Ten types of population problems are discussed in this study. The term is defined here as any current or future situation that is view
ed by planners as a problem and whose causes are recognized in the plan as having some major demographic components. The objective, then, is to determine the perception of the development planners rather than to determine whether in fact the country has a popula
tion problem.
Several necessary qualifications arise from this definition.
Some plans directly refer to a demographic situation as a problem or discuss the problematic implications of the situation. For ex
ample, a high dependency ratio or a rapidly increasing school-age population may be described as a strain on resources or a burden on the labour force or a hindrance to educational goals. Such a refer
ence is considered an indication that the planners have recognized a
population problem. A demographic situation discussed objectively in a plan without any such reference is not classified as a pro
blem unless the overall thrust of the plan’s text implies recognition of a problem. Such judgments inevitably involve a subjective factor, but the need for them has arisen in only a few cases, and any errors could not have significantly overstated the level of problem percep
tion. The possibility also exists, of course, that some planners have perceived certain situations as population problems but for
some reason have intentionally or unintentionally not so described them in the plans.
Another qualification concerns the treatment of situations that have been recognized as problems but have not been clearly recognized as population problems. Obviously the problems dealt with by devel
opment planners are complex in causes and consequences. The causes themselves are complex and are perceived in various ways according to on e ’s ideology, training, interests, and experience. What may seem to some to be unemployment caused by population growth is likely to be perceived by others as the surplus labour assumed to be inherent in a capitalist society or, more commonly, as a shortage of jobs rather than an excess of people. Thus in this study a situation is classified as a population problem only when the development plan it
self makes a causal link between population growth or age structure and a social or economic problem, or if a population component is mentioned explicitly as one of several factors contributing direct
ly to a social or economic problem.
Shortages Perspective
One of the most important advantages of medium- and long-range plans
over short-term plans is that they permit .long-term trends to emerge more clearly, and a broader perspective on various problems may be gained. If it is estimated, for example, that x per cent of a
country*s population is presently without adequate housing, and that some very large number of housing units will have to be built within the next five years merely to keep that percentage from increasing, one may easily conclude that the problem does not reside wholly in a laggard construction industry. Yet many such social problems dis
cussed in medium-range development plans are still perceived as the results of shortages — shortages of jobs, schools, doctors, and so on. There are indeed shortages, but the reasons for them are often not fully examined or related to needs created by a growing popula
tion, even over the period covered by the plan. Why should this be, if, as has been said, medium-range plans provide perspective on emerg
ing trends? The answer seems to lie primarily in population projec
tions or the lack of them. When population projections are lacking or inadequate, it is all too easy to restrict one*s view of a short
age of houses, say, to the obvious reasons — lack of money to pay for them, lack of jobs that would provide that money, lack of invest
ment that would provide those jobs, and so on. The role of rapid population growth is less immediately evident. Countries that make strong use of population projections, on the other hand, are less inclined to view social problems as the results of shortages and more likely to view them in a framework of multiple causes, in which emerging trends, including those of population, are taken into
account.
Severity and Breadth of Problems
The perceived severity of population problems cannot be directly measured by this classification system. It is partly for this rea
son that extensive excerpts from the plans are presented in Part Two of Population and Planning in Developing Nations, A Review of Sixty Development Plans for the 1970s. The plan excerpts are not included in the thesis because they were too lengthy. The Bangladesh plan, for example, not only recognizes a broad range of problems but also perceives them as critical obstacles to development and devotes much attention to them. A country's recognition of the severity of
a particular problem cannot be reflected in this study's classifica
tion system. However, we can make inferences about the breadth of a country's problem recognition by examining the range of population problems the country specifically recognizes (see Tables 5-8).
Ommission of Problems
What can be inferred from a plan that omits any mention of specific or general population problems? It is not always easy to discover whether the omission is meaningful or not. This study's systematic content analysis of 10 types of problem, 8 demographic parameters, and 16 policy dimensions provides a framework for evaluating a particular omission. The breadth of problem recognition in a par
ticular country may be compared with the breadth of its demographic data and population policies. Specific problems or omissions of problems can in some cases be compared with corresponding demographic parameters. For example, nonrecognition of a school-age population problem gains in significance if it is accompanied by estimates of current and future school-age population. But inferences are limited
when one is restricted to the contents of a plan.
Why might members of a planning commission omit mention of popu
lation problems from their national development plan?
1. They did not have a population problem.
2. They had a population problem but did not realize it.
3. The planning was not taken seriously — it was carried out only for political or publicity reasons.
4. They realized there was a problem but either intentionally or unintentionally failed to mention it because:
(a) They were powerless to resolve it by either influencing the growth rate or accommodating to it.
(b) It would have been a political liability to do so.
(c) The situation was viewed as a social problem, and they were more interested in planning for the growth of the economic sectors.
(d) They were not reviewing problems, but outlining pro
grammes and budgets.
Recognition of Population Problems
Of the 60 development plans studied, 38 recognize some type of popu
lation problem (as defined in this study). These countries represent 81 per cent of the combined population of the countries under study.