Some of the journals I kept from my earliest days show just what I was up against. On one page would be an entry like:
"Stratosphere, 2 hours, +$270," and then on another page I would write: "Binion's, watch out for Stephanie, lost big." I had no idea why I was writing down the information, but I had an instinct that I was supposed to be keeping track. It turned out that those notes were essentially worthless and I never transferred them to a more permanent record. When I finally decided the time had come to determine the worth of what I was doing for the long run I went for the basics: sim-plicity and accuracy.
Now when I go to a casino, I track the conditions for the particular game I played, the date, the total number of hours I played, how much I tipped, and my result for that session.
I also keep running totals of cumulative hours played, win-nings (or losses) and my over-all result expressed as an hourly wage.
Our hero Fred is learning to be a good gambler: Table 7 is an excerpt from his journal. In general, if you are not a card counter and intend to play for a long time at the same local casino, you will quickly get to know the dealers and pit managers. If you are more inclined to take weekend trips to various casinos, you may also want to include a column for comments. If you also vary your bets, you might decide to include a column for your bet spread, putting in values like
$5-$60 or $25-$100, whatever the case may be.
The bottom line is the cumulative $/hour. In this case, Fred played a total of 34 hours and won $417, for an hourly wage of $12.26 during this period. Fred also knows that he tips at a rate of $4 per hour, so that he actually made $4 x 34 hours = $136 more than he logged into his journal, but that money was given away as tips.
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You need to be absolutely diligent about making entries in your journal. Write them down as soon as you get home, even if it is 2 AM. Include everything. No matter how much you want to pretend the previous night's losses didn't happen, enter them correctly. You must know the truth about where you stand with the game, and the only path to this truth is your log. Remember to only show the log to your husband or wife when you are ahead at the moment, and keep it to your-self the rest of the time.1
One thing your journal should not be is a pile of trip reports. Many books recommend this approach and include forms that you can copy and fill out at the end of each trip.
The problem is that all these reports end up getting stuffed in a shoebox, or they get destroyed or lost, and very rarely will you sit down and figure out what all the reports mean for you (it is like doing your taxes only nobody cares). I recommend a streamlined version of a journal, in which you make an entry on a single line for each session. It is best to either buy a cheap accounting journal or design a spreadsheet, but do not mix and match. Stick to one format and be absolutely diligent and accurate in your record keeping.
Table 7. Excerpt from Fred's journal detailing his last trip to Las Vegas
1. I feel compelled to say: "just kidding," but there is content to this suggestion in some domestic situations.
Dear Diary...Losing Sucks
# Date Game Casino Hrs Result $/Hour Total 1 8/03/04 6D, DOA, DAS, S17 MGM 4 ($265) ($66.25) ($265) 2 8/04/04 1D, DOA, H17 LV Club 4 $670 $167.50 $405 3 8/04/04 1D, DOA, H17 4 Queens 5 ($110) ($22.00) $295 4 8/05/04 6D, DOA, DAS, H17 NYNY 5 ($11) ($2.20) $284 5 8/05/04 6D, DOA, DAS, H17 Mirage 5 ($175) ($35.00) $109 6 8/06/04 2D, DOA, DAS, H17 Caesars 4 $101 $25.25 $210 7 8/07/04 2D, DOA, DAS, H17 Caesars 3 $154 $51.33 $364 8 8/07/04 6D, DOA, DAS, S17 MGM 4 $53 $13.25 $417
Totals: 34 $12.26 $417
The milepost at which you can start considering your results as representing some sort of long-term description of the level of your play begins when you have completed 1,000 hours of play. If you are playing perfect basic strategy, you will see wild fluctuations in your running totals, but after 1,000 hours, which is about 100,000 hands, or 10 years in the blackjack zone, the results begin to become predictive. After about 10 years, you should see that you are losing at a rate of about $400 per year if you are flat betting $10 per hand and not tipping. If there is a small defect in your play, it may not show up after only 10,000 hands, but there is a good chance you will see it after 100,000.
You are now ready to begin playing for the long run, to permanently enter the blackjack zone. You know basic strat-egy for the game you are playing, and you are committed to maintaining your game at a high level. You will be impecca-bly honest in your record keeping, and will not be discour-aged by short-term fluctuations. All the pieces are in place, and you are ready to go into a casino and lose money (very gradually, I hope).
This chapter leaves you playing the same way every time you sit at the tables, while you carefully keep track of the out-come; a world without choice that soothes and nurtures you.
In theory, you have everything you need to live a long and happy life playing blackjack as a hobby. But the truth is that there is much more to it than basic strategy and journal keep-ing. So now we move on, and the choices will flood your life once again.
52 The Blackjack Zone