Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emission

Bangladesh has one of the lowest per capita commercial energy production rates in the world. Existing grid electricity supply hardly covers 25 percent of the population. Power supply is not reliable and power cuts are frequent. In order to meet the

electricity demand in urban areas, electricity to the rural areas is not provided during peak hours, which has profound economic and social impact on the rural population as well as small-scale businesses in the peri-urban areas. Industrial production and expansion, and commercial activities are disrupted through chronic shortages of electricity. Existing projections of supply generation leaves the bulk of the rural population excluded from conventional grid electricity connection.

Domestic cooking consumes the largest proportion of biomass fuels (65 per cent), in rural as well as urban areas (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2004). There are around 20 million rural households in Bangladesh, most of which use traditional stoves for cooking. The total consumption of biomass only for cooking purposes is estimated to be 40 million tons. Traditional cooking stoves, mostly used in the rural areas, have efficiencies between 5 and 15 percent. With the introduction of improved stoves, as much as 20 million tonnes of biomass can be saved in the country

(Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2004).

Observations in Bangladesh on the impact of climate change indicate that there has been little or no increase in the average annual temperature in the country over the last four decades. On the other hand, the records on rainfall showed definite trends to increase. The increased rainfall in the future is expected to lead to increased surface run-offs with severe consequences for flooding in the country. About 11% of the area of the country and 5% of the present population are likely to be under threat if a 45 cm relative rise in sea level occurs by 2070 (Sustainable Development

Networking Program, 2001). For a 1-meter rise the respective figures are estimated to be 21% and 14%. Protection from floods is already a major government policy but it may assume even higher priority.

Agriculture, apparently, will benefit somewhat from the climate change. Particularly, it is expected that there may be 5 - 10% increase in the yield of rice. However, model

simulations indicate that due to the interplay of other factors like economic policies and prices, the realized yield increase will be much less, 2 - 4% or so. On the other hand, however, the sea level rise will lead to substantial losses in potential rice output by 2070.

Forestry will suffer mainly due to the impact of the sea level rise, which is expected to inundate 75% of the Sundarbans, the main mangrove forest of the country, in case of a 45 cm sea level rise. In the other case, it will vanish forever. The main policy planks in the above situation must be in the management of the water resources and protection of the coastal areas.

In terms of emissions Bangladesh ranks among the lowest both on a total and per capita basis. This does not mean, however, that Bangladesh should not take mitigation measures to lower the emission levels. Particularly, it is generally believed that there is widespread inefficiency in production, distribution and consumption of energy. This inefficiency exists in case of both biomass-based energy and commercial energy. Very substantial savings in energy use particularly can be expected if more efficient equipment and implementation could be

popularized. In case of mitigation measures related to methane emission, possibly not much can be done immediately without a long-term research effort. The CDM can play a major role in this.

Technical assistance will be needed most in assessment and analyses of emission related research and technologies. Among the adaptation and mitigation measures, the technical assistance will be required most for assessment of the energy-

efficiencies of various industrial processes and identification of the suitable technologies for technology transfer and adoption.

6.3.1 Emission Inventory Projections

Bangladesh has one of the lowest per capita total energy consumption rates in the world at 4.0 million Btu versus US value of 339.1 million Btu in 2002 (EIA, 2005). Moreover, from the point of view of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions there are the

comes from biomass, (ii) More than 66 percent of the commercial energy comes from natural gas, and (iii) The single largest user of primary energy (other than power generation) is the urea fertilizer industry which uses natural gas and state-of- the-art technology (Planning Commission, 2004). The two most significant

subsectors of commercial energy consumption are power generation and non-energy use. Of the total commercial energy consumed, power generation’s share was 30 percent in 1995 and on the demand side one single industry (four urea fertilizer plants) consumed approximately 22 percent of the total commercial energy (ADB, 1998). In the traditional fuel category - the significant subsectors are residential cooking and industrial process heat (paddy parboiling and brickmaking). The other significant GHGs emitting sources are diesel for transport, kerosene for rural lighting, and coal for the manufacture of bricks.

6.3.2 Energy Sources

Table 6.6 shows the primary energy sources in Bangladesh for the year 1994-95. Most recent sector and sources wise data are not available due to access limitation. There is a heavy reliance upon traditional biomass fuels but the proportion of commercial fuels is gradually increasing, mainly due to the increased use of natural gas. Commercial energy accounts for only 35% of the total energy consumed in the year 1994-95.

Table 6.7 shows the sectorwise consumption of commercial energy in Bangladesh for the year 2000. The commercial energy share has increased from 35% to 44% of the total energy consumed in the year 1995 to 2000.

Traditional fuels consisting of crop waste, firewood and animal waste are the

predominant fuels for rural cooking. Rural industries also consume a large amount of biomass. A rural activity that consumes a significant amount of biomass is paddy parboiling. Brick manufacturing also consumes a large amount of biomass fuels.

Table 6.6: Energy Consumption in the Year 1994-95 (million GJ)

Sector/Sources Coal Oil Natural

Gas Total Commercial Biomass Power generation 7.40 101.10 108.50 Residential 18.20 20.23 38.43 428.30 Commercial 0.40 0.72 4.08 5.20 1.83 Industrial 10.55 6.57 26.97 44.09 115.40 Transport 49.76 49.76 Agriculture/others 18.44 18.44

Non-energy use (Urea Fertilizer Production)

89.47 89.47

Losses and own use 1.86 2.90 4.76

Total 10.95 102.95 244.75 358.65 545.53

Note: In addition, 608 GWh of hydro electricity was generated. Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), 1997.

Table 6.7: Sectorwise Final Consumption of Commercial Energy Consumption in the year 2000 (thousand tons of oil equivalent)

Year/ Sector Domestic/ residential Industrial Commercial /service Transport Agriculture & others Fertiliser Total 2000 1064 993 149 1006 435 2245 5892

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), 2002.

At present the only domestic energy resource of the country is natural gas. It is therefore not surprising that 68% of the commercial energy requirement is met by natural gas. The government has an active policy of substitution of oil and coal by natural gas. In fact, oil and coal are used only in activities where it is not convenient to use natural gas, such as the transport and agriculture sectors. As can be seen in the Table 6.7, nearly 50% of oil is consumed in the transport sector. The small amount of oil used in the power sector is due to the fact that the western part of the country has no gas. Since 2003, gas through pipeline is available in the western zone of the country and it is expected that oil-based power generation will cease. The highly unreliable power supply forces many industrial units to generate their own electricity during outage. In areas not served by gas pipelines, oil is used for this purpose. A large amount of oil is used for running irrigation pumps. The high consumption of oil in the residential sector is kerosene used for lighting.

According to Bala (1997) biomass fuels constitute the major energy sources for rural people. A major share of the fuel is consumed for cooking using traditional stoves which have efficiency less than 10%. Most of the biomass comes from agricultural