Chapter Thirteen – Counting timeChapter Thirteen

Each 90 degree rotation represents one full Each 90 degree rotation represents one full season of the earth – spring, summer, autumn, season of the earth – spring, summer, autumn, winter – with the true beginning and ending of winter – with the true beginning and ending of these seasons determined by the earth’s position these seasons determined by the earth’s position relative to the

relative to the sun (the equinox). sun (the equinox). In the southernIn the southern hemisphere, our summer actually begins on hemisphere, our summer actually begins on or around 21 December each year culminating or around 21 December each year culminating approximately three months later on or around approximately three months later on or around 21 March.

21 March.

During that period, the earth will have travelled During that period, the earth will have travelled exactly 90 degrees around the sun

exactly 90 degrees around the sun in 90 days. in 90 days. AsAs the season (or cycle) of summer ends, the season the season (or cycle) of summer ends, the season of autumn beings, and so we travel another 90 of autumn beings, and so we travel another 90 degrees which ends on 22

degrees which ends on 22 June. June. Whilst theWhilst the earth has rotated another 90 degrees during that earth has rotated another 90 degrees during that period, it has taken us a total of 93 calendar days period, it has taken us a total of 93 calendar days to get there.

to get there.

The two equal 90 degree movements in time, The two equal 90 degree movements in time, have not been represented by two equal have not been represented by two equal movements in days. The earth’s ‘natural divisions movements in days. The earth’s ‘natural divisions of time’ as it moves through its seasons is of time’ as it moves through its seasons is summarised in the table below

summarised in the table below. . Each divisionEach division is an equal 90 degrees in time, but will vary in is an equal 90 degrees in time, but will vary in length according to the calendar.

length according to the calendar.

The natural divisions of time explain why you

will sometimes see time counts in the market

expiring exactly on a 90 day period and others

on a period of 92 to 94 days.

The highest probability daily time counts

The highest probability daily time counts Now that we have a firm grasp on how time Now that we have a firm grasp on how time counts can be measured in degrees, I would like counts can be measured in degrees, I would like to share with you what I consider to be the most to share with you what I consider to be the most important divisions of a yearly cycle to look for important divisions of a yearly cycle to look for when determining future daily changes in trend. when determining future daily changes in trend. In my experience, the time counts which occur In my experience, the time counts which occur the most consistently in all financial markets to the most consistently in all financial markets to product market tops or bottoms are:

product market tops or bottoms are:

•

• 90 degrees (or m90 degrees (or multiples of 90 degrees)ultiples of 90 degrees) by dividing the cycle into quarters; and by dividing the cycle into quarters; and •

• 120 degrees (or multiples of 120 degrees (or multiples of 120 degrees)120 degrees) by dividing the cycle into thirds

by dividing the cycle into thirds T

Toottaal l ddeeggrreeees s ttrraavveelllleedd DDaayys s bbeettwweeeen n eeaacch h sseeaassoonn TToottaal l ddaayys s ttrraavveelllleedd

0°

0° _{21 March (start)}_{21 March (start)}

90° 90° 2222JJuunnee 9933ddaayyss 9933ddaayyss 180° 180° 2233SSeepptteemmbbeerr 9933ddaayyss 118866ddaayyss 270° 270° 2211DDeecceemmbbeerr 8899ddaayyss 227755ddaayyss 360° 360° 2211MMaarrcchh((eenndd)) 9900ddaayyss 336655ddaayyss

If you are using the calendar year as your cycle, If you are using the calendar year as your cycle, each of these divisions of time represented by the each of these divisions of time represented by the Square and the Triangle, will give you the highest Square and the Triangle, will give you the highest probability day counts to watch for future changes probability day counts to watch for future changes in trend.

in trend.

In my experience, I have noticed the following In my experience, I have noticed the following daily time and/or daily degree counts work daily time and/or daily degree counts work the most consistently and have the highest the most consistently and have the highest probabilities of producing a future change in trend. probabilities of producing a future change in trend. In order of importance:

In order of importance:

1st

1st 90 90 days days or or 90 90 degreesdegrees 2nd

2nd 180 180 days days or or 180 180 degreesdegrees 3rd

3rd 120 120 days days or or 120 120 degreesdegrees 4th

4th 42 42 to to 49 49 days days (not (not degrees) degrees) –– but look mainly for 45 day counts but look mainly for 45 day counts 5th

5th 240 240 and and 270 270 days days or or 240 240 andand 270 degrees (equal importance) 270 degrees (equal importance)

In my opinion, these are the most important daily In my opinion, these are the most important daily time counts to watch – in all markets

time counts to watch – in all markets

0 0ºº//336600ºº 00ºº//336600ºº 270º or 270º or 3/4 3/4 180º or 180º or 1/2 1/2 90º or 90º or 1/4 1/4 120º or 120º or 1/3 1/3 240º or 240º or 2/3 2/3 Divisi

Divisions ons of of a a cycle cycle IllustratiIllustration on 13.0113.01

Gann often spoke about the importance of

these divisions and that they should be applied

to all cycles of time, whether we are working of

a daily, weekly, yearly or even hourly

time count.

•

• By dividBy dividing cycling cycles into ques into quarters anarters and thirds,d thirds, we are creating both a square and triangle we are creating both a square and triangle within the circle (or cycle) of time. within the circle (or cycle) of time. •

• The poiThe point of each nt of each square and square and triangle witriangle willll represent key milestones which need to be represent key milestones which need to be watched in any time frame or cycle. watched in any time frame or cycle.

How to calculate calendar time into

degrees

Nowadays, there are a number of charting Nowadays, there are a number of charting programs which do all the hard work for you programs which do all the hard work for you and will accurately convert a daily calendar time and will accurately convert a daily calendar time count into a

count into a daily degree count. daily degree count. If you do notIf you do not have such charting software however, a simple have such charting software however, a simple internet search of an Ephemeris will give you the internet search of an Ephemeris will give you the information you need to convert calendar time information you need to convert calendar time into degrees.

into degrees.

An Ephemeris provides us with the position of An Ephemeris provides us with the position of the earth relative to the sun and measures it the earth relative to the sun and measures it in degrees for each calendar day of the year. in degrees for each calendar day of the year. Fortunately for us, the rocket scientists at Fortunately for us, the rocket scientists at NASA have ﬁgured out the complex series of NASA have ﬁgured out the complex series of mathematical calculations that go behind this mathematical calculations that go behind this information.

information. All we have to do is look up the data.All we have to do is look up the data. It is important to recognise that the division of It is important to recognise that the division of one full cycle of time each year is divided into 12 one full cycle of time each year is divided into 12 equal sections of 30 degrees.

equal sections of 30 degrees. For those of youFor those of you who read your daily horoscope, it is the twelve who read your daily horoscope, it is the twelve signs of the zodiac which are used even by the signs of the zodiac which are used even by the NASA rocket scientists to calculate the position NASA rocket scientists to calculate the position of the earth’s movement relative to the sun. of the earth’s movement relative to the sun. The twelve signs and their corresponding position The twelve signs and their corresponding position when measured in degrees is as follows. when measured in degrees is as follows.

Noo.. SSyymmbbooll PPoossiittiioon n iin n ddeeggrreeeess LLaattiin n nnaammee

Approx. calendar date Approx. calendar date when each period starts when each period starts every year every year 1 1 00° ° tto o 3300°° AArriieess 221 1 MMaarrcchh 2 2 3300° ° tto o 6600°° TTaauurruuss 220 0 AApprriill 3 3 6600° ° tto o 990 0 °° GGeemmiinnii 221 1 MMaayy 4 4 9900° ° tto o 112200°° CCaanncceerr 222 2 JJuunnee 5 5 112200° ° tto o 115500°° LLeeoo 223 3 JJuullyy 6 6 115500° ° tto o 118800°° VViirrggoo 223 3 AAuugguusstt 7 7 118800° ° tto o 221100°° LLiibbrraa 223 3 SSeepptteemmbbeerr 8 8 221100° ° tto o 224400°° SSccoorrppiioo 224 4 OOccttoobbeerr 9 9 224400° ° tto o 227700°° SSaaggiittttaarriiuuss 223 3 NNoovveemmbbeerr 10 10 227700° ° tto o 330000°° CCaapprriiccoorrnn 221 1 DDeecceemmbbeerr 11 11 330000° ° tto o 333300°° AAqquuaarriiuuss 221 1 JJaannuuaarryy 12 12 333300° ° tto o 336600°° PPiisscceess 119 9 FFeebbrruuaarryy

In order to ﬁnd the position of a market top or

bottom in degrees, you will need to identify

where it is in the division of the calendar year.

For example, on 4

For example, on 4 October 2011, the sun wasOctober 2011, the sun was in

in the the position position 10 10 25. In other 25. In other words, words, wewe were 10 degrees into

were 10 degrees into the sign of Libra. the sign of Libra. As LibraAs Libra commences at 180 degrees, if we have travelled commences at 180 degrees, if we have travelled a further 10 degrees into this sign, then according a further 10 degrees into this sign, then according to the rocket scientists, we must be 190 degrees to the rocket scientists, we must be 190 degrees into the cycle.

into the cycle.

As the 90 degree and 180 degree time counts As the 90 degree and 180 degree time counts are the most important to watch, we would are the most important to watch, we would naturally calculate the exact date to tell us when naturally calculate the exact date to tell us when time has moved 90 degrees from the 4 October time has moved 90 degrees from the 4 October 2011 low

2011 low. . As the 4 October 2011 low As the 4 October 2011 low is startingis starting at 190 degrees, an additional 90 degrees takes us at 190 degrees, an additional 90 degrees takes us to 280 degrees.

to 280 degrees. Referring to the Referring to the previous table,previous table, we can see that this would mean 10 degrees we can see that this would mean 10 degrees into Capricorn .

into Capricorn . Repeating the process again Repeating the process again toto calculate our 180 degrees movement would bring calculate our 180 degrees movement would bring us to 370 degrees, which is the same as us to 370 degrees, which is the same as 10 degrees into Aires .

10 degrees into Aires .

By using an Ephemeris we can look up the corresponding calendar dates for the following points of time By using an Ephemeris we can look up the corresponding calendar dates for the following points of time when measured in degrees:

when measured in degrees:

4 OctobOctober er 2011 2011 (start)(start)= = 10 10 2525 4 October 201

4 October 2011 + 1 + 90 degrees = 90 degrees = 10 10 25 (which gives 25 (which gives us Monday, us Monday, 2 January 2 January 2012)2012) 4 October 201

4 October 2011 + 1 + 180 degrees = 180 degrees = 10 10 25 (which 25 (which gives us Saturday, gives us Saturday, 31 March 31 March 20122012))

It just happened to be that 2 January 2012 was a It just happened to be that 2 January 2012 was a public holiday and 31 March 2012 was a Saturday public holiday and 31 March 2012 was a Saturday – both being dates where the market did not – both being dates where the market did not trade.

trade. In circumstances where a time In circumstances where a time count incount in degrees occurs on a weekend or non-trading degrees occurs on a weekend or non-trading day, you should closely observe the market on day, you should closely observe the market on both the trading days immediately preceding both the trading days immediately preceding and following your

and following your calculated date. calculated date. In the caseIn the case of 31 March 2012, this would mean we watch of 31 March 2012, this would mean we watch Friday, 30 March 2012 and Mond

Friday, 30 March 2012 and Monday, 2 April 2012ay, 2 April 2012 as the two trading dates.

as the two trading dates. As you can see on As you can see on thethe following chart, Monday 2 April 2012 produced a following chart, Monday 2 April 2012 produced a very signiﬁcant top in the S&P500 index. very signiﬁcant top in the S&P500 index.

The following chart highlights a number of The following chart highlights a number of significant time counts in degrees that produced significant time counts in degrees that produced significant changes in trend in just over a full significant changes in trend in just over a full calendar year period from the 4 October 2011 low calendar year period from the 4 October 2011 low in the

in the S&P 500. S&P 500. I have used I have used various importantvarious important tops and bottoms as the starting points, and have tops and bottoms as the starting points, and have calculated the signiﬁcant time counts in degrees calculated the signiﬁcant time counts in degrees to measure future

to measure future dates. dates. Notice how the ﬁrst 1Notice how the ﬁrst 18080 degree count from 4 Oc

degree count from 4 October 2011 to 2 April 2012tober 2011 to 2 April 2012 was exactly 180 days, but the second 180 degree was exactly 180 days, but the second 180 degree count between the May to November 2012 highs count between the May to November 2012 highs occurred over a period of 185 days.

occurred over a period of 185 days.

This is an example where time counts in degrees can pin point your turning points to This is an example where time counts in degrees can pin point your turning points to the exact day whereas calendar day counts would have left you just

S&P

S&P 500 500 Stock Stock Index Index – – 1 1 Day Day Bar Bar Chart Chart – – USD USD 13.0213.02

1520 – 1520 – 1320 – 1320 – 1120 – 1120 – 1560 – 1560 – 1360 – 1360 – 1160 – 1160 – 1040 – 1040 – 1240 – 1240 – 1440 – 1440 – 1080 – 1080 – 1280 – 1280 – 1480 – 1480 – 1600 – 1600 – 1400 – 1400 – 1200 – 1200 – S SEEPP OOCCTT NNOOVV DDEECC JJAANN FFEEBB MMAARR AAPPRR MMAAYY JJUUNN JJUULL AUAUGG SSEEPP OOCCTT NNOOVV 120 DEGREE COUNT 120 DEGREE COUNT 90 DEGREE COUNT 90 DEGREE COUNT 180 DEGREE COUNT 180 DEGREE COUNT 2 NOV 2012 2 NOV 2012 5 OCT 2012 5 OCT 2012 4 JUN 2012 4 JUN 2012 1 MAY 2012

1 MAY 2012 2 AUG 20122 AUG 2012

4 OCT 2011

In my analysis, I use time counts in

degrees to measure future dates from

tops and bottoms 90, 120, 180, 240 &

270 degrees apart.

For all of my other daily time counts, I stick to a For all of my other daily time counts, I stick to a daily calendar day time count and use my ‘trading daily calendar day time count and use my ‘trading to Time’ as the

to Time’ as the dates to watch. dates to watch. Accordingly, I doAccordingly, I do not measure the interim time counts of 30, 45 not measure the interim time counts of 30, 45 and 60 in degrees.

and 60 in degrees. I have found that I have found that these simplythese simply do not produce any consistent results to base do not produce any consistent results to base your trading off.

your trading off.

I have observed that without doubt, the 90 I have observed that without doubt, the 90 and 180 degree time counts are the two most and 180 degree time counts are the two most consistent counts in degrees which work in all consistent counts in degrees which work in all ﬁnancial markets.

financial markets. If you go back and If you go back and reviewreview a historical chart of any stock, currency or a historical chart of any stock, currency or commodity, you will soon see the number of commodity, you will soon see the number of times that significant, tradeable changes in trend times that significant, tradeable changes in trend occurs either 90 or 180 degrees away from a occurs either 90 or 180 degrees away from a previous top or bottom – it is truly astonishing! previous top or bottom – it is truly astonishing!

The predictable yearly highs and lows in 2000 and 2001

The following chart is a daily bar chart of the Australian equity markets futures contract – the Share The following chart is a daily bar chart of the Australian equity markets futures contract – the Share Price Index.

Price Index. We referred to this chart in an earlier chapter where we We referred to this chart in an earlier chapter where we discussed repeating cycles of price.discussed repeating cycles of price. In that example, I mentioned why I thought it was quite easy to anticipate the key dates which the market In that example, I mentioned why I thought it was quite easy to anticipate the key dates which the market was going to turn on during that period of trading.

was going to turn on during that period of trading.

Each of the dates in the following chart represents a very signiﬁcant turning point in the marke

Each of the dates in the following chart represents a very significant turning point in the market. t. Gann wasGann was aware of the significance of these exact time frames each year – all of which were permanently marked in aware of the significance of these exact time frames each year – all of which were permanently marked in his Master Square of Nine Calculator.

his Master Square of Nine Calculator.

22 March March 2000 2000 (cycle (cycle top) top) + + 180 180 degrees degrees = = 22 22 September September 2000 2000 low low (major (major low)low) 22

22 September September 2000 2000 low low + + 45 45 degrees degrees = = 7 7 November November 2000 2000 (yearly (yearly top)top) 22

22 September September 2000 2000 low low + + 90 90 degrees degrees = = 21 21 December December 2000 2000 low low (major (major low)low) 21

21 DecembeDecember r 2000 2000 low low + + 90 90 degrees degrees = = 23 23 March March 2001 2001 low low (major (major low)low) 23

23 March March 2001 2001 low low + + 180 180 degrees degrees = = 24 24 September September 2001 2001 (yearly (yearly low)low)

In the following example, I have also highlighted In the following example, I have also highlighted the 29 March 2001 low which was a double the 29 March 2001 low which was a double bottom with 23 March 2001.

bottom with 23 March 2001. You will You will see thatsee that the yearly top in 2001 occurred on 29 June – the yearly top in 2001 occurred on 29 June – exactly 90 degrees from the 29 March 2001 low – exactly 90 degrees from the 29 March 2001 low – proving again, how powerful a tool measuring 90 proving again, how powerful a tool measuring 90 and 180 time counts in degrees can be for calling and 180 time counts in degrees can be for calling major market tops and bottoms.

major market tops and bottoms.

In document Trading With the Time Factor - Volume 2.1 (FINAL - Production) (Page 57-69)

Chapter Thirteen – Counting timeChapter Thirteen – Counting time