Silver – Trading to Time (Monthly Dates)
Silver – Trading to Time (Monthly Dates) Illustration 12.01Illustration 12.01
20.00 - 20.00 - 22.00 - 22.00 - 24.00 - 24.00 - 26.00 - 26.00 - 28.00 - 28.00 - 30.00 - 30.00 - 32.00 - 32.00 - 34.00 - 34.00 - 36.00 - 36.00 - 38.00 - 38.00 - 40.00 - 40.00 - 42.00 - 42.00 - 44.00 - 44.00 - 46.00 - 46.00 - 48.00 - 48.00 - 50.00 - 50.00 - 2 2001111 22001122 22001133 JAN 28 JAN 28 2011 2011 JUN 28 JUN 28 2011 2011 SEP 26 SEP 26 2011 2011 DEC 29 DEC 29 2011 2011 JUN 28JUN 28 2012 2012 APR 28 APR 28 2011 2011 OCT 28 OCT 28 2011 2011 FEB 29 FEB 29 2012 2012 NOV 29 NOV 29 2012 2012 AUG 28 AUG 28 2013 2013 JUN 28 JUN 28 2013 2013 DEC 31 DEC 31 2013 2013 USD / OZ USD / OZ
By observing the markets closely, and the day By observing the markets closely, and the day of the month where major and minor tops and of the month where major and minor tops and bottoms are formed, you will soon discover that bottoms are formed, you will soon discover that the market will ‘tell’ you which date (or time) in the market will ‘tell’ you which date (or time) in the month you should be watching for future tops the month you should be watching for future tops or bottoms to occur.
or bottoms to occur.
The ‘trading to Time’ technique will improve the
The ‘trading to Time’ technique will improve the
accuracy of your long term forecasts and help
accuracy of your long term forecasts and help
you to pin-point the exact date of a forecast
you to pin-point the exact date of a forecast
future market top or bottom.
future market top or bottom.
Knowing when a trading to Time date
Knowing when a trading to Time date
will work and when it won’t
will work and when it won’t In our experience analysing and trading the In our experience analysing and trading the markets, Bob and I have observed that markets markets, Bob and I have observed that markets will work to their own particular behaviour or will work to their own particular behaviour or rhythm, and will tend to favour one particular day rhythm, and will tend to favour one particular day in the month over others over a twelve to twenty- in the month over others over a twelve to twenty- four month period.
four month period.
For example, the silver market was clearly For example, the silver market was clearly favouring the 28th of the month in the three year favouring the 28th of the month in the three year period between 2011 and 2013, and the period between 2011 and 2013, and the marketmarket was producing more significant turning points on was producing more significant turning points on this day of the month than any other – this is what this day of the month than any other – this is what I refer to as an ‘active trading to
I refer to as an ‘active trading to Time date’. Time date’. ThisThis does not mean that all markets will therefore be does not mean that all markets will therefore be turning on the same day of the month.
turning on the same day of the month.
A currency or stock index during that same period A currency or stock index during that same period for example, may be favouring the 15th of the for example, may be favouring the 15th of the month as its ‘active trading to Time date’ to make month as its ‘active trading to Time date’ to make its significant turns.
its significant turns.
Now it would be great if the same market Now it would be great if the same market continued to make significant tops and bottoms continued to make significant tops and bottoms on the same active trading to Time date each on the same active trading to Time date each month for the
month for the next one hundred years. next one hundred years. OfOf course, it isn’t that
course, it isn’t that easy. easy. What you will noticeWhat you will notice by reviewing the daily charts and observing the by reviewing the daily charts and observing the dates of key turning points in your chosen market, dates of key turning points in your chosen market, is that a particular active monthly date which has is that a particular active monthly date which has been working for a certain period will begin to been working for a certain period will begin to ‘phase out’ – producing less significant turning ‘phase out’ – producing less significant turning points or none at
points or none at all. all. Typically, when Typically, when one activeone active date begins to phase out, it will be replaced by a date begins to phase out, it will be replaced by a new active date in the month which will begin to new active date in the month which will begin to produce significant tops and bottoms.
produce significant tops and bottoms.
For example, although the silver market has been For example, although the silver market has been working to the 28th of the month for the last working to the 28th of the month for the last three years, I will be watching for the next major three years, I will be watching for the next major top or bottom that forms on a different day of the top or bottom that forms on a different day of the month to start calling future tops and bottoms. month to start calling future tops and bottoms. Let’s just say the 6th of the month gives us a very Let’s just say the 6th of the month gives us a very significant low – it is at that point that I will begin significant low – it is at that point that I will begin watching both the 6th of the month and the 28th watching both the 6th of the month and the 28th of the month and waiting to see if the market of the month and waiting to see if the market begins fading out the 28th in favour of the 6th. begins fading out the 28th in favour of the 6th. After a major top or bottom has been made,
After a major top or bottom has been made,
watch the same day of the month which that
watch the same day of the month which that
top or bottom was made – this will produce an
top or bottom was made – this will produce an
‘active trading to Time date’ that can be used
‘active trading to Time date’ that can be used
to call future market tops and bottoms
to call future market tops and bottoms
Once a new active monthly date is in, continue Once a new active monthly date is in, continue to watch both the new date and the old – the to watch both the new date and the old – the market will soon tell you which one it is beginning market will soon tell you which one it is beginning
trading to Time – S&P500 2011 to 2012
trading to Time – S&P500 2011 to 2012 The following chart illustrates a series of The following chart illustrates a series of significant turning points occurring in the S&P500 significant turning points occurring in the S&P500 market on repeating monthly anniversary dates. market on repeating monthly anniversary dates. A number of key dates are highlighted which A number of key dates are highlighted which produced significant turns on the 16th or the 18th produced significant turns on the 16th or the 18th of each month.
of each month. You will see that fYou will see that following theseollowing these sequence of turns, a major high was made on 2 sequence of turns, a major high was made on 2 May 2012.
May 2012.
At this point, 2 May now becomes our new At this point, 2 May now becomes our new reference point, and we begin looking for reference point, and we begin looking for significant turning points to occur on the second significant turning points to occur on the second day of the month (or very early on in the month) day of the month (or very early on in the month) going forward.
going forward. Notice how oNotice how over the never the next calendarxt calendar year major turns were subsequently made on year major turns were subsequently made on 4 October 2011, 2 April 2012, 4 June 2012 and 4 October 2011, 2 April 2012, 4 June 2012 and finally 5 October 2012 (which was a day out from finally 5 October 2012 (which was a day out from the annual anniversary the year bef
the annual anniversary the year before). ore). Further,Further, by studying a daily chart of the S&P500 during by studying a daily chart of the S&P500 during this time, you will also see that other tradeable this time, you will also see that other tradeable turning points were made on 1 May, 3 July, 2 turning points were made on 1 May, 3 July, 2 August and 2 November 2012 – all of them being August and 2 November 2012 – all of them being on or around the active trading to Time date. on or around the active trading to Time date. At the end of this book, I will walk you through At the end of this book, I will walk you through a series of emails which I had written which a series of emails which I had written which identified in advance that each of these dates identified in advance that each of these dates were key times to watch.
S&P 500 Stock Index
S&P 500 Stock Index – 1 Day Bar Chart – USD– 1 Day Bar Chart – USD Illustration 12.02Illustration 12.02
1050 – 1050 – 1100 – 1100 – 1150 – 1150 – 1200 – 1200 – 1250 – 1250 – 1300 – 1300 – 1350 – 1350 – 1400 – 1400 – 1450 – 1450 – 1550 – 1550 – 1500 – 1500 – 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 5 OCT 2012 5 OCT 2012 16 JUN 2011 16 JUN 2011 18 APR 2011 18 APR 2011 14 SEP 2012 14 SEP 2012 16 MAR 2011 16 MAR 2011 2 APR 2012 2 APR 2012 4 JUN 2012 4 JUN 2012 18 NOV 2010 18 NOV 2010 15 NOV 2012 15 NOV 2012 4 OCT 2011 4 OCT 2011 2 MAY 2011 2 MAY 2011 18 FEB 2011 18 FEB 2011
Learning how to count time not only in calendar Learning how to count time not only in calendar days, but in mathematical degrees will further days, but in mathematical degrees will further improve your ability to pin point and forecast improve your ability to pin point and forecast future turning points in
future turning points in the markets. the markets. In particular,In particular, this Trading Tool will help you enormously to this Trading Tool will help you enormously to identify which one of your trading to Time dates identify which one of your trading to Time dates will have a higher probability of producing a will have a higher probability of producing a significant change in trend than other monthly significant change in trend than other monthly dates.
dates.
Every good book or course written about Gann Every good book or course written about Gann has covered this topic in one way or another– has covered this topic in one way or another– and with very good reason.
and with very good reason. I believe it I believe it waswas this discovery by Gann which completely this discovery by Gann which completely revolutionised the approach to technical analysis revolutionised the approach to technical analysis and the way some analysts look at trading the and the way some analysts look at trading the markets.
markets.
The biggest thing to overcome however about The biggest thing to overcome however about counting time in degrees, is accepting the way counting time in degrees, is accepting the way in which Gann discovered how to calculate it. in which Gann discovered how to calculate it. Whilst there is nothing overly complex about it, it Whilst there is nothing overly complex about it, it will require you to keep
will require you to keep an open mind. an open mind. Hopefully,Hopefully, this chapter goes some way in letting the market this chapter goes some way in letting the market demonstrate to you the power of this tool and demonstrate to you the power of this tool and how keeping an open mind can significantly how keeping an open mind can significantly benefit your trading.
benefit your trading.
How to calculate and divide a yearly cycle
How to calculate and divide a yearly cycle
of time
of time
Gann covers this topic in some way or form Gann covers this topic in some way or form in nearly all of his books and trading courses. in nearly all of his books and trading courses. Unfortunately, the clarity of his message is at Unfortunately, the clarity of his message is at best, difficult to understand, so you really need to best, difficult to understand, so you really need to know what to look for when he discusses it. know what to look for when he discusses it.
He covers the topic well in chapter 7 of his He covers the topic well in chapter 7 of his Master Stock Market Course, but goes into a Master Stock Market Course, but goes into a great level of detail in chapter III of his book great level of detail in chapter III of his book How to Make Profits in Commodities on pages How to Make Profits in Commodities on pages 56 to 59.
56 to 59.
In his discussion on how to forecast daily moves, In his discussion on how to forecast daily moves, Gann outlines the importance to watch for a Gann outlines the importance to watch for a change in trend 30 days from the last top or change in trend 30 days from the last top or bottom, and then again for changes 60, 90, 120 bottom, and then again for changes 60, 90, 120 and 180 days for significant tops or bottoms. and 180 days for significant tops or bottoms. Those day counts that Gann refers to however Those day counts that Gann refers to however are simplifications of how to actually calculate the are simplifications of how to actually calculate the time frames you need to watch.
time frames you need to watch. In How to MakeIn How to Make Profits in Commodities, Gann describes the time Profits in Commodities, Gann describes the time period of 90 to 98 days
period of 90 to 98 days as an important time. as an important time. TheThe problem with trying to trade or forecast using a problem with trying to trade or forecast using a day count as wide as this, is that it spans a time day count as wide as this, is that it spans a time frame of eight calendar days – and quite a bit can frame of eight calendar days – and quite a bit can happen in the market over eight days!
happen in the market over eight days!
The eight day time span Gann referred to, was an The eight day time span Gann referred to, was an oversimplification, as he had actually devised a oversimplification, as he had actually devised a method to calculate the exact date or time period method to calculate the exact date or time period to look for
to look for. . The secret behind understanding howThe secret behind understanding how Gann did this is covered when he discusses the Gann did this is covered when he discusses the concept of ‘How to Divide the Yearly Time Period’ concept of ‘How to Divide the Yearly Time Period’ in his books and courses.
in his books and courses. To illustrate, To illustrate, in hisin his book How to Make Profits in Commodities, Gann book How to Make Profits in Commodities, Gann outlines that you should:
outlines that you should:
Divide the year by 4 to get the 3 months’
Divide the year by 4 to get the 3 months’
period or 90 days, which is 1/4 of a year or
period or 90 days, which is 1/4 of a year or
13 weeks
13 weeks
What Gann is actually doing here is dividing the What Gann is actually doing here is dividing the calendar year into 4
calendar year into 4 equal parts. equal parts. To accuratelyTo accurately determine the correct day count however, you determine the correct day count however, you need to view the calendar year as one complete need to view the calendar year as one complete cycle (or circle).
cycle (or circle). The laws of mathematics haveThe laws of mathematics have taught us that each circle is made up with a taught us that each circle is made up with a rotation of 360 degrees.
rotation of 360 degrees. So according to Gann’So according to Gann’ss logic, once we have travelled 360 degrees in the logic, once we have travelled 360 degrees in the circle, we have completed a full cycle.
circle, we have completed a full cycle.
I hope by now that in reading this book you have I hope by now that in reading this book you have been able to keep a pretty open mind about been able to keep a pretty open mind about things and the way geometrical relationships things and the way geometrical relationships influence the markets.
influence the markets. What I am about toWhat I am about to show you is how to calculate mathematically the show you is how to calculate mathematically the divisions of time that influence the daily time divisions of time that influence the daily time counts you will see reoccurring again and again in counts you will see reoccurring again and again in the markets.
the markets.
By viewing the calendar year as one cycle of time, By viewing the calendar year as one cycle of time, a period of 365 calendar days needs to elapse a period of 365 calendar days needs to elapse before we have completed one full circle (or 360 before we have completed one full circle (or 360 degrees) of time.
degrees) of time. If we divided the year into fourIf we divided the year into four,, as Gann tells us to do, we would end up with as Gann tells us to do, we would end up with 91.25 calendar days in each quarterly division of 91.25 calendar days in each quarterly division of the yearly cycle.
the yearly cycle. The issue here howeThe issue here however is thatver is that the earth does not travel exactly 91.25 calendar the earth does not travel exactly 91.25 calendar days in each 90 degree cycle
days in each 90 degree cycle of time. of time. The reasonThe reason for this phenomenon is because it takes varying for this phenomenon is because it takes varying degrees of time (in calendar days) for the earth degrees of time (in calendar days) for the earth to make a 90 degree rotation around the sun. to make a 90 degree rotation around the sun. And that’s not crazy talk – it is scientific fact. And that’s not crazy talk – it is scientific fact.