Data Summarization and Processing Model

During the progress of elaborating the forecasting models, it was established that all of the necessary data cannot be obtained directly and the obtained data must be processed. The publicly available information was summarized and processed according to the research requirements.

Mainly used in the forecasting models was the information provided by CSP. Detailed information was received from CSP, which was obtained through the CSP Profession survey. The received data was processed to prepare it in a form necessary for the forecasting models. Data processing was necessary to preclude influence of changes of methodological character to the dynamic rows. For instance, during the time frame from year 1997 until year 2003, in reports of official statistics of Latvia, the number of employees in an enterprise was divided into those working in principal work and those working in additional work, which in total formed the number of the filled positions. In order to adapt to the requirements of European Union statistical systems, beginning with year 2004, the registration procedure of the number of employees was changed. In the reports, divided were those working full time and those working part time jobs, which in total formed the number of filled positions. Thus, the changes in the registration procedures did not affect the ratios about the number of filled positions and the dynamics rows could be continued.

However, beginning with year 2004, the dynamics row of ratios about the number of employees at principal work had to be terminated. In order to preclude that and to be able to continue the dynamics row, a method was elaborated for calculation of the number of employees working at principal work.

During the course of model elaboration, the list of the necessary professions was altered. Within framework of the research, a new profession grouping was elaborated – 37 profession groups, which were accepted.

The necessary input information from CSP received data for elaboration of the models was as follows: the number of the filled employment positions; the number of the employed with payroll (at principal work); the number of the employed at additional work according to the type of economic activity and 37 profession groups, and according to average salary in 37 profession groups combined in all types of economic activity.

Three tasks were executed for preparing the data array in a proper form for the forecasting models:

• The data array received from CSP was recalculated in section of 37 profession groups;

• The ratio was calculated about the number of the employed at principal work in year 2004 and 2005;

• The average salary was calculated in a section of 37 profession groups.

The data array received from CSP was recalculated in a section of 37 profession groups Firstly, data about years 1997, 1998, ..., 2005 were selected from the data array received from CSP (MS Access format) and within framework of each year – according to the types of economic activity.

Secondly, the data selected from MS Access format were transformed into MS Excel format. In this data array, the individual and aggregated profession groups were indicated.

Thirdly, the data array was cleared of the aggregated profession groups. All further calculations were performed with the data array of all professions. It was performed due to the fact that in case if new profession grouping would be formed, repeated calculations would not be necessary.

Fourthly, the data array is transformed into MS Access format to prepare the data array in section of the demanded 37 profession groups.

Fifthly, the data array has been transformed in a MS Excel format.

The ratio about the number of the employed at a principal work place in year 2004 and 2005 was calculated

In framework of all professions in year 2004 and 2005, the ratio was calculated about the number of employees working at principal work place according to the method elaborated during the research “Detailed research of labor force and labor market in economic sectors”. The number of the employees working at principal work place in year 2004 and 2005 was calculated as follows: N N K advj pdj pdj = where:

Kpdj – the quotient of the number of the employed at principal work against the number

of the filled positions in j-th profession in year 2003;

Npdj– the number of the employed in j-th profession in year 2003 according to the CSP

K K N

Npdlj = apdlj× pdj× pdvk,

where:

Npdlj – the number of the employed at principal work in j-th profession in year 2004 or

2005;

Napvlj – the number of the filled employment positions in year 2004 or 2005;

Kpdvk– the quotient establishing the number of employees working at principal work

place against the proportion of the number of filled positions in the country in total at the end of year 2004 or 2005 against a similar quotient at the end of year 2003.

Quotient Kpdvk in year 2004 was 0,988 (0,878:0,889), however in year 2005 0,982

(0,873:0,889).

The average salary in 37 profession group section was calculated

Firstly, from the data array a ratio calculated within framework of all professions – gross salary, by multiplying the average gross monthly salary with the number of the filled positions.

Secondly, the data array is transformed into MS Access format to prepare data array in a section of 37 profession groups.

Thirdly, the prepared data array is transformed into MS Excel format.

Fourthly, the average salary is calculated, by dividing the gross salary with the number of the filled employment positions.

Analysis has been performed in further research process according to the 37 profession grouping.

Analysis of the dynamics ratios – the number of the filled positions, the number of the employed working at principal work, the number of the employed working at additional work in 37 profession groups – was performed by calculating the growth rate by % against the previous year. In order to acquire a concept about the changes during a time period, average growth rate was calculated according to the time period, for which data was received in 37 profession groups (several profession groups did not have data about all years).

The DŅA data array was recalculated in a 37 profession grouping. The data necessary for the forecasting models had to be at first prepared, by using the computer program SPSS and then the results of the calculations were formatted in MS Excel format.

A part of the DDA data array was received encoded in such format that direct aggregation into 37 profession groups could not be performed. Therefore, an algorithm was at first elaborated in order to transform the data array for further work in suitable format. It was performed by using the MS Access computer program. As a result of the transformation, data array was obtained in section of all professions. Only after that it was feasible to perform data

aggregation in order to group them into sections of 37 profession groups; MS Access computer program was used. During the final data array preparation phase, the data were transformed into the MS Excel format, which was necessary for the model elaborators.

Through calculations a ration was supposed to be obtained about the number of the employed in 37 profession groups and in one-year age groups, as well as about the number of the employed in industries and in one-year age groups. Information in the above mentioned form is not available. Therefore, it was sought to obtain it through calculations. The calculations were based on information, which was received from CSP about the number of the employed in sections of professions and according to the economic activity types during the time frame from year 1997 until year 2005, for the ratios of Labor force survey about the number of the employed from year 1997 until year 2005, and about the DŅA data about the structure of the number of the employed, % in 37 profession groups and one-year age groups, and about the structure of the number of the employed according to the type of economic activity and in one-year age groups. It must be noted that the acquired results are to be assessed with caution when designated as evaluations.

Figure 4. Number of the employed in 37 profession groups and in one-year age groups

The calculated indices in section of 37 profession groups in one-year age groups were calculated, based on data of CSP Labor force survey about the number of the employed, using the data of DŅA and CSP Profession surveys as the structural indices (see Figure 4).

Figure 5. Number of the employed in industries and in one-year age groups

The calculated ratios according to the types of economic activity in one-year age groups were calculated, based on data of the Labor Force Survey about the number of the employed, using the data of DŅA and CSP Profession Survey as the structural indices (see Figure 5).

Therefore the calculated ratios in one-year age groups are to be considered as approximate values. Hereinafter these detailed rations are scheduled to be received from the CSP Labor Force Survey.