7 Bus Patronage in Tyne and Wear
7.1 Bus Patronage Overview
7.1.4 Case Study – the Child All-Day Ticket (CAT)
The CAT was introduced in Sep 2008 to provide unlimited public transport across all modes for just £1 per day for Tyne and Wear children in possession of an under 16 card. The tables below show the changes in child travel following the introduction of the Child All-Day Ticket.
Change in child travel post-CAT
Comparison CAT Other CT Commercial
Mar 09 vs Sep 08 101% 0.5% -3.9%
Between Sep 2008 and Mar 2009, the number of journeys made using the CAT had more than doubled from 111,000 to 223,000 in just 6 months. The remaining child CT journeys (CT single and scholars free) collectively increased by just 0.5%, while child journeys made using commercial tickets fell by almost 4% over the same period.
The market share of the CAT has also increased (see table below). In the introductory month, CAT accounted for 12% of all child journeys. By November, this had risen to 19% and by the end of the year accounted for 21% of all child journeys made between September and March. The increase in the market share of CAT over the Christmas period reflects a decline in most child tickets, particularly scholars, while CAT journeys remained stable. Given the flexibility of the CAT, suitable for both school
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55Concessionary Travel & Integrated Ticketing department
and
Page | 63 he chart below shows how patronage is very similar, year on year, until the troduction of the CAT where the two lines diverge with considerable increases in
To highlight the significance of the increase in child journeys, the chart below sho s ow all bus patronage has changed over the same time frame. Where child journeys T
in
2008/09 compared to last year. Since the introduction of the CAT, only one period has shown a decline year on year (Dec 2008) and this is likely to be a result of the poor retail performance over Christmas with less high street footfall year on year (refer to section 4.6).
600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Thousands (000s)
Child journeys year on year 2007/08 2008/09
w h
increase significantly over the 6 periods to the end of the year, total bus journeys show a more steady increase, which is largely consistent throughout the year.
7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Thousands (000s)
All bus journeys year on year
2007/08 2008/09
CAT launched
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ne and Wear, as shown in the map below, with boarding counts carried out yearly at various stations to estimate annual station
The table e most recent
omparative figures. Note that currently not all stations are counted annually and
MetroCentre records the biggest increase with an estimated 24% higher us ge in 008 compared to 2006. The current travel patterns at the MetroCentre show that just 7
There are 18 main bus stations within Ty
usage. The infrequent nature of these counts means that they are not statistically robust, therefore some caution is required when interpreting the figures, however, they can provide some indication on trends.
Map showing location of all 18 bus stations in Tyne and Wear (© Google)
below shows the results of the 2008 counts and th c
most of the comparisons in the table refer to 2006.
Interchange 2006* 2008 % chg
MetroCentre 2,112,818 2,625,603 24%
Eldon Square 1,548,515 1,843,123 19%
Gateshead 3,480,204 3,889,744 12%
Galleries 1,681,535 1,796,866 7%
Four Lane Ends 447,243 420,397 -6%
Park Lane 3,164,887 2,650,103 -16%
* Eldon Square = 2007
Interchange passenger comparison
a 2
under half of staff and a quarter of visitors arrive by bus56. Eldon Square and Gateshead also record strong growth of 19% and 12% respectively. However, Park Lane saw passenger numbers fall by 16% over the 2 years – a loss of over ½ million journeys. Similarly, Metro patronage at Park Lane also records a drop between 2006/07 and 2008/09 of 5%, which, also strange in the context of overall growth elsewhere, highlights the interconnected nature of bus and Metro travel at this station.
7.2 Showcase Services
A number of major bus schemes are partly funded by Nexus including Route 19, Quaylink, LinkUp and TaxiLink/Card. This section looks at these services in more detail.
7.2.1 Route 19
Route 19 is a frequent bus service that goes to areas of North Tyneside that can be difficult to reach without a car. It connects with Metro at Northumberland Park and Percy Main, as well as the Shields Ferry. The route includes some stretches of road that only Route 19 can use.
Over the last few years, the R19 service has performed well with increasing passenger numbers year on year. However, 2008/09 marks the first annual decline as shown in table below.
R19 annual patronage
Year Pax % chg
2005/06 325,518
2006/07 468,136 44%
2007/08 498,843 7%
2008/09 453,153 -9%
All of the growth recorded in 2007/08 has been offset by the significant decline in 2008/09 with the patronage levels falling below that of 2006/07. The table below shows patronage on R19 by period and the yearly total. We report patronage decline in every period of 2008/09 with an overall annual decline of 9%.
56Capital Shopping
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R19 periodic patronage
Period 2007/08 2008/09 % chg 12/04/08 39,770 36,314 -9%
10/05/08 39,924 37,264 -7%
07/06/08 39,246 35,912 -8%
05/07/08 38,931 37,427 -4%
02/08/08 42,130 38,427 -9%
30/08/08 39,502 37,106 -6%
27/09/08 38,368 35,069 -9%
25/10/08 37,862 35,150 -7%
22/11/08 38,246 34,323 -10%
20/12/08 38,139 33,937 -11%
17/01/09 28,098 25,110 -11%
14/02/09 38,810 33,174 -15%
14/03/09 39,817 33,940 -15%
ANNUAL 498,843 453,153 -9%
The decline in patronage is not isolated within 2008/09, as the first year on year decline was recorded back in October 2007 and as the chart below shows, it has yet to record year on year growth since.
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
14/04/2007 12/05/2007 09/06/2007 07/07/2007 04/08/2007 01/09/2007 29/09/2007 27/10/2007 24/11/2007 22/12/2007 19/01/2008 16/02/2008 15/03/2008 12/04/2008 10/05/2008 07/06/2008 05/07/2008 02/08/2008 30/08/2008 27/09/2008 25/10/2008 22/11/2008 20/12/2008 17/01/2009 14/02/2009 14/03/2009
R19 patronage change year on year
One full year of decline
In the previous reports from Business Intelligence, it was noted how the cause and effect relationship had already occurred and how it was important to note that subsequent reports showing the same level of decline did not reflect a worsening scenario. However, the line in the chart above indicates a full year of decline and therefore the 6 periods to the right of the line, the last 6 periods of 2008/09, illustrate the decline has continued beyond a normal cause and effect relationship. This shows that the decline in patronage on R19 is increasing rather than levelling off.
7.2.2 Quaylink
QuayLink links the Quayside areas of the River Tyne with the centres of Newcastle upon Tyne and Gateshead and to other local public transport connections. The service is operated using 10 hybrid accessible buses with a distinctive appearance, enhanced by a unique livery.
Stagecoach North East operates the service under contract for Newcastle and Gateshead Councils and Nexus.
The QuayLink service was introduced as a high quality public transport service for the recently redeveloped and expanding Quayside area, which, although extremely close to the centres of Newcastle and Gateshead, was not sufficiently served by existing bus services, and consequently it was dominated by car usage. The Quayside roads are also not located on any of the traditional bus routes.
Quaylink consists of two services, the Q1 and the Q2. The Q1 service serves Central Station, Monument, The Sage Gateshead, Gateshead College's Baltic Campus, Baltic and Gateshead Interchange. The Q2 service serves Haymarket, Monument and travels along the Quayside to Ouseburn and now continues on to St Peter's Basin.
Both services travel between Newcastle Quayside and Monument via Dean and Grey Street.
The Quaylink service has performed well in 2008/09 with an increase in patronage of 19% overall. The table below show that over the course of the year, the service generated almost 140,000 additional journeys on the previous year. Although the Q2 service generates the most patronage growth in actual terms, the biggest proportionate improvement was recorded on the Q1 service with an increase of 20%.
Annual Quaylink patronage
Service 2007/08 2008/09 % chg No. chg
Q1 service 340,661 409,148 20% 68,487
Q2 service 389,650 460,812 18% 71,162
QUAYLINK 730,311 869,960 19% 139,649
The chart below shows the year on year patronage change for each of the 13 periods of 2008/09.
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Quaylink patronage change year on year
Q1 Q2
Despite an impressive performance, both services show a slowing down in the rate of growth. The Q2 service records significant year on year increases at the beginning of the year which is far in excess of those seen on the Q1. However, this pattern changes in September with the Q1 service recording higher year on year growth since then. The opening of Gateshead College’s Baltic Campus in September 2008 increased the passenger base of the Q1 service and contributed to the year on year growth of more than 20%, which was recorded in most months between September 2008 and March 2009.
For the Q2 service, the slowing in the growth rate began as early as July 2008 and has continued to date with the last period actually registering a 0.5% decline – the first year on year decline recorded since the service commenced. Although the growth in the Q1 service also slowed around this time, the main slowdown for Q1, which has continued to date, occurred in November 2008.
However, it is important to note that it is unlikely for the service to maintain the significantly high levels of patronage growth it had previously recorded, and that this slowing of the growth may be a natural ceiling for patronage on the service.
Furthermore, as personal spending has been reduced as a result of the economic conditions. This may have led to a two-fold impact; fewer journeys made to the entertainment areas of both quaysides and some of those journeys which are still made may have been substituted for walking. The weekend (including Friday) shows the lowest increase in patronage at 15% compared to a 20% increase during the week. The chart below shows that collectively, the Quaylink service records year on year growth in every period since April 2007. However, it is unlikely that this trend is Page | 68
sustainable and this needs to be taken into context when observing the slowing rate of growth towards the end of 2008/09.
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Total Quaylink patronage by period
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
The level of patronage should be closely monitored over the early part of 2009/10 to determine whether this slowing rate of growth is an indication of the service reaching its patronage ceiling or whether it is the first signs of a genuine patronage decline.
7.2.3 LinkUp
LinkUp is a bus service which is booked by phone and is available to everyone in Tyne and Wear. It provides journeys at times when regular services are not operating or where direct services are not available. LinkUp operates within a 16 zone area with travel permitted within each zone and, in some cases, to adjacent zones.
LinkUp, was originally introduced as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) service, however, it also runs fixed routes as part of its provision, which have increased significantly since the service began. DRT patronage on LinkUp has fallen year on year with a loss of over 13,000 journeys, although some of this decline will be directly related to the introduction of additional fixed routes and a shift of passengers using the new fixed routes in place of the Demand Responsive element. The table below shows the combined patronage on LinkUp for each of the 5 districts.
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LinkUp pat
7.2.4 TaxiLink
TaxiLink was a specialised service for residents of Tyne and Wear who were elderly or disabled and was launched in
July 2006 to replace the previous Care Service network and cost a flat rate of £1 per journey. The service was modified again in October 2008 to become TaxiCard, which made significant changes to the way the service operated and therefore a direct comparison between the two services is not practical.
Throughout its operating period, TaxiLink carried almost 341,000 passenger journeys.
In 2007/08 (the only full financial year the service operated), it carried in excess of 160,000 journeys – 17% over target58. However, patronage began declining at the start of 2008/09 and with the exception of one period of growth, continued this downward trend. The table below shows the number of journeys carried in the operating periods of 2008/09 compared to the equivalent periods in 2007/08.
TaxiLink patronage (April to September inclusive)
TaxiLink 2007/08 2008/09 % chg No. chg
Pax 87,820 84,916 -3% -2,904
Over the 7 relevant periods, patronage on the service fell 3% in 2008/09 with a loss of almost 3,000 journeys. The TaxiLink service was changed for a number of reasons59 which include the following:
• There were long periods during the evenings when the taxis stood idle, while still being charged to Nexus (50% under-utilised between 20.00 and 23.00).
• The total cost of cancellations amounted to (at least) £159,000
• The service provision was considerably under-resourced both in terms of call-taking and provision of taxis
• Only a small number of people were able to use the service frequently due to resource constraints
• Service was unequal: of a membership of 4500, just 80 people were getting 25% of journeys
These and other similar factors inevitably resulted in the transition from TaxiLink to TaxiCard.
58Nexus website
59Report on TaxiLink November 2007
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7.2.5 TaxiCard
TaxiCard began operating in October 2008 and uses smartcard technology. The passenger uses it to pay for
part of their journey by taxi. It has £100 worth of taxi fares pre-loaded but the user pays the first £1.50 of any journey, then the next £2.50 is deducted from the card. Any remaining fare is paid for by the passenger. While the cost to the passenger is considerably more than on TaxiLink, the availability of the service and convenience in booking (bookings can be made at the time of travel if taxis are available whereas TaxiLink journeys had to be made no later than the day before) are designed to make the system more user-friendly.
In the 6 periods TaxiCard has been running, it has carried in excess of 32,000 journeys.
Although this is significantly fewer than the 75,000 carried on TaxiLink over the same period in 2007/08, the system results in reduced costs which can be redistributed to benefit all members rather than just a minority (whereby 1.8% of members used 25%
of journeys under TaxiLink). Furthermore, in conjunction with the introduction of TaxiCard, a Companion Card scheme was also launched which allows carers to travel free with disabled users on the convention bus network. Therefore, while a direct comparison would show a decline in passenger numbers on TaxiCard compared to the previous TaxiLink, it is important to note a number of these journeys would have been displaced to the conventional network.
The 32,000 TaxiCard journeys were made by 2,682 members with 670 being medium or high users in contrast to the TaxiLink where 80 users made 25% of all journeys. The cost per journey to Nexus was £3.28, a reduction of 60% compared to TaxiLink.
7.3 Bus User Profile
External research60 is commissioned by Nexus on an annual basis to assess public opinion on bus services in Tyne and Wear of both bus users and non-users. From these surveys we are able to develop an indicative profile of bus users in Tyne & Wear. The figures referred to below are based on the findings from bus users only. The recent bus user surveys suggest that around 55% of bus users are female. While this figure may be biased towards a higher survey participation rate of females, it is supported
60Bus Survey:Woodholmes (2004 & 2007), northeast one (2005), Explain (2006), SMS (2008)
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by the Department for Transport which showed 77% of males held a driving licence compared to just 54% of women61 and therefore we would expect a higher proportion of female bus users.
7.3.1 Age Profile62
For the age split there is a strong degree of consistency with the Tyne & Wear population as a whole. The youngest group (17-24) was slightly over-represented on bus compared to the wider population but the breakdown shows how generally, the age of bus users is representative of the population in Tyne and Wear.
Tyne and Wear User Profile - Age
Ages Bus Users Population Variation
17 to 24 19% 14% 5%
25 to 34 13% 16% -3%
35 to 44 16% 18% -2%
45 to 54 17% 17% 0%
55 to 64 16% 14% 1%
65 and over 19% 21% -2%
7.3.2 Bus User Ethnic Profile63
The ethnic profile of bus users largely follows the Tyne and Wear profile with the exception of the Asian population, with only 1% of bus users being of Asian origin compared to 2.8% of the Tyne and Wear population. The Tyne and Wear figures are influenced by high Asian populations in Newcastle and South Tyneside. However, for 3.1% of the sample, the ethnic origin is not known, and it is possible that a higher proportion of this group will belong to a minority group. In terms of the white majority, 94% of bus users fall into this category compared to 95% in Tyne and Wear showing a strong similarity between bus users and the population as a whole.
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61Department for Transport, Regional Transport Trends 2008
62Annual Bus User Survey 2008 by SMS (Bus Users), ONS Mid Year Estimates 2007 (Population )
63Nexus Market Research Bus Security research 2007 – 2008, ONS Mid Year Estimates 2006 (Population)
Tyne and Wear User Profile - Ethnicity
Ethnic group Bus Users Population Variation
White 94.5% 94.6% 0.1%
Mixed 0.1% 0.8% 0.7%
Asian or Asian GB 0.9% 2.8% 1.9%
Black or Black GB 0.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Chinese and other 0.4% 1.0% 0.6%
Missing 3.1% - 3.1%
Note: Bus User ethnicity is provided as an indicative figure only as the meta-analysis has been carried out on surveys where the main purpose has not been to establish a user profile.
7.3.3 Customer Satisfaction
In the annual Bus User / Non User survey, respondents are asked to rate their satisfaction on a number of aspects of bus travel. The table below shows the satisfaction score (out of 100) from the 2007 and 2008 surveys.
Bus User Satisfaction (Score / 100)
Measure 2007 2008 % chg
Comfort on bus 76.6 75.3 -2%
Speed of bus services 76.4 75.2 -2%
Reliability of bus 75.6 74.7 -1%
Security to/from bus 77.8 74.5 -4%
Security on bus 78.4 74.3 -5%
Cleanliness of bus 73.9 72.4 -2%
Helpfulness of driver 73.7 72.2 -2%
Punctuality of bus 74.0 71.6 -3%
Range of tickets 70.6 69.1 -2%
Behaviour of passengers 72.5 64.9 -10%
Cost of tickets 60.2 53.7 -11%
Unfortunately, despite an increase in bus patronage, satisfaction has fallen across all categories, most notably the cost of tickets. However, take the role modal shift will have in these scores; as previous car users have switched to bus through necessity rather than natural choice, it is likely this group will have lower levels of satisfaction (hence why they didn’t use the bus before). Further still, the economic downturn has resulted in people taking more care and attention towards their own personal spending and the fall in satisfaction in costs may be more of a reflection of the wider economy than a particular problem with bus travel.
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7.3.4 Journey Purpose
The table below shows the journey purpose of bus users taken from the Annual Bus User/Non user surveys over the past 5 years64. Overall, the split of journey purpose is relatively stable with only minor changes year on year and which, in itself, may be related more to the fact the research is carried out once a year.
Annual Bus User/Non User Survey (Bus User results)
Journey Purpose 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Ave
Work 17% 20% 13% 19% 16% 17%
Education 4% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3%
Shopping 56% 56% 61% 54% 58% 57%
Visit Friend/relative 5% 3% 6% 3% 6% 5%
Leisure/entertainment 10% 9% 11% 11% 7% 9%
Health visit 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Other 9% 10% 6% 7% 12% 9%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
A meta-analysis of the 5 years data shows 57% of bus journeys are for shopping purposes and a further 17% for travelling to and from work. This has potentially serious consequences given the current economic conditions. As unemployment rises and incomes fall, work, non-food shopping and leisure journeys may also decline. This suggests that the potential impact of the current economic situation on public transport usage could be far reaching. However, it is important to note this has not yet been observed and bus services appear to have capitalised on the economic downturn with increased bus patronage over the last year.
7.3.5 Journey Frequency
The table below shows the journey frequency of bus users taken from the Annual Bus User surveys over the last 2 years.
Annual Bus User/Non User Survey (Bus User results)
Journey Frequency 2007 2008 Ave
10 or more times per week 22% 19% 21%
5 - 9 times per week 29% 29% 29%
1 - 4 times per week 35% 33% 34%
Less than once per week 5% 7% 6%
Once per month 3% 4% 3%
Less than once per month 3% 6% 5%
Never 3% 2% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100%
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64All figures weighted to 100%
On average, over the 2 years observed, 84% of bus users are regular users (i.e. use the bus at least once a week). Over a fifth of users (21%) use the bus 10 or more times which suggests commuters and education trips. The previous table supports this with 20% of journeys made for these reasons.
7.4 Bus Performance
How well the bus network is performing is a subjective measure and includes a variety
How well the bus network is performing is a subjective measure and includes a variety