Cloud Computing as a New and Emerging Technology

Businesses, market forecasters, and academic researchers have identified cloud computing as an emerging technology (Buyya et al. 2009; Xu 2010; Johnson et al. 2010; Kroski 2009; Gartner 2009; Voas and Zhang 2009; Hutchinson, Ward, and Castilon; Vizard 2011; Wakunuma, Stahl, and Ikonen 2011; Wu et al. 2010). The term “emerging technology” is empirical in focus, referring to the status of technologies with respect to actual markets and in comparison to substitutable technologies. Cozzens and colleagues (2005) examined nearly 2,000 articles and conclude that there was no clear consensus on the meaning of the term,

however. The major concepts that they found in the literature related to “emerging

technologies” suggest that such technologies show fast recent growth, are in the process of transition and/or change to something new, have market or economic potential that is not exploited fully yet, and are increasingly science-based (18). Day and Schoemaker (2000) define emerging technologies to be those technologies for which “(1) the knowledge base is expanding, (2) the application to existing markets is undergoing transformation, and (3) new markets are being tapped or created” (2). They add that these technologies have the potential to create or transform an industry.

The notion of emerging technologies relies upon theories related to technology evolution. According to Everett Rogers (2003), technological evolution comes about through a process by which innovative technologies diffuse throughout a social system. “Diffusion is the process by which (1) an innovation (2) is communicated through certain channels (3) over time (4) among the members of a social system” (Rogers, 11). Innovation is “an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption” (12). The market accepts new ideas or products insofar as people perceive them as being better than the technology previously available to them; being compatible with their values, experience, and needs; being relatively easy to understand and use; being capable of being experimented with or tried out “on a limited basis” (16); and having results that are publicly visible. Rogers focuses on the perception of novelty as opposed to attempting to provide an objective criterion of novelty.

Although some new technologies dramatically arrive on the scene with no

commercial (or technical) precursors, such a situation is rare (Adner and Levinthal 2002). Often, emerging technologies appear to be dramatically new but in fact have existed for some

time in a small market niche. When market characteristics in a different niche from that in which they have developed are appropriate, they can then be transferred to that new niche and taken up by the public. If the new niche has adequate resources to support the technology and if the technology serves market needs, the dramatic appeal of the technology makes it appear as if it is brand new. In other words, one can distinguish between a technology’s technical development and its market application (52). A technology can represent a

“convergence of existing technologies,” (Voas and Zhang 2009, 16) and still be characterized as an emerging technology if it has the potential for dramatic disruption of markets.

Technological novelty can come about by three separate mechanisms: platform innovation, component innovation, or design innovation (or a combination of these) (Sood and Tellis 2005). Platform innovation occurs when a new technology is developed using scientific principles that are obviously different from those of currently existing technologies. Component innovation occurs when new parts or materials are introduced to an existing platform. Design evolution occurs when the linkages and layout of components are

reconfigured within the same technological platform (153). These three types of innovation can potentially lead either to incremental or radical innovation and the subsequent

development of an emerging technology. Thus, emerging technologies sometimes engender a large change in technology and sometimes engender only a relatively minor change or

merely an introduction to a new market niche followed by large-scale public adoption. When examining cloud computing for its impacts on recordkeeping professionals, it suffices to treat it as merely a “new” technology. Much of the literature on emerging

technologies focuses either on how the technology emerges (Hamilton and Singh 1992; Adner and Levinthal 2000, 2002; Avila-Robinson and Miyazaki 2011; Barnes, Buckland, and

Brancheau 1992; Sood and Tellis 2005), upon the macroeconomic impacts of emerging technologies in general on nations (Hung and Chu 2006; Cozzens 2009; OECD 2007), or on management techniques for discovering and managing nascent technology in order to take advantage of the potential growth for organizational purposes (Kostoff, Boylan, and Simons 2004; Hutchinson, Ward, and Castilon 2009; Day and Schoemaker 2000; Marmor, Lawson, and Terapane 1979; Wheatley and Wilemon 1999). However, the literature that examines the impacts of new technology adoption on workers often examines change management issues such as role change and stress caused by technology adoption (Axtell et al. 2002; Fisher and Wesolkowski; Lau et al. 2001; Nelson 1990; Parker, Wall, and Myers 1995; Salanova, Cifre, and Martin 2004; Tarafdar et al. 2007; Venkatesh, Morris, and Ackerman 2000; Wahlstedt and Edling 1997; Weil and Rosen 1997; Zorn, Hector, and Gibson 2008; Zorn 2002), productivity impacts (Mahmood and Mann 1993; Guthrie 2001), and structural impacts and linkages (Barley 1986, 1990; Burkhardt and Brass 1990; Guy and Skottz 2005; Hall 2002; Hall 2005; Hector 2003; Huber 1990; Lau et al. 2001; Levy and Murnane 2004; Myers and Young 1997; Nelson 1990; Wall and Clegg 1981; Weil and Rosen 1997). Although the various writers often treat the term “technology” in idiosyncratic ways that reflect their methodological stance, the conceptual descriptor “new” is relatively straightforward. By “new,” these authors simply mean a form of technology that the workers being studied have not previously encountered within their organizations.

Because of its relative novelty, however, identifying what comprises cloud computing can be difficult, since cloud computing appears to have come about through incremental changes that have largely been caused by component innovation and design innovation. That is to say, a number of already familiar technologies exist within the Cloud paradigm, but

have been modified slightly to scale upward and downward more easily, have been combined in ways that were not previously done, and use a new business model. Two key questions, therefore, are what is cloud computing and what is new about it?