Overview and summary of part I: farming system analysis

In the following chapters, I will present the first part of this dissertation – the farming system analysis. This analysis constitutes a first, descriptive step that sets the stage for the quantitative modelling exercise. It lies at the heart of this dissertation. By identifying the processes that shaped and are still shaping the evolution of the farming systems in the individual study sites, the analysis goes beyond presenting a snapshot of the current state. The conclusions generated offer an in-depth understanding of the constraints to farming in the research area and about likely trajectories of future development. The farming system analysis is based on empirical observations from the study sites which are evaluated via an analytical framework and literature review. The results of this analysis will determine the structure and validity of the bio-economic model (presented in the part II of this dissertation) and provide insights on the most likely future development in the study sites.

The farming system analysis will be carried out for each of the three study sites, i.e. Cusseque in Angola, Mashare in Namibia and Seronga in Botswana. The main goals are i) to classify the respective farming systems in light of a globally valid reference frame, ii) to identify central mechanisms and drivers of change that determine the functioning of these farming systems and iii) to then deduct their most likely future development pathways.

To be able to do so, the dissertation applies the Boserup (1965)-Ruthenberg (1971) framework, which is a theoretical framework for the analysis of smallholder farming systems that is valid for all of Earth’s tropical and subtropical areas. By following this framework, this dissertation applies both a methodology for capturing the society-level (presented in chapter 1.2) as well as for capturing the farm-household level (including typical challenges to farming at the various societal stages, presented in chapter 1.3).

Chapter 1.4 will complement this theoretical framework with a review of drivers of land use change that currently affect smallholder farming in Sub-Saharan Africa. This will on the one hand improve the predictions on the likely development trajectories of the three study sites and on the other hand be used to proof the historical validity of the framework’s underlying assumptions.

Together, both the theoretical framework and the analysis of dominant trends of land use change in Sub-Saharan Africa will form the basis for interpreting the field-observations made in the study sites (data gathering and analysis are presented in chapter 1.5). The results of the three farming system analyses will be presented in chapters 1.6.1 – 1.6.3. They are followed by the analysis of the experimental conservation agriculture approach in study site Mashare (chapter 1.6.4). Chapter 1.6.5 discusses the findings and draws conclusions for the bio- economic model presented in part II of this dissertation, which aims at the optimization of farming strategies of typical household categories from the mid- and downriver areas of the ORB (i.e. study sites Mashare and Seronga).

Important results of this dissertation are summarized below:

• The theoretical framework is well suited to explain observations made at both the societal level as well as at the farm-household level. The study sites represent archetypical farming systems that can in similar forms be encountered worldwide in all tropical and sub-tropical agrarian societies.

• All study sites are or will be affected by two main drivers of land use change, i.e. decreasing land availability and increasing market access. Each study site is furthermore affected by site-specific drivers of change and constraints.

• It is unlikely that the rural communities living in the study sites will on their own and in time adapt to the changes caused by these drivers of change. Instead, it is more likely that smallholders in all study sites will be increasingly affected by processes of household impoverishment and natural resource degradation – although the pace of these processes and intervention possibilities differ strongly between the sites.

• In the lower part of the basin, the main constraints to farming are i) seasonality of labour-demand as well as ii) soil fertility and its management. Both will be central mechanisms in the bio-economic model described in part II of this dissertation. • Modelling results indicate that conservation agriculture can play an important role

for the sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture in the lower part of the basin (study sites Mashare and Seronga in the Kalahari part of the basin). The likelihood of its adoption rises when the above-mentioned constraints to farming become more binding. Access to cash to purchase inputs is a main constraint for the adoption of conservation agriculture by poorer households.

• Policy intervention is needed to promote improved farming practices; one possible approach towards sustainable intensification in Mashare and Seronga lies in the combination of input-based traditional farming practices with conservation agriculture.

There are various reasons for why this dissertation places importance on understanding the dynamics of smallholder farming systems and related societal change: First, the analysis will reveal that smallholder agriculture will remain the backbone of rural livelihoods in the study sites for at least the next years or decades. It is therefore a valid assumption that challenges of smallholder agriculture will continue to affect a majority of households in the research area. Second, smallholder agriculture is not something static, but undergoing a constant adaptation process to changing frame conditions (Ruthenberg 1971). Therefore, going beyond an analysis of a system’s current state greatly increases the likelihood of capturing all relevant trends and drivers of change of the respective farming systems. And lastly, despite official pledges for the support of rural communities, all three national governments of the Okavango’s riparian countries appear to favour projects that either aim at large-scale industrial agriculture or at conservation (Tello 2015). Instead of actually supporting smallholders, they thus tend to impose restrictions on traditional subsistence activities (ibid.). The following analysis will illustrate that smallholder agriculture in the research area will not remain in its current state, but is likely to be affected by degradation dynamics. Therefore, there are dangers inherent in neglecting the smallholder sector in land use policy planning and it is unwise to postpone pro-smallholder policies to a later point in time.