Does education make a difference to the total population size?

Rapid population growth is practically inevitable in each province in the past and at least in the near future. Even though we assume that each province in Pakistan will manage to achieve replacement fertility levels by 2025 under NG scenario, the pop- ulation of each province would grow and almost double by the middle of the century due to the population momentum. Table 6.3 shows the total population size for each province of Pakistan from 2010 to 2060. A first look at the results show that (See Table 6.3) even though fertility will decline significantly by 2025-30 in all four provinces in Pakistan, the population would still be increasing–from 101.3 million to 155.9 million from 2010 to 2060 in Punjab, from 40.7 million to 67.1 millions in Sindh, from 24.0 million to 46.6 million in KPK and from 7.7 million to 13.9 million in Balochistan under trend education scenario and medium fertility assumptions. This population momentum would lead to further increase in the school age and working-age popula- tion for each province in Pakistan— meaning that more children will be enrolled in school, there is a need for more infrastructure for schools, particularly in rural areas in less developed provinces. Although, each province will manage to achieve be- low replacement fertility (Table 4.1) in National goal scenario, the population in each province would still grow substantially from 2010 to 2060 (See table 6.3). Educational attainment could have a profound effect on the total population size of each province; the difference of 3 million people from constant education to the national education goal scenario would attain in Punjab under the national goal scenario in 2060, one million different in Sindh and KPK and 0.3 million difference in Balochistan would have achieved under the similar scenario.

6.3.2

Age and Sex Population distribution by level of education

Figure 6.1 illustrates the population pyramid by age, sex and level of education of Pun- jab in 2010 and the results of three alternative scenarios of education in 2060, under

the assumption of two fertility scenarios (Fm and Fng) and two educational scenarios (Et, Eng). In 2010, the pyramid (Figure 6.1 and 6.2) undoubtedly shows the improve- ment in educational attainment over the generation of the people in Punjab and KPK. The younger cohorts are better educated than the older cohorts, equally for both male and female. In 2010, 55 percent of females in Punjab and 69 percent in KPK have never been enrolled in the school whereas, the proportion of male who have no formal education was 37 percent in Punjab and 39 percent in KPK. The situation is worse at higher level of education-the proportion of male who have at-least secondary edu- cation was 36 percent in Punjab and KPK, whereas 21 percent for females in Punjab and 12 percent in KPK have at least secondary education in 2010. According to the trend scenario-which assume that all future cohorts benefit from the increase in an enrollment ratio as observed over the last two decade-the pace of change would not be enough to ensure that all children enroll into primary education in Punjab in 2015-20 as can be seen of the age group 5-9 with no education (Figure 6.1). The similar pattern in the age group 5-9 for male and female will be observed in all provinces (Figures not shown here). Consequently, the MDGs would not be achieved for all provinces in Pak- istan in 2015-20 and not even in 2060. This needs a call for the imperative attention to investment in basic education on the emergency basis to ensure that more children will be enrolled in school in all provinces, particularly in rural areas of each province. The proportion of female with no education in Punjab would decline to 22 percent and 35 percent in KPK in 2060 and 17 percent for male in Punjab and KPK according to trend education and medium fertility scenario. This is far from 15 and 22 percent for female and 10 percent for male in Punjab and KPK respectively—that would be achieved in 2060 under National education and fertility goals scenarios in Punjab. The situation of educational attainment is deteriorating in Balochistan, particularly for females, where 76 percent of female and 53 percent of male in 2010 were never enroll in school. In 2060, the proportion that never attends school would become 42 percent for female and 33 percent for male under trend education and medium fertility goals (Figure has not presented here for Balochistan).

The figure 6.1 and 6.2 illustrate that the trend education scenario would not be enough to remove the gender gap in all provinces, which persists at all levels of education. In 2010, the proportion of female with no education aged 20-24 years has twice than the share of uneducated male in Punjab and Sindh. Whereas, the gender gap has widened in KPK and Balochistan in the age group 20-24 for no education categories (58 and 67 percent of females and 18 and 33 percent of males in KPK and Balochistan were never attended the school respectively). The gender gap at the primary level has been pervasive in all provinces in Pakistan. In 2010, the proportion of females with primary education in age group 5-9 was 74 percent in Punjab and 58 percent in KPK, while for males the proportion was 80 percent and 72 percent in Punjab and KPK respectively. The gender gap would not be eliminated in 2060 at the primary level in all provinces. Interestingly, gender disparities would be reversed at the primary level in Punjab—where female enrollments in last few years have been tremendous and even more so for girls than boys in future (92 percent girls and 85 percent boys in primary level in Punjab in 2060).

Figure 6.1: Population pyramid by age,sex and educational attainment for Punjab in 2010 and 2060; Source: Own Calculation

Figure 6.2: Population Pyramid by age, sex and level of educational attainment for KPK in 2010-2060; Source: Own Calculation