6 Public Transport in Tyne and Wear
6.4 Looking Beyond 2008/09
6.4.8 Olympics in 2012
Looking beyond 2009/10, the London Olympics in 2012 may not at first appear relevant to the region. However, St James Park has been identified as a venue for hosting Olympic football
matches. Not only will this raise the profile of Newcastle to a wider international audience, it could also have a significant impact on the demand for public transport services as spectators arrive from all over the country and the rest of the world.
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7
with analysiis broken down
Page 5
7.1 Bus Patronage Overview
Patronage on bus in 2008/09 was more than 140 million, the highest figure for 7 years (2001/02: 147 million) recording growth of 5% year on year. The last three years have seen a reversal of a prolonged period of patronage decline on bus which saw 17 consecutive years of decline.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Annual Bus patronage
Yr on yr chg (%) Pax
The graph shows that in the long-term, bus patronage declined significantly year on year until 2006/07, which was when the local free concessionary travel scheme for the elderly and disabled was introduced. As a result of this scheme, patronage increased by 3.2% in 2006/07. Following a stagnant year in 2007/08 where a marginal growth in concessionary travel was off set by a decline in adult fare paying journeys, patronage increased significantly in 2008/09 by 5% - an increase of 6.7m journeys.
Last year marked the beginning of the economic downturn and subsequent recession. However, despite the recession being announced towards the end of 2008 and officially confirmed at the beginning of 2009, it actually started in the summer of 2008. Fuel prices in the North peaked in July 2008 costing 23% and 37% more on the previous year for petrol and diesel respectively.
The upward trend in fuel costs actual began back in the autumn of 2007, and after 6 months of successive rises in price another trend began to emerge. In March 2008 the number of adult fare paying journeys on bus recorded a small year on year growth, and this trend continued and became more significant as the year progressed. In July 2008, the month fuel costs reached their peak; the number of adult fare paying journeys on bus was almost 12% higher than in July 2007. At the end Page | 56
of 2008/09 patronage in adult fare paying journeys on bus had increased by 2.6%, which represented a year on year growth of 2.1 million journeys. Adult bus patronage continued to increase after fuel prices started to decline, however, the strength of the relationship between adult bus patronage and fuel prices varies significantly depending on the time frame measured as shown in tables below.
April to July 08 Aug 08 to Mar 09
Fuel type Correlation Fuel type Correlation
Petrol 0.59 Petrol 0.17
Diesel 0.58 Diesel 0.17
Between the start of 2008/09 and the peak in fuel prices in July 2008, the correlation factor is significantly strong at 0.59 for petrol and 0.58 for diesel. This means that 58-59% of the increase in bus patronage could be explained by rising fuel costs. However, in the months after this (Aug 08 to Mar 09),
when fuel prices began to decline the correlations differ significantly. For both fuel types, the correlation factor with adult bus patronage is just 0.17. This demonstrates how the initial fuel crisis had a strong and lasting effect on travel habits even after the high fuel prices subsided, as the correlation between price and patronage weakened.
It also has to be taken in the wider context with other economic conditions – the fuel crisis was one of many self contained situations which signalled the economic downturn and resultant recession. Although fuel prices returned to a more favourable level53, unemployment continued to increase, house prices have declined, the cost of food increased and major manufacturing industries have cut production. This has all led to reduced personal spending where possible54, including using cheaper methods of transport.
7.1.1 Commercial and Secured Patronage
The growth in bus patronage is entirely due to an increase in commercial patronage as the table below shows.
53At the time of writing, fuel prices had again increased above £1 per litre 54Populus Survey on behalf of The Times 2009
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Bus patronage - commercial vs secured (000s)
Service Patronage
2007/08
Patronage 2008/09
# chg yr on yr
% chg yr on yr
Commercial 127,402 134,666 7,265 5.7%
Secured 6,290 5,726 -564 -9.0%
TOTAL 133,691 140,392 6,701 5.0%
Commercial bus patronage increased by more than 7 million journeys in 2008/09 (a 5.7% increase). However, we report a decline in secured services of 9% or 564,000 journeys. Changes to some contracts from ‘minimum cost’ to ‘minimum subsidy’ will have inflated this figure slightly. The low market share of secured services to the whole bus network (4%) means the overall effect is small resulting in a net increase for bus travel of 5.0%.
7.1.2 Passenger Type
All passenger groups record a year on year growth with Elderly & Disabled Concessionary Travel, referred to as ‘Elderly’ in tables below, recording the highest increase both proportionally at 9.5% and in the actual numbers at almost 4 million additional journeys.
Bus patronage by passenger type (000s)
Pax type Patronage
2007/08
Patronage 2008/09
No. chg yr on yr
% chg yr on yr
Adult 81,525 83,682 2,157 2.6%
Elderly 41,101 45,025 3,925 9.5%
Child 11,066 11,685 619 5.6%
TOTAL 133,691 140,392 6,701 5.0%
Overall, adult fare paying patronage is responsible for the vast majority of bus journeys, accounting for 60% of all journeys. The 2008/09 split is shown below.
59.6%
32.1%
8.3%
Bus patronage by passenger type
Adult Elderly Child
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Child journeys make up 8.3% of all journeys which remains unchanged from 2007/08.
However, there has been a slight increase in the market share of elderly journeys, up from 30.7% last year and thus a reduction in the share of adult journeys from 61%. In terms of additional journeys, the growth in elderly travel is responsible for 59% of all observed growth while adult journeys make up 32% of the increase. Child journeys therefore are responsible for the remaining 9%.
Prior to the introduction of the Child All-Day Ticket (CAT) in September 2008, child journeys had been reporting a cumulative decline year on year throughout 2008/09.
However, since its introduction child travel has recorded significant year on year growth and it is therefore likely that this growth will continue in 2009/10. The chart below shows how the patronage of each of the three passenger groups changed year on year in each period. Note the significant increases in child travel after the introduction of the CAT – despite the decline in December 2008 which will, at least in part, be influenced by the economic downturn and reduced high street footfall.
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
4 weeks ending
Year on year change by passenger type
Adult fare paying Elderly CT Child
CAT
The chart above shows the year on year growth in adult patronage began in April and then peaked in July, which is the same month when fuel prices peaked. This trend highlights the relationship between fuel costs and patronage, and demonstrates how this relationship can influence a change in peoples travel habits.
However, since increases in adult patronage are also observed after prices came down again, we can be confident the increase in adult patronage is not solely down to higher fuel prices. The wider economic conditions are the most likely contributor to increased public transport use as most people, whether through choice or necessity, attempted to reduce their outgoings during the recession. Food prices in particular put a lot of strain on household finances as shown in section 4.6.
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7.1.3 Ticket Type
Despite all passenger types recording year on year growth in patronage, not all ticket types have performed as well. Despite a net increase of 6.7 million journeys, the tickets which are in decline are collectively responsible for a loss of 4.1 million journeys. The table below shows the breakdown of patronage by individual ticket type.
Annual patronage by ticket type (000s)
Ticket Type 2007/08 2008/09 # change % change
Adult Single Pax 29,080 26,294 -2,786 -9.6%
Adult Transfare Pax 817 502 -316 -38.6%
Adult Return Pax 2,010 1,702 -308 -15.3%
Adult XB & Others 5,004 5,542 538 10.8%
Child travel ^ 11,066 11,685 619 5.6%
Elderly & Disabled CT 41,101 45,025 3,925 9.5%
NTL Pax 14,524 13,796 -728 -5.0%
Season Tickets Pax 30,090 35,847 5,757 19.1%
Totals 133,691 140,392 6,701 5.0%
^Significant changes in child ticketing makes individual ticket comparison impossible
The biggest decline is seen among adult single ticket users where a loss of 2.8 million journeys is recorded. However, a loss is also seen in adult transfare and return tickets of 0.624 million collectively. Therefore, all three main adult ‘daily’ tickets have recorded year on year declines totalling 3.4 million, despite the adult passenger group making an additional 2.2 million trips overall. This discrepancy is accounted for by the significant growth in journeys made with season tickets, which recorded almost 6 million additional journeys year on year – an increase of almost 20%.
Previous sections have highlighted that there is some evidence of modal shift occurring from the private car to public transport due to the high fuel prices of 2008, the continuing recession into 2009 and other economic related factors. If we accept that most of this modal shift will have occurred among regular journey makers, as even with higher costs, the occasional car journey is unlikely to be abandoned, then the significant increase in season ticket journeys would support these findings.
The overall figures suggest there has been a significant shift in existing users from daily tickets to season tickets that provide better value for money, and that the season ticket was also the product of choice for new users on the buses.
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Elderly travel noted growth of 3.9 million journeys (9.5%). Due to the different method of recording elderly concessionary journeys made by non-Tyne and Wear residents prior to, and subsequent to, the introduction of free national concessionary travel, it is not possible to accurately break down elderly travel by resident location or direction.
However, it is estimated that 3.6% of journeys originating in Tyne and Wear are made by non-residents, primarily from Durham and Northumberland55. Of the total number of journeys, 4% are to destinations outside Tyne and Wear. For Tyne and Wear pass holders, only 1.3% of journeys are to destinations outside Tyne and Wear.
The increase in child travel is a recent phenomenon, as up to, and including, period 8 (Oct 2008), child patronage had been in a state of cumulative decline year on year.
The introduction of the Child All-Day Ticket (CAT), introduced in Sep 2008, is largely credited with reversing this trend, and this is explained further below.
7.1.4 Case Study – the Child All-Day Ticket (CAT)
The CAT was introduced in Sep 2008 to provide unlimited public transport across all modes for just £1 per day for Tyne and Wear children in possession of an under 16 card. The tables below show the changes in child travel following the introduction of the Child All-Day Ticket.
Change in child travel post-CAT
Comparison CAT Other CT Commercial
Mar 09 vs Sep 08 101% 0.5% -3.9%
Between Sep 2008 and Mar 2009, the number of journeys made using the CAT had more than doubled from 111,000 to 223,000 in just 6 months. The remaining child CT journeys (CT single and scholars free) collectively increased by just 0.5%, while child journeys made using commercial tickets fell by almost 4% over the same period.
The market share of the CAT has also increased (see table below). In the introductory month, CAT accounted for 12% of all child journeys. By November, this had risen to 19% and by the end of the year accounted for 21% of all child journeys made between September and March. The increase in the market share of CAT over the Christmas period reflects a decline in most child tickets, particularly scholars, while CAT journeys remained stable. Given the flexibility of the CAT, suitable for both school
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55Concessionary Travel & Integrated Ticketing department
and
Page | 63 he chart below shows how patronage is very similar, year on year, until the troduction of the CAT where the two lines diverge with considerable increases in
To highlight the significance of the increase in child journeys, the chart below sho s ow all bus patronage has changed over the same time frame. Where child journeys T
in
2008/09 compared to last year. Since the introduction of the CAT, only one period has shown a decline year on year (Dec 2008) and this is likely to be a result of the poor retail performance over Christmas with less high street footfall year on year (refer to section 4.6).
600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Thousands (000s)
Child journeys year on year 2007/08 2008/09
w h
increase significantly over the 6 periods to the end of the year, total bus journeys show a more steady increase, which is largely consistent throughout the year.
7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Thousands (000s)
All bus journeys year on year
2007/08 2008/09
CAT launched
Page | 64 .1.5 Bus Stations and Interchanges
ne and Wear, as shown in the map below, with boarding counts carried out yearly at various stations to estimate annual station
The table e most recent
omparative figures. Note that currently not all stations are counted annually and
MetroCentre records the biggest increase with an estimated 24% higher us ge in 008 compared to 2006. The current travel patterns at the MetroCentre show that just 7
There are 18 main bus stations within Ty
usage. The infrequent nature of these counts means that they are not statistically robust, therefore some caution is required when interpreting the figures, however, they can provide some indication on trends.
Map showing location of all 18 bus stations in Tyne and Wear (© Google)
below shows the results of the 2008 counts and th c
most of the comparisons in the table refer to 2006.
Interchange 2006* 2008 % chg
MetroCentre 2,112,818 2,625,603 24%
Eldon Square 1,548,515 1,843,123 19%
Gateshead 3,480,204 3,889,744 12%
Galleries 1,681,535 1,796,866 7%
Four Lane Ends 447,243 420,397 -6%
Park Lane 3,164,887 2,650,103 -16%
* Eldon Square = 2007
Interchange passenger comparison
a 2
under half of staff and a quarter of visitors arrive by bus56. Eldon Square and Gateshead also record strong growth of 19% and 12% respectively. However, Park Lane saw passenger numbers fall by 16% over the 2 years – a loss of over ½ million journeys. Similarly, Metro patronage at Park Lane also records a drop between 2006/07 and 2008/09 of 5%, which, also strange in the context of overall growth elsewhere, highlights the interconnected nature of bus and Metro travel at this station.
7.2 Showcase Services
A number of major bus schemes are partly funded by Nexus including Route 19, Quaylink, LinkUp and TaxiLink/Card. This section looks at these services in more detail.
7.2.1 Route 19
Route 19 is a frequent bus service that goes to areas of North Tyneside that can be difficult to reach without a car. It connects with Metro at Northumberland Park and Percy Main, as well as the Shields Ferry. The route includes some stretches of road that only Route 19 can use.
Over the last few years, the R19 service has performed well with increasing passenger numbers year on year. However, 2008/09 marks the first annual decline as shown in table below.
R19 annual patronage
Year Pax % chg
2005/06 325,518
2006/07 468,136 44%
2007/08 498,843 7%
2008/09 453,153 -9%
All of the growth recorded in 2007/08 has been offset by the significant decline in 2008/09 with the patronage levels falling below that of 2006/07. The table below shows patronage on R19 by period and the yearly total. We report patronage decline in every period of 2008/09 with an overall annual decline of 9%.
56Capital Shopping
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R19 periodic patronage
Period 2007/08 2008/09 % chg 12/04/08 39,770 36,314 -9%
10/05/08 39,924 37,264 -7%
07/06/08 39,246 35,912 -8%
05/07/08 38,931 37,427 -4%
02/08/08 42,130 38,427 -9%
30/08/08 39,502 37,106 -6%
27/09/08 38,368 35,069 -9%
25/10/08 37,862 35,150 -7%
22/11/08 38,246 34,323 -10%
20/12/08 38,139 33,937 -11%
17/01/09 28,098 25,110 -11%
14/02/09 38,810 33,174 -15%
14/03/09 39,817 33,940 -15%
ANNUAL 498,843 453,153 -9%
The decline in patronage is not isolated within 2008/09, as the first year on year decline was recorded back in October 2007 and as the chart below shows, it has yet to record year on year growth since.
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
14/04/2007 12/05/2007 09/06/2007 07/07/2007 04/08/2007 01/09/2007 29/09/2007 27/10/2007 24/11/2007 22/12/2007 19/01/2008 16/02/2008 15/03/2008 12/04/2008 10/05/2008 07/06/2008 05/07/2008 02/08/2008 30/08/2008 27/09/2008 25/10/2008 22/11/2008 20/12/2008 17/01/2009 14/02/2009 14/03/2009
R19 patronage change year on year
One full year of decline
In the previous reports from Business Intelligence, it was noted how the cause and effect relationship had already occurred and how it was important to note that subsequent reports showing the same level of decline did not reflect a worsening scenario. However, the line in the chart above indicates a full year of decline and therefore the 6 periods to the right of the line, the last 6 periods of 2008/09, illustrate the decline has continued beyond a normal cause and effect relationship. This shows that the decline in patronage on R19 is increasing rather than levelling off.
7.2.2 Quaylink
QuayLink links the Quayside areas of the River Tyne with the centres of Newcastle upon Tyne and Gateshead and to other local public transport connections. The service is operated using 10 hybrid accessible buses with a distinctive appearance, enhanced by a unique livery.
Stagecoach North East operates the service under contract for Newcastle and Gateshead Councils and Nexus.
The QuayLink service was introduced as a high quality public transport service for the recently redeveloped and expanding Quayside area, which, although extremely close to the centres of Newcastle and Gateshead, was not sufficiently served by existing bus services, and consequently it was dominated by car usage. The Quayside roads are also not located on any of the traditional bus routes.
Quaylink consists of two services, the Q1 and the Q2. The Q1 service serves Central Station, Monument, The Sage Gateshead, Gateshead College's Baltic Campus, Baltic and Gateshead Interchange. The Q2 service serves Haymarket, Monument and travels along the Quayside to Ouseburn and now continues on to St Peter's Basin.
Both services travel between Newcastle Quayside and Monument via Dean and Grey Street.
The Quaylink service has performed well in 2008/09 with an increase in patronage of 19% overall. The table below show that over the course of the year, the service generated almost 140,000 additional journeys on the previous year. Although the Q2 service generates the most patronage growth in actual terms, the biggest proportionate improvement was recorded on the Q1 service with an increase of 20%.
Annual Quaylink patronage
Service 2007/08 2008/09 % chg No. chg
Q1 service 340,661 409,148 20% 68,487
Q2 service 389,650 460,812 18% 71,162
QUAYLINK 730,311 869,960 19% 139,649
The chart below shows the year on year patronage change for each of the 13 periods of 2008/09.
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
12/04/08 10/05/08 07/06/08 05/07/08 02/08/08 30/08/08 27/09/08 25/10/08 22/11/08 20/12/08 17/01/09 14/02/09 14/03/09
Quaylink patronage change year on year
Q1 Q2
Despite an impressive performance, both services show a slowing down in the rate of growth. The Q2 service records significant year on year increases at the beginning of the year which is far in excess of those seen on the Q1. However, this pattern changes in September with the Q1 service recording higher year on year growth since then. The opening of Gateshead College’s Baltic Campus in September 2008 increased the passenger base of the Q1 service and contributed to the year on year growth of more than 20%, which was recorded in most months between September 2008 and March 2009.
For the Q2 service, the slowing in the growth rate began as early as July 2008 and has continued to date with the last period actually registering a 0.5% decline – the first year on year decline recorded since the service commenced. Although the growth in the Q1 service also slowed around this time, the main slowdown for Q1, which has continued to date, occurred in November 2008.
However, it is important to note that it is unlikely for the service to maintain the significantly high levels of patronage growth it had previously recorded, and that this slowing of the growth may be a natural ceiling for patronage on the service.
Furthermore, as personal spending has been reduced as a result of the economic conditions. This may have led to a two-fold impact; fewer journeys made to the entertainment areas of both quaysides and some of those journeys which are still made may have been substituted for walking. The weekend (including Friday) shows the lowest increase in patronage at 15% compared to a 20% increase during the week. The chart below shows that collectively, the Quaylink service records year on year growth in every period since April 2007. However, it is unlikely that this trend is Page | 68
sustainable and this needs to be taken into context when observing the slowing rate
sustainable and this needs to be taken into context when observing the slowing rate