INTERNAL MIGRATION IN VICTORIA
by
Donald Trevor Rowland
A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Research School of Social Sciences
Australian National University
This thesis is based on original research I conducted as a scholar in the Department of Demography, Australian National University, from February 1972 to April 1975.
iii
ABSTRACT
T h i s t h e s i s i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e s a n d p o p u l a t i o n m o v e m e n t s i n V i c t o r i a b e t w e e n 1947 a n d 1 9 7 3 , m o s t e m p h a s i s b e i n g o n t h e p e r i o d s i n c e t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 s . T h e m a i n s t a t i s t i c a l s o u r c e s a r e t h e A u s t r a l i a n C e n s u s a n d a
s a m p l e s u r v e y o f 1 5 0 0 f a m i l i e s l i v i n g i n t e n n o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n t o w n s . The s t u d y i s d i v i d e d i n t o t wo m a i n s e c t i o n s . T h e f i r s t i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h
' U r b a n i s a t i o n a n d I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n ' a n d i n c l u d e s a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t i n A u s t r a l i a , t o g e t h e r w i t h a n a l y s e s o f p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e s i n V i c t o r i a n r u r a l a n d u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s , t h e s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s o f m o v e m e n t , a n d t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f m i g r a t i o n t o c o m m u n i t y g r o w t h a n d d e c l i n e . T h e s e c o n d s e c t i o n , e n t i t l e d ' M i g r a t i o n S e l e c t i v i t y a n d
C a u s a t i o n ' e x a m i n e s m i g r a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a l s b y a g e , s e x a n d b i r t h p l a c e , a s w e l l a s t h e r e s i d e n c e h i s t o r i e s o f m i g r a n t s a n d t h e a t t i t u d e s o f p e o p l e t o d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f c o m m u n i t i e s i n l o c a t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t V i c t o r i a . T h e f i n a l c h a p t e r i s a s y n t h e s i s a n d e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e p r i n c i p a l f i n d i n g s .
iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am indebted to many people who have assisted me during my course of study. My thanks are due especially to my supervisors, Dr C.A. Price and Dr R.J. Pryor, for their advice and comments on the text. Also, I
greatly appreciate the help I have received from Dr L.T. Ruzicka,
Mr K.R.W. Brewer, Dr I.H. Burnley, Professor R.G. Ward and two visitors
to the Department of Demography, Professor H.V. Mühsam and Professor B. Zimmer. Fellow students and other members of the Department have aided me through
many discussions and I have profited as well from the advice of staff and graduate students in the Department of Geography at Monash University.
Much of the statistical material I have used was provided by the officers of the Australian Bureau of Statistics to whom I am very grateful. My survey of population movement in Victoria was made possible by the
excellent support I received from the principals and teachers in twenty-three Victorian secondary schools, and I am indebted to them and to the 4,177
students and parents who completed the questionnaires. I am grateful also to Dr D.G. Beswick for access to preliminary reports from the Tertiary Colleges Project and to Professor W.D. Borrie for the use of some 1971 census statistics held by the National Population Inquiry.
Finally, I wish to thank Miss Jan Foote for typing the draft of the thesis, Miss Jan Livingstone for typing the final copy, and Dr Maris Buchanan for her help in checking the tables. Any errors or short-comings which
remain are my own responsibility.
V
SUMMARY OF CONTENTS
Abstract
Ac knowled gement s Contents
List of Diagrams List of Tables Definitions
Page iii iv vi xii xiv xix
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1: Aims, Methods and Sources of Data 1 PART ONE: URBANISATION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION
Chapter 2: Urbanisation in Victoria 42
Chapter 3: National Trends in Urbanisation and Internal
Migration 99
Chapter 4: Patterns of Internal Migration in Victoria 146 Chapter 5: The Contribution of Internal Migration to
Urbanisation 199
PART TWO: MIGRATION SELECTIVITY AND CAUSATION
Chapter 6: Migration Selectivity by Age, Sex and
Birthplace 224
Chapter 7: Residence Histories of Internal Migrants 291 Chapter 8: Attitudes of Potential Migrants 3253 CONCLUSION
404 Chapter 9: Summary and Epilogue
Bibliography 429
v i
CONTENTS
P a g e
A b s t r a c t m
A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s i v
Summary o f C o n t e n t s v
L i s t o f D i a g r a m s x i i
L i s t o f T a b l e s x i v
D e f i n i t i o n s x i x
INTRODUCTION
C h a p t e r 1 : Alms, M e t ho ds and S o u r c e s o f D a t a
1 . 1 The S e t t i n g 1
1 . 2 The M o b i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n 2
1 . 3 U r b a n i s a t i o n 5
1 . 4 A p p r o a c h e s t o t h e S t u d y o f M i g r a t i o n 7 1 . 5 Aims a n d S t r u c t u r e o f t h e T h e s i s 10 1 . 6 D a t a S o u r c e s i n I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n S t u d i e s i n A u s t r a l i a 11
1 . 6 . 1 The 1971 C e n s u s 12
1 . 6 . 2 E s t i m a t e s o f Net M i g r a t i o n 19 1 . 6 . 3 The I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n St irvey 26 1 . 7 N a t u r e o f t h e I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n S u r v e y 27 1 . 7 . 1 S e l e c t i o n o f t h e S u r v e y Towns 27 1 . 7 . 2 The Sample P o p u l a t i o n 29
1 . 7 . 3 D a t a C o l l e c t i o n 34
1 . 7 . 4 S u r v e y R e t u r n s and Sample S i z e 37 1 . 7 . 5 C o d i n g and E d i t i n g 39
1 . 8 C o n c l u s i o n 41
I
PART ONE: URBANISATION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION C h a p t e r 2 : U r b a n i s a t i o n i n V i c t o r i a
2 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 42
2 . 2 E v o l u t i o n o f t h e S e t t l e m e n t P a t t e r n 43 2 . 3 D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e A u s t r a l i a n U r b a n P a t t e r n 46
2 . 3 . 1 ’The Dead H e a r t ’ 46
2 . 3 . 2 ’The T y r a n n y o f D i s t a n c e ’ 48
2 . 3 . 3 ’The Normal S t a t e ’ 50
vii
Page
2.3.5 ’The Malthusian Inversion’ 52
2.3.6 ’The Affluent Society' 53
2.3.7 'The New Industrial State' 55
2.3.8 A Synthesis of Urbanisation Theory 57
2.4 Distribution of Population and Settlement 61
2.5 Size of Towns 63
2.6 Settlement Size and Population Redistribution 65
2.7 Rural Population Changes 1947-1971 68
2.7.1 General Causes of Rural Population Change 69
2.7.2 Intercensal Patterns of Change 73
2.8 Summary of Rural Population Changes 79
2.8.1 Introduction to Cluster Analysis 79
2.8.2 Interpretation of Rural Population Groupings 84
2.9 Urban Population Changes 1947-1971 86
2.9.1 General Causes of Urban Population Change 87
2.9.2 Patterns of Change 92
2.10 The Metropolitan Community 96
Chapter 3 : National Trends in Urbanisation and Internal Migration
3.1 Introduction 99
3.2 Capital City Primacy in Australia 100
3.3 Non-Metropolitan Populations 101
3.4 Migration between States 103
3.4.1 Interstate Migration 1947-1966 103
3.4.2 Migration Estimates and the de facto Census 105
3.4.3 Interstate Migration 1966-1971 107
3.5 Urban and Rural Components of Migration 112
3.5.1 Movement within States 113
3.5.2 Movement between States 118
3.5.3 Summary of Rural and Urban Trends 119
3.6 Markov Chain Models of Interstate Migration 121
3.6.1 Aims and Assumptions of the Markov Model 123
3.6.2 Markov Chain Model of Internal Migration 129
3.6.3 Markov Model with External Migration 133
3.6.4 Expanded Markov Model 135
3.7 Migration Effectiveness 140
3.8 International Comparisons 142
viii
Page Chapter 4 ; Patterns of Internal Migration in Victoria
4.1 Introduction 146
4.2 The Victorian Border as a Migration Divide 146 4.3 Internal Migration to and from Victoria 148
4.4 Rural Net Migration 1954-1971 152
4.4.1 Nature of the Statistics 152
4.4.2 Spatial Patterns 1954-1966 154
4.4.3 Spatial Patterns 1966-1971 157
4.5 Urban Net Migration 1954-1971 160
4.5.1 Spatial Patterns 1954-1966 160
4.5.2 Spatial Patterns 1966-1971 163
4.6 Comparison of Net Migration Estimates and Trends 163 4.7 Places of Residence at the Previous Census 168
4.7.1 Data and Method of Analysis 168
4.7.2 Levels of Mobility in Rural and Urban Communities 169 4.7.3 Previous Residences of Rural Populations 171 4.7.4 Previous Residences of Urban Populations 175 4.8 Movement to and from Individual Towns 179
4.8.1 Origins 179
4.8.2 Destinations 183
4.8.3 Step Migration as an Aggregate Process 184 4.9 Migration Streams in Victoria 1966-1971 187 4.9.1 Movement between Statistical Divisions 189 4.9.2 Movement within Statistical Divisions 192
4.9.3 Summary of Migrant Destinations 193
4.10 Projections of Internal Migration Trends 195
4.11 Summary 198
Chapter 5 : The Contribution of Internal Migration to Urbanisation
5.1 Introduction 199
5.2 The Concepts of Growth and Replacement 199
5.3 The Demographic Process Approach 201
5.4 The Social Group Approach 207
5.5 Overseas Trends 213
ix
Page
PART TWO; MIGRATION SELECTIVITY AND CAUSATION
Chapter 6 : Migration Selectivity by Age, Sex and Birthplace
6.1 Introduction 224
6.2 Age and Sex Differentials Described in Migration
Literature 225
6.3 Nature of the Statistics on Age and Sex Selectivity 229
6.4 General Sex Differentials in the Australian-Born
Population 235
6.5 General Age Differentials in the Australian-Born
Population 237
6.6 The Age Structures of Australian-Born Internal Migrants 240
6.6.1 Interstate Migration Streams 240
6.6.2 Migration within Victoria 248
6.7 The Age Structures of Australian-Born Non-Migrants 257
6.8 General Birthplace Differentials 261
6.9 Internal Migration Patterns of the Overseas-Born 263
6.10 Ages of Overseas-Born Internal Migrants 270
6.11 Age-Specific Net Migration 1966-1971 279
6.11.1 Net Migration in Rural Victoria 281
6.11.2 Net Migration in 'Other Urban' Victoria 284
6.12 Mobility and the Concept of Dynamic Equilibrium 287
Chapter 7 : Residence Histories of Internal Migrants
7.1 Introduction 291
7.2 Approaches to the Analysis of Residence Histories 291
7.3 Evaluation of the Survey Results 296
7.3.1 Comparisons of Respondents and Non-Respondents 296
7.3.2 Comparisons of Answers from Students and their
Parents 300
7.3.3 Age Structures of the Sample Populations 304
7.4 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Migration 305
7.4.1 Frequency of Movement 305
7.4.2 Timing of Migration 307
7.4.3 Length of Stay before Moving 310
7.4.4 Choice of Destination 312
7.5 Migration and the Life Cycle 314
7.5.1 The Concept of the Life Cycle 314
X
Page
7.6 Causes of Movement 326
7.6.1 Studies of Migration Decisions 328
7.6.2 General Causes of Movement in Victoria 331 7.6.3 Causes of Movement to and from Communities of
Different Size 335
7.7 Occupations of Internal Migrants 340
7.7.1 Occupational Mobility of Farmers and Farm Workers 340 7.7.2 Review of Occupational Differentials 341
7.7.3 Occupational Selectivity 342
7.8 Education of Internal Migrants 345
7.8.1 Review of Education Differentials 346
7.8.2 Educational Selectivity 347
7.9 Migration Selectivity as a Cumulative Probability
Process 349
7.10 A Reappraisal of Residence History Analysis 350 Chapter 8 : Attitudes of Potential Migrants
8.1 Introduction 353
8.2 Opinions of the Home Community 353
8.2.1 Advantages of the Home Community 354 8.2.2 Disadvantages of the Home Community 360 8.2.3 Summary and Comparison with Melbourne 365 8.3 Attitudes to Staying in the Home Community 367
8.4 Settlement Size Preferences 368
8.4.1 Composite Preference Patterns 369
8.4.2 Preference Patterns of Individuals 373
8.5 The Most Preferred Communities 380
8.6 Travel Patterns 381
8.7 Migration and Mental Maps 384
8.8 Spatial Preferences in Victoria 387
8.8.1 Methodology 387
8.8.2 Composite Preferences 391
8.8.3 Levels of Familiarity 395
8.8.4 Individual Preferences 398
CONCLUSION
Chapter 9 : Summary and Epilogue
9.1 Introduction 404
9.2 General Features of Migration in Victoria 404
9.3 Interstate Migration 403
9.4 Migration within Victoria 409
9.4.1 The Pattern of Movement 409
9.4.2 Motivation 410
9.4.3 Selectivity 414
9.5 Migration and Population Change 416
9.6 The Equilibrium Hypothesis 424
BIBLIOGRAPHY 429
APPENDIX
1. Student Questionnaire 446
2. Parent Questionnaire 453
3. Settlement Regions of Victoria 455
4. Australian Life Table Survival Ratios 1954-61, 1960-62
and 1965-67 460
xii
LIST OF DIAGRAMS
1.1 Statistical Divisions of Victoria 1.2 Location of Survey Towns
2.1 Rural Population Density in Victoria 1966 2.2 Population Changes in Rural Victoria 1947-1971 2.3 Local Government Areas of Victoria 1966
2.4 Cluster Analysis of Rural Population Trends 1947-1971 2.5 Cluster Analysis of Urban Population Trends 1947-1971 3.1 Net Interstate Migration in Australia 1966-1971
3.2 Net Migration between Sections of Australian States 1966-1971
4.1 Net Migration in Rural Victoria during Intercensal Periods 1954-1971
4.2 Net Migration in Urban Victoria 1961-1966 and 1966-1971 4.3 Places of Previous Residence of the Rural Population 4.4 Places of Previous Residence of the Urban Population 4.5 Origins of Families Moving to the Survey Towns
4.6 Migration Exchanges between Statistical Divisions in Victoria 1966-1971
5.1 Components of Population Growth
6.1 Age Structure of the 1971 Population of the Urban Portion of the Melbourne Statistical Division who did not Specify their Places of Residence in 1966
6.2 Migration Probabilities for the Australian-Born Population of Victoria 1966-1971
6.3 Age Structures of Intermetropolitan Migration Streams to and from Melbourne 1966-1971
6.4 Age Structures of Migration Streams between Melbourne and Non-Metropolitan Areas in Other States 1966-1971 6.5 Age Structures of Interstate Migration Streams from
Non-Metropolitan Victoria 1966-1971
6.6 Age Structures of Intrastate Migration Streams to, from and within Melbourne 1966-1971
6.7 Age Structures of Persons Moving within Non-Metropolitan Victoria 1966-1971
6.8 Age Structures of the Victorian Populations who did not Move 1966-1971
6.9 Age Structures of Overseas-Born Populations
xiii
Page 6.10 Mean Patterns of Age-Specific Net Migration in
Non-Metropolitan Victoria 1966-1971 278
6.11 Age-Specific Net Migration in Rural Victoria 1966-1971 280 6.12 Dendrogram of Rural Net Migration Groups 281 6.13 Age-Specific Net Migration in 'Other Urban' Victoria
1966-1971 285
7.1 Example of a Tree Diagram for Representing Cumulative
Probabilities of Moving 350
8.1 Main Preference Patterns for Settlements of Different
Size 375
8.2 Reference Map Supplied to Students for Answering the
Question on Spatial Preferences in Victoria 389 8.3 Spatial Preferences of Students in Samples from Six
Victorian Towns 393
8.4 Places Least Familiar to Students in Samples from
xiv
LIST OF TABLES
Page
1.1 Population of survey towns 30
1.2 Retention of students at high schools in Victoria 31 1.3 Number of fourth form students in survey schools at
February and August 1973 32
1.4 Sex of parent respondents in pilot survey 36
1.5 Survey returns and sample sizes 38
2.1 Industrial composition of the Australian workforce
1901-1971 59
2.2 Sizes of Victorian urban centres 1947-1971 64 2.3 Percentage Victorian population urban and rural
1947-1971 67
2.4 Enumerations of the ’rural’ population of Victoria
1947-1971 67
2.5 Means and standard deviations of rural population
change groups 82
2.6 Victorian rural areas - membership of HGROUP and
CLUSTAN groups 83
2.7 Means and standard deviations of urban population
change groups 94
3.1 Population of capital cities 1971 100
3.2 Net movement of usual residents of states, 30th June
1971 106
3.3 Number of persons moving between Australian states
and territories 1966-1971 108
3.4 Net interstate migration 1966-1971 109
3.5 Number of persons moving between sections of states
1966-1971 114
3.6 Summary of rural and urban trends 120
3.7 Probabilities of moving between states 1966-1971 129 3.8 Projected effects of internal migration on relative
population distribution between states 130 3.9 Mean and variance of first passage times for interstate
migration 131
3.10 Projected effects of internal and external migration
on relative population distribution between states 134 3.11 Projected percentage growth of states by internal and
external migration 1971-2001 135
3.12 Probability of moving between sections of states
X V
Pa ge
3 . 1 3 P r o j e c t e d e f f e c t s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n on r e l a t i v e
p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n b e t w e e n s e c t i o n s o f s t a t e s 138 3 . 1 4 Mean f i r s t p a s s a g e t i m e s f o r movement b e t w e e n
s e c t i o n s o f s t a t e s 139
3 . 1 5 M i g r a t i o n e f f e c t i v e n e s s r a t i o s f o r A u s t r a l i a n s t a t e s
1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 141
3 . 1 6 L e v e l s o f p o p u l a t i o n m o b i l i t y i n A u s t r a l i a , U n i t e d
S t a t e s , C an a da and B r i t a i n 143 4 . 1 G r o s s i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 i n s t a t i s t i c a l
d i v i s i o n s n e a r t h e V i c t o r i a n b o r d e r 147 4 . 2 I n t e r s t a t e m i g r a t i o n t o and f rom V i c t o r i a n s t a t i s t i c a l
d i v i s i o n s 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 149
4 . 3 Ne t m i g r a t i o n t o o t h e r s t a t e s f ro m V i c t o r i a n s t a t i s t i c a l
d i v i s i o n s 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 150
4 . 4 F r e q u e n c i e s o f a n n u a l n e t m i g r a t i o n r a t i o s f o r t o t a l
p o p u l a t i o n s o f r u r a l a r e a s 1 9 54 -1 97 1 158 4 . 5 F r e q u e n c i e s o f a n n u a l n e t m i g r a t i o n r a t i o n f o r t o t a l
p o p u l a t i o n s o f u r b a n c e n t r e s 1 95 4 - 1 9 7 1 164 4 . 6 Net m i g r a t i o n t o t h e M e l b o u r n e s t a t i s t i c a l d i v i s i o n
an d t h e r e s t o f V i c t o r i a 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 166 4 . 7 Net m i g r a t i o n t o t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n , ' o t h e r u r b a n ' and
r u r a l s e c t i o n s o f V i c t o r i a 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 166 4 . 8 V a r i a b i l i t y o f p e r c e n t a g e s i n p l a c e s o f r e s i d e n c e a t
p r e v i o u s c e n s u s 170
4 . 9 P l a c e s o f r e s i d e n c e i n 1966 o f 1971 p o p u l a t i o n o f
M e l b o u r n e 170
4 . 1 0 R u r a l a r e a s : mea ns and s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s f o r p r e v i o u s
p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e g r o u p s 173 4 . 1 1 Ur b an c e n t r e s : means a n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s f o r
p r e v i o u s p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e g r o u p s 177 4 . 1 2 O r i g i n s o f h o u s e h o l d s moving t o V i c t o r i a n t o wn s 181 4 . 1 3 D e s t i n a t i o n s o f s t u d e n t s ' e l d e r b r o t h e r s and s i s t e r s
l e a v i n g home 183
4 . 1 4 P r o b a b i l i t i e s o f b e i n g i n s e c t i o n s o f V i c t o r i a a t
1966 and 1971 185
4 . 1 5 P r o b a b i l i t i e s o f moving b e t w e e n s e t t l e m e n t s o f d i f f e r e n t
s i z e 186
4 . 1 6 I n t r a s t a t e and t o t a l i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n t o and f r om
V i c t o r i a n s t a t i s t i c a l d i v i s i o n s 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 188 4 . 1 7 R a t i o s o f m i g r a t i o n f r om V i c t o r i a n s t a t i s t i c a l d i v i s i o n s
t o M e l b o u r n e 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 189 4 . 1 8 U r b a n - r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n movement b e t w e e n V i c t o r i a n
xv i
Page
4.19 Urban-rural population movement within Victorian
statistical divisions 1966-1971 193
4.20 Destin ations of people moving from rural areas in
Victoria 1966-1971 194
4.21 Destin ations of people moving from urban centres in
Victoria 1966-1971 ' 195
4.22 Projected effects of internal migration on relative
population distribution in Victoria 197
5.1 Natural increase and net migration in Victorian
statistical divisions 1966-1971 202
5.2 Natural increase and net migration in selected
Victorian urban centres 1966-1971 203
5.3 Some statistics relating to the estimation of
components of population change 1966-1971 206
5.4 Components of de jure population change in Victorian
statistical divisions 1966-1971 207
5.5 External migration to and from Victorian statistical
divisions 1966-1971 208
5.6 Components of the growth of the Australian-born and
overseas-born de jure populations of Melbourne and
Victoria 1966-1971 210
5.7 Net migration of the Australian-born population of the
Melbourne statistical division 1966-1971 212
6.1 Processes of change in the demographic structure of
Victorian statistical divisions 1966-1971 224
6.2 Age structure of the total mobile Australian-born
population of Victoria 1971 230
6.3 Example of chi square test of significance of age
structure variations 233
6.4 Sex ratios of mobile and non-mobile Australian-born
populations 1966-1971 at place of origin 236
6.5 Migration probabilities by age and sex 1966-1971 of
Australian-born population of Victoria 239
6.6 The age structure and sex ratios of Australian-born
persons moving to Melbourne from other capital cities
1966-1971 243
6.7 Age structures of intrastate migration streams to and
from Melbourne 252
6.8 Probabilities of moving to different destinations by
age and sex for mobile Australian-born population in
Melbourne statistical division at 1966 census 254
6.9 Components of the difference between the proportions
non-mobile in Melbourne and the rest of Victoria
xvii
Page 6.10 Levels of mobility in the Australian-born and
overseas-born populations 1966-1971 262
6.11 Population indices for birthplace groups in non
metropolitan Victoria 1961-1966 264
6.12 Origins and destinations of 1971 overseas-born
population of Victoria 268
6.13 Probabilities of moving or staying for the
overseas-born population of Victoria 1966-1971 269 6.14 Projected effects of internal migration on the relative
distribution of the overseas-born population 269 6.15 Age structure of the total mobile overseas-born
population of Victoria 1971 271
6.16 Migration probabilities by age and sex of
overseas-born population of Victoria 1971 272
6.17 Volume of principal interstate migration streams of the
overseas-born moving to and from Melbourne 1966-1971 273 6.18 Age structures of overseas-born Intrastate migrants in
Victoria 1966-1971 277
7.1 Response rates to parent survey by nature of family 296 7.2 Response rates to parent survey by number of internal
migrations 1958-1973 297
7.3 Response rates to parent survey by sex of students 298 7.4 Response rates to parent survey by prospective
occupation of students 299
7.5 Comparison of students’ and parents’ description of the
occupation of the male head of the household 301 7.6 Comparison of number of moves specified by students and
parents 1958-1973 303
7.7 Age structure of families in the Ballarat sample 304 7.8 Number of life-time internal migrations by parents 305 7.9 Range and mean number of life-time internal migrations
by parents 307
7.10 Ages at moving by present age of Australian-born
respondents 308
7.11 Ages at moving by duration of last stay 311 7.12 Present and past places of residence of sample
populations 313
7.13 Ages at leaving home 319
7.14 Reasons for leaving home 320
7.15 Occupations of stayers, local migrants and internal
migrants 323
7.16 Education of stayers, local migrants and internal
xviii
Page 7.17 Reasons for interstate migration of members of the
labour force 1971-1972 326
7.18 Reasons for intrastate migration of members of the
labour force 1971-1972 327
7.19 Reasons for all life-time internal migrations by
parent respondents 333
7.20 Proportions of parent respondents who had ever lived on
a farm 334
7.21 Reasons for migration of parent respondents to and from
Melbourne and large non-metropolitan towns 336 7.22 Reasons for migration of parent respondents to and from
small towns and farms 338
7.23 Number of moves during previous fifteen years by
present occupation 344
7.24 Number of moves during previous fifteen years by
education of father 348
8.1 Advantages of the home community specified by students 356 8.2 Advantages of the home community specified by parents 358 8.3 Disadvantages of the home community specified by students 361 8.4 Disadvantages of the home community specified by parents 364 8.5 Attitudes to staying in the home community 369 8.6 Ranking of settlement size categories by non-farm
students 370
8.7 Ranking of settlement size categories by farm students 372 8.8 Frequencies of preference patterns for settlements of
different size 374
xix
DEFINITIONS
(1) Internal migration is defined as a permanent movement from one urban or rural community to another. Permanent movement involves a stay of one or more years duration.
(2) Local mobility is movement within an urban or rural community.
(3) Urbanisation is defined as the rising concentration of population in urban centres and the proliferation of towns.
(4) The 1966 and 1971 census definitions of 'urban* and 'rural' are followed in this thesis because of the use of census statistics as source
materials.
Urban centres are defined as population clusters of 1,000 or more persons having a minimum density of 500 per square mile, as well as areas of lower population and/or density classified on other grounds, such as holiday areas or industrial areas.
Rural communities are the non-urban portions of shires.
(5) Melbourne Metropolitan Area is used synonymously in this thesis with Melbourne urban centre to denote the built up area.
CHAPTER 1
AIMS, METHODS AND SOURCES OF DATA
1.1 The Setting
Between 1966 and 1971, about 44 percent of the population of Australia changed their place of residence, indicating a high level of mobility
characteristic of other industrialised societies such as Canada and the United States.^ Like the national population, the population of Victoria was also very mobile, 42 percent having moved within the State or from
2
other parts of Australia during the intercensal period. This movement
consisted of local mobility, that is moves within a community such as a town or rural shire, and internal migration, which is defined as a
3
permanent movement from one urban or rural community to another. Apart
from a few studies of migration to selected country towns, or of
intercensal net migration, the recent patterns and causes of internal migration in Victoria have remained largely unresearched, and the popular belief that the capital city of Melbourne is the focus of uncompensated migration from
4
the countryside lias persisted without question. Yet a brief look at
statistics from the 1971 census shows that internal migration in Victoria, far from being a unidirectional movement to the capital city, is a complex pattern of interchange involving the movement of substantial numbers of
people to and from Melbourne, as well as between country areas and neighbouring towns.
This study is mainly concerned with the patterns and causes of internal migration in Victoria, and arises from the view that internal migration is
significant both as a component of population growth or decline and as an
indicator of social and economic conditions. Most attention is given to
1
See Section 3.8.
2
1971 Census, unpublished statistics. 3
Bogue, Donald J., 'Internal Migration', in Hauser, P.M. and Duncan, O.D.,
(eds.), The Study of Population, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1959, p.489.
4
2
t h e p e r i o d 1966 t o 1973 a s d e t a i l e d d a t a on p o p u l a t i o n movements a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r t h i s p e r i o d , t h o u g h some i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e
i n t e r v a l 1 9 4 7 - 6 6 i s p r e s e n t e d t o p r o v i d e a l o n g e r t e m p o r a l p e r s p e c t i v e .
The s t u d y a r e a , t h e S t a t e o f V i c t o r i a , i s a p o l i t i c a l u n i t whose b o u n d a r i e s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e i d e a l b o u n d a r i e s w i t h i n w h i c h t o
a n a l y s e i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n . At t h e s t a r t o f t h i s r e s e a r c h , i n 1 9 7 2 , d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n was n o t a v a i l a b l e t o p e r m i t t h e d e l i m i t a t i o n o f a s t u d y a r e a d e f i n e d i n t e r m s o f m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s e s r a t h e r t h a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e
a f f i l i a t i o n s . F or c o n v e n i e n c e , t h e p o l i t i c a l u n i t was a d o p t e d a s t h e s t u d y a r e a , a n d t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u b s e q u e n t l y d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e S t a t e b o r d e r d o e s i n f a c t h a v e some i m p o r t a n c e a s a ' w a t e r s h e d ' o r d i v i d e f o r i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n . ^
The f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s c h a p t e r o u t l i n e s t h e t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s o f t h e t h e s i s t o show t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e r e s e a r c h a i m s w h i c h a r e p r e s e n t e d i n s e c t i o n 1 . 5 . L a t e r s e c t i o n s i n t h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e t h e n a t u r e and q u a l i t y o f t h e d a t a s o u r c e s u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n .
1 • 2 The M o b i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n
S p a t i a l and t e m p o r a l v a r i a t i o n s i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y h a v e b e e n g i v e n a g e n e r a l i n t e g r a t e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n by t h e c o n c e p t o f d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n . A l t h o u g h e a r l y s t a t e m e n t s h a v e b e e n f o u n d t o n e e d m o d i f i c a t i o n , t h e t h e o r y o f d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n h a s s e r v e d a v a l u a b l e r o l e a s a
c o m p a r a t i v e b a s i s f o r r e s e a r c h on c h a n g e s i n b i r t h and d e a t h r a t e s . U n l i k e f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y , t h e t h i r d m a j o r p r o c e s s o f p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e ,
m i g r a t i o n , h a s l a c k e d a f r a m e o f r e f e r e n c e t o s u g g e s t p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n m i g r a t i o n t r e n d s i n d i f f e r e n t p l a c e s and a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s .
C o n c e p t u a l and t h e o r e t i c a l a p p r o a c h e s s u c h a s t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l , ^
See s e c t i o n 4 . 2 .
C o a l e , A . J . , ' The D em o g r a p h i c T r a n s i t i o n R e c o n s i d e r e d ' , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o p u l a t i o n C o n f e r e n c e , L i e g e , 1 , I . U . S . S . P . , 1 9 7 3 , p p . 5 3 - 7 1 .
C a l d w e l l , J . C . , The P o p u l a t i o n o f M a l a y a , P h . D . T h e s i s A u s t r a l i a n N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y , C a n b e r r a , 1 9 6 2 , p . 2 3 f f .
3
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f m i g r a t i o n , and M a b o g u n j e ' s s y s t e m s t h e o r y a r e a l l r emove d f r o m a s e q u e n t i a l s e t t i n g i n t i m e and s p a c e . R e c e n t l y , h o w e v e r , Z e l i n s k y p u t f o r w a r d t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e ' m o b i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n ' , w h i c h f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e g i v e s a g e n e r a l v i e w o f m i g r a t i o n a s a s e q u e n t i a l p r o c e s s . J u s t a s t h e n o t i o n o f t h e d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n h a s
f a c i l i t a t e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p a r i s o n s o f m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y t r e n d s , t h e m o b i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n h y p o t h e s i s may p r o v i d e a s i m i l a r c o m p a r a t i v e b a s i s f o r m i g r a t i o n s t u d i e s .
Z e l i n s k y p r o p o s e d a f i v e s t a g e m o b i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n b a s e d on t h e
h y p o t h e s i s t h a t : ' T h e r e a r e d e f i n i t e , p a t t e r n e d r e g u l a r i t i e s i n t h e g r o w t h o f p e r s o n a l m o b i l i t y t h r o u g h s p a c e - t i m e d u r i n g r e c e n t h i s t o r y , and t h e s e r e g u l a r i t i e s c o m p r i s e a n e s s e n t i a l c o mp o ne n t o f t h e m o d e r n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s . ' ^ S u c c e s s i v e s t a g e s o f t h e m o b i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n had d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f
i n t e r n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n , a s w e l l a s ' p o p u l a t i o n c i r c u l a t i o n ' - t e m p o r a r y moves i n v o l v i n g no c h a n g e i n u s u a l p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e . The f i v e
C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n h a v e b e e n b a s e d m a i n l y on t h e n a t u r e o f p l a c e s o f o r i g i n a n d d e s t i n a t i o n , w r i t e r s m e r e l y d i s t i n g u i s h i n g s u c h t y p e s o f moves a s r u r a l - u r b a n and r u r a l - r u r a l m i g r a t i o n . A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s e and o t h e r m i g r a t i o n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s i s g i v e n by K a n t , Ed ga r
' C l a s s i f i c a t i o n and P r o b l e m s o f M i g r a t i o n s ' , i n Wagner, P . L . and M i k e s e l l , M.W., ( e d s . ) , R e a d i n g s i n C u l t u r a l G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 3 4 2 - 5 4 . One o f t h e f ew c a u s a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n s
i s g i v e n by Das Gu pt a who m e n t i o n e d v o l u n t a r y , o b l i g a t o r y and s e q u e n t i a l ( p a s s i v e ) m o v em e n t s . Das G u p t a , Aj i t , ' T y p e s and M e a s u r e s o f I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n ' , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o p u l a t i o n C o n f e r e n c e , V i e n n a , I . U . S . S . P . , 1 9 5 9 , p . 6 1 9 . A more r e c e n t e x p l a n a t o r y a p p r o a c h i s t h a t o f Roseman, who
d i s t i n g u i s h e d ' p a r t i a l ' and ' t o t a l d i s p l a c e m e n t ' m i g r a t i o n s ; and i n e f f e c t i d e n t i f i e d t h e m a i n d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n l o c a l m o b i l i t y and i n t e r n a l
m i g r a t i o n .
Roseman, C u r t i s C . , ' M i g r a t i o n a s a S p a t i a l and T e m p o r a l P r o c e s s ' , A n n a l s o f t h e A s s o c i a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n G e o g r a p h e r s , 1 9 7 1 , 6 1, p p . 5 8 9 - 9 8 .
9
M a b o g u n j e , A k i n L . , ' S y s t e m s A p p r o a c h t o a T h e o r y o f R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n ' , G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s , 1 9 7 0 , 2 , p p . 1 - 1 8 .
^ Z e l i n s k y , W i l b u r , ' Th e H y p o t h e s i s o f t h e M o b i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n ' , G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w , 1 9 7 1 , 6 1 , p p . 2 1 9 - 4 9 .
4
stages more or less paralleled stages of the demographic transition and were characterised as follows:
Phase 1: Premodern Traditional Society
High fertility and mortality, low natural increase and little residential movement.
Phase 2: Early Transitional Society
A major decline in mortality occurs accompanied by rapid population increase and massive rural- urban migration. At the same time, rural
frontiers are extended if land is available for pioneering migration, and emigration may
become significant.
Phase 3: Late Transitional Society
Substantial fertility decline reduces natural increase. Rural-urban migration slackens, as do colonizing movements and emigration, while population circulation increases.
Phase 4: Advanced Society
Low mortality and fertility. Rural-urban migration continues, though at a lower level than previously, while vigorous movement within and between cities is characteristic. Any settlement frontier is now stagnant or retreating. There may be significant net immigration from relatively underdeveloped countries and circulation accelerates, especially in the form of business trips and tourism.
Phase 5: Future Superadvanced Society
The mobility characteristics of this phase were speculative but it was envisaged that most residential migration would occur within or
between cities, and that there might be immigration of unskilled labour from less developed areas.
Also, it was thought that strict political control of internal and international migration might be imposed.
Like the demographic transition, the mobility transition was considered to be a highly idealised pattern, unsuited for descriptive or predictive purposes at a small scale or over a short time period. Rather it was
intended to provide a general overview of migration as a sequential process in time and space. The hypothesis of the mobility transition is significant because it integrates diverse spatial and temporal patterns and gives a
5
m o d e r n i s a t i o n . Yet Z e l i n s k y ' s d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s was wh a t he c a l l e d a ' r e c o n n a i s s a n c e v o y a g e ' , w h i c h r a i s e d many q u e s t i o n s b u t l e f t
t h e f i e l d o p e n t o more i n t e n s i v e i n v e s t i g a t i o n . One q u e s t i o n w h i c h may b e p o s e d i s how v a l i d a r e t h e i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a s c r i b e d t o t h e a d v a n c e d s o c i e t y ? A u s t r a l i a i s a n a d v a n c e d s o c i e t y i n t e r m s o f
12
i t s f e r t i l i t y an d m o r t a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , b u t i t s i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n 13
p r o c e s s e s h a v e o n l y j u s t b e g u n t o b e d o c u m e n t e d . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h i s
s t u d y w i l l e x a m i n e t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t V i c t o r i a h a s t h e i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a n a d v a n c e d s o c i e t y .
1 . 3 U r b a n i s a t i o n
As w e l l a s b e i n g a p o s s i b l e i n d i c a t o r o f t h e l e v e l o f m o d e r n i s a t i o n a t t a i n e d by a s o c i e t y , i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i s one o f t h e m e c h a n i s m s o f m o d e r n i s a t i o n . The m a i n r o l e w h i c h I n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n f u l f i l s h e r e i s t o
f o s t e r u r b a n i s a t i o n , w h i c h i s d e f i n e d a s t h e r i s i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f 14
p o p u l a t i o n i n u r b a n c e n t r e s and t h e p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f t o w n s . Much r e s e a r c h on u r b a n i s a t i o n h a s g i v e n e m p h a s i s t o i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n , a s e x e m p l i f i e d b y r e c e n t s t u d i e s s p o n s o r e d by t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l G e o g r a p h i c a l U n i o n ‘d an d
t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l U n i o n f o r t h e S c i e n t i f i c S t u d y o f P o p u l a t i o n . " ^
I n 1 96 8 , t h e A u s t r a l i a n p o p u l a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g A b o r i g i n e s , ha d a c r u d e b i r t h r a t e o f 2 0 . 0 and a c r u d e d e a t h r a t e o f 9 . 1 . See A p p l e y a r d , R . T . ,
' T h e P o p u l a t i o n ' , i n D a v i e s , A . F . and E n c e l , S. ( e d s . ) , A u s t r a l i a n S o c i e t y : A S o c i o l o g i c a l I n t r o d u c t i o n , Second E d i t i o n , C h e s h i r e , M e l b o u r n e , 1 9 7 0 ,
p . 119 . 13
The l i t e r a t u r e on i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i n A u s t r a l i a i s d i s c u s s e d by Hugo, Graeme J . , I n t e r n a l Mi g r a t i o n i n S o u t h Au s t r a l i a 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 6 , M.A. T h e s i s , F l i n d e r s U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h A u s t r a l i a , A d e l a i d e , 1 9 7 1 , p p . 8 - 1 2 .
S t o n e , L . O . , U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t i n C a n a d a , Do mi n io n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , O t t a w a , 1 9 6 7 , p . A . S t o n e ' s d e f i n i t i o n d i f f e r s s l i g h t l y f r o m E l d r i d g e ' s b e t t e r known d e m o g r a p h i c d e f i n i t i o n . E l d r i d g e w r i t e s : ' U r b a n i z a t i o n i s a p r o c e s s o f p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n . I t p r o c e e d s i n two w a y s : t h e m u l t i p l i c a t i o n o f p o i n t s o f c o n c e n t r a t i o n a nd t h e i n c r e a s e i n s i z e o f
i n d i v i d u a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s . ' E l d r i d g e , Hope T i s d a l e , ' T h e P r o c e s s o f U r b a n i z a t i o n ' , i n S p e n g l e r , J o s e p h J . a n d D un c a n , O t i s D u d l e y ( e d s . ) , D e m o g r a p h i c A n a l y s i s , S e l e c t e d R e a d i n g s , t h e F r e e P r e s s , G l e n c o e , 1 9 5 6 , p .338 .
15
K o s i n s k i , L . A . and P r o t h e r o , R.M. ( e d s . ) , P e o p l e on t h e Move, M e t h u e n , L on d o n , 1 9 7 5 .
6
Some studies of urbanisation have virtually equated net migration to cities with net internal migration.^ While this assumption may be valid in some contexts, it is unsatisfactory in Australia because of the great contribution that international migration has made to population growth. For example, Borrie et a l . estimated that 59 percent of Australia's
18 population growth 1947-71 was contributed by immigrants and their children. However, since much of the impact of international migration is absorbed
19
by capital cities, such as Melbourne, internal migration might be expected to be a more important component of urban population change in non
metropolitan areas. This assumption about the role of internal migration in urban population change is investigated in the thesis. An assessment of the contribution of internal migration to urbanisation in Australia may help to elucidate the process of modernisation, by showing how the settlement pattern is evolving and what its character will be if present trends continue in the near future.
Questions concerning the role of internal migration in urbanisation are not only of academic interest relating to the development processes in society, but also of practical interest arising from a desire by state and federal
governments to plan the future distribution of population. Population distribution is one of three themes which, since the nineteenth century, have been predominant in public debate and policy formulation concerning
the population of Australia. The other two themes are population size and racial composition, both of which have received active attention through immigration schemes and the so-called 'White Australia' policy. Population distribution, however, while being continually debated, has been the subject
For example, see McCaskill, Murray, 'Population Changes by Migration, 1956-1961, New Zealand Geographer, 1964, 20, pp.74-87, and Choi, C.Y. and Burnley, I.H., 'Population Components in the Growth of Cities', in Burnley, I.H. (ed.), Urbanization in Australia, Cambridge University Press, London, 1974, pp.51-61.
18
Borrie, W.D., Ruzicka, L.R. and Jain, S.K., The Recent and Potential Demographic Dynamics of Australia, paper presented to the Joint Urbanisation Seminar, Australian National University, 1973, (amended version), p.4. The estimate was based on Price, Charles A., Australian Immigration: A review
of the demographic effects of post-war immigration on the Australian population, National Population Inquiry, Commissioned Paper No.6, Canberra, 1973, Appendix Table D.
19
Burnley, Ian H., 'Immigration and Metropolitan Population Growth and Change in Australia, 1947-1966', in Johnston, R.J. and Soons, Jane M., Proceedings of the Sixth New Zealand Geography Conference, 1, New Zealand Geographical
7
of relatively minor legislation, particularly because of economic competition between states and the lack of a firm conviction that a national policy on
20
population distribution is feasible or necessary. In the 1970s,the question of population concentration in the capital cities of Australia became a
major federal election issue for the first time, and work began at the national level to formulate a policy on population distribution, replacing the long-standing laissez-faire attitude.
One prerequisite for an informed policy on population distribution is a better understanding of the demographic process of urbanisation -
natural increase and net migration - of which the latter is the most variable and least understood. The popular belief that cities such as Melbourne are gaining substantial numbers of people through net movement from country areas is not borne out by internal migration statistics, while contemporary demographic processes affecting towns and rural communities are far more complex and more diverse than the notion of a rural exodus might lead people
to believe. Research on the components of population change in urban and rural communities, as well as on the patterns and causes of population redistribution, would enable some of the main causes and consequences of urbanisation to be assessed, and should help to provide a firmer basis for any government intervention in the moulding of the settlement pattern.
1.4 Approaches to the Study of Migration
Much of the theory relating to internal migration consists of sets of
21 22 23
observed regularities summarised by Ravenstein, Thomas, Lee and 24
Bogue, together with mathematical expressions of some of these regularities
Governments have, nevertheless, influenced population distributions, as described in sections 2.7.1 and 2.9.1, but not sufficiently to reduce levels of population concentration in the metropolitan areas.
21
Ravenstein, E.G., 'The Laws of Migration', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1885, 48, p p .198-99.
22
Thomas, Dorothy S., Research Memorandum on Migration Differentials, Bulletin 43, Social Science Research Council, New York, 1938.
Lee, Everett S., 'A Theory of Migration', Demography, 1966, 3, pp.47-57. 24
8
p r o p o s e d , f o r e x a m p l e , b y S t o u f f e r an d Z l p f . I s a r d n o t e d t h a t r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a d v a n c e lias b e e n made t h i s c e n t u r y i n p r o p o u n d i n g g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s
27
o f p o p u l a t i o n m ov eme nt , b u t t h e l i t e r a t u r e h a s s u g g e s t e d some a v e n u e s f o r r e s e a r c h w h i c h may o f f e r t h e way t o i m p r o v e d e x p l a n a t i o n s and p r e d i c t i o n s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n .
One v a l u a b l e o r i e n t a t i o n i s t h e s o - c a l l e d ' b e h a v i o u r a l ’ a p p r o a c h , w h i c h 2 h a s b e e n e m p h a s i s e d i n t h e g e o g r a p h i c a l l i t e r a t u r e on i n t r a - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . The b e h a v i o u r a l a p p r o a c h s t r e s s e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f c o l l e c t i n g an d a n a l y s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t i n d i v i d u a l s r a t h e r t h a n p o p u l a t i o n a g g r e g a t e s , an d g i v i n g a t t e n t i o n n o t o n l y t o t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and a t t i t u d e s o f m i g r a n t s b u t a l s o t h o s e o f n o n - m i g r a n t s . I n a d d i t i o n , i t s e e k s e x p l a n a t i o n s o f movement
d i r e c t l y f ro m i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s r a t h e r t h a n i n d i r e c t l y f r o m c e n s u s s t a t i s t i c s o r m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s .
The b e h a v i o u r a l a p p r o a c h r e l a t e s d e c i s i o n s a b o u t t h e t i m i n g o f movement and t h e c h o i c e o f a d e s t i n a t i o n t o c h a n g i n g e v a l u a t i o n s o f ' p l a c e u t i l i t y ' , w h i c h Simmons d e f i n e d a s ' t h e m e a s u r e o f a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o r u n a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a n a r e a , r e l a t i v e t o a l t e r n a t i v e l o c a t i o n s , a s p e r c e i v e d b y t h e
29
i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r . . . . ' . M i g r a t i o n , h o w e v e r , i s o n l y one way o f a d a p t i n g t o c h a n g e s i n p l a c e u t i l i t y , a s p e o p l e may d e c i d e t o t o l e r a t e l o w e r l e v e l s o f s a t i s f a c t i o n , o r a t t e m p t t o m o d i f y c o n d i t i o n s , i n s t e a d o f m ov i ng
30
a w a y. F or t h i s r e a s o n m i g r a t i o n r e s e a r c h n e e d s t o c o n s i d e r b o t h m o v e r s and s t a y e r s . C h a n g i n g a s s e s s m e n t s o f p l a c e u t i l i t y h a v e b e e n f o u n d t o b e
31
r e l a t e d t o l i f e c y c l e s t a g e , a s w e l l a s s o c i o - e c o n o m i c a t t r i b u t e s , an d i n t h i s s t u d y some a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o e v a l u a t i n g , f r o m i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t
S t o u f f e r , Samuel A . , ' I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s : A T h e o r y R e l a t i n g M o b i l i t y an d D i s t a n c e ' , A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , 19 4 0 , 5 , p p . 8 4 5 - 6 7 .
26
Z i p f , G e o r g e K . , ' T h e P P „ / D H y p o t h e s i s : On t h e I n t e r c i t y Movement o f P e r s o n s ' , A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , 1 9 4 6 , 1 1 , p p . 6 7 7 - 8 6 .
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I s a r d , W a l t e r , M e t h o d s o f R e g i o n a l A n a l y s i s : An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , J o h n W i l e y , New Y o r k , 1 9 6 0 , p . 6 7 .
28
Fo r e x a m p l e , s e e Brown, L a w r e n c e A. an d M o o r e , E r i c G . , ' T h e I n t r a - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n P r o c e s s : a P e r s p e c t i v e ' , G e o g r a f i s k a A n n a l e r , 1 9 7 0 , 52B, p . 2 . 29
Simmons, J . W . , ' C h a n g i n g R e s i d e n c e i n t h e C i t y : A R e v i e w o f I n t r a - U r b a n M o b i l i t y ' , G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w , 1 9 6 8 , 5 8 , p . 6 3 5 .
31
Brown and Mo or e, ' T h e I n t r a - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n P r o c e s s ' , p . 2 .
9
Individual movers and stayers, the usefulness of the life cycle concept an a predictor of internal migration.
On the question of the choice of a destination, the behavioural approach hypothesises that people move according to their knowledge of and attitudes towards other places, as well as according to their ability to make use of
32
the information available to them. To obtain an impression of individuals' knowledge of different areas and their attitudes towards them, this study analyses information on travel patterns and spatial preferences and compares
the findings with residence history data on origins and destinations of internal migrants.
Migration surveys are an important means of pursuing research on decision making processes, for they not only provide information about families or
individuals, but also can supply data about perceptions and attitudes which are not obtainable from the census. Although surveys are of central
importance to behavioural work, their value has long been recognised in migration research generally; they provide data where none are available from other sources and they supplement existing sources, especially by permitting new insights to be gained from experimental questions and by enabling the subject to be explored in greater depth.
Thus, besides providing information about migration decisions, surveys can also make a significant contribution to cohort analysis in migration
33 34
research. Writers such as Eldridge and Taeuber have advocated wider use of the cohort approach in collecting and analysing migration data. Most
studies of internal migration have been based on census statistics or other materials which provide information on a cross-section of a population at a specific date. Analysis of cross-sectional or transverse material is valuable for showing the effect on a total population of an event such as a war or an economic recession. However, it has been suggested that such
information needs to be supplemented by survey data on the life histories of birth cohorts, because migration is a time-dependent process, related not only to the stages of an individual's life but also to the sequence of
o 9
This hypothesis is derived from Pred's notion of 'the behavioral matrix'. See Pred, A., Behaviour and Location: Foundations for a Geographic and Dynamic Location Theory, Lund Studies in Geography, Series B, Human Geography, No.28, Royal University of Lund, Lund, 1967, pp.21-64.
33
Eldridge, Hope T., 'A Cohort Approach to the Analysis of Migration Differentials', Demography, 1964, 1, pp.212-19.
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10
e v e n t s a f f e c t i n g s o c i e t y a s a w h o l e , s u c h a s e c o n o mi c f l u c t u a t i o n s . I n A u s t r a l i a , c e n s u s s t a t i s t i c s on i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n p r o v i d e o n l y o n e c r o s s -
s e c t i o n , a t 1 9 7 1 , o f t h i s v a r i e d and o f t e n c o m p l e x t e m p o r a l s e q u e n c e and g i v e no i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t a n t e c e d e n t p r o c e s s e s wh i c h may h a v e a f f e c t e d r e c e n t p a t t e r n s and r a t e s o f movement. A c c o r d i n g l y , a m i g r a t i o n s u r v e y h a s b e e n u s e d i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n t o s u p p l e m e n t c e n s u s d a t a b y s u p p l y i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on r e s i d e n c e h i s t o r i e s , s p a t i a l p r e f e r e n c e s , and d e c l a r e d r e a s o n s f o r m o v i n g .
1 . 5 Aims and S t r u c t u r e o f t h e T h e s i s
From t h e p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n f o u r s e t s o f q u e s t i o n s a r i s e , t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f w h i c h c o m p r i s e t h e p r i n c i p a l a i m s o f t h e t h e s i s . The q u e s t i o n s a r e s e t o u t u n d e r t h e h e a d i n g s b e l o w .
( 1 ) THE PATTERN OF INTERNAL MIGRATION
What i s t h e v ol ume and s p a t i a l p a t t e r n i n g o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i n V i c t o r i a ? A r e i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s e s
i n V i c t o r i a t h o s e o f a s o c i e t y i n p h a s e 4 o f Z e l i n s k y ' s m o b i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n ?
(2) THE CONTRIBUTION OF INTERNAL MIGRATION TO URBANISATION How i m p o r t a n t i s i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n a s a p r o c e s s o f u r b a n i s a t i o n i n V i c t o r i a ? I s i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n t h e m a i n c a u s e o f p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e i n n o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n u r b a n c e n t r e s ?
( 3) MIGRATION SELECTIVITY
What a r e t h e d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a n t s ? How u s e f u l i s t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e l i f e c y c l e i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e t i m i n g o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n ?
( 4 ) CAUSES OF INTERNAL MIGRATION
What a r e t h e m a i n c a u s e s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i n V i c t o r i a ? Does t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t b o t h m o v e r s and s t a y e r s c o n t r i b u t e mo re t o o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f c a u s a t i o n t h a n t h e a n a l y s i s o f d a t a on m i g r a n t s o n l y ? Are a n y i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e p a t t e r n o f m i g r a t i o n t o be g a i n e d f rom s t u d y i n g t h e s p a t i a l p r e f e r e n c e s o f p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t s ?
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11
The thesis is divided into two parts. Part One mainly examines the first two sets of questions under the heading 'Urbanisation and Internal Migration', while Part Two, which is titled 'Migration Selectivity and Causation', is principally concerned with the third and fourth sets of questions. This structuring of the thesis, however, is simply a way of making the data more manageable, as the two parts are complementary. In the final chapter particular attention Is given to summarising the findings and showing the interrelationships between the two sections.
1.6 Data Sources In Inter rial M Igration St udies in Australia
In most chapters of the thesis a number of different sources of data have been used on account of the incompleteness and deficiencies of
individual sources. Internal migration has been described as the most 36
difficult component of population change to measure, because it requires a level of detail which is often unavailable, even in countries where population statistics have been collected regularly for a hundred years or more. The first census of Victoria as a separate colony was held in 1854
37
and fourteen censuses have been conducted since then. Yet until 1971, no official statistics on internal migration were collected, possibly reflecting government pre-occupation with other population matters,
especially growth and immigration. Internal migration studies in Australia, therefore, have necessarily been dependent on alternative data sources.
The main ones used in the past were electoral rolls, net-migration estimates from consecutive censuses, and small surveys of migration. Some current research on local mobility in Melbourne is using information from State Electricity Commission records, while electoral rolls are being employed in studies of population movement in Adelaide, New South Wales and Western Australia
Shryock, Henry S. and Siegel, Jacob S., The Methods and Materials of Demography, Volume 2, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, 1973, p.616. 37
Victorian censuses are discussed in Arnold, V.H., Victorian Yearbook, 1973 (Centenary Edition), A.B.S., Melbourne, 1973, pp.11-22.
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The authors of this research are:
L.A. De Castro Lopo, Department of Geography, University of Western Australia, (migration in Western Australia). J.S. Humphreys, Department of Geography,
Monash University, (migration in Melbourne). L. Turner, Department of Geography, University of New South Wales, (migration in New South Wales), B.J. Ward,
