Asian countries studied but represent 88 per cent of the population.
Iran recognizes that its economic development has been adversely affected by population growth and considers the implementation of a family planning programmtfessential." The Philippine plan states that considerable resources that could otherwise be used for direct devel
opment projects must be diverted for educational and other services required by the country’s large dependent population.
In Latin America and the Caribbean area only five countries, or 28 per cent of those studied in the region, mention the effects of population growth on economic growth (see Table 8). These countries represent only 16 per cent of the population of the area. Guatemala's plan states, "Development is a slow process, difficult and expensive, and the rapid increase in population constitutes one of the most ser
ious obstacles."
Thus in most of these 23 plans, population growth is viewed as a hindrance but not as an overwhelming obstacle to development.
Several plans, however — Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand — view population growth as the critical obstacle to devel
opment. Not a single plan explicitly states that economic growth is being reduced because population growth is too low. Argentina wants a larger population, but that is because it has "frontier" regions that it wants settled. Barbados, as we have seen, feels that its population is at the same time too small aid too large — that is,
its high density does not permit continued absorption of the growing labour force in agriculture, but at the same time the smallness of its population is felt to act "as a brake on industrial development"
by limiting large-scale production. No arguments are found in any other development plan in support of rapid population growth to
pro-mote economic development.
Population Pressure on Social Services
The increasing population, as well as the increase in the number of children, is cited as a problem affecting the cost, adequacy, and nature of government social and welfare services in 22 countries, or 37 per cent of those studied (see Table 5). The population pressure from migration into urban areas, where such services are most often provided, is also discussed in many plans. Plans including only pressures from migration are not included in this classification, however•
In many respects this category encompasses the other classifi
cations of health, education, and housing, but discussion of these factors in a plan is not sufficient to qualify the plan for inclusion here. A discussion of either other welfare programmesor/social ser
vices in general has been required for inclusion in this category.
The six African countries that mention population pressures on social services in their development plans (see Table 6) represent 27 per cent of the African countries under study and 16 per cent of the African population under study. Uganda's plan claims that if the population growth rate were reduced (it does not say how much), the government would be able to "increase, by about one-third, per capita expenditure on the social services." Zambia says that the projected high rate of population growth accentuates "the need for accelerat
ed social services development."
The nine Asian countries (see Table 7) account for 45 per cent of the Asian countries under study and 76 per cent of the Asian popu
lation under study. Nepal, concerned about the density of population
in the Katmandu Valley, says that *'it will be more and more difficult to arrange necessary social and economical infrastructure (such as education, health, housing, culture and recreation) because of the increase in population." Turkey states that its population growth rate of 2.7 per cent "leads to a great amount of expenditure in ...
various social services."
The seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean that ex
press concern about population pressure on social services represent 39 per cent of the area's countries under study but only 22 per cent of their population. Colombia regards the expansion of social ser
vices in rural areas as essential as a means of drawing people from the overcrowded cities and encouraging the present inhabitants to remain. Trinidad and Tobago assert that population pressure on social services is placing a "tremendous burden on Government recurrent
expenditure."
High Dependency Ratio
The dependency ratio is the ratio of the population considered in
eligible for productive activity to the population that is considered to be in the prime working ages. The productive years are commonly considered to be 15-65. Countries with the higheset levels of fertil
ity generally have the highest dependency ratios. The higher the de
pendency ratio, the greater the burden on society, although one of the positive effects of a high dependency ratio may be a younger, healthier, and more productive labour force.
Nineteen countries, or 32 per cent of those studied, recognize high dependency ratios as problems in their development plans; these countries account for 62 per cent of the combined population of the
countries under study.
The four African countries (see Table 6) account for 18 per cent of the African countries under study but 36 per cent of the pop
ulation. While Nigeria recognizes that the "high youth-dependency ratio is, of course, serious from the viewpoint of mobilizing domestic
saving and of growth-inducing capital formation,*' at the same time it considers that it "offers an opportunity for innovations in social organization, designed to harness the energies of the youth more pur
posefully for the development process." Tanzania considers it "very good to increase our population, because our country is large and there is plenty of unused land. But it is necessary to remember that'
the increasing numbers of children born every year will be babies in arms, not workers .... It is obvious that just as the number of our children is increasing, so-the burden on the adults — the work
ers — is increasing."
The eight Asian countries concerned about high dependency ratios (see Table 7) account for 40 per cent of the Asian countries under study but 75 per cent of the population. Bangladesh states
that if its high rate of population growth continues, "the percentage of dependent population will further increase, aggravating the already unfavourable population structure." Such a high dependency ratio is not conducive to the growth of the economy, as it will neutralize many of the gains obtained by the country's development efforts.
Thailand points out that "for every 100 Thais of working age the number of dependents 15 years or under is as much as 89. This repre
sents a heavy burden and limits the improvement of living standards for many large families."
The seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (see Table
8) comprise 39 per cent of the area's nations under study but only 22 per cent of their population. Venezuela notes that its popula
tion under 15 rose from 42 per cent in 1950 to 47 per cent in 1969, while the 15-59 age group fell from 54 per cent to 49 per cent.
"The proportion of adults will continue to decline, with a corres
ponding elevation in the coefficient of dependency and a decline
of the level of participation, which has diverse repercussions, social and economic ...." Guatemala states that "the population under 15 years of age constitutes a serious problem in the short term, inde
pendent of future changes in fertility pattern, for now those al
ready b o m require education at all levels and assistance in the area of health, including nutrition, for the next 15 years."
Population Pressure on Health Services
Many of the same factors that put pressure on education and social services are mentioned in the plans as affecting health services.
It is often felt that rapid population growth, increased aspirations for medical services, and urbanization ensure the failure of current medical facilities to meet the demand for them. Some countries re
cognize that their health services need to be greatly expanded just to maintain the current inadequate ratios of the services to popu
lation. They also recognize that high-fertility populations with a large proportion of infants require increased medical facilities.
Public health measures implemented on a large scale are, of course, credited for dramatic declines in mortality. Personal health ser
vices are viewed as inadequate and necessary, though costly.
Nineteen countries, or 32 per cent of those studied, mention population pressures on health services in their development plans;
they represented only 22 per cent of the combined population under study. The nine African countries (see Table 6) account for 41 per cent of the African countries under study and represent 45 per cent of the African population under study. Mauritius notes that free or low-cost services provided by the government, in particular the health agencies, "are an important part of the consumption of the lower income groups, which in Mauritius include the great mass of the population." A great increase in expenditures for these ser
vices "has resulted in the level of these services being barely main
tained.” Swaziland calculates that "if current fertility rates remain unchanged, an average of 60 new beds in general hospitals will have to be provided each year until the year 2000 to ensure that the bedjpopulation ratio has not deteriorated by then .... Such demands would require additional physical facilities and personnel which are well beyond the reach of Swaziland's limited resources.”
The six Asian countries that express concern about population pressure on health services (see Table 7) account for 30 per cent of the Asian countries under study but only 20 per cent of the popul- lation. Sri Lanka states that any further increase in the birth rate would place "inordinate strains” on hospitals and other services, "and
in such a situation, it is only by a shift of investment from pro
ductive activities that it would be possible to maintain these ser
vices even at present levels." Pakistan, which in 1970 had only one doctor for 6,000 persons, one hospital bed for about 3,000, and one nurse for 1,500, says that it is committed to providing its people with adequate health care, but that every gain it managers to make in this area is "swallowed by the rapidly growing popula
tion."
The four countries of Latin America and the Caribbean that mention population pressure on health services (see Table 8) repre
sent 22 per cent of the area's countries under study but only 10