4. Research Results
4.8. IT Solution Requirements
The goal of IT solution is creation of such information system, which would be available and conveniently usable for application of mathematical model for labor market supply and demand comparison, forecasting, and optimization in decision making and planning.
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RESEARCH
INSTITUTE
CONSULTATIVE
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INVOLVED STATE
ADMINISTRATION
INSTITUTIONS
SOCIETY
Within framework of the research “Research of labor market long-term forecasting system and analysis of improvement opportunities”, definition of IT solution requirements was performed, the result of which is a description of system requirements. The goal of it is to provide with a concept to the system users and potential elaborators about the functionality of the system, technical architecture, performance, and user management.
Table 12. Measures for implementing the IT solution for labor force forecasting
Labor force forecasting components created as a result of the research
Labor force forecasting components, which are yet to be
elaborated/implemented in state administration
• Operating prototype of the system, • Forecasts in test mode and with real data, • Tested forecasting models,
• Description of optimum IT solution, • Specification of IT system
requirements.
• Administrative provision, • Technical provision,
• Purchase of standard software,
• IT system according to specification of requirements.
The achievements of the research and additionally necessary measures for implementation of labor force forecasting IT solution are compared in Table 12.
An option to acquire actual labor force forecasts in test mode is possible with the technological solutions used during the researches. During the research, an operating system prototype was created, which provides with an option to test the forecasting models. Programming operations were performed and technical support was provided for ensuring the model functionality and adaptation to work in actual exploitation environment. According to the functional, data, and institutional solution requirements, also a description of roles and access rights, description of interface with other information systems, as well as the scheduled technical architecture and performance requirements were prepared.
3 alternatives of IT solution were considered – various technological solutions, wherein functionality is ensured, starting from the minimum necessary for performance of forecasting work to such that would ensure the broadest opportunities for data processing, analysis, and effective work. For evaluation of IT solution alternatives, an indicative cost calculation for system elaboration, purchase of software and technologies, and annual maintenance was prepared. For further analysis and elaboration of specification of requirements, the optimum alternative was selected - a solution, which ensured the broadest functionality and wherein the existing solutions of available standard software could be used the most effectively. The
Powersim Studio software was used during the course of the research, as well as it ensures
additional options, which in accordance to the descriptions conform to the system creation requirements (Powersim Software, Products, 2006).
Included in the list of the requirements are: general description of the system, requirements from the functional and user viewpoint, list of entry data, which are necessary for forecasting, requirements (coordinated with legislation regulating the corresponding sphere and with interests of the involved state institutions), description of the institutional IT solutions (for data entry, storage, analyzing, and preparation of reports), proposals for methodology of elaboration and implementation of the IT solution, and for distribution of functions in phases and for the managerial structure of the project.
Detailed system specification was elaborated, which includes system data model, system function description, description of roles and access rights, description of interface with other software, requirements of performance and technical architecture.
In cost assessment, the main expense positions are distinguished: costs of elaboration works, purchase of software, purchase of technical equipment provision, and annual maintenance of the system. Specifications of IT system requirements will be possible to use as an annex to the tender regulations, if a decision is made to elaborate the labor market forecasting system.
Logical architecture of the system
The system consists of entry data sub-system (ensures maintenance and updating of information necessary for the system operations), calculation sub-system (ensures maintenance and updating of the mathematical model necessary for forecasting), analytical sub-system (ensures setting of forecasting parameters and obtainment of results in form of tables, diagrams, and charts), and administering sub-system (ensures user maintenance, definition of access rights and other administrative functions of the information system). (See Figure 16).
Institutional solution
When working with definition of requirements of IT solution of the labor market forecasting, it was important that currently there is no established process (document flow, institutional cooperation model and decision making mechanism), which could be automated. The institutional description of IT solution is formed through modeling of this process with cooperation of the project researchers with the representatives of the state institutions. Considered was the alternating situation, therefore one of the conditions elaborated into the system requirements was its flexibility, adjustment properties, and extendibility. The requirements of the potential users were considered in the general description of IT system, by specifying the data to be stored and analyzed, as well as the reports to be created in the system. The requirements formulated in the institutional solution description would ensure functioning of forecasting models, as well as requirements of the institutions in respect to usage convenience and work process (See Figure 17).
Figure 17. General scheme of the institutional solution
The end users, in compliance with their functions, will be ensured with access of various levels to system functionality: for updating or processing of input data, for preparation of analytical reviews, for performing analysis, for viewing analytical reviews; other institutions and the society must be ensured with public access to the forecasts, which are simply and clearly prepared and designed specifically for this purpose.
Terms and costs
The costs are described in division of projects phases and of sub-systems. Separately distinguished are the costs of software and technical provision and system maintenance costs. The calculations are based on evaluations of the researches on volume and complexity of the system to be elaborated, necessary qualifications of the attracted specialists, the number of the necessary man-hours, and current average man-hour rates in the industry. The costs are provided within limits that are established with the precision possible in the definition phase, however the actual costs depend on proposals provided by the potential elaborators. The costs of technical resources are to be evaluated in a broader range, because they are dependent on decisions on number of users in the system and a desire to use additional functions (for instance, perform also analysis of the existing situation in the forecasting system). The costs of the software are evaluated at a broader range than the costs of technical resources, because it is possible to select high-level licensed products as well as corresponding free code software programs. The maintenance costs included expenses for employing an administrator for maintaining the technical infrastructure (or selection of a corresponding external service provider) and the charge to the elaborator for maintenance of the system, as well as error correction, performance of necessary corrections and minor additions, which are calculated at 10-15% of the system elaboration costs (See Table 13).
Table 13. Costs of system elaboration
Sub-systems LVL (without VAT)
Input data sub-system 24020-26700
Calculation sub-system 30120-36080
Analytical sub-system 25260-28960
Administering sub-system 10760-11940
Total costs 90160-103680
Annual maintenance costs 13240-21960
The total number of man-hours in the project is planned to be from 635 to 730. In time mode – from the project initiation, when the tender documentation is being prepared, until an operating, implemented system one full year would be necessary.
The costs for the technical resources and standard software are calculated, based on the prices published during the research performance progress by the official distributors (Price sheets of computer technologies and standard software, 2006). The costs of the technical resources (database server, application server, backup copying devices): LVL 6000-16000 (without value added tax). The costs of software (database management, application server software and modeling software) are within limits of LVL 2500-30000 (without value added tax).
Functional requirements
All sub-systems must ensure user authentication, authorization, and access rights control. The documentation to be developed for each sub-system – user’s reference book.
Input data sub-system
The input data sub-system ensures maintenance and updating of the information necessary for model operation.
It is scheduled that the following user groups will be working with the input data sub-system: • Administering institution,
• Data providers.
The following functionality must be ensured for the input data sub-system:
Firstly, manual maintenance of the classifiers, by using the input forms (types of classifiers with manual input), list viewer, classifier value adding, correction, and deletion.
The necessary classifiers are as follows: • professions,
• profession groups (1-37),
• conformance of profession groups and professions, • industries (A-O..P),
• administrative units (regions), • education levels,
• education spheres,
• forecasting periods (years), • one-year age groups,
• five-year and ten-year age groups.
Secondly, manual maintenance of input data, by using the input forms (types of input data, which can be manually entered), list viewing, correction, and deletion, as well as ensuring integrity of the input data. By using the input forms, it is possible to manually input the following data:
• GDP in industries,
• Long-term investments in industries,
• Forecasts of number of inhabitants in one-year age groups, • Number of inhabitants at the end of year,
• Percentage of the economically active inhabitants in the age group, • Average monthly gross salary in industries,
• Average monthly gross salary in profession group,
• The distribution the employed in principle jobs in industries, • The employees, who have quit the profession, in profession groups, • Changes in employment in industries,
• Retired or laid off due to reduction of staff in profession groups, • Retired or laid off due to reduction of staff in industries,
• Students beginning studies in a particular profession group,
• Number of students in a particular education level, education sphere, • Students beginning studies in a particular profession group,
• Part of the graduates from those, who started studies (trained and examined) in industries, • Graduates working in the trained profession according to profession groups,
• Graduates working in the industry,
• Migration to other professions in profession groups, • Migration to other professions in industries,
• Percentage of the employed in profession groups,
• Number of the employed in profession groups and according to age, • Number of the employed in industries and according to age,
• Number of the employed in profession groups,
• Number of the employed and employment positions in industries and profession groups, • Pollution quotient, volume of emissions against GDP (tons/mill. LVL),
• Investment quotient (investments against GDP),
• Energy-intensity (energy consumption against GDP) (tons/mill. LVL), • Energy consumption for one inhabitant.
Thirdly, automatic input data import for data, which are available in corresponding format. These formats are MS Excel, MS Access, and SPSS files. As much as possible, all types of
input data parallel to manual maintenance, also automatic data receipt from the data provider (interface) must be ensured, if the data provider has such technical potentialities. The system must perform automatic processing, correction, and data integrity check.
Calculation sub-system
The calculation sub-system ensures maintenance and updating of the mathematical model necessary for the forecasting process.
For the calculation sub-system, it is necessary to ensure model maintenance and configuration (calculations, formulas, parameters, etc.), model updating, setting and modification of the configuration parameters, and version control.
The main function, which must be ensured for the calculation sub-system is model operation – receipt of input data and classifiers necessary for calculations from a centralized database, automatic input data processing, receipt of performance parameters from the analytical sub-system, automatic selection of the most suitable model, storage of calculation interim results and final results in a centralized database. The results of the calculation sub-system (forecasts, analytical reviews) must be delivered to analytical sub-system.
Analytical sub-system
The analytical sub-system ensures setting of the forecasting parameters and obtainment of the results in a form of tables, diagrams, and charts.
The analytical sub-system must be ensured with the following functionality:
Firstly, preparation of analytical reviews – list viewing of available analytical report types, selection of the necessary analytical report type, specification of parameters, delivery of the analytical report parameters to the calculation sub-system, receipt of the prepared analytical
report from the calculation sub-system, an option to store the prepared analytical report in the centralized database. The following analytical reports, which are to be acquired with the assistance of the system, are defined:
• Forecast of labor force demand in the country in general, • Forecast of labor force supply in the country in general, • Forecast of labor force demand in industries,
• The ensured labor force in industries,
• Forecast of labor force demand in profession groups, • Forecast of labor force supply in profession groups,
• Forecast of labor force demand in profession groups and industries.
Secondly, management of the stored analytical reports – list viewing, selection, viewing, and deletion of the necessary report (according to the determined access rights), comparison with other report, export, publishing on the Internet (allocating public access).
Thirdly, the operations with the stored reports – viewing thereof (in a form of tables, diagrams, and charts) and export (in MS Excel, PDF, and XML format). Storage of the
already created analytical reports and their parameters must be ensured as preparation for creation of new reports (for instance, recalculate a once defined report, when new input data are received).
Fourthly – public access to the Internet – viewing of publically available analytical reports.
Administering sub-system
The administering sub-system ensures user maintenance, definition of access rights, and other administrative functions of an information system.
The following functionality must be ensured for the administering sub-system: • User (administrator) authentication and authorization, control of access rights,
• User maintenance – list viewing, user addition, correction, deletion, blocking, and password change,
• Role maintenance – list viewing, role addition, correction, deletion, and establishing role access rights,
• Maintenance of user’s access rights – allocation and deprivation of user roles,
• Data auditing – recordkeeping of all changes made in the database (addition, correction, deletion), viewing and selection of this information,
• Events auditing – recordkeeping of operations performed by each user, viewing and selection of this information,
• Maintenance of system settings.
Data model
The result of the system analysis of the forecasting models is documented in the data model and data field description, in the description of functional requirements, as well as in the description of the system and the sub-system model. The data model describes the data structure for storage and processing of information system data, and the entity-relation modeling method is used for description thereof.
Conclusions
As a result of the research, the requirement description for the IT solution has been created, which is the main tool necessary for implementation of the labor market forecasting system into the state administration. The necessary standard software, technologies, and costs for elaboration, implementation, and maintenance of the IT solution have been described.