Seasonal forecasting
Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene
... in seasonal fore- casting research (Kirtman et ...ical seasonal climate forecast models have also been widely applied and evaluated (Luo and Wood, 2007; Mo et ...dynamical forecasting of hydrological ...
16
Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance
... for seasonal forecast systems were not for the ‘standard’ three month seasonal climate forecast period but for two months ...of seasonal forecast information to the highest of all farming groups in ...
28
Generalised estimators for seasonal forecasting by combining grouping and shrinkage approaches
... for seasonal forecasting is to use the individual item’s data history to forecast seasonal ...Individual Seasonal Indices (ISI) method or classical decomposition, ...Group Seasonal ...
30
Evaluating Weather Generator Techniques for Downscaling Precipitation for Seasonal Forecasting.
... At this point there are a few important points to consider. First, no studies have made use of GiST or GiSTR for downscaling. Second, while GiST and GiSTR both make use of the spatial structure of precipitation in their ...
477
An approach to seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in Buenos Aires, Argentina
... a seasonal forecasting model for the Buenos Aires region using a simple regression model will be ...of seasonal predictability because it can be extended out to longer ranges based on the influences ...
15
Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia
... predicted observed SSTs, the worst result was in 2006, for which only 13 % of members predicted the SST cooling. The best was in 1997, for which close to 90 % predicted the SST cooling, corresponding with our observation ...
14
Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India
... In this study, a 30-year hindcast of malaria incidence in India is presented, produced by forcing a dynamic disease model with output from a state of the art cou- pled atmosphere-ocean seasonal forecast model (see ...
20
Comparing the Forecasting Performance of Seasonal Arima and Holt -Winters Methods of Births at a Tertiary Healthcare Facility in Ghana
... obtained Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model on a monthly number of birth for an 11-year ...other forecasting methods to determine the method that will best explain the ...
10
The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe
... various forecasting systems makes the concate- nation not entirely ...The forecasting systems are related since they are from different generations of the same model development; however, they have ...
12
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
... Other seasonal forecasting systems generally have some combination of shortcomings with respect to stochastic scenarios: they may not produce reliable ensembles ...
24
Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0
... a seasonal forecasting system and for many applica- tions, such as water resources and reservoir management, a forecast of the exact week in which an event is expected at a lead time of several months ahead ...
20
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
... Other seasonal forecasting systems generally have some combination of shortcomings with respect to stochastic scenarios: they may not produce reliable ensembles ...
24
Scenarios for solar thermal collector in Germany
... That being said, this research will attempt to reduce, at a macro-level, the uncertainty of Solar Thermal Collectors market acceptance, in Germany, by applying the scenario planning theory – built on Intuitive Logics –by ...
29
Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
... equations. Seasonal forecasting by GCMs is based on coupled ocean–atmospheric integrations, where both atmospheric and oceanic components of the Earth’s sys- tem are taken into ...climate forecasting ...
12
Modelling and forecasting Lake Malawi water level fluctuations using stochastic models
... models (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is to empirically remove as much structure from the data as possible, with the ultimate goal of having the residuals as ‘white noise’ as empirical representation of the response variable ...
11
Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
... ESP forecasting method and might result in unskilful ESP ...of seasonal climate forecasts, in place of the historical meteorological inputs, to feed hydrological models and extend the predictability of ...
16
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions
... In terms of terrestrial hydrology, a basic question is how to manage the water resources in a way that is adap- tive to climate change, especially to the extreme events (e.g., droughts). In other words, how to predict ...
15
Seasonal ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall in Warri Town, Nigeria
... We obtained historical data of rainfall in Warri Town for the period 2003-2012 for the purpose of model identification and those of 2013 for forecast validation of the identified model. Model iden- tification was by ...
8
Seasonal climate forecasting for sugar cane: an economic investigation of harvest management
... a seasonal climate forecast yields benefits to farmers, millers and sellers (that exceed those obtainable if not conditioning start dates on forecasts) over the medium to longer ...
279
Statistical Models for Long range Forecasting of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India Using Step Wise Regression and Neural Network
... monsoon seasonal rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is 89 cm with a coefficient of variation of about ...long-range forecasting (LRF) of southwest monsoon rainfall is a high priority in ...
15