4 Decomposition and Visualization
4.10 PROCESS MAPS AND GANTT CHARTS
P
rocess Mapping is an umbrella term that covers a variety of procedures for identifying anddepicting visually each step in a complex procedure. It includes flow charts of various types (Activity Flow Charts, Commodity Flow Charts, Causal Flow Charts), Relationship Maps, and Value Stream Maps commonly used to assess and plan improvements for business and industrial processes. A Gantt
Chart is a specific type of Process Map that was developed to facilitate the planning, scheduling, and management of complex industrial projects.
When to Use It
Process Maps, including Gantt Charts, are used by intelligence analysts to track, understand, and monitor the progress of activities of intelligence interest being undertaken by a foreign government, a criminal or terrorist group, or any other nonstate actor. For example, a Process Map can be used to monitor progress in developing a new weapons system, preparations for a major military action, or the execution of any other major plan that involves a sequence of observable steps. It is often used to identify and describe the modus operandi of a criminal or terrorist group, including the preparatory steps that such a group typically takes prior to a major action. It has been used to describe and
monitor the process of radicalization by which a normal youth may be transformed over time into a terrorist.
Value Added
The process of constructing a Process Map or a Gantt Chart helps analysts think clearly about what someone else needs to do to complete a complex project. When a complex plan or process is
understood well enough to be diagrammed or charted, analysts can then answer questions such as the following: What are they doing? How far along are they? What do they still need to do? What
resources will they need to do it? How much time do we have before they have this capability? Is there any vulnerable point in this process where they can be stopped or slowed down?
The Process Map or Gantt Chart is a visual aid for communicating this information to the customer. If sufficient information can be obtained, the analyst’s understanding of the process will lead to a set of indicators that can be used to monitor the status of an ongoing plan or project.
The Method
There is a substantial difference in appearance between a Process Map and a Gantt Chart. In a
Process Map, the steps in the process are diagrammed sequentially with various symbols representing starting and end points, decisions, and actions connected with arrows. Diagrams can be created with readily available software such as Microsoft Visio.
A Gantt Chart is a matrix that lists tasks in a project or steps in a process down the far left column, with the estimated time period for accomplishing these tasks or steps in weeks, months, or years across the top row. For each task or step, a horizontal line or bar shows the beginning and
ending of the time period for that task or step. Professionals working with Gantt Charts use tools such as Microsoft Project to draw the chart. Gantt Charts can also be made with Microsoft Excel or by hand on graph paper.
Detailed guidance on creating a Process Map or Gantt Chart is readily available from the sources described under Origins of This Technique.
Example
The Intelligence Community has considerable experience monitoring terrorist groups. This example describes how an analyst would go about creating a Gantt Chart of a generic terrorist attack-planning process (see Figure 4.10). The analyst starts by making a list of all the tasks that terrorists must
complete, estimating the schedule for when each task will be started and finished, and determining
what resources are needed for each task. Some tasks need to be completed in a sequence, with each task being more-or-less completed before the next activity can begin. These are called sequential, or linear, activities. Other activities are not dependent upon completion of any other tasks. These may be done at any time before or after a particular stage is reached. These are called nondependent, or parallel, tasks.
Note whether each terrorist task to be performed is sequential or parallel. It is this sequencing of dependent and nondependent activities that is critical in determining how long any particular project or process will take. The more activities that can be worked in parallel, the greater the chances of a project being completed on time. The more tasks that must be done sequentially, the greater the chances of a single bottleneck delaying the entire project.
When entering tasks into the Gantt Chart, enter the sequential tasks first in the required sequence.
Ensure that they don’t start until the tasks they depend upon have been completed. Then enter the parallel tasks in an appropriate time frame toward the bottom of the matrix so that they do not interfere with the sequential tasks on the critical path to completion of the project.
Figure 4.10 Gantt Chart of Terrorist Attack Planning
Source: Based on Gantt Chart by Richard Damelio, The Basics of Process Mapping (Florence, Ky.: Productivity Press, 2006).
www.ganttchart.com.
Gantt Charts that map a generic process can also be used to track data about a more specific process as it is received. For example, the Gantt Chart depicted in Figure 4.10 can be used as a template over which new information about a specific group’s activities could be layered by using a different color or line type. Layering in the specific data allows an analyst to compare what is
expected with the actual data. The chart can then be used to identify and narrow gaps or anomalies in the data and even to identify and challenge assumptions about what is expected or what is happening.
The analytic significance of considering such possibilities can mean the difference between
anticipating an attack and wrongly assuming that a lack of activity means a lack of intent. The matrix illuminates the gap and prompts the analyst to consider various explanations.
Origin of This Technique
Development of Gantt Charts was considered a revolutionary advance in the early 1900s. During the period of industrial development, Gantt charts were used to plan industrial processes, and they are still in common use. Information on how to create and use Gantt Charts is readily available at www.ganttchart.com. Information on how to use other types of Process Mapping is available in Richard Damelio, The Basics of Process Mapping (Florence, Ky.: Productivity Press, 2006).
1. Atul Gawande, “The Checklist,” New Yorker, December 10, 2007,
www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/12/10/071210fa_fact_gawande. Also see Marshall Goldsmith, “Preparing Your Professional Checklist,” Business Week, January 15, 2008, www.businessweek.com/managing/content/jan2008/ca20080115_768325.htm?
campaign_id=rss_topStories.
2. “Association Analysis,” undated draft provided to the authors by Marilyn B. Peterson, Defense Intelligence Agency.
3. See www.mind-mapping.org for a comprehensive compendium of information on all types of software that supports knowledge management and information organization in graphic form. Many of these software products are available at no cost.
4. Tanja Keller, Sigmar-Olaf Tergan, and John Coffey, “Concept Maps Used as a ‘Knowledge and Information Awareness’ Tool for Supporting Collaborative Problem Solving in Distributed Groups,” Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Concept Mapping, San Jose, Costa Rica, September 5-8, 2006.
5. Tony Buzan, The Mind Map Book, 2nd ed. (London: BBC Books, 1995).
6. Joseph D. Novak and Alberto J. Canas, The Theory Underlying Concept Maps and How to Construct and Use Them, Technical Report IHMC Cmap Tools 2006–01 (Penascola: Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, 2006), http://cmap.ihmc.us/Publications/
ResearchPapers/TheoryUnderlying ConceptMaps.pdf.