply over-riding any protective concerns they had about their behaviour. Of these participants, some suggested that online visual cues or ‘flash pages’ to remind users that their actions are illegal and harmful would go some way to IIOC prompt users to immediately discontinue retrieving material. Further protective sub-themes were extracted which advocated the role of psycho-education to nullify justifying beliefs and remind IIOC offenders of the nature of harm to victims.
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Individual, family and offence characteristics of high risk childhood offenders: comparing non-offending, one-time offending and re-offending Dutch-Moroccan migrant children in the Netherlands

Individual, family and offence characteristics of high risk childhood offenders: comparing non-offending, one-time offending and re-offending Dutch-Moroccan migrant children in the Netherlands

Given the high-risk profile of Dutch-Moroccan boys in the Netherlands, we expected most participants in our study to have individual and family characteristics that are generally acknowledged as risk factors for offending. Overall, we expected these risk factors to be most preva- lent in re-offenders. Due to their low attendance at voluntary mental health care facilities and the strong association between behavioural problems and delin- quent behaviour, we expected re-offenders to have more behavioural problems and to have received more mental health care within the juridical framework. In addition, we expected offenders and re-offenders to be more oriented towards Dutch society compared to the controls. This present study is to our knowledge the first study that focuses on a high-risk subgroup of childhood one- time offenders and re-offenders from a single ethnic min- ority group. Moreover, instead of self-reported delin- quency, we used police registration to define one-time offenders and re-offenders and compared these boys with a matched group of non-delinquent Dutch-Moroccan boys. Finally, whereas most studies rely on either self- reports or police registrations, this study made use of mul- tiple sources: official police registrations, child and parent reports and information from the Child Welfare Agency.
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TOOLS TO IDENTIFY AND ASSESS THE RISK OF OFFENDING AMONG YOUTH

TOOLS TO IDENTIFY AND ASSESS THE RISK OF OFFENDING AMONG YOUTH

These tools from related fields are very useful for practitioners in juvenile delinquency prevention to help identify social and behavioural vulnerabilities that often correspond to the dynamic risk factors 10 associated with offending behaviour. Accurate identification of these factors could eventually reduce the risk of more serious future offending. For example, persisting difficulties with social skills, such as consistently having poor peer relations, are a predictor of internalized and externalized behavioural disorders in adolescence, and even in adulthood. 11 The behavioural difficulties measured by these tools do not refer to the harmless problems that all children may manifest temporarily at one stage or another in their development, but rather to fairly serious difficulties that compromise their subsequent development. 12 These behavioural difficulties must not be neglected, especially since most youth cases referred to professionals working with children in schools and institutions involve these type of difficulties. 13
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Information on Children and Young People at Risk of Offending A PRACTICAL GUIDE

Information on Children and Young People at Risk of Offending A PRACTICAL GUIDE

■ the school ■ personal and individual factors ■ the community. The sharing of information in respect of children and young people is vital in order to identify those at greatest risk, so they can be afforded services that will bring protective factors into their lives and prevent them becoming involved in crime and disorder. To achieve this, agencies involved in a partnership should agree a list of risk and protective factors appropriate to the partnership aims and objectives. A list of risk factors most applicable to the prevention of crime agenda has been compiled in the form of a table that allows space for justifying each individual risk identified in a young person’s life, and can be viewed at www.yjb.gov.uk/informationsharing (all other tools mentioned in this guidance can also be found at this address). In this format, it makes for a simple but effective multi-agency screening tool that will enhance any single agency use of the Common Assessment Framework currently being developed, and from which the overall level of perceived risk can be fully assessed.
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Risk Assessment for Future Offending: The Value and Limits of Expert Evidence at Sentencing

Risk Assessment for Future Offending: The Value and Limits of Expert Evidence at Sentencing

Predictive Validity of the Dutch HCR-20, 12 P SYCHOL . C RIME & L. 321, 321-336 (2006); Vivienne de Vogel et al., Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders, 28 L AW & H UM . B EHAV . 235, 235-251 (2004); Michiel de Vries Robbe et al., Risk Factors and Protective Factors: A Two-Sided Dynamic Approach to Violence Risk Assessment, 24 J. F ORENSIC P SY - CHIATRY & P SYCHOL . 440, 440-457 (2013); Michiel de Vries Robbe et al., Changes in Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors for Violence During Inpatient Forensic Psychiatric Treatment: Predicting Reduc- tions in Postdischarge Community Recidivism, 39 L AW & H UM . B EHAV . 53, 53-61 (2015); Kevin S. Douglas, Zachary Yeoman et al., Comparative Validity Analysis of Multiple Measures of Violence Risk in a Sample of Criminal Offenders, 32 C RIM . J UST . & B EHAV . 479, 479-510 (2005); Kevin S. Douglas, James Ogloff et al., Evaluation of a Model of Violence Risk Assessment among Forensic Psychiatric Patients, 54 P SYCHIATRIC S ERVICES 1372, 1372-1379 (2003); Pia Enebrink et al., Predicting Aggressive and Disruptive Behavior in Referred 6 to 12-year-old Boys: Prospective Validation of the EARL- 20B Risk/Needs Checklist, 13 A SSESSMENT 356, 356-367 (2006); Alexandra Garcia-Mansilla et al., Violence Risk Assessment and Women: Predictive Accuracy of the HCR-20 in a Civil Psychiatric Sample, 29 B EHAV . S CI . & L. 623, 623-633 (2011); Nicola S. Gray et al., Predicting Violence Using Structured Professional Judgment in Patients with Different Mental and Behavioral Disorders, 187 P SY - CHIATRY R ESEARCH 248, 248-253 (2011); P. Randall Kropp & Stephen D. Hart, The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) Guide: Reliability and Validity in Adult Male Offenders, 24 L AW & H UM . B EHAV 101, 101-118 (2000); McGowan, supra note 56; Joanna R. Meyers & Fred Schmidt, Predictive Validity of the Struc- tured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) with Juvenile Offenders, 35 C RIM . J UST . & B EHAV 344, 344-355 (2008); Laura E. O’Shea et al., Predictive Validity of the HCR-20 for Violent and Non- Violent Sexual Behaviour in a Secure Mental Health Service, C RIM . B EHAV . & M ENTAL H EALTH (2015); Michael J. Vitacco et al., Can Standardized Measures of Risk Predict Inpatient Violence? Combining Static and Dynamic Variables to Improve Accuracy, 39 C RIM . J UST . & B EHAV . 589, 589-606 (2012); Jennifer Welsh et al., A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments: Predictive and
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Offending and Victimization in the Digital Age : Comparing Correlates of Cybercrime and Traditional Offending-Only, Victimization-Only and the Victimization-Offending Overlap

Offending and Victimization in the Digital Age : Comparing Correlates of Cybercrime and Traditional Offending-Only, Victimization-Only and the Victimization-Offending Overlap

Considering the common risk factors associated with cybercrime victimization and offending, it is imperative to understand their underlying theoretical relationships. The primary risk factor identi- fied across multiple studies of cybercrime is low self-control, though it has greater explanatory power for less-technical forms of cybercrime (Holt and Bossler 2014 ). Some forms of cybercrime are simple to complete, provide immediate gratification for the individual, and present multiple opportunities for offending, such as digital piracy (Holt and Bossler 2014 ). These same conditions may increase an individual ’s risk of victimization as savvy offenders may target those who are online more frequently and engage in risky activities like downloading pirated materials (Bossler and Holt 2010 ). Van Wilsem ( 2013 ) found that low self-control was positively related to hacking victimization, while Bossler and Holt ( 2010 ) found that low self-control was neither related to hacking nor to malware victimization. However, Holtfreter, Reisig, and Pratt ( 2008 ) found that although targeting is random, the personal characteristics and behavior of the victim influenced who responded to a scam. As a result, low self-control may play a role in the risk of victimization regardless of the targeted nature of victimization.
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Assessing Protective Factors for Adolescent Offending: A Conceptually Informed Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI

Assessing Protective Factors for Adolescent Offending: A Conceptually Informed Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI

Measures The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). The SAVRY (Borum et al., 2006) is a structured professional judgement risk assessment tool that is designed to assess violence risk in adolescents aged 12 to 18. It includes 24 risk factors in Historical (e.g., history of violence), Social/Contextual (e.g., peer delinquency), and Individual/Clinical domains (e.g., risk-taking and impulsivity). It also includes the following six protective factors: prosocial involvement, strong social support, strong attachments and bonds, positive attitude towards intervention and authority, strong commitment to school, and resilient personality traits. Each risk factor is rated as Low, Moderate, or High, whereas each protective factor is rated as Present or Absent. Similar to other studies, we summed protective factors to create a Protective Total, and risk factors to create a Risk Total (Lodewijks et al., 2010). In the present study, interrater reliability (two-way random effect model for single raters, absolute agreement; McGraw & Wong, 1996) was good for the Protective Total and excellent for the Risk Total at baseline (intraclass correlation coefficients [ICC] = .70 and .91, respectively, n = 31; Shrout & Fleiss, 1979). The ICCs for the other SAVRY sections were also high (ICC = .85, .79, and .90 for Historical, Social/Contextual, and Individual/Clinical sections, respectively).
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risk and protective factors

risk and protective factors

risk and protective factors PEAK TIMES AND LOCATIONS One aim of the research was to determine the situations and times when offending by 8 to 16-year-olds is most likely to occur, in order to identify where and when the risk factors outlined above most frequently apply. The evidence for this, however, was revealed to be both rather limited in volume, and to have methodological flaws, mainly due to the inherent inaccuracy of the recorded crime statistics and self-reported offending on which the available data are based: only a small proportion of crime is reported, and there is a widely-held view that the youngest respondents to self-report studies are unlikely fully to understand and/or answer honestly questions about their offending behaviour.
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Predicting Repeat DWI: Chronic Offending, Risk Assessment, and Community Supervision

Predicting Repeat DWI: Chronic Offending, Risk Assessment, and Community Supervision

Risk assessments have gone through four stages of development (Bonta, 1996). Figure 1 shows these stages. In the first generation, professional or clinical judgment was used to make predictions of outcomes in which an officer, social worker, or other professional would make decisions based upon an interview and file review of an offender. This assessment process lacked any standardized approach to making placement decisions, but was entirely based upon an individual‘s perceptions of the offender or client. Realizing the low predictive validity of this approach, researchers developed a second generation of actuarial assessment instruments that were atheoretical and composed of mostly static items. Researchers and practitioners recognized the need for more accurate predictive mechanisms in the field, and theoretically driven research focused on the impact of dynamic and static factors‘ relationship to criminal justice outcomes.
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Evidence review: Music making with young offenders and young people at risk of offending

Evidence review: Music making with young offenders and young people at risk of offending

PROCESS EVALUATION The majority of projects report having undertaken process evaluation. This usually seeks to explore critical factors that support achievement of intended project outcomes, as well as identifying challenges and issues that have arisen during the project. The purpose of process evaluation is to highlight learning from experience and encourage best practice. Information sources for process evaluation include project plans, plans and records of work, attendance registers, observation logs, reflective accounts such as diaries, informal and formal records of feedback from consultation with participants and stakeholders, minutes of meetings and annual reports. Several projects use a variety of media including audio recordings, photographs, videos and graffiti boards as part of project evaluation. These data provide interesting insights into the issues and challenges of music making in youth justice settings as well as identifying best practice.
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Pharmacological treatment of patients with paraphilic disorders and risk of sexual offending: an international perspective

Pharmacological treatment of patients with paraphilic disorders and risk of sexual offending: an international perspective

countries reported that steroidal antiandrogens (31.4%) and antipsychotics (28.6%) were used more often than SSRIs (5.7%) and GnRH-agonists (2.9%) (Eastern Europe: Antiandrogens = antipsychotics > SSRIs = GnRH agonists) 2 . An overview of the participants’ opinions as to whether pharmacological agents should ever be used in the treatment of sexually deviant behaviours in individuals convicted of a sexual offence is presented in Table 2. This also shows what others factors have to be certified before treatment can begin, for example, whether patients are informed about the possible risks and side effects, whether patients have to give written informed consent, and whether patients are notified that their consent can be revoked. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the more high-risk a patient is in terms of showing future sexually violent behaviours, the more appropriate practitioners thought the use of ADT treatment was. This view was shared by most participants across the three regions and is presented in Table 3.
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Youth crime: an investigation into the effectiveness of general re-offending risk assessment tools

Youth crime: an investigation into the effectiveness of general re-offending risk assessment tools

114 ‘Asset’ ‘Asset’ is a youth general re-offending risk assessment measure which is used to inform sentence planning, intervention and supervision, in both community and custodial settings, (see method for full description of this measure) and is currently used across the UK. It is said to combine both actuarial and SPJ approaches in the assessment of young offenders. To date, there have been three studies which have looked at the predictive validity of ‘Asset’ in England and Wales (Baker, Jones, Roberts, & Merrington, 2003; Baker et al., 2005; Wilson & Hinks, 2011). Each of these three studies found ‘Asset’ to be a moderate predictor (67% and 69% accuracy rate) of re-offending at follow-up periods of one and two years. In Wilson and Hinks’ (2011) study ‘Asset’ was combined with the Offender Group Reconviction Scale 3 (OGRS 3; Howard, Francis, Soothill, & Humphreys, 2009) a short risk assessment tool based on static factors only (age, gender and criminal history); findings indicated that ‘Asset’ combined with the OGRS 3, was a better predictor of re- offending at one year follow-up than ‘Asset’ alone. Despite being mandated as one of only two youth risk of general re-offending assessments by the Risk Management Authority (2013) and its widespread use in Scotland – it is estimated that at least 13 Local Authorities use this assessment measure (Baker et al., 2005) – there has been no research which has explored the predictive validity of ‘Asset’ with Scottish youths.
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Risk and protective factors associated with juvenile delinquency and juvenile sexual offending behavior : the role of ethnic identity, exposure to violence, and parenting practices and attachment

Risk and protective factors associated with juvenile delinquency and juvenile sexual offending behavior : the role of ethnic identity, exposure to violence, and parenting practices and attachment

cautioned that new information on sexual offenses would be shared with authorities. A third limitation, as mentioned previously, is that for the juvenile non-sexually offending youth the sample size of those who did not report witnessing domestic violence was too small (n between 21 – 22) to get an accurate depiction of how much of a difference in reported crimes was accounted for by having witnessed domestic violence. A final limitation of the study is that the youth surveyed were all in residential facilities and thus were serious offenders who most likely experienced more abuse and possibly more forms of abuse. Results may have been different for youth with less severe offending histories.
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Offending Behaviour Programmes

Offending Behaviour Programmes

therapies risk harming or worsening a situation for young people who offend. However, see the subsequent chapter on service delivery about the potential problem of group contagion effects). Because CBT and MST programmes tend to display stronger effects when implemented in demonstration projects compared to routine practice, a crucial question is whether, and if so by what means, routine practice can achieve the same level of effectiveness obtained in demonstration projects. Practitioners need to carefully consider the content and implementation factors, as well as other external factors, which differentiate successful from less successful programmes, to ensure not only that the effectiveness of the chosen programme has been empirically supported, but also that the chosen programme is suited to the current target population (see the following chapter on individual needs).
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