Mortality and Migration

The age and sex specific mortality and migration rates8 follows the latest medium variant of the United Nations world population prospects (2010). The mortality dif- ferentials are set according to findings of KC et al., 20109 . Age and sex specific net international migration figures are further distributed proportionally among edu- cational categories.

6_{Transition are set in age group 5-9 for primary, 10-14 for Secondary and 15-19 for tertiary educa-}

tion

7_{In fact, the government has not formulated specific numerical goals for secondary and tertiary}

education. The targets are interpretations of the wish of the government to increase participation in higher level of education. The policies for education and population has formulated at federal level, there is no specific targets set by the government of Pakistan at provincial level.

8_{UN 2010 provides the total number of migrants but not the age and sex specific structure which we}

estimated through a residual analysis.

9_{According to K.C. et al. (2010), the life expectancy at age 15 of the population in the no-education}

category is on average one year less than that of the population in the primary education category, three years less than that of the population in the secondary education category and five years less than that of population in the tertiary education category.

Table 5.5: Scenario Matrix

Education

Constant (Ec) Trend (Et) National Education goal (Eng) Fertility

High (Fh) FhEc FhEt FhEng

Medium (Fm) FmEc FmEt FmEng

National Fertility Goal (Fng) FngEc FngEt FngEng

Table 5.6: Total Population (in million) of Pakistan from 2010 to 2060 under different educa- tion and fertility scenarios

Fertility education

Base year Constant Trend NG 2010 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 High 174 249 345 249 341 248 320 Medium 233 279 233 278 233 271 NG 235 267 235 266 234 259

Source: Own Calculation

Table 5.5 shows the matrix of the nine scenarios derived from the different fertility (3 sets) and education (3 sets) assumptions, aiming at studying the concomitant ef- fect of fertility and education on future population and human capital. Due to space limitation, each scenario cannot be mentioned.

5.4

Results and Discussion

Rapid population growth rate is unavoidable in Pakistan, at least in the near future, as shown in Table 5.6. Even if we assume that Pakistan will manage to achieve below replacement fertility in the low variant – TFR of 1.3 in 2055-60, the population would still grow significantly from 174 million in 2010 to 259 million under the national goal education scenario. A doubling (to 345 million in 2060) of population would only occur in the case of the High fertility scenario, where fertility is declining slowly to reach 2.3 in 2055-60 and enrollment stagnates (Constant education scenario). Ed- ucation attainment could have a profound effect on the total population: Under the High fertility scenario, if Pakistan would achieve the national educational goals, then the total population would be 25 million less compared to the Constant education sce- nario – or 7 per cent in 2055-60. A lesser difference of 19 million in 2060 is found in the total population between the scenario where Pakistan achieves its education and fertility goals, and that would be more realistic, where it achieves Medium fertility and follows the Trend in education development: 259 million vs. 278 million.

Figure 5.2 shows the population pyramids by age, sex and four educational level of Pakistan in 2010 and the results of three alternative scenarios for education in 2060, under the assumption of a Medium fertility scenario. In 2010, the pyramid clearly shows the improvements in school enrollments over the last three decades: The younger cohorts are better educated than the older ones, both for men and women. In 2010, 50 per cent of the working age population (WAP) – aged 20-64 which accounted for 49 percent of the total population –– had not received any education: one-third of the male WAP and two-thirds of the female WAP (see also Figure 5.3. According to the Trend education scenario (Figure 5.2), which assumes that all future cohorts benefit from increase in enrollment ratios as observed over the recent past, the pace of change would not be enough to ensure that all children enroll into primary education as can be seen from the share with no education in age groups 5-9 and 10-14. Conse- quently, Pakistan would not be able to achieve the Millennium Developments Goals (MDGs) in 2015, and not even in 2060. Therefore, this calls for an intensification

of investments in basic education to ensure that more children can enroll in schools, particularly in rural and remote areas, especially for girls. The proportion of the WAP with no education would decline to 20 percent in 2060 – 15 per cent for males and 23 per cent for female, based on the Trend education scenario.

This is far from the 7 per cent – 5 per cent for male and 9 per cent for female – that would be achieved under the NG scenario. The momentum of education diffusion is clearly visible on the pyramid for that particular optimistic scenario, where still in 2060, the population above 50 years of age still entails a large share of uneducated people. Lack of education often results in illiteracy and the spread of adult literacy campaign would need to intensify in order to bring literacy to the population who have never or barely been enrolled, and are beyond schooling age, as was effectively im- plemented in India. Historically adult literacy campaigns have not been a priority of the government of Pakistan although some initiatives have been launched in the 1980s and 1990s (Goujon and Wazir, 2011).

On the other hand, there will be significant increase in the share of the WAP with a primary education, from 14 per cent in 2010 to 36 per cent 2060, according to Trend scenario (see figure 5.3). Improvements will be significant for the share of the popula- tion with a tertiary education, which will triple over the projection period from 11 per cent in 2010 to 37 per cent in 2060 under the NG scenario (EngFm). The projection re- sults show the overall long time horizon needed to see the effect of the implementation of higher education in Pakistan. For instance, the Trend scenario shows a slight in- crease in the proportion of highly educated – secondary and tertiary education together – in the WAP, from 36 percent in 2010 to 46 per cent in 2060, while the corresponding proportion for NG scenario will be 67 per cent in 2060.

Figure 5.2 also shows that the Trend education scenario would not be enough to re- move the gender gap which persists at all levels. For example, the proportion of une- ducated women aged 20-24 years in 2010 is twice than the share of uneducated men. One out of four women aged 15 and over will be out of school, while the proportion for men is “only” 16 per cent. Under the NG scenario, the proportion of uneducated women of aged 15 and over would be 16 per cent compared to 8 per cent for men in 2060, all due to the momentum of education diffusion. The impact of educational im- provement is clearly visible for secondary and tertiary education in the NG scenario, which implements rapid improvements in education (i.e. universal primary educa- tion). The gender gap that was noticeable regarding secondary education in 2010 will persist although it will be attenuated. In 2010, the population with some secondary education in female aged 20-64 years was 6 million (5 percent) compared to 15 mil- lion (34 percent) for male. In 2060, according to the Trend education scenario, the WAP would be 18 million (21 per cent) and 28 million (34 per cent) for female and male respectively. The future educational attainment of the population under the edu- cation Trend scenario reflects the education policy orientations of the government of Pakistan in recent years. In 2010, the share of tertiary educated women of working age was only 5 per cent (3.2 million), and corresponding share for men was 14 per cent (6.4 million). The gender gap would be eliminated in 2060, based on the Trend scenario; the share of female and male in the WAP with a tertiary education would

Figure 5.2: Population pyramid by age, sex and educational attainment for Pakistan in 2010 and in 2060 according to three education scenarios, Constant, Trend and NG, and Medium fertility variant; Source: Own Calculation

reach 18 per cent (15 million) and 20 per cent (16 million) respectively – which re- flects that women have benefited from an increased access to tertiary education in the recent past. Still, the lack of investments in female education in the past will hamper the development of Pakistan far into the future as it is hindering the full participation of women in the labor force. In 2008, according to the Labor Force Survey, women accounted only for 20 per cent of the active labor force.

This calls for a need to increase the scope of the adult educational campaign to bring literacy to almost all the working-age population in the country, as has been success- fully implemented in India, and to a lesser extent in Egypt. Historically, tackling adult literacy has not been a priority for the government of Pakistan, although some initia- tives have been launched. During the Ayub era (1959-1969), literacy programs were run under the community development program at the village level. In the 1980s, the Literacy and Mass Education Commission (LAMEC) were set and started a new adult literacy campaign through the “Nai Roshni School." Under this initiative, many adult literacy schools were set up all around the country. Furthermore, under the slogan “each one teaches one”, it was mandatory for those persons who had passed interme- diate exams to convert one illiterate to literate. The Nai Roshni program taught a few thousands adults how to read and write, but it was a mixed success, mainly because of corruption, following its termination in the 1990s during the first Bhutto regime. A benchmark effort was launched in 2002 during the Musharaf regime which estab-

Figure 5.3: Share of working age population (20-64) by level of education in Pakistan for 2010-2060, different education and fertility scenarios; Source: Own Calculation

lished the National Commission for Human Development10 (NCHD) at the federal and provincial level to set up adult literacy centers in local communities to provide basic literacy skills to individuals (especially women) between the ages of 11 and 45, who were either never enrolled before or dropped out of school before acquiring lit- eracy skills. So far the 120,263 adult literacy centers of the NCHD have provided 2.5 million adults, 90 percent of which are females with literacy skills.