5 Idea Generation
5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix 5.6 Morphological Analysis
5.7 Quadrant Crunching
CHAPTER
5
Idea Generation
N
ew ideas, and the combination of old ideas in new ways, are essential elements of effective intelligence analysis. Some structured techniques are specifically intended for the purpose of eliciting or generating ideas at the very early stage of a project, and they are the topic of this chapter.“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For while knowledge defines all we currently know and understand, imagination points to all we might yet discover and create.”
—Albert Einstein
In one sense, all structured analytic techniques are idea-generation techniques when they are used in a collaborative group process. A group or team using a structured analytic technique is usually more effective than a single individual in generating new ideas and in synthesizing divergent ideas. The structured process helps identify differences in
perspective and different assumptions among team or group members, and thus stimulates learning and new ideas.
Overview of Techniques
Structured Brainstorming is not a group of colleagues just sitting around talking about a problem. Rather, it is a group process that follows specific rules and procedures. It is often used at the beginning of a project to identify a list of relevant variables, driving forces, a full range of hypotheses, key players or stakeholders, available evidence or sources of information, potential solutions to a problem, potential outcomes or scenarios, or, in law enforcement, potential suspects or avenues of investigation. It requires little training, and is
one of the most frequently used structured techniques in the Intelligence Community. It is most helpful when paired with a mechanism such as a wiki that allows analysts to capture and record the results of their brainstorming. The wiki also allows participants to refine or make additions to the brainstorming results even after the face-to-face session has ended.
Virtual Brainstorming is a way to use Structured Brainstorming when participants are in different geographic locations. The absence of face-to-face contact has disadvantages, but it also has
advantages. The remote process can help relieve some of the pressure analysts may feel from bosses or peers in a face-to-face format. It can also increase productivity, because participants can make their inputs on a wiki at their convenience without having to read others’ ideas quickly while thinking about their own ideas and waiting for their turn to speak. The wiki format—including the ability to upload documents and even hand-drawn graphics or photos—allows analysts to capture and track brainstorming ideas and return to them at a later date.
Nominal Group Technique, often abbreviated NGT, serves much the same function as Structured Brainstorming, but it uses a quite different approach. It is the preferred technique when there is a concern that a senior member or outspoken member of the group may dominate the meeting, that junior members may be reluctant to speak up, or that the meeting may lead to heated debate. Nominal Group Technique encourages equal participation by requiring participants to present ideas one at a time in round-robin fashion until all participants feel that they have run out of ideas.
Starbursting is a form of brainstorming that focuses on generating questions rather than answers. To help in defining the parameters of a research project, use Starbursting to identify the questions that need to be answered. Questions start with the words Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How.
Brainstorm each of these words, one at a time, to generate as many questions as possible about the research topic.
Cross-Impact Matrix is a technique that can be used after any form of brainstorming session that identifies a list of variables relevant to a particular analytic project. The results of the brainstorming session are put into a matrix, which is used to guide a group discussion that systematically examines how each variable influences all other variables to which it is judged to be related in a particular problem context. The group discussion is often a valuable learning experience that provides a
foundation for further collaboration. Results of cross-impact discussions can be maintained in a wiki for continuing reference.
Morphological Analysis is useful for dealing with complex, nonquantifiable problems for which little data are available and the chances for surprise are significant. It is a generic method for
systematically identifying and considering all possible relationships in a multidimensional, highly complex, usually nonquantifiable problem space. It helps prevent surprises in intelligence analysis by generating a large number of outcomes for any complex situation, thus reducing the chance that events will play out in a way that the analyst has not previously imagined and has not at least considered.
Training and practice are required before this method is used, and a facilitator experienced in Morphological Analysis may be necessary.
Quadrant Crunching is an application of Morphological Analysis that uses key assumptions and their opposites as a starting point for systematically generating a large number of alternative outcomes. For example, an analyst might use Quadrant Crunching to identify the many different ways that a terrorist might attack a water supply. The technique forces analysts to rethink an issue from a broad range of perspectives and systematically question all the assumptions that underlie their lead hypothesis. It is most useful for ambiguous situations for which little information is available.