54 centres have, on average, held their own or moved up the size hierarchy.

In 1947, four towns had over 10,000 people compared with seventeen in 1971, while the number of towns in the size range 4,000-9,999 declined from twenty-one to eighteen over the same period. Large towns moved up the size hierarchy more quickly than smaller towns, because a large initial population creates greater potential for absolute growth, although in

relative terms smaller towns frequently grew faster than larger ones. 2.6 Settlement Size and Population Redistribution

Despite the general tendency for towns of all sizes to continue to grow, the relative number of people living in small towns has fallen since the end of the Second World War. In 1947, 65 percent of the non­

metropolitan urban population lived in towns of less than 10,000, but by 1971 the proportion had fallen to 39 percent. This trend was due to the emergence of new growth centres in the post-war period and to the

expansion of existing towns.

As noted above, thirteen towns in Victoria grew beyond a population size of 10,000 between 1947 and 1971. While rates of growth may be more significant than the attainment of a given population size, the figure of 10,000 is a convenient bench-mark for distingtiishing between 'large' and

'small' towns in Victoria. Towns attaining populations of 10,000 or more during the post-war period frequently had a complex of factors involved in

their growth, since urban expansion usually entails a diversification of the economic base of towns. Manufacturing industries, for example, have been attracted to towns which gained their initial growth impetus from other functions. Among the important growth factors was an expanding demand for rural servicing which affected towns in areas of intensive agriculture, such as Shepparton and Mildura. Horsham, which dominates the

Fairbairn, Victorian Towns as Service Centres, p.261. The threshold size, however, might be expected to vary over time and space.

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Only three centres are known to have declined below 950 in the

interval 1947-66, namely Irymple, Bogong and Clunes. These centres are not included in Table 2.2.

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servicing needs of a less densely settled but extensive rural hinterland grew rapidly as well. The establishment or expansion of a dominant function played a key role in the emergence of a few large towns.

Especially important were industries such as electricity generation for Moe-Yallourn and Morwell, paper manufacturing for Traralgon, and oil and natural gas processing for Sale. Three other towns - Mornlngton-Balcombe, Dromana-Sorrento and Werribee - pasöed the 10,000 population size mainly because of their close links with Melbourne. At the 1971 census,

Mornington and Dromana had become incorporated into urban Melbourne.

The main component of the relative shift of population to larger towns, however, was the expansion of Geelong, which contributed 23 percent of the

growth of non-metropolitan urban centres 1947-71. Geelong, with a population of 115,047 in 1971, representing an increase of 117 percent since 1947,

acquired a diverse industrial structure in the post-war period, the main emphasis being on port-oriented industries such as oil refining, aluminium smelting, fertiliser manufacturing and the bulk handling of wheat for export. The other two major towns in Victoria, Ballarat (1971 pop. 58,854) and

Bendigo (45,860) had slower growth rates and together contributed 10 percent of the growth of the non-metropolitan urban sector 1947-71.

Over all, the 'other urban' population grew by 50 percent 1947-71 compared with 87 percent for Melbourne. The total annual growth rate of these towns in 1966-71 was about half the annual growth for 1947-54. This downward trend is partly related to population decline in rural areas, as well as to technological change which has caused towns to approach

redundancy as they are unable to compete with the main centres. A further important factor in the slowing of growth has been the completion of

developments such as irrigation schemes and the building of large factories. Melbourne, on the other hand, has continued to absorb massive

population increases, adding 1.1 million people in the twenty-four years from 1947. Over the same period, the proportion of the State population in Melbourne rose from 62 percent to 68 percent, at the expense both of

'other urban' centres and of rural areas, whose relative growth did not keep pace with Melbourne. (Table 2.3).

The population of 'rural' Victoria, which includes nearly all people in settlements of less than 1,000 people, increased by 17 percent 1947-71 though relative numbers in rural areas declined from 18 to 14 percent. (Table 2.3). Conflicting impressions of rural population trends can be obtained according to the choice of data sources. At each census, comparable figures for the

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TABLE 2.3 Percentage Victorian Population Urban and Rural 1947-1971.

1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 Percent Change 1947-1971 * Metropolitan 62.3 62.2 64.9 65.5 68.4 +6.1 Other urban 19.7 20.5 20.1 20.0 17.4 -2.3 Rural 17.8 17.0 14.8 14.4 14.2 -3.6 Migratory 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 Totals 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 •k

The Melbourne urban centre.

Sources: Unpublished collectors district data for 1947, 1954 and 1961; 1966 census and 1971 census field count

statement.

TABLE 2.4 Enumerations of the ’Rural* Population of Victoria 1947-1971.

Publication Year of Estimate

1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1947 Census 1954 Census 592,918 449,810 1961 Census 425,079 439,980 1966 Census 1971 Census 487,034 462,772 427,920 Revised Figures 365,102 416,599 434,213**

Revised figures for 1954 and 1961 based on collectors district data re-aggregated to 1966 boundaries by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Melbourne. Data for 1947 re-aggregated from collectors district data by the author.

The revised figure is lower than the estimate for 1961 published in the 1966 census because the revised figure is based on stationary boundaries. As a result, populations which did not become urban until

1966 are excluded from the 1961 rural total. Published data for 1961 could not be used in the present analysis because figures were not

supplied for all the rural areas and urban centres being studied.

preceding census have usually been prepared, taking into account changes in boundaries and definitions. Thus pairs of figures for the rural population of Victoria are available for most census years. Table 2.4 shows that the two counts for 1954 differ by about 25,000, and the figures for 1961 differ by nearly 50,000. While substantial differences in rural population

estimates occur at consecutive censuses, these differences are even more pronounced between non-consecutive censuses. Thus a comparison of the 1947

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and 1971 census figures indicates a 28 percent decline in the rural population of Victoria, a figure which is 45 percent below the accurate figure derived after taking into account changes in boundaries and definitions. The last row in Table 2.4 provides comparable statistics for rural areas through time. The comparable data for the whole of rural Victoria were derived from unpublished population totals for collectors districts, the smallest census units. Collectors districts were re-aggregated so that totals for 1947, 1954 and 1961 referred to

the urban and rural portions of shires defined in the 1966 census. The use of stationary boundaries from 1947 to 1966 inevitably caused some rural populations to be grouped with urban populations, but this was the only practicable means of obtaining comparable figures. Published census statistics were used for 1966 and 1971 without any adjustments because more realistic definitions had been applied at these dates in fixing the boundaries of rural areas and urban centres. Comparable data were obtained in this way not only for the rural population as a whole, but also for the populations of the rural portions of shires, ’other urban’ centres, urban Melbourne, and statistical divisions.

Among all the above populations, those of rural areas were most dramatically affected by boundary changes and alterations of definitions through time. Analysis of the revised figures in Table 2.4 shows that the rural population increased at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent between 1947 and 1966, then declined at an annual rate of 1.6 percent 1966-1971. The decline after 1966 was due partly to the absorption of former rural areas by towns, since urban centres were delimited with moving boundaries in 1966 and 1971. More generally, however, the decline reflected the dominant rural population trend in Victoria as the majority of shires experienced absolute losses between 1966 and 1971.

2.7 Rural Population Changes 1947-1971

Although rural population decline became a general trend between 1966 and 1971, the duration and severity of the decline varied from one part of Victoria to another, the main contrasts being between the coast, the centre and the Murray Valley. For example, in shires near Melbourne and Shepparton the decline was a new phenomenon while for shires in the Wimmera district rural depopulation was a process of some fifteen or more years duration.

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2.7.1 General Causes of Rural Population Change

The decline of population in rural areas has been due mainly to boundary changes and to internal migration prompted by three principal sets of factors: demographic aging, economic changes affecting rural service centres, and changes in rural industry itself. The effects of demographic aging are reflected in retirement migration, but more

particularly in the outward migration of school leavers and young adults, who are obliged to leave areas which are unable to absorb labour force

increases and offer no opportunities for vocational training or tertiary education. These same factors also result in net outward migration from many towns.

Since the concept of the 'rural** population in Australia includes nearly all settlements with less than 1,000 people, a large section of the rural population live in townships with urban functions. In 1971 there were 162 bounded localities in Victoria with between 200 and 999 people. The combined population of these townships was 74,107 representing about 17 percent of the rural total. Such townships have been affected not only by demographic aging, but also by the loss of trade to competitors in the larger towns. The family motor car has been particularly influential in reducing the clientele of businesses in rural townships, as people can now conveniently travel longer distances for their shopping needs and thereby obtain a better range and choice of goods and services. Also, depopulation of the surrounding countryside has further reduced the clientele and

viability of country businesses.

Changes in rural industry which have had adverse effects on population numbers include mechanisation, which has reduced the need for some farm labour, amalgamation of holdings, price fluctuations, climatic adversity, the wheat quota system, rising overheads and diminishing returns from small

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properties, and possibly an increase in 'town farming'. The decline in the number of farmers and farm workers, however, does not comprise the major element in the reduction of the labour force in rural Victoria:

non-farm occupations have made a greater contribution to such losses. In a

6

study of rural population change in Victoria 1954-19^1, Johnston calculated that 73 percent of the rural workforce decline occurred in non-primary

'Town Farming' is the practice whereby farmers live in towns and commute to their properties instead of living on the land.

* In this study 'demographic aging' denotes the progressive movement of birth cohorts into older age groups, rather than an increase in the proportion of older people.

7u

sectors of the workforce. Johnston's data, however, were biased towards urban occupations by the inclusion of non-municipal towns and portions of other towns in his definition of the rural population.~*7

Rural areas depopulated as a result of age structure changes might undergo rejuvenation when older farmers retire and young families take over their properties. The restoration of rural populations to the

numbers they attained in the 1960s, however, is unlikely given continuing inflation and the reduction or withdrawal of government subsidies to rural industry. In the future small farms or inefficient large farms will be increasingly difficult to operate profitably. Even in 1967, a survey conducted by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics estimated that 34 percent of farmers in Australia had a net income below $2,000 per year,

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