By incorporating recent theoretical literature and considering the current NBA labor environment, this study predicted that there would be evidence of little, if any, escalation of commitment. Furthermore, it sought to improve the data sample by limiting it to observations where draft position was predictably related to salary, i.e. “commitment.” Rejecting the suitability of an event history analysis, this study employed a logistic model designed to offer insight not provided by the previous studies. The study predicted that while draft pick may lead to increased playing time, escalation would not exist if draft positiondid not affect teams’ decisions to retain their young players. If this hypothesis proved correct, escalation of commitment would be rejected.
In this study cumulative performance measures and additional controls not only provided more predictive power of playing time and retainment but also reduced pick’s effects. However, a coach or GM change did not lead to less escalation and thus there was no evidence of
reputational concerns. In fact, on many occurrences there was evidence that an executive change positively affected a player’s odds of survival and playing time. In accordance with expectations, when the sample was limited to the first round, pick lost much of its predictive value which suggests that team behavior is similar among first round players. In the multivariate model there was a significant effect only in Year 2 and only at the 5% level. Furthermore, the logistic model provided no direct relationship between pick and probability of retainment. However, under the 1999 CBA guaranteed money increased not only the likelihood of retainment during the
guaranteed years but also increased the likelihood of offering a team option in Year 4. Under the 2005 CBA no such effects were found.
28
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31
Appendix A
1. The Player Efficiency Rating is calculated as follows:
( ) [ () ( ) ( ( ( ( )) () ( ))) ( ) (( ) ( ) )] ( ) ( ) ( ) MP=minutes played FGA=field goal attempts FG=field goals made 3P=three point FG made AST=assists FT=free throws made TOV=turnovers DRB%=defensive rebounding percentage STL=steals BLK=blocks ORB=offensive rebound The unadjusted PER (uPER) is then standardized to the league pace and the league average: [ ]
35 2. The Win Shares metric is calculated as follows:
Marginal offense is computed:
Then, the marginal points per win (MPW) is calculated:
( )
Then Win Shares is computed as follows,
36
Appendix B 1.
Table 1a: Variable definitions
Variable Description
Minutes per Game Minutes played per game
Retained by Draft Team If a player is retained by his drafted team for the entirety of the year then the variable is equal to 1, and equal to 0 if not.
Scoring Toughness Quickness PER Win Shares Pick
Standardized performance index consisting of points per minute, field-goal percentage and free-throw percentage
Standardized performance index consisting of rebounds per minute and blocks per minute
Standardized performance index consisting of assists per minute and steals per minute
Player Efficiency Rating Win Shares per 48 minutes
Player’s draft position expressed as the draft number.
Round Dummy variable equal to 1 if drafted in the first round and equal to 0 if drafted in the second round.
Belief Average of the third-party draft projections of www.nbadraft.net and ESPN draft analyst Chad Ford, both reputable experts in player evaluation.
Injury Dummy variable equal to 1 if a player missed more than 10 games during the season and equal to 0 if not.
Trade Dummy variable equal to 1 if traded or cut before or during the season and equal to 0 if not.
Position Dummy variable equal to 1 if a player is a Power Forward or Center and equal to 0 if not.
Team Success Team winning percentage, inputted as a decimal. Team Offense Points produced per 100 possessions
37
2.
Table 2a: Descriptive statistics
Variable Observations Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Pick 587 29.8620 16.9780 1.0000 60.0000
Belief 587 32.2010 19.5459 1.0000 61.0000
Round 587 0.4974 0.5004 0.0000 1.0000
Position 587 0.2675 0.4430 0.0000 1.0000
Year 1
Minutes per game 430 11.0642 9.8209 0.0366 38.0732 Scoring 430 0.0000 1.0000 -3.4842 3.4894 Toughness 430 0.0000 1.0000 -2.1940 2.9082 Quickness 430 0.0000 1.0000 -1.6132 3.5699 PER 430 10.9823 4.9157 -20.4000 26.0000 Win Shares 430 0.0384 0.0827 -0.3710 0.3450 Trade 430 0.0256 0.1579 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 430 0.3066 0.4615 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 430 0.4613 0.1508 0.1585 0.8171 Team Offense 430 104.6550 3.7886 92.2000 113.9000 Team Defense 430 105.8470 3.4781 95.4000 114.7000 Reputation 430 0.1329 0.3397 0.0000 1.0000 Year 2
Minutes per game 408 14.9629 11.0349 0.0122 41.3171 Retained by Draft team 408 0.7428 0.4375 0.0000 1.0000 Scoring 408 0.0000 1.0000 -4.6811 6.3793 Toughness 408 0.0000 1.0000 -2.2448 2.7208 Quickness 408 0.0000 1.0000 -1.6694 5.1444 PER 408 12.2909 6.5227 -48.6000 53.0000 Win Shares 408 0.0645 0.1214 -1.2640 0.7100 Trade 408 0.2641 0.4412 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 408 0.2470 0.4316 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 408 0.4705 0.1413 0.1463 0.8049 Team Offense 408 105.1951 3.6933 92.2000 115.3000 Team Defense 408 106.1066 3.5041 95.4000 114.7000 Reputation 408 0.3407 0.4744 0.0000 1.0000 Year 3
Minutes per game 378 17.0086 11.6729 0.1098 40.9878 Retained by Draft team 378 0.5281 0.4996 0.0000 1.0000 Scoring 378 0.0000 1.0000 -4.7772 3.4567 Toughness 378 0.0000 1.0000 -2.1236 3.9197 Quickness 378 0.0000 1.0000 -1.6943 4.6050
PER 378 13.2471 5.4148 -9.0000 35.3000
38 Table 2a (continued): Descriptive statistics
Variable Observations Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Trade 378 0.4770 0.4999 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 378 0.2351 0.4244 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 378 0.4818 0.1439 0.1463 0.8171 Team Offense 378 105.7622 3.5727 92.2000 115.3000 Team Defense 378 106.2654 3.5609 94.1000 114.4000 Reputation 378 0.4634 0.4991 0.0000 1.0000 Year 4
Minutes per game 327 18.8302 10.5495 0.0366 41.1342 Retained by Draft team 327 0.4055 0.4914 0.0000 1.0000 Scoring 327 0.0000 1.0000 -5.2204 2.3003 Toughness 327 0.0000 1.0000 -2.1655 3.8521 Quickness 327 0.0000 1.0000 -1.6162 4.1431 PER 327 14.1844 5.9642 -54.4000 33.3000 Win Shares 327 0.0886 0.0991 -1.3120 0.2950 Trade 327 0.5963 0.4911 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 327 0.1925 0.3946 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 327 0.4894 0.1418 0.1061 0.8171 Team Offense 327 105.9805 3.4517 95.2000 114.5000 Team Defense 327 106.3539 3.3660 94.1000 114.7000 Reputation 327 0.4600 0.4988 0.0000 1.0000 Year 5
Minutes per game 299 20.0106 11.0884 0.0488 41.2683 Retained by Draft team 299 0.3322 0.4714 0.0000 1.0000 Scoring 299 0.0000 1.0000 -4.8258 4.1788 Toughness 299 0.0000 1.0000 -2.0699 3.1860 Quickness 299 0.0000 1.0000 -1.7246 4.1299 PER 299 14.9268 4.5551 3.7000 35.2000 Win Shares 299 0.1031 0.0622 -0.0860 0.4840 Trade 299 0.6678 0.4714 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 299 0.1465 0.3539 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 299 0.5058 0.1463 0.1585 0.8049 Team Offense 299 106.4754 3.3931 99.0000 115.3000 Team Defense 299 106.2148 3.5835 94.1000 114.7000 Reputation 299 0.5860 0.4930 0.0000 1.0000 Year 6
Minutes per game 249 20.5452 10.0556 0.0610 39.3537 Retained by Draft team 249 0.2828 0.4507 0.0000 1.0000 Scoring 249 0.0000 1.0000 -3.4585 2.5814 Toughness 249 0.0000 1.0000 -2.2255 3.0159 Quickness 249 0.0000 1.0000 -1.5703 4.5486
39 Table 2a (continued): Descriptive statistics
Variable Observations Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
PER 249 14.5438 4.9018 -4.8000 33.0000 Win Shares 249 0.0956 0.0643 -0.1790 0.3180 Trade 249 0.7019 0.4578 0.0000 1.0000 Injury 249 0.1431 0.3505 0.0000 1.0000 Team Success 249 0.4876 0.1497 0.1061 0.8171 Team Offense 249 106.4357 3.2563 95.2000 114.5000 Team Defense 249 106.9176 3.2529 98.2000 114.4000 Reputation 249 0.6099 0.4882 0.0000 1.0000