DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR SPECIALIZED TRANSPORTATION FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY

This section reports on an estimating process to quantify the people this plan concerns, projected forward for future planning horizons. A further rationale for quantifying the specialized trips these individuals may need is proposed. SAFETEA-LU programs, Section 5316, 5317 and 5310 target persons of low income, including persons on welfare, persons with disabilities and seniors. Table A-1 identifies the numbers of these individuals in Los Angeles County from selected 2000 Census variables.

Table A-1

2000 Census Attribute, Summary File 3

People by Category [2000] % of Population Subgroup % of Total L.A. County Population

Los Angeles County Total Population [1] 9,519,338 100%

ADULTS 16-64 [2] 6,195,555 65%

Adults "go-outside-home" disability, ages 16-64 (non- insitutionalized) [4]

628,422 7%

Disabled adults as percentage of age 16-64 population 10%

Low-income (ages 18-64) (Below poverty level as defined by the Census Bureau) [3]

940,899 10%

Low-income adults as percentage of age 16-64 population 15%

SENIORS [2] 825,198 9% Seniors, ages 65-74 395,778 48% 4% Seniors, ages 75-84 323,839 39% 3% Seniors, ages 85+ 105,581 13% 1% 1% 11%

Seniors "go-outside-home" disability (non-institutionalized) [4] 2%

Disabled seniors as percentage of all seniors. 26%

TOTAL TARGET POPULATION RANGES

Low End: Adults with disabilities (16-64) and only seniors 75+ 1,057,842 11% Mid Range: Adults with disabilites (16-64) and all seniors 65+ 1,453,620 15% Hi End: Low income adults (16-64) and all seniors 65+ 1,766,097 19% [1] Census 2000 Summary File 3, Total Population.

[2] Extrapolated from Census 2000 Summary File 3, Sex by Age.

[3] Extrapolated from Census 2000 Summary File 3, Poverty Status in 1999 by age.

[4] Extrapolated from Census 2000 Summary File 3, Age by types of disability for the civilian non-institutionalized population 5 years & over with disabilities. The "go-outside-the-home" disability includes those who because of a physical, mental or emotional condition lasting 6 months or more, have difficulty going outside the home alone to shop or to medical appointments.

TARGET POPULATIONS for JARC, New Freedoms, and Section 5310 Programs

Low Income Seniors (Below poverty level as defined by the Census Bureau) [3]

93,555

Table A-1 considers the adult population only, persons age 16 and older. Certainly there are children in poverty and children with disabilities which could be involved in some of the initiatives this plan may eventually support. But for purposes of developing an estimate of demand for transportation, it is necessary to consider the individual likely to be traveling on his or her own and not the dependent child. For that reason, only the adult population is presented here.

Poverty Levels

For the 2000 Census, the Los Angeles County population was established as 9,519,338 persons. Of this total, 10 percent were identified as at or below the poverty levels as defined by the U.S. Census, or about 941,000 adults and representing 15 percent of the adult population group, age 16 to 64. Definitions of poverty by the U.S. Census are made on the basis of a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition. When a family’s income is less than the threshold for a family of that size and type, then that family and every individual in it is considered to be in poverty. These thresholds do not vary geographically.11

The Los Angeles proportion of 15 percent of persons at poverty levels is above the statewide mean of 13.3 percent and the same national mean of 13 percent for the United States as a whole. 12

Disability Characteristics

The second population group of interest is persons with disabilities. As characterized by 2000 Census and identified among the adult population, these individuals number 628,422 persons or 10 percent of the total county population. This group represents almost one in ten adults between the ages of 16 to 64.

Persons with disabilities and persons of low income represent some overlap but also some difference. The Census Bureau documents that presence of a disability is associated with lower levels of income. Those with a low relative income nationally (less than half the median) were reported as 13.3 percent among those with no disability, 30.4 percent among those with any disability and 42.2 percent among those with a severe disability.13

The Aging Population

The senior population has a variety of characteristics of interest to this discussion. The individuals over age 65 in the 2000 census numbered 926,970 or 10 percent of the total Los Angeles County population. This is below the statewide average of 12 percent. Low-income seniors, defined by income in relation to household size, are 1 percent of the total county population and represent 10 percent of the senior population, age 65 and older. Seniors with disabilities were also identified in the 2000 census, a self-reported category and reflecting the individual’s perception. Four percent of seniors characterized themselves as disabled, just fewer than 400,000 persons.

11

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Income, Earnings and Poverty Data from the 2005 American Community Survey. B.H Webster, A. Bishaw. Washington, DC, August 2006, p. 20.

12

Income, Earnings and Poverty Data from the 2005 American Community Survey, p. 22. 13

A third group of potentially vulnerable seniors are those who are older than 75 years of age and those who are older than 85 years of age. Advanced age is associated with increased rates of disability.14 About 324,000 seniors are between the ages of 75 and 84 and another 106,000 aged 85 and older.

The physiology of aging identifies age 75 as the age point at which the natural effects of the aging processes are increasingly likely to impinge upon lifestyle, health status and general well- being. Statistically, there is increased incidence of disease processes, of falling, that result in mobility impairments and of the consequences of stroke and heart disease, as well as various chronic conditions or degenerative processes that can limit mobility.15.

For persons age 85 and older, these rates of increased incidence of chronic disease and impairment increase more dramatically. This population is likely to have increased special needs and requirements. This group is also the subset of the senior population that is expected to grow at the fastest rate with the aging of the baby boomers.

The data suggest that between 1.8 million and 2.1 million Los Angeles County residents in 2000 were among the target populations of seniors, persons with disabilities and persons of low income.

Future Population Projections

Anticipating future population impacts, SCAG [Southern California Association of Governments] population projections for the region are presented in Table A-2. SCAG estimates that the 2020 population of Los Angeles County will be 11.5 million and by 2030, will be 12.2 million persons. These projections are constructed from mathematical models that anticipate changes in the senior population and other demographic subgroups, but are also informed by input from stakeholders of SCAG’s 187 cities.

Table A-2

TARGET POPULATIONS for JARC, New Freedoms, 5310 Programs -- POPULATION PROJECTIONS

2010 2020 2030

Total Los Angeles Population 9,519,338 10,718,007 11,501,884 12,221,779

628,422 750,260 7% 805,132 7% 855,525 7%

to 940,899 to 1,071,801 10% to 1,150,188 10%to 1,222,178 10% Seniors age 65 and older, including oldest seniors,

85+ (1% of total population), seniors with disabilities (4% of total population) and low-income seniors (1% total population).

825,1989% of total

population 1,071,801

10% _1,265,207 11% _1,466,613 12%

1.5 million 1.8 million 17% 2.1 million 18% 2.3 million19%

1,766,097 to 2,143,601 20% to 2,415,396 21% to 2,688,79122% 2000 Census 7% to 10% of total population 16% to 19% of total population

SCAG Population Projections for Total Population

Low Income adults and/or adults with disabilities, ages 16 to 64

Straight projections of the adult low-income population and the disability adult populations, in combination with an increasing senior population, suggest the high end of these target population ranges grow from 2.1 million in 2010, to 2.3 million in 2020, to 2.7 million in 2030.

14_{U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P23-194, Population Profile of the} United States, 1997. Washington DC, 1998, p. 50-51.

15

The low income population has remained fairly constant over the past 40 to 50 years, as proportion of the Los Angeles region’s total population. It therefore seems unlikely that this group that is 10 percent of the total population and 15 percent of the adult population will change. 16 It was projected forward then as a constant proportion, within a range that includes the population with disabilities. The disability population may be an increasing proportion, as increases in the number of adults with disabilities are suggested by evidence in the public health literature that predicts increases among younger cohorts due to potentially rising obesity rates.17 However, for purposes of this analysis, such possible growth is represented within the range of adults age 16 to 64 inclusive of those of limited means.

Given senior population characteristics, these ranges increase in the proportion of the total population, from 16 percent to 19 percent in 2000, to potentially up to 19 percent to 22 percent of the 2030 population. California’s Department of Aging identifies Los Angeles County as among those counties that will realize an increase in its elderly population, age 60 and older, between 1990 and 2020 somewhere between 50 percent and 100 percent. In other words, the senior population, over that thirty year period will increase in size by half again as many, and up to almost twice as many. Similarly, the California Dept. of Aging anticipates that Los Angeles County’s oldest old, those age 85 and older, will increase by 50 percent to 150 percent during that same 30 year span.18 At 105,000 persons in 2000, this population is likely to at least double by 2030.

There is some demographic evidence, at the national level, that the proportion of seniors in poverty is decreasing as the baby-boomers age. This suggests that while tomorrow’s seniors will be increasing significantly in quantity, they may also be more able to offset the costs of the services they require.19

Demand Estimation for Specialized Trips

Table A-3 presents an estimate of the potential trip demand for specialized transit trips that could be hypothesized for these target populations, drawing upon trip making rates and utilization rates in various national research efforts.

Drawing upon the population estimates presented in the preceding tables, Table A-3 utilizes average daily trip rates developed through national research to establish a total level of trips these groups may be making on typical weekdays. The trip rates are annualized to establish annual trips made. Assumptions are then applied as to the proportion of trips made on transit. Of those, the potential level of trip need for specialized transportation assistance is estimated using information provided in the stakeholder survey.

16

Choi, Simon, Ph.D., AICP, SCAG Chief Demographer, Personal Communication, March 22, 2007 17

www.pubmed.gov, website of the national Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health, as

cited in SACOG Region Senior and Mobility Study, 2007, p. 10. 18

California Department of Aging, Statistics and Demographics

www.aging.ca.gov./html/stats/mapnarrative_2.html and narrative_3.html 19

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P23-194, Population Profile of the United States, 1997. Washington DC, 1998, p. 4.

Table A-3

Estimated Annual Trips, All Trips (Trip Rate * Target

Population * 255 days) Annual Trips Potentially on Public Transit (Annual Trips * Public Transit Rate) Annual Trips Requiring Special Assistance @ 4% of Public Transit Trips Adults (age 16 – 64) Disabled population at 10% of adult population (628,422) to 592,916,157 50,397,873 2,015,915

Low Income Population at 15% of adult population ages 18-64 (940,889) 3.7\1 887,728,772 8.5%\3 75,456,946 3,018,278 Seniors (ages 65+)

Seniors low-income at 10% of age 65+ (93,555)

81,112,185 3%\5 2,433,366 97,335

Seniors with disabilities at 26% of

age 65+ (212,452) 184,195,884 3%\5 5,525,877 221,035

Seniors age 75+ when mobility issues become increasingly critical (429,420)

2.1\2 372,307,140 2%\1 7,446,143 297,846

All seniors age 65+ (825,198) 3.4\1 715,446,666 3%\5 21,463,400 858,536

965,223,297 57,844,016 2,313,761

to 1,603,175,438 to 96,920,346 3,876,814

[1] Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2001 National Household Travel Survey - Trip rates for 65+, Not Employed; Medical Conditions Limiting Travel [2] National Cooperative Highway Research Program "Estimating Impacts of the Aging Population on Transit Ridership", p. 17 (2006)

[3] Sacramento Area Council of Governments Household Travel Survey 1999, Senior & Disabled Mobility Study, 2006, p. 9. [4 Freedom to Travel, U.S. Dot Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2002)

[5] Transportation Research Report, TCRP Report 82: Improving Public Transit Options for Older Persons (2002) and 2001 National Household Travel Survey (6%)

52% of senior population

\1

Target Population Range for Los Angeles County

Between 1.06 million and 1.77