Recently I witnessed the incredible: a player stood with his A-3 against the dealer's 4, saying to the dealer, &#A-34;I can value the aces as 1 or 11, and I'm choosing 11." I can say with confi-dence that in the short run (notice, I am using the short run here), this will cost him a lot of money. In the blackjack zone standing loses $20,500, hitting earns $8,200, and doubling makes $6,700.
A few weeks ago a gaggle of college kids came in on two consecutive nights. I saw the same college kid doubling down on his hard 12 all night long, both nights. It didn't matter what the dealer was showing, he was going to double his 12.
"I'm here to gamble!" was his defense to all vain efforts to guide him. In the blackjack zone, doubling a 12 against a dealer T loses $79,600, whereas hitting loses $38,500.
Another sure loser.
Once a pit boss told me about a time he was playing blackjack and was "tracking cards" (whatever that means) and determined that he had to hit his T-8 against the dealer's T. He hit it and busted with a 5. But, as he explained to me, he saved the table when the dealer turned over a 6. The deal-er then dealt himself a T and busted. The world needs more martyrs, to be sure. In the blackjack zone, hitting the T-8 loses $64,400, whereas standing loses $17,500.
What is the single most costly single mistake in black-jack? How about doubling your T-T against a dealer 6? In the blackjack zone, standing wins $70,300, and doubling loses $170,500. That means that choosing to double rather than stand will cost you $24.80 for every $10 you bet.
These stories are at the extreme end of what one sees at the tables. Most of the time people play a decent but notice-ably imperfect game yielding the casino about a 2% edge.
This 2% is a net increase in the house edge by about 1.6%
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over the basic strategy player. I have no scientific evidence to back up the following survey of bad play, but the following list highlights the most frequent errors I see day in and day out, together with their cost to the player.
Most Frequent Errors in Blackjack Hard hands
This most common error in blackjack is standing on 12 against a dealer 2 or 3. This particular move is part of the gen-eral rule that one should never hit on a dealer bust card.
However, the net effect of this mistake is very small. For example in the blackjack zone, the player who always stands on 7-5 vs. dealer 3 will lose $24,600 and the player who always hits 7-5 vs. dealer 3 will lose $23,200. Notice how close these two numbers are, but it is the difference, which amounts to 14 cents per hand, that gradually pulls the player down.
The other night a woman sitting two seats to my left got angry with me for making the play (I pulled a T and busted -the dealer's bust card, as she argued), even though -the dealer busted with a 9. It is this fierce persistence in believing false information that really pays off for the casino. The public relations coup that yielded this false god is one of the great money makers of all time.
If you never stand on a total of 12-16 but instead mimic the dealer and take hits until you reach a total of 17 or more (or bust), then you are giving the house 3.2%. This makes it clear that proper standing on hard totals of 12 to16 forms a huge part of the game.
Soft hands
These hands are the most difficult part of the basic strat-egy to commit to memory. In addition, the rules for playing these hands change quite a bit between the various basic strategies for the different games.
Foremost among this class of errors is failing to take a hit with A-7 against a dealer 9 or T. In the blackjack zone, the
To Err is Human, But That’s No Excuse
player who always stands on A-7 vs. dealer 9 will lose $18,300 and the player who always takes a hit will lose $9,800. It is a losing situation no matter what, but minimizing losses is part of winning. Similarly, standing on A-7 vs. dealer T will lose
$18,000 whereas hitting will lose $14,300. If you never hit (or double) your soft 17 or soft 18, the net result is that you are giving 0.30% in overall expectation to the house. Another common error is to stand on A-6 against a dealer 7, hoping for a push or a dealer bust. In the blackjack zone, standing loses $10,400 and hitting wins $5,500, making this a very costly mistake.
Doubling
Doubling is a major component of basic strategy. You are putting more money on the table when you have the advantage over the dealer. Doubling errors alone can easily amount to giving back 1% (or more) to the casino.
It is not uncommon to see people double a 6-4 (or some other ten valued total) against a T. You probably don't make that play, but do you make every double you should? If you never double, you are giving a gift of 1.73% to the casino, for which the casino would say: "Thank you very much, care to play some more?" If you simply fail to make the correct soft doubles (do you double A-2 against a 5 and 6 like you should?) but make all other doubles correctly, then you are giving back only .14%. By these numbers, soft doubles are a fairly insignificant feature of play, but all the numbers add up to your final expectation, hence none should be neglected.
Failing to make any soft doubles is about the same as chang-ing the rule from S17 to H17. So, for example, in the black-jack zone, hitting A-2 vs. the dealer 6 will earn you $16,900 but doubling the same will earn you $23,000.
The common doubling errors with hard totals are dou-bling 9 against a dealer 7, 9 against a 2 (this is correct in some games), 8 against a dealer 2-6 (doubling 8 against a 5 or 6 is correct in some single deck games), and doubling 11 against
36 The Blackjack Zone
a dealer A (again, this is correct in some games). This last one (11 against A) is the most common doubling error, and it is interesting to examine one case of it, 6-5 vs. A, in the black-jack zone. In our standard game hitting wins $14,800 and doubling wins $13,000. In the downtown single deck game (DOA, H17, no DAS), hitting wins $14,100 and doubling wins $23,300. These numbers should make it clear that not knowing the correct basic strategy for the particular game you are playing will ultimately be very costly.
There are many other strange doubles I have seen (and more I can imagine). Among the remarkable doubles passing me by at the tables are doubling A-3 against T, doubling 4-3 against T and doubling 4-2 against 6. A quick estimate of such Rambo style double downs yields a house advantage of about 1.5%.
On the other end many people double reluctantly and for less. They will only double powerful hands like 7-4 against 6, and then with their $50 bet out, they nuzzle $20 next to it and announce "for less". You should always double for the full value of the bet, and double whenever you have the opportunity.
If for some anti-social reason you decide you want to double every hard total 12-16 and never double any other totals, you can say goodbye to over 6%.
Pair-splitting
Most players know that they should always split A's and 8's. This is not a rule of convenience, rather it is a rule based on maximizing your expectation. All of the reasons for mak-ing various plays in basic strategy are needed to understand splitting. For example, we have already seen that the reason for splitting 8-8 against the dealer T is to lose less. On the other hand, splitting A-A against a dealer 5 is with the inten-tion of winning more, and splitting 8-8 against a dealer 7 is there to turn a losing situation in to a winning one.
The most common errors in splitting come with 9-9 against dealer 2 through 9. Players are extremely reluctant to
To Err is Human, But That’s No Excuse
split up a hard total of 18, but it must be done (except in the case 9-9 vs. 7). For example, in the blackjack zone, standing 9-9 vs. 8 wins $9,900, but splitting wins $19,300.
The basic strategy rules for splitting vary quite a bit from game to game when you have 2-2, 3-3, or 4-4. For example, in single deck you should double 4-4 against the dealer 6, but when DAS is allowed you should always split 4-4 against 6.
On the other hand, the splitting rules stay consistent between the various games for 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, and 9-9.
In our standard game, you should always split 4-4 against 5 or 6. It is interesting to see what happens in the blackjack zone with the three possibilities (hitting, doubling, splitting) in the case 4-4 vs. 5. Hitting wins $8,400, doubling wins $2,800, and splitting wins $10,700. Doubling is a hor-rible move in the multi-deck game. Now let's consider the same situation, 4-4 against 5, in downtown Las Vegas at one of the single deck games (DOA, H17, no DAS). In this case hitting wins $15,300, doubling wins $16,100, and splitting wins $9,600. In downtown, splitting is the poorest choice, and doubling is the right move.
You must make sure you know the right splits for the game you play. If you decide splitting is only for earthquake faults and high-school romances, and you are never going to split at the blackjack tables, say goodbye to 0.46%.
38 The Blackjack Zone