Conclusion: Current trends and likely development pathways

The current shifting cultivation system in the study site Cusseque represents an ecological sustainable farming system that balances the temporal exploitation of soil nutrients with their regeneration via long-term forest fallow. This leads to relatively high and stable yields, allowing smallholders to sell a regular crop surplus.

Smallholders in the study site continue to perceive land to be available in abundance, as can e.g. be seen in the temporary relinquishment of land rights from the native communities Cambuela, Caulolo and Calomba to the non-native community Cusseque. Univocally, farmers expressed their firm believe that also in the future sufficient land will be available to cover the villages demand. Only members of the traditional authorities and some village elders, especially of the eastern-most village Calomba, expressed a certain anxiety about future development. This anxiety is connected to the fact that Calomba ceded land to another community from east of the study site called Satchijamba which subsequently degraded this land at a rapid pace for charcoal production. The strong increase in charcoal production in the study site since the tarring of the main road in 2010 may mark the beginning of a similar forest degradation process in the study site which could in the near future critically reduce the availability and quality of the available land for other uses, particularly agriculture. This trend

towards rising competition for land between different economic activities is even likely to increase in the future. For example, a few urbanites are considering opportunities for investments into agricultural production in the study site. Additionally, the Angolan government plans to massively invest into large-scale irrigation agriculture in currently natural lands. Combined with an ongoing and strong population growth in the study site, all of these trends indicate that it may be unrealistic to assume continuing land abundance in the study site.

As of yet, the typical farm-household in Cusseque appears to be unaware of this danger. If not countered by appropriate policy interventions, the currently sustainable shifting cultivation system of Cusseque is therefore unlikely to adapt to these trends. Instead, already over the next decade it may turn into a semi-permanent cultivation system22 with the typical phenomena of ongoing soil degradation and social stratification of rural households into more and less successful ones.

1.6.2 (Semi-) Permanent rain-fed agriculture in Mashare, Namibia

1.6.2.1 Climate, livelihoods and socioeconomic framework Biophysical setting

The study site Mashare lies at the Okavango’s middle reaches in northern Namibia, within extensive woodland savannah. At a mean altitude of 1090 m a.s.l., the vegetation is dominated by acacia tree-communities. It can be distinguished into the Kavango riverine vegetation and the thorn bushes of the Kalahari plain (De Cauwer 2013). While the riverine forests have largely been converted into agricultural lands, large tracts of thorn bush savanna do still remain in the study site. The area can furthermore be subdivided into three major landscape types (see Fig. 1.4 and Gröngröft et al. 2013c): i) the regularly flooded recent floodplains adjacent to the Okavango river (5 % of the area), ii) the old floodplains which are never or only very rarely affected by flooding (15 % of the area) and iii) the Kalahari dune area in the hinterlands, the dominating landscape type in Mashare (80 % of the area).

Fig. 1.4: Landscape catena of Mashare study site.

Source: Gröngröft et al. 2013c.

The recent floodplains show the highest variability in soil properties due to a regular input of sediments and thus nutrients by flooding events. Conditions in both the old floodplains and the Kalahari dune area are less variable and soils are generally characterized by low nutrient levels. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the Kalahari dune area, where the majority of still unutilized cropland is located (Gröngröft et al. 2013d). Currently, agricultural production is carried out mainly in depressions within the old floodplains and within dried-out river beds in the Kalahari dune area (Mendelsohn 2009, Gröngröft et al. 2013d), the so-called

omurambas. Here, soils are slightly loamy, have less acidic pH-values and significantly

higher total nutrient reserves than the dominating Arenosols of the Kalahari Dune Area (ibid.). However, to meet rising food demands in the study site, agricultural production is slowly expanding even onto these less fertile soils.

Climatic conditions in Mashare and the surrounding middle reaches of the catchment are semi-arid, with a pronounced rainy season from October to April (Weber 2013c). Mean annual rainfall amounted to 571 mm between 1971 and 2000 and showed a high inter-annual variability, whereas mean annual temperature was 22.3°C with October being the hottest (26.2°C) and July the coldest (16.2°C) months for the same period (Weber 2013c). Inter- annual temperature variability was moderate, with a slight increase since the late 1970s (ibid.).

Socioeconomic setting

Mashare is situated in the former north-Namibian region of Kavango, which was separated into West- and East-Kavango in 2013. Together, both Kavangos contain 222,500 people living on an area of 48,742 km² (Pröpper et al. 2015), resulting in a mean population density of 4.5 persons/km². However, because the Okavango river remains by far the most important and in many cases the only available source of drinking water in the region, the majority of households (68% of all rural residents) is forced to settle in a 10 km wide strip along the river (Mendelsohn 2009).

Thus, a look at the study site Mashare may provide a more realistic picture of actual population densities: here, an estimated population of 3216 persons or 518 households is living on an area of only 96.33 km², resulting in a mean population density of 33 persons/km² (Kowalski et al. 2013). Furthermore, homesteads are concentrated along the main roads and the Okavango river, indicating even higher densities in the fertile and well-connected areas. Strong competition for natural resources has long served as a driver of household migration to the hinterlands, yet migration possibilities depend on infrastructure, water availability and land rights/leasehold policies (Pröpper et al. 2015). As most boreholes and large tracts of land in the deeper hinterland belong to private leaseholders, migration potential to these areas is limited and most smallholders remain within walking distance of the river.

Natural population fertility in the study site is high and assumed to remain high in future (Pröpper et al. 2015). It thus acts as the main driver of population growth. Other contributing factors are in-migration of relatives (which is balanced to a certain degree by out-migration to urban centers of especially the younger generation - ibid.).

The study site consists of seven settlements which lie mainly within the more fertile old

floodplains along an old gravel road running parallel to the river (see Kowalski et al. 2013a

for more details). According to interviews with local headmen (traditional local authorities), these settlements have been established fairly recently: In the pre-1920’s, the area was used mainly by the hunter-gatherer society of the San; agriculturalists entered this area mainly after the 1920’s, the majority probably coming from the up-river Angolan highlands, but some presumably also from eastern regions. Between 1940 and 1962, large tracts of the study site was reserved for government use only and subsistence farming was not allowed in these areas. A second wave of settlement dates from the 1960’s, when the current villages were established along the river. This is reflected in the reports of older smallholders who stated that in their youth only a few households could be found at the location of today’s settlements, which were separated from each other by many kilometers of natural vegetation.

This allows for the following conclusion: the origins of Mashare’s farming practices are likely to be found in the shifting cultivation system of the Angolan highlands (see chapter 1.6.1), where soil conditions and precipitation is more beneficial to farming. Due to this, current livelihoods and farming practices cannot be seen as the result of long-term adaptation processes to local biophysical conditions. In fact, considering the rapid increase of population densities over the last half century, it is possible that the “traditional” farming system in Mashare presents a farming system that is badly adapted to local growing conditions.

Fig. 1.5: A map of study site Mashare and its seven settlements.

Source: Kowalski et al. (2013).

An all-weather tar road connects the study site to Namibia’s fast-growing urban hub Rundu in the west (30 km), as well as to other urban settlements such as Divundu in the east (130 km +) – see Fig. 1.5. Relatively reliable public transport is available on a gravel road that runs parallel to the tar road and connects the many rural settlements along the river with Rundu. Efforts towards electrification can be observed along the gravel road and provide a small number of shops, bars and households with electric energy (3.75 % of households). Cell- phone coverage is available throughout the study site. Otherwise, access to markets and public infrastructure can be regarded as very limited.

The following livelihood analysis proofs that Mashare represents an agrarian society (where animal or human labour are the main energy sources - see Sieferle 1997). It can therefore be analyzed using the Boserup-Ruthenberg framework. At the same time, the rising availability of fossil fuels and globally traded commodities has a limited, but increasing influence upon livelihoods. While 3.75% of households are connected to the electricity grid, Diesel generators, gas stoves or solar panels are used by less than 1% each as energy sources for cooking, heating or lighting. Fuel wood remains by far the dominant energy source; it is used by 98% of households. For 62% of households, the river remains the main source of drinking water, while 29% rely mainly on tab water and 8% on a borehole. Less than 2% of households use chemical fertilizer at least sometimes and less than 1% applies pesticides.

Livelihood strategies in Mashare

The following livelihood analysis is based on the household survey conducted in Mashare (see Kowalski et al. 2013). It revealed that smallholder households rely upon a variety of livelihood sources. However, arable agriculture remains the main livelihood source for the majority (practiced by 88% of households). Livestock keeping is another central livelihood source; yet, surprisingly, it is practiced by only 58% of all households. In fact, only 33% of all

households actually own cattle and herd sizes are highly skewed (three out of four livestock- owning households have cattle herds of less than 20 animals, while only a few households own cattle herds of up to 200 animals). An important complementary livelihood source for 100% of households is the use of natural resources. Key resources for both subsistence and cash income generation are fish, nuts and roots. Additionally, reeds represent the second most salient cash resource that is used within the study site (Domptail et al. 2012).

As is typical for many sedentary agriculturalist societies (Ruthenberg 1971), keeping cattle is of high importance for households in Mashare. For reasons related to social status, risk aversion in case of droughts and ensuring contribution duties in traditional feasts, households generally aim at owning the biggest possible herds (Domptail 2011). To be more specific, cattle ownership serves as an indicator of wealth and pseudo-bank account (Matanyaire 1997, Pröpper 2009). Traditionally, few animals are slaughtered for commercial sale (MAWRD 2010). With only 42% of households in Mashare stating to have sold cattle during the pre- ceding year, the study site lies even below the national mean of 53 % (MAWRD 2003). The livelihood analysis also reveals that only a minority of households benefits directly from the ORB’s economic transition: 78% of households rely mainly on the traditional livelihood sources mentioned above; for them, the only cash-based livelihood sources are pensions, remittances and governmental disaster relief. A few very poor households (12 %) depend exclusively on a very small cash income (often from old-age pension) and conduct no agriculture at all. Wage labour is mainly limited to casual agricultural labour. Only a few households (36%) receive a regular yet low salary from formal employment, e.g. in the military or in a local bar. Other households run businesses of their own, e.g. the mentioned bars or small local shops (14%).

Any livelihood strategies in the study site may rely on subsistence production. Nevertheless, Mashare cannot be characterized as a society that is based solely on subsistence production for its survival, because the role of government pensions (derived by 46 % of households) and drought relief (29 % of households) is too important for livelihoods. In fact, these external interventions and service flows may very well have started to disrupt or even have stopped processes that would be expected in true agrarian societies – including Boserupian intensification of agriculture. The following farming system analysis will take this development into account.

In summary, Mashare is characterized by a few wealthy and a majority of poorer households. Its social stratification is relatively advanced. As will be shown in the farming system analysis, ox-ownership and access to cash are not only important indicators of wealth; they also determine the farming strategies available to a household. Thus, for the following analysis, households have been clustered into the categories wealthier ox-owning- and poorer

non-ox-owning households (see chapter 1.5). Their descriptive statistics are given in Tab.

1.17. The farming system analysis will emphasize the differences in farming practices between both categories.

Source: Author’s design based on empirical data. Note: The fact that the poorer cluster has higher expenditures than cash income may be explained by high data variability or un-assessed cash income sources.

Tab. 1.17: Characteristics of typical farm-household categories in Mashare, Namibia. Wealthy

Cluster

Poorer Cluster

Household size (Nr. of persons per HH) 7 (SD: 3.9) 6 (SD: 3.1)

Number of Producers (aged: 16 - 59) 3.1 (SD: 2.1) 2.7 (SD: 1.9)

Share of Producers on HH size 0.48 0.46

Gender of HH head ( % of female HHs) 30 50

Average age of HH head 52 55

% of HH heads who finished sec. school or higher 11 9.5

% of HH heads who finished primary school 26 29

Sample size 99 156

Livestock ownership:

Goats (average herd size of HHs) 9.6 2.0

Cattle (average herd size) 16 0.4

Cattle (quartile) 25 2 0

50 11 0

75 20 0

100 200 19

Ox-ownership (% of HHs owning the asset) 98 0

Use of Inputs (% of HHs using this at least sometimes):

Fertilizer 3 0.6

Pesticides 1 0

Improved seeds 55 32

Manure 5 0.6

Mean annual cash-income (in US-$/HH/a)

from Salary 1007 314

from Own Business 216 58

from Remittances 503 16

from Pensions 263 205

Mean annual cash income (US-$/HH/a) 1846 721

Mean annual cash expenditures (US-$/HH/a) 1621 883

Quartiles of annual cash income: 25 505 121

50 868 535

75 1904 920

Land tenure in Mashare

All land in Namibias part of the basin is designated as non-private communal land (Falk 2008, Pröpper 2009). Although land ownership is vested in the state, it is of restricted form and the state administers the land in trust for the benefit of the local traditional communities (Falk 2008). Namibia is characterized by the co-existence of statutory and both local and regional traditional authority.

What is important for the purpose of this study is that the permanent allocation of land to smallholders is granted by consent of local and regional authorities (Pröpper 2009). This provides smallholders with exclusive use rights to their land as long as it is cultivated (Low & Kamwi 1998). They can decide to leave the field in fallow for up to five years without forfeiting their use rights (MAWRD 1997) and even longer if this is agreed upon with the traditional authorities. According to El Obeid & Mendelsohn (2001), about 79% of all households in the Kavangos own fields, while 12% have to use fields which belong to other people. The rest of the households might not be involved in crop production at all (In Mashare, e.g., 12% of households is not involved in agriculture). Non-allocated communal land can be used by the community under open access conditions for activities such as grazing, fuelwood or thatching-grass collection (Low & Kamwi 1998). These lands lie within village boundaries, which commonly rest on oral agreements only – therefore they are a frequent matter of debate (Pröpper 2009).

1.6.2.2 Results of the farming system analysis in Mashare